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Crypto VC: Token investing and the next bull run with Digital Wave Finance

Cointelegraph sits down with Digital Wave Finance to talk about investment strategies and what could catalyze the next bull run.
Venture…

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Cointelegraph sits down with Digital Wave Finance to talk about investment strategies and what could catalyze the next bull run.

Venture capital has been a key driver for myriad startups in the blockchain space. Founders know how competitive it can be to secure valuable VC funding that can keep the lights on and employees paid during the critical first days of a new project.

In a new interview series, Cointelegraph sits down with executives at some of the most active funds investing in the crypto space to understand their perspectives, hear about their successes and failures, and find out what gets them excited about a new project in the Web3 space.

This week, Cointelegraph spoke with Andrei Grachev, co-founder of crypto trading entity Digital Wave Finance (DWF) and managing partner of market maker and multistage Web3 investment firm DWF Labs. DWF Labs has been highly active since late 2022, having invested in the Telegram Open Network (TON), Orbs, Radix, Crypto GPT (now Layer AI) and others.

Cointelegraph: It feels like DWF Labs emerged from nowhere and started aggressively taking over the industry. Tell us more about the history of the fund and the background of the partners.

Andrei Grachev: DWF Labs started operating in late 2021, founded by experienced partners from DWF, a highly successful high-frequency trading entity that had been operating since 2018. We recognized the potential of blockchain technology and wanted to explore investment opportunities in the industry. After making several small investments and token allocations, we refined our investment strategy and risk tolerance. Since then, we have been actively investing in promising projects and providing long-term financial support on a regular basis.

CT: DWF Labs invests exclusively in tokens. Many players in the industry consider this approach to be market-making. Can you explain the rationale behind this decision and why you believe investing in tokens is the best approach?

AG: First of all, let me clarify that every project we work on has different deal components. While some involve pure venture investment, others may include token purchases. Over the past 12 to 18 months, we have seen an increasing number of market makers entering the investment space. While I cannot speak for the entire industry, it appears to me that market makers offer significant support to projects that is crucial to their growth.

For example, market makers typically have established relationships with exchanges, and they can help projects with listing introductions. However, it is up to the exchange to accept the recommendations or not. Another advantage of working with market makers is that they can provide liquidity support to tokens when it is needed. In other words, market makers offer value beyond just executing trades, and this is why we believe that investing in tokens is the best approach.

CT: How do you evaluate the risks associated with investing in tokens, and what steps do you take to mitigate those risks? Are there any particular metrics or criteria you use to assess the potential of a token?

AG: As a Web3 investment firm, we have developed various investment theses over time to evaluate the risks and potential of a project. While we cannot fully disclose our current investment strategy, we have identified several verticals that we are interested in supporting. On our website, we categorize our investments into nine macro-categories, allowing us to diversify our risks within each vertical by selecting a few projects with significantly different attributes.

For example, if we identify a growing vertical where multiple players are developing or building value, we look at the possibility of supporting more than one project. If a project has a clear emphasis on infrastructure, the next project we select might be more focused on the B2B side, and the next one on retail. This approach provides us with a comprehensive coverage of the spectrum of an industry vertical.

When evaluating the potential of a token, we use various metrics and criteria that are specific to each project and vertical. We analyze the market size, competition, team experience and track record, tokenomics, and community engagement, among other factors. We also conduct due diligence and consult with industry experts to ensure that the project has a solid foundation and strong potential for growth. While investing in tokens does carry inherent risks, we believe that a diversified approach combined with thorough research and analysis can help mitigate those risks and generate positive returns for our investors.

Portfolio companies 

CT: What does the ideal portfolio company for DWF look like? What do you prioritize: The idea, personality of a founder, a team or traction?

AG: Our investment portfolio is diverse, but there are a few categories that stand out due to their weight in terms of the number of investments. Decentralized finance and trading, metaverse and GameFi, and infrastructure and enterprise are the categories that seem to have captured our attention the most.

When it comes to prioritizing investment factors, potential market adoption should be the primary consideration. This is because a great idea or product that doesn’t have a large potential user base will not be successful in the long run. Addressable market size is also an important factor, as it helps to determine the potential revenue and growth prospects of a company.

Recent: ETF filings changed the Bitcoin narrative overnight — Ledger CEO

However, even with a large potential market and a great product, the ability of the team to execute is essential for success. A talented and experienced team with a track record of success will increase the likelihood of successful execution and bring the product to market efficiently.

