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Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index: U.S. Auto Dealers See Market Weakness Driven by Inflation, Economic Anxiety, and Tight Inventory; Market Outlook Hits Record Low

Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index: U.S. Auto Dealers See Market Weakness Driven by Inflation, Economic Anxiety, and Tight Inventory; Market Outlook Hits Record Low
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ATLANTA, Sept. 8, 2022

Dealers rank limited inventory and the econom…

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Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index: U.S. Auto Dealers See Market Weakness Driven by Inflation, Economic Anxiety, and Tight Inventory; Market Outlook Hits Record Low

PR Newswire

  • Dealers rank limited inventory and the economy as the top two factors holding back business.
  • The 3-month, forward-looking market outlook dropped sharply from the previous quarter and is at a record low.
  • Profit index declines for the fourth straight quarter but indicates franchised dealers believe profits remain particularly strong; independent dealers see profits as weak.

ATLANTA, Sept. 8, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. automobile dealer sentiment in Q3 2022 reflects that more dealers view the current market as weak than strong. Now, at 49, the current market index is below the threshold of 50 in the Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI), marking the fifth quarter-over-quarter decline in overall market sentiment. The index is down five points from Q2 and down 13 points year over year. The current market index was last below 50 in Q1 2021; it peaked at 67 in Q2 2021. U.S. auto dealers indicate that their negative view of the market is influenced by inflation, economic anxiety, and tight inventory.

More automobile dealers now view the U.S. market as weak, according to the Q3 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index.

The 3-month, forward-looking market outlook index dropped sharply from the previous quarter and, at 44, is at a record low for the index, back to levels last seen at the onset of the pandemic in Q2 2020 and well below the 60 recorded in Q3 2021. The quarter-over-quarter decrease in market outlook, however, was driven more by independent dealers, with a 10-point drop to 40, equal to the lowest level last recorded at the start of the pandemic. Franchised dealers' outlook was also down quarter over quarter but by only five points.

"Importantly, a drop in current-market sentiment is not typical in the third quarter," said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. "The third quarter is usually mostly stable and, for franchised dealers, is often improving. There is typically excitement building with new models rolling out and energy for the new-vehicle market through the fourth quarter and holiday seasons. That is just not the case this year."

The Q3 2022 CADSI research was in market from July 26 to Aug. 9, 2022, when inflation was subsiding slightly from the 40-year high in June and the Fed was raising rates again while promising more rate hikes.

Inventory Remains Major Challenge to Sales

While still historically low, the new-vehicle inventory level index improved from last quarter and is up significantly from one year ago. Still, at 31, the new-vehicle inventory level index indicates inventory remains a major challenge for franchised dealers. For comparison: In Q3 2019, the index was at 61, meaning more dealers felt their inventory was growing, not declining.

"New-vehicle inventory is moving in a positive direction and clearly getting better for some dealers," added Smoke. "But the gains are not universal. In our inventory data, we see the domestic brands are in much better shape, and the Asian brands are notably worse." 

While profits remain historically strong for franchised dealers, a lack of new-vehicle inventory and no quick fix in the making is likely weighing on franchised dealers' minds.

On the used-vehicle side, the inventory level index increased slightly as well in Q3 2022 to 36, one point higher than the previous quarter and up five points year over year. Among franchised dealers, the used-vehicle inventory level index improved by 12 points year over year in Q3 to 47. The index was flat quarter over quarter for independent dealers. The used-vehicle inventory mix index was also generally flat quarter over quarter and year over year at 47.

Still, all index scores associated with inventory remain below the 50 threshold, indicating dealers still face significant inventory challenges for both new and used vehicles. Consistent with last quarter, Limited Inventory ranks as the No. 1 factor holding back dealer business in Q3.

While new-vehicle inventory sentiment improved in Q3, the view of new-vehicle sales worsened slightly, decreasing from 52 to 51, meaning dealers are now marginally less optimistic about the current new-vehicle sales environment. One year ago, the index score was also 51, meaning the same number of dealers saw the market as good versus poor. The new-vehicle incentives index rose by one point quarter over quarter to 22 and has remained relatively stable in the low-to-mid-twenties for a year. For comparison, the incentive index was at 48 in Q3 2019.

The used-vehicle sales index remained stable at 47 in Q3 2022. For franchised dealers, the used-vehicle sales index decreased by three points and is now 12 points below year-ago levels. For independent dealers, the index fell one point from the previous quarter to 41 and is down 13 points from a year ago. Overall, most dealers view used-vehicle sales as poor. 

Dealers Worried About the Economy and Costs 

While Limited Inventory continues to be the top factor holding back business according to the Q3 2022 CADSI, factors tied to the economy and inflation are clearly causing concern with the dealers.