Grachev at the Meta Era Summit 2023. Source: X

Finally, while buzz and hype can be useful indicators of market demand and potential, they can also be misleading and should be taken with a grain of salt. It is important to evaluate the underlying fundamentals and potential for long-term success rather than being swayed solely by hype or trends in the market.

CT: Among others, you invested in TON and EOS. Both projects have a complicated history and a controversial reputation in the industry. What exactly did you find attractive in these projects?

AG: We invested in TON and EOS due to their potential for market adoption and addressable market size. Both projects were highly ambitious and aimed to address fundamental issues within the blockchain industry, such as scalability and usability. We were also impressed with the teams behind each project and their ability to execute on their vision, despite the challenges they faced. While there were certainly controversies and setbacks along the way, we believed that these projects had the potential to make a significant impact in the industry, and we were willing to take the risk. Ultimately, our decision to invest in TON and EOS was based on a thorough analysis of their potential for long-term success, rather than their current buzz or hype status within the industry.

CT: One of your recent investments is Crypto GPT. What is that?

AG: As outlined in our investment thesis, we strive to mitigate risk by diversifying our portfolio within specific industry verticals. This approach allows us to balance potential profits with the possibility of losses. Our investment in Crypto GPT occurred during a period when we were supporting various AI projects. While the initial version of Crypto GPT may not have been impressive, we believed our investment could have facilitated further development and led to something innovative in the market. It is premature to write off the project entirely based on its current implementation. For example, the first iPhone did not have the copy/paste feature, but subsequent iterations improved upon the initial model. The Crypto GPT team is actively developing and launching new products, and we look forward to seeing the results in the long run.

CT: What is the best way for the startup to catch your interest?

AG: Our investment strategy is a combination of various assessment criteria, such as the team, market, traction, competitive landscape and more. As we receive a high volume of funding applications monthly, we prioritize projects that catch our attention with something unique and extraordinary. This is what we would have referred to as the USP, or “unique selling proposition,” in traditional marketing jargon. We value when projects showcase their strengths, whether it be in their community or traction, as it allows us to easily identify potential gems and initiate our due diligence process.

CT: What is your fastest-growing portfolio company?

AG: There are several fast-growing projects in our portfolio, making it challenging to focus on just one when highlighting them. However, some projects have managed to grow their communities tremendously, such as Yield Guild Games, which has accelerated the adoption of GameFi; Conflux, with its signature partnership with China Telecom; and Coin98, which has seen massive adoption in Southeast Asia. Notably, Synthetix is a groundbreaking financial primitive that enables the creation of synthetic assets. Syscoin has been working for years to perfect a solution to the blockchain trilemma, and Fetch.ai offers comprehensive tools for developing, deploying and monetizing applications.

CT: How do you find the best deals?

AG: I have to give credit to my partners and our team, who work tirelessly to stay informed and scout for new projects while evaluating the potential of existing ones. We also attend industry events to connect with the community, which is still very much connected through “decentralized human nodes.” These events provide us with an opportunity to network and expand our connections, which is crucial for discovering promising deals.

CT: Many big names — including a16z, Shima and others — are investing in Web3 gaming, but all the metaverse and gaming projects seem to be overestimated. Decentraland reportedly had just 38 daily “active users” at one point in a $1.3 billion ecosystem. What do you think about Web3 games and metaverses?

AG: We, like other VCs, are keeping a close eye on the Web3 gaming and metaverse spaces. While we see the potential for these projects to revolutionize the gaming and virtual world industries, we also acknowledge the risks and challenges they face. It is true that some projects have been overestimated, but this is a nascent industry, and we are still in the early stages of experimentation. As with any emerging technology, it takes time to develop and gain widespread adoption.

About the industry

CT: How will the industry change in the near future and in the long run?

AG: The industry has grown so big that it is hard to speak about it without diving deep into each of the verticals. For example, it would be impossible to ignore the tremendous impact that AI is bringing to the world. Also, the incredible growth of GameFi has already contributed significantly to growing adoption. And certainly, DeFi is here to stay.

Decentralized exchanges have been the talk of the day ever since FTX went bankrupt. More recently, there seems to be a renaissance of memecoins. There has been a tremendous amount of building behind the noise of token price. We are always interested in supporting builders. At the moment, we are particularly keen to support infrastructure projects, from layers to IoT and real-world assets. We believe that these projects will play a critical role in shaping the future of the industry.

CT: Some critics of token investing argue that many tokens are not real investments but speculative assets subject to price manipulation and volatility, which negatively influence the entire industry. How do you respond to this criticism, and what evidence can you provide to support the idea that token investing is a legitimate form of investment?

AG: Token investing is often criticized as a form of speculation that lacks legitimacy as an investment vehicle. However, tokens are attractive to both retail and institutional investors because of their liquidity. Tokens can be viewed as the next evolution of shares traded on a stock exchange. In traditional markets, the democratization of access to the stock market through platforms like Robinhood and eToro has given retail investors the ability to organize themselves into communities that can further their investment thesis beyond the market rationale. The growth of memecoins is a prime example of this community approach to crypto investment.

Total memecoin trading volumes. Weekly volume in black. Cumulative volume in green. Source: Dune

While some memecoins have evolved into projects with ambitious ecosystems, such as Floki, others exist solely as speculative tools. Ultimately, investing is about profit, and an investor who doesn’t want to profit is called a philanthropist. Therefore, token investing should be evaluated based on its potential for generating returns, as well as its potential risks and rewards. Some tokens will generate handsome profits based on their technological value, while others will thrive solely due to their growing community of enthusiasts.

CT: The recent collapses of FTX, 3AC and others didn’t add any trust or optimism to the crypto space, while recent events indicate that traditional financial institutions and the current financial system overall are in crisis. In your opinion, what’s the best way to overcome these challenges?

AG: Finance is a highly complex field, at a crossroads between the economy on the one hand and government regulation on the other. Financial institutions are a vital part of the economy in day-to-day terms, and it is unfortunate when such institutions fail to comply with regulations or intentionally implement malpractices.

As for overcoming challenges, there are a few approaches that could be taken. Firstly, increasing transparency and accountability within the industry is crucial. This can be achieved through regulation and self-policing by the industry itself. Secondly, embracing technological innovation and new business models could lead to more efficient and inclusive financial systems. Lastly, educating the public and promoting financial literacy is essential in building trust and confidence in the industry. Overall, a combination of these approaches could lead to a more resilient, trustworthy financial system.

CT: This is a fast-growing multibillion-dollar industry, but still, for the general public, it might look like something related to illicit activities such as money laundering. What can change this perception?

AG: This concern seems outdated, as over the past few years, there has been significant adoption of blockchain technology and Web3. Many portfolio companies have created a positive impact for communities globally. For example, World Mobile Token disrupts the trillion-dollar telecommunications industry by enabling connectivity for everyone through a sharing economy and distributing network ownership. [...] It’s essential to focus on builders and the real value they bring to the world to dispel negative perceptions about the crypto industry.

CT: What topics in the industry are the hottest nowadays? Just 1.5 years ago, nonfungible tokens were everywhere. Now, every primary protocol has its own NFT marketplace but very few users. Are NFTs gone, or do you expect them to evolve into something? What’s the next big thing?

AG: Undeniably, NFTs took the world by storm, demonstrating that massive crypto adoption is possible. Although their initial use case was closely related to self-expression, NFTs represented a mere speculative tool for some. In other words, the use case was not the most solid to build upon, but it was indeed a good starting point. Now, we see many more innovative use cases in NFTs, and we are sure that many more will come very soon.

For example, with the advent of advanced AI engines for art creation, the ability to launch a new NFT collection is no longer limited to those with the technical skills to execute; rather, the opportunity has been democratized to empower anyone with an idea to execute rapidly and easily. This simplification and democratization is already spilling over into no-code development, gaming and entertainment more broadly, like music and filmmaking. Trading will also be significantly impacted by AI integration, and we are already seeing some projects emerging in this field.

CT: In your opinion, what could catalyze the next bull run?

AG: GameFi will continue to lead in mass adoption as the lowest-hanging fruit. What is particularly interesting will be to see how AI integrations bring into existence a new breed of extremely interactive gaming experiences. For example, AI-driven nonplayer characters will have emotions and personalities of their own and will interact with players far beyond their scripted scope of existence. Therefore, we should keep a close eye on how AI will impact all industries.

CT: There are alarmists who think AI will “steal jobs” and positive thinkers who are sure it will make our lives better and easier. What is your point of view? What significant changes can AI bring to the crypto industry?

AG: The idea that AI will steal jobs is real, but in more practical terms, people who know how to master AI integration will be replacing other people’s jobs. AI, on its own, is not going to steal anyone’s job unless someone programs it to do so. There might be many ethical repercussions related to the first outcome of AI integrations. It is not too far-fetched to imagine AI being regulated in a similar way to finance, to a certain extent.