In Q3 2022, the economy index dropped to 45, down from 50 in Q2 and 51 a year earlier. This indicates more dealers see the U.S. economy as weak. The Economy, in fact, is the second leading factor impacting dealer business, with 53% of dealers citing it, up from 46% in Q2, with Market Conditions, Interest Rates and Political Climate following closely behind. Dealers are worried about inflation, the possibility of a recession, and lagging consumer confidence. In response to a new question, dealers indicate that inflation had a strong impact on every aspect of the dealership, including costs/expenses (80), interest rates (71), vehicle sales (62), fixed operations (62) and staffing levels (50).

The cost index – specifically the cost of running a dealership – dipped one point to 75 in Q3 from the record high level in Q2 but remain historically elevated. After reaching a record low in Q2 2020 of 51 at the height of the pandemic, the cost index has been steadily increasing.  

Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index Methodology

The Q3 2022 CADSI is based on 1,040 U.S. auto dealer respondents, comprising 574 franchised dealers and 466 independents. The survey was conducted from July 26 to Aug. 9, 2022. Dealer responses were weighted by dealership type and sales volume to represent the national dealer population. For each aspect of the market surveyed, respondents are given an option related to strong/increasing, average/stable, or weak/decreasing, along with a "don't know" opt-out. Indices are calculated by creating a mean score in which:

  • Strong/increasing answers are assigned a value of 100.
  • Average/stable answers are assigned a value of 50.
  • Weak/declining selections are assigned a value of 0.

Respondents who select "don't know" for a particular question are removed from the related index calculation. The total metrics reported have a +/- 3.0 percent margin of error.

Download the full results of the Q3 2022 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. makes buying, selling, owning and using vehicles easier for everyone. The global company's more than 27,000 team members and family of brands, including Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions®, vAuto® and Xtime®, are passionate about helping millions of car shoppers, 40,000 auto dealer clients across five continents and many others throughout the automotive industry thrive for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with annual revenues of nearly $20 billion. www.coxautoinc.com

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International

Beloved mall retailer files Chapter 7 bankruptcy, will liquidate

The struggling chain has given up the fight and will close hundreds of stores around the world.

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It has been a brutal period for several popular retailers. The fallout from the covid pandemic and a challenging economic environment have pushed numerous chains into bankruptcy with Tuesday Morning, Christmas Tree Shops, and Bed Bath & Beyond all moving from Chapter 11 to Chapter 7 bankruptcy liquidation.

In all three of those cases, the companies faced clear financial pressures that led to inventory problems and vendors demanding faster, or even upfront payment. That creates a sort of inevitability.

Related: Beloved retailer finds life after bankruptcy, new famous owner

When a retailer faces financial pressure it sets off a cycle where vendors become wary of selling them items. That leads to barren shelves and no ability for the chain to sell its way out of its financial problems. 

Once that happens bankruptcy generally becomes the only option. Sometimes that means a Chapter 11 filing which gives the company a chance to negotiate with its creditors. In some cases, deals can be worked out where vendors extend longer terms or even forgive some debts, and banks offer an extension of loan terms.

In other cases, new funding can be secured which assuages vendor concerns or the company might be taken over by its vendors. Sometimes, as was the case with David's Bridal, a new owner steps in, adds new money, and makes deals with creditors in order to give the company a new lease on life.

It's rare that a retailer moves directly into Chapter 7 bankruptcy and decides to liquidate without trying to find a new source of funding.

Mall traffic has varied depending upon the type of mall.

Image source: Getty Images

The Body Shop has bad news for customers  

The Body Shop has been in a very public fight for survival. Fears began when the company closed half of its locations in the United Kingdom. That was followed by a bankruptcy-style filing in Canada and an abrupt closure of its U.S. stores on March 4.

"The Canadian subsidiary of the global beauty and cosmetics brand announced it has started restructuring proceedings by filing a Notice of Intention (NOI) to Make a Proposal pursuant to the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (Canada). In the same release, the company said that, as of March 1, 2024, The Body Shop US Limited has ceased operations," Chain Store Age reported.

A message on the company's U.S. website shared a simple message that does not appear to be the entire story.

"We're currently undergoing planned maintenance, but don't worry we're due to be back online soon."

That same message is still on the company's website, but a new filing makes it clear that the site is not down for maintenance, it's down for good.

The Body Shop files for Chapter 7 bankruptcy

While the future appeared bleak for The Body Shop, fans of the brand held out hope that a savior would step in. That's not going to be the case. 

The Body Shop filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in the United States.

"The US arm of the ethical cosmetics group has ceased trading at its 50 outlets. On Saturday (March 9), it filed for Chapter 7 insolvency, under which assets are sold off to clear debts, putting about 400 jobs at risk including those in a distribution center that still holds millions of dollars worth of stock," The Guardian reported.

After its closure in the United States, the survival of the brand remains very much in doubt. About half of the chain's stores in the United Kingdom remain open along with its Australian stores. 

The future of those stores remains very much in doubt and the chain has shared that it needs new funding in order for them to continue operating.

The Body Shop did not respond to a request for comment from TheStreet.   

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Government

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Government

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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