Magazine: 6 Questions for JW Verret — the blockchain professor who’s tracking the money

As for the positive impact of AI, it has the potential to bring significant change to the crypto industry. AI can be used for advanced data analysis and predictive modeling, helping traders make informed decisions and identify market trends. It can also be used to enhance security measures, detecting and preventing fraud and cyberattacks. Additionally, AI can assist in developing more efficient and effective blockchain protocols, leading to faster and more scalable networks. Overall, I believe AI will play a crucial role in the growth and development of the crypto industry, and its impact will be mostly positive if implemented ethically and responsibly.

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Tight inventory and frustrated buyers challenge agents in Virginia

With inventory a little more than half of what it was pre-pandemic, agents are struggling to find homes for clients in Virginia.

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No matter where you are in the state, real estate agents in Virginia are facing low inventory conditions that are creating frustrating scenarios for their buyers.

“I think people are getting used to the interest rates where they are now, but there is just a huge lack of inventory,” said Chelsea Newcomb, a RE/MAX Realty Specialists agent based in Charlottesville. “I have buyers that are looking, but to find a house that you love enough to pay a high price for — and to be at over a 6.5% interest rate — it’s just a little bit harder to find something.”

Newcomb said that interest rates and higher prices, which have risen by more than $100,000 since March 2020, according to data from Altos Research, have caused her clients to be pickier when selecting a home.

“When rates and prices were lower, people were more willing to compromise,” Newcomb said.

Out in Wise, Virginia, near the westernmost tip of the state, RE/MAX Cavaliers agent Brett Tiller and his clients are also struggling to find suitable properties.

“The thing that really stands out, especially compared to two years ago, is the lack of quality listings,” Tiller said. “The slightly more upscale single-family listings for move-up buyers with children looking for their forever home just aren’t coming on the market right now, and demand is still very high.”

Statewide, Virginia had a 90-day average of 8,068 active single-family listings as of March 8, 2024, down from 14,471 single-family listings in early March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Altos Research. That represents a decrease of 44%.

Virginia-Inventory-Line-Chart-Virginia-90-day-Single-Family

In Newcomb’s base metro area of Charlottesville, there were an average of only 277 active single-family listings during the same recent 90-day period, compared to 892 at the onset of the pandemic. In Wise County, there were only 56 listings.

Due to the demand from move-up buyers in Tiller’s area, the average days on market for homes with a median price of roughly $190,000 was just 17 days as of early March 2024.

“For the right home, which is rare to find right now, we are still seeing multiple offers,” Tiller said. “The demand is the same right now as it was during the heart of the pandemic.”

According to Tiller, the tight inventory has caused homebuyers to spend up to six months searching for their new property, roughly double the time it took prior to the pandemic.

For Matt Salway in the Virginia Beach metro area, the tight inventory conditions are creating a rather hot market.

“Depending on where you are in the area, your listing could have 15 offers in two days,” the agent for Iron Valley Real Estate Hampton Roads | Virginia Beach said. “It has been crazy competition for most of Virginia Beach, and Norfolk is pretty hot too, especially for anything under $400,000.”

According to Altos Research, the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News housing market had a seven-day average Market Action Index score of 52.44 as of March 14, making it the seventh hottest housing market in the country. Altos considers any Market Action Index score above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market.

Virginia-Beach-Metro-Area-Market-Action-Index-Line-Chart-Virginia-Beach-Norfolk-Newport-News-VA-NC-90-day-Single-Family

Further up the coastline on the vacation destination of Chincoteague Island, Long & Foster agent Meghan O. Clarkson is also seeing a decent amount of competition despite higher prices and interest rates.

“People are taking their time to actually come see things now instead of buying site unseen, and occasionally we see some seller concessions, but the traffic and the demand is still there; you might just work a little longer with people because we don’t have anything for sale,” Clarkson said.

“I’m busy and constantly have appointments, but the underlying frenzy from the height of the pandemic has gone away, but I think it is because we have just gotten used to it.”

While much of the demand that Clarkson’s market faces is for vacation homes and from retirees looking for a scenic spot to retire, a large portion of the demand in Salway’s market comes from military personnel and civilians working under government contracts.

“We have over a dozen military bases here, plus a bunch of shipyards, so the closer you get to all of those bases, the easier it is to sell a home and the faster the sale happens,” Salway said.

Due to this, Salway said that existing-home inventory typically does not come on the market unless an employment contract ends or the owner is reassigned to a different base, which is currently contributing to the tight inventory situation in his market.

Things are a bit different for Tiller and Newcomb, who are seeing a decent number of buyers from other, more expensive parts of the state.

“One of the crazy things about Louisa and Goochland, which are kind of like suburbs on the western side of Richmond, is that they are growing like crazy,” Newcomb said. “A lot of people are coming in from Northern Virginia because they can work remotely now.”

With a Market Action Index score of 50, it is easy to see why people are leaving the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria market for the Charlottesville market, which has an index score of 41.

In addition, the 90-day average median list price in Charlottesville is $585,000 compared to $729,900 in the D.C. area, which Newcomb said is also luring many Virginia homebuyers to move further south.

Median-Price-D.C.-vs.-Charlottesville-Line-Chart-90-day-Single-Family

“They are very accustomed to higher prices, so they are super impressed with the prices we offer here in the central Virginia area,” Newcomb said.

For local buyers, Newcomb said this means they are frequently being outbid or outpriced.

“A couple who is local to the area and has been here their whole life, they are just now starting to get their mind wrapped around the fact that you can’t get a house for $200,000 anymore,” Newcomb said.

As the year heads closer to spring, triggering the start of the prime homebuying season, agents in Virginia feel optimistic about the market.

“We are seeing seasonal trends like we did up through 2019,” Clarkson said. “The market kind of soft launched around President’s Day and it is still building, but I expect it to pick right back up and be in full swing by Easter like it always used to.”

But while they are confident in demand, questions still remain about whether there will be enough inventory to support even more homebuyers entering the market.

“I have a lot of buyers starting to come off the sidelines, but in my office, I also have a lot of people who are going to list their house in the next two to three weeks now that the weather is starting to break,” Newcomb said. “I think we are going to have a good spring and summer.”

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These Cities Have The Highest (And Lowest) Share Of Unaffordable Neighborhoods In 2024

These Cities Have The Highest (And Lowest) Share Of Unaffordable Neighborhoods In 2024

Authored by Sam Bourgi via CreditNews.com,

Homeownership…

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These Cities Have The Highest (And Lowest) Share Of Unaffordable Neighborhoods In 2024

Authored by Sam Bourgi via CreditNews.com,

Homeownership is one of the key pillars of the American dream. But for many families, the idyllic fantasy of a picket fence and backyard barbecues remains just that—a fantasy.

Thanks to elevated mortgage rates, sky-high house prices, and scarce inventory, millions of American families have been locked out of the opportunity to buy a home in many cities.

To shed light on America’s housing affordability crisis, Creditnews Research ranked the 50 most populous cities by the percentage of neighborhoods within reach for the typical married-couple household to buy a home in.

The study reveals a stark reality, with many cities completely out of reach for the most affluent household type. Not only that, the unaffordability has radically worsened in recent years.

Comparing how affordability has changed since Covid, Creditnews Research discovered an alarming pattern—indicating consistently more unaffordable housing in all but three cities.

Fortunately, there’s still hope for households seeking to put down roots in more affordable cities—especially for those looking beyond Los Angeles, New York, Boston, San Jone, and Miami.

The typical American family has a hard time putting down roots in many parts of the country. In 11 of the top 50 cities, at least 50% of neighborhoods are out of reach for the average married-couple household. The affordability gap has widened significantly since Covid; in fact, no major city has reported an improvement in affordability post-pandemic.

Sam Bourgi, Senior Analyst at Creditnews

Key findings

  • The most unaffordable cities are Los Angeles, Boston, St. Louis, and San Jose; in each city, 100% of neighborhoods are out of reach for for married-couple households earning a median income;

  • The most affordable cities are Cleveland, Hartford, and Memphis—in these cities, the typical family can afford all neighborhoods;

  • None of the top 50 cities by population saw an improvement in affordable neighborhoods post-pandemic;

  • California recorded the biggest spike in unaffordable neighborhoods since pre-Covid;

  • The share of unaffordable neighborhoods has increased the most since pre-Covid in San Jose (70 percentage points), San Diego (from 57.8 percentage points), and Riverside-San Bernardino (51.9 percentage points);

  • Only three cities have seen no change in housing affordability since pre-Covid: Cleveland, Memphis, and Hartford. They’re also the only cities that had 0% of unaffordable neighborhoods before Covid.

Cities with the highest share of unaffordable neighborhoods

With few exceptions, the most unaffordable cities for married-couple households tend to be located in some of the nation’s most expensive housing markets.

Four cities in the ranking have an unaffordability percentage of 100%—indicating that the median married-couple household couldn’t qualify for an average home in any neighborhood.

The following are the cities ranked from the least affordable to the most:

  • Los Angeles, CA: Housing affordability in Los Angeles has deteriorated over the last five years, as average incomes have failed to keep pace with rising property values and elevated mortgage rates. The median household income of married-couple families in LA is $117,056, but even at that rate, 100% of the city’s neighborhoods are unaffordable.

  • St. Louis, MO: It may be surprising to see St. Louis ranking among the most unaffordable housing markets for married-couple households. But a closer look reveals that the Mound City was unaffordable even before Covid. In 2019, 98% of the city’s neighborhoods were unaffordable—way worse than Los Angeles, Boston, or San Jose.

  • Boston, MA: Boston’s housing affordability challenges began long before Covid but accelerated after the pandemic. Before Covid, married couples earning a median income were priced out of 90.7% of Boston’s neighborhoods. But that figure has since jumped to 100%, despite a comfortable median household income of $172,223.

  • San Jose, CA: Nestled in Silicon Valley, San Jose has long been one of the most expensive cities for housing in America. But things have gotten far worse since Covid, as 100% of its neighborhoods are now out of reach for the average family. Perhaps the most shocking part is that the median household income for married-couple families is $188,403—much higher than the national average.

  • San Diego, CA: Another California city, San Diego, is among the most unaffordable places in the country. Despite boasting a median married-couple household income of $136,297, 95.6% of the city’s neighborhoods are unaffordable.

  • San Francisco, CA: San Francisco is another California city with a high married-couple median income ($211,585) but low affordability. The percentage of unaffordable neighborhoods for these homebuyers stands at 89.2%.

  • New York, NY: As one of the most expensive cities in America, New York is a difficult housing market for married couples with dual income. New York City’s share of unaffordable neighborhoods is 85.9%, marking a 33.4% rise from pre-Covid times.

  • Miami, FL: Partly due to a population boom post-Covid, Miami is now one of the most unaffordable cities for homebuyers. Roughly four out of five (79.4%) of Miami’s neighborhoods are out of reach price-wise for married-couple families. That’s a 34.7% increase from 2019.

  • Nashville, TN: With Nashville’s population growth rebounding to pre-pandemic levels, the city has also seen greater affordability challenges. In the Music City, 73.7% of neighborhoods are considered unaffordable for married-couple households—an increase of 11.9% from pre-Covid levels.

  • Richmond, VA: Rounding out the bottom 10 is Richmond, where 55.9% of the city’s 161 neighborhoods are unaffordable for married-couple households. That’s an 11.9% increase from pre-Covid levels.

Cities with the lowest share of unaffordable neighborhoods

All the cities in our top-10 ranking have less than 10% unaffordable neighborhoods—meaning the average family can qualify for a home in at least 90% of the city.

Interestingly, these cities are also outside the top 15 cities by population, and eight are in the bottom half.

The following are the cities ranked from the most affordable to the least:

  • Hartford, CT: Hartford ranks first with the percentage of unaffordable neighborhoods at 0%, unchanged since pre-Covid times. Married couples earning a median income of $135,612 can afford to live in any of the city’s 16 neighborhoods. Interestingly, Hartford is the smallest city to rank in the top 10.

  • Memphis, TN: Like Hartford, Memphis has 0% unaffordable neighborhoods, meaning any married couple earning a median income of $101,734 can afford an average homes in any of the city’s 12 neighborhoods. The percentage of unaffordable neighborhoods also stood at 0% before Covid.

  • Cleveland, OH: The Midwestern city of Cleveland is also tied for first, with the percentage of unaffordable neighborhoods at 0%. That means households with a median-couple income of $89,066 can qualify for an average home in all of the city’s neighborhoods. Cleveland is also among the three cities that have seen no change in unaffordability compared to 2019.

  • Minneapolis, MN: The largest city in the top 10, Minneapolis’ share of unaffordable neighborhoods stood at 2.41%, up slightly from 2019. Married couples earning the median income ($149,214) have access to the vast majority of the city’s 83 neighborhoods.

  • Baltimore, MD: Married-couple households in Baltimore earn a median income of $141,634. At that rate, they can afford to live in 97.3% of the city’s 222 neighborhoods, making only 2.7% of neighborhoods unaffordable. That’s up from 0% pre-Covid.

  • Louisville, KY: Louisville is a highly competitive market for married households. For married-couple households earning a median wage, only 3.6% of neighborhoods are unaffordable, up 11.9% from pre-Covid times.

  • Cincinnati, OH: The second Ohio city in the top 10 ranks close to Cleveland in population but has a much higher median married-couple household income of $129,324. Only 3.6% of the city’s neighborhoods are unaffordable, up slightly from pre-pandemic levels.

  • Indianapolis, IN: Another competitive Midwestern market, only 4.4% of Indianapolis is unaffordable, making the vast majority of the city’s 92 neighborhoods accessible to the average married couple. Still, the percentage of unaffordable neighborhoods before Covid was less than 1%.

  • Oklahoma City, OK: Before Covid, Oklahoma City had 0% neighborhoods unaffordable for married-couple households earning the median wage. It has since increased to 4.69%, which is still tiny compared to the national average.

  • Kansas City, MO: Kansas City has one of the largest numbers of neighborhoods in the top 50 cities. Its married-couple residents can afford to live in nearly 95% of them, making only 5.6% of neighborhoods out of reach. Like Indiana, Kansas City’s share of unaffordable neighborhoods was less than 1% before Covid.

The biggest COVID losers

What's particularly astonishing about the current housing market is just how quickly affordability has declined since Covid.

Even factoring in the market correction after the 2022 peak, the price of existing homes is still nearly one-third higher than before Covid. Mortgage rates have also more than doubled since early 2022.

Combined, the rising home prices and interest rates led to the worst mortgage affordability in more than 40 years.

Against this backdrop, it’s hardly surprising that unaffordability increased in 47 of the 50 cities studied and remained flat in the other three. No city reported improved affordability in 2024 compared to 2019.

The biggest increases are led by San Jose (70 percentage points), San Diego (57.8 percentage points), Riverside-San Bernardino (51.9 percentage points), Sacramento (43 percentage points), Orlando (37.4 percentage points), Miami (34.7 percentage points), and New York City (33.4 percentage points).

The following cities in our study are ranked by the largest percentage point change in unaffordable neighborhoods since pre-Covid:

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/14/2024 - 14:00

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Your financial plan may be riskier without bitcoin

It might actually be riskier to not have bitcoin in your portfolio than it is to have a small allocation.

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This article originally appeared in the Sound Advisory blog. Sound Advisory provide financial advisory services and are specialize in educating and guiding clients to thrive financially in a bitcoin-powered world. Click here to learn more.

“Belief is a wise wager. Granted that faith cannot be proved, what harm will come to you if you gamble on its truth and it proves false? If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing. Wager, then, without hesitation, that He exists.”

- Blaise Pascal

Blaise Pascal only lived to age 39 but became world-famous for many contributions in the fields of mathematics, physics, and theology. The above quote encapsulates Pascal’s wager—a philosophical argument for the Christian belief in the existence of God.

The argument's conclusion states that a rational person should live as though God exists. Even if the probability is low, the reward is worth the risk.

Pascal’s wager as a justification for bitcoin? Yes, I’m aware of the fallacies: false dichotomy, appeal to emotion, begging the question, etc. That is not the point. The point is that binary outcomes instigate extreme results, and the game theory of money suggests that it’s a winner-take-all game.

The Pascalian investor: A rational approach to bitcoin

Humanity’s adoption of “the best money over time” mimics a series of binary outcomes—A/B tests.

Throughout history, inferior forms of money have faded as better alternatives emerged (see India’s failed transition to a gold standard). And if bitcoin is trying to be the premier money of the future, it will either succeed or it won’t.

“If you ain’t first, you’re last.” -Ricky Bobby, Talladega Nights, on which monies succeed over time.

So, we can look at bitcoin success similarly to Pascal’s wager—let’s call it Satoshi’s wager. The translated points would go something like this:

  • If you own bitcoin early and it becomes a globally valuable money, you gain immensely. ????
  • If you own bitcoin and it fails, you’ve lost that value. ????
  • If you don’t own bitcoin and it goes to zero, no pain and no gain. ????
  • If you don’t own bitcoin and it succeeds, you will have missed out on the significant financial revolution of our lifetimes and fall comparatively behind. ????

If bitcoin is successful, it will be worth far more than it is today and have a massive impact on your financial future. If it fails, the losses are only limited to your exposure. The most that you could lose is the money that you invested.

It is hypothetically possible that bitcoin could be worth 100x more than it is today, but it can only possibly lose 1x its value as it goes to zero. The concept we’re discussing here is asymmetric upside - significant gains with relatively limited downside. In other words, the potential rewards of the investment outweigh the potential risks.

Bitcoin offers an asymmetric upside that makes it a wise investment for most portfolios. Even a small allocation provides potential protection against extreme currency debasement.

Salt, gasoline, and insurance

“Don’t over salt your steak, pour too much gas on the fire, or buy too much insurance.”

A little bit goes a long way, and you can easily overdo it. The same applies when looking at bitcoin in the context of a financial plan.

Bitcoin’s asymmetric upside gives it “insurance-like” qualities, and that insurance pays off very well in times of money printing. This was exemplified in 2020 when bitcoin's value increased over 300% in response to pandemic money printing, far outpacing stocks, gold, and bonds.

Bitcoin offers a similar asymmetric upside today. Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million coins, making it resistant to inflationary debasement. In contrast, the dollar's purchasing power consistently declines through unrestrained money printing. History has shown that societies prefer money that is hard to inflate.

If recent rampant inflation is uncontainable and the dollar system falters, bitcoin is well-positioned as a successor. This global monetary A/B test is still early, but given their respective sizes, a little bitcoin can go a long way. If it succeeds, early adopters will benefit enormously compared to latecomers. Of course, there are no guarantees, but the potential reward justifies reasonable exposure despite the risks.

Let’s imagine Nervous Nancy, an extremely conservative investor. She wants to invest but also take the least risk possible. She invests 100% of her money in short-term cash equivalents (short-term treasuries, money markets, CDs, maybe some cash in the coffee can). With this investment allocation, she’s nearly certain to get her initial investment back and receive a modest amount of interest as a gain. However, she has no guarantees that the investment returned to her will purchase the same amount as it used to. Inflation and money printing cause each dollar to be able to purchase less and less over time. Depending on the severity of the inflation, it might not buy anything at all. In other words, she didn’t lose any dollars, but the dollar lost purchasing power.

Now, let’s salt her portfolio with bitcoin.

99% short-term treasuries. 1% bitcoin.

With a 1% allocation, if bitcoin goes to zero overnight, she’ll have only lost a penny on the dollar, and her treasury interest will quickly fill the gap. Not at all catastrophic to her financial future.

However, if the hypothetical hyperinflationary scenario from above plays out and bitcoin grows 100x in purchasing power, she’s saved everything. Metaphorically, her entire dollar house burned down, and “bitcoin insurance” made her whole. Powerful. A little bitcoin salt goes a long way.

(When protecting against the existing system, it’s important to remember that you need to get your bitcoin out of the system. Keeping bitcoin on an exchange or with a counterparty will do you no good if that entity fails. If you view bitcoin as insurance, it’s essential to keep your bitcoin in cold storage and hold your keys. Otherwise, it’s someone else’s insurance.)

When all you have a hammer, everything looks like a…

A construction joke:

There are only three rules to construction: 1.) Always use the right tool for the job! 2.) A hammer is always the right tool! 3.) Anything can be a hammer!

Yeah. That’s what I thought, too. Slightly funny and mostly useless.

But if you spend enough time swinging a hammer, you’ll eventually realize it can be more than it first appears. Not everything is a nail. A hammer can tear down walls, break concrete, tap objects into place, and wiggle other things out. A hammer can create and destroy; it builds tall towers and humbles novice fingers. The use cases expand with the skill of the carpenter.

Like hammers, bitcoin is a monetary tool. And a 1-5% allocator to the asset typically sees a “speculative insurance” use case - valid. Bitcoin is speculative insurance, but it is not only speculative insurance. People invest and save in bitcoin for many different reasons.

I’ve seen people use bitcoin to pursue all of the following use cases:

  • Hedging against a financial collapse (speculative insurance)
  • Saving for family and future (long-term general savings and safety net)
  • Growing a downpayment for a house (medium-term specific savings)
  • Shooting for the moon in a manner equivalent to winning the lottery (gambling)
  • Opting out of government-run, bank-controlled financial systems (financial optionality)
  • Making a quick buck (short-term trading)
  • Escaping a hostile country (wealth evacuation)
  • Locking away wealth that can’t be confiscated (wealth preservation)
  • As a means to influence opinions and gain followers (social status)
  • Fix the money and fix the world (mission and purpose)

Keep this in mind when taking other people’s financial advice. They are often playing a different game than you. They have different goals, upbringings, worldviews, family dynamics, and circumstances. Even though they might use the same hammer as you, it could be for a completely different job.

Wrapping Up

A massive allocation to bitcoin may seem crazy to some people, yet perfectly reasonable to others. The same goes for having a 1% allocation.

But, given today’s macroeconomic environment and bitcoin’s trajectory, I find very few use cases where 0% bitcoin makes sense. By not owning bitcoin, you implicitly say that you are 100% certain it will fail and go to zero. Given its 14-year history so far, I’d recommend reducing your confidence. Nobody is 100% right forever. A little salt goes a long way. Your financial plan may be riskier without bitcoin. Diversify accordingly.

“We must learn our limits. We are all something, but none of us are everything.” - Blaise Pascal.

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