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Copper price outlook: Dwight Anderson sees explosive returns ahead

Mankind’s love affair with copper dates back to some of our most ancient civilizations, well before written records. Archaeologists from Haifa University…



Mankind’s love affair with copper dates back to some of our most ancient civilizations, well before written records.

Archaeologists from Haifa University located a copper tool near the Jordan River estimated to be 7,000 years old.

A special metal, the red element could be used directly without the need for processing or later scientific revolutions.

In more recent times, it has assumed a near-hallowed position in modern, industrial societies, due to its many invaluable properties including thermal and electrical conductivity, malleability, and ductility.

It is a key component in various industries such as electronics, wiring, power transmission, construction, transportation, EVs, medical devices, and plumbing and is widely utilized for its anti-microbial aspects.

Approximately 12 months ago, copper prices reached a high of above $10,400 per ton, but at the time of writing were trading at 13.9% below this level.

However, the bull case for copper is still intact and is based on multiple supportive factors.

Demand factors

As mentioned above, copper is used in a variety of industrial, construction and transportation applications.

Dwight Anderson, the founder of Ospraie Management, LLC, notes that although GDP has been on the sluggish side, copper intensity (copper utilized per unit of GDP) is rising, implying that society is shifting to a more copper-dependent way of life.

Greener agenda

One of the primary reasons for this trend is the push by virtually all governments for greening the economy including the broad-based adoption of EVs, roll out of charging infrastructure and associated storage options, sustainable logistics, clean transportation, and net-zero grids.

Anderson noted that the switch to these technologies is highly copper intensive,

…you use 23 kilograms…of copper per core in a conventional car combustion engine. In a hybrid car battery, it is 83 kilograms.

In the US, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act has allotted $370 billion in tax credits and other incentives to de-risk the green energy transition and involve private sector parties.

Such a strategic shift will fuel greater demand for copper, particularly for use in the wiring of distributed grids.

As a result, legislation is a major factor driving the expected demand for copper over the next decade and more.

Communication and data demand

Secondly, the communications sector is rapidly driving growth in copper demand.

This would include the use of batteries and expansion of power grids to electrify 3G, 4G and 5G facilities.

The US Energy Information Administration estimates that electricity consumption in 2024 will be 209 billion kilowatt-hours over and above that of 2020, requiring miles of power cables, network installations, and the use of generators, which are all bullish for copper.


The EU is the global leader in green electrification and harbours a strong culture around energy transition.

In 2022, BloombergNEF estimated that Europe’s net-zero transition strategy would cost a staggering $5.3 trillion.

Each major channel of renewable energy is highly copper-intensive.

Wind energy, for instance, consumes 1.4 tons of copper per MW.

Solar PV installations require 65% more, while offshore wind facilities use more than thrice that volume.

Source: IHS Markit

Moreover, Anderson believes that due to the intermittent nature of renewable power, replacement with traditional energy generation is not on a 1-to-1 basis.

According to his estimates,

…it is over 3 MW of power and related storage…that you need to build to replace one MW of base load.

On the other hand, traditional coal plants usually require less than 1 ton of copper per MW.


Gavekal Dragonomics, a consultancy firm, estimates that China’s demand for copper in 2023 would rise by 3.5%.

Recent positive data from China including an above-forecast improvement in retail sales, higher annual industrial production, and the outperformance of the NBS Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Composite PMI earlier in the month are cause for cheer.

Onshoring supply chains

Other than the drive for green, the pandemic-era stoppages and the Ukraine-Russia war made it abundantly apparent that outsourced supply chains and JIT processes can be extremely vulnerable to sudden disruption.

As a result, major economies such as the US and Europe are looking to create more infrastructure onshore to mitigate risk, particularly as the globe becomes increasingly polarized.

Supply crunch

The world has faced a global copper deficit for several years now. The primary force behind this has been the chronic under-investment in mineral operations, and the lack of exploration projects.

In February 2023, the International Copper Study Group estimated the 2022 global shortfall to be about 504,000 tons or roughly 2% of global consumption.

Erik Heimlich, head of base metals supply at CRU expects that by 2030 this deficit could balloon to 4.7 million tons annually.

To complicate matters, the quality of ore is falling in most mining operations, creating a sharp divergence from expected demand.

Chile, Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo collectively account for 45% of global production.

Each of these countries has faced a mix of internal disturbances, operational inefficiencies, or contractual disagreements, which threaten the stability of output.

A major hurdle for new mining operations is also likely to be the fast uptake of ESG standards, which could slow capital deployment into new projects in already high-rate environments.

As a result, this is the peak in copper production, and even if new projects are launched, it would likely take a decade or more to ramp up supply.

John Ciampaglia, CEO at Sprott Asset Management, adds that prolonged pandemic stoppages have exacerbated labour shortages in some markets.

Inventories and potential for explosive returns

For Anderson, the mix of these factors is the perfect storm for explosive growth in the price of the red metal.

One of his key arguments is due to the critical level of global inventories.

Source: KITCO

A sea-change in automakers’ strategies to ensure copper security has seen OEMs investing in pre-development stages of mineral projects, implying that they expect considerable EV demand but want sources of raw material under their direct control.

Anderson expects that even a slight improvement in demand combined with near-zero inventory levels, copper prices could be,

…explosive…and it’s off to the races.

Potential pitfalls

We are yet to fully come to terms with the health of the Chinese economy, particularly since much of the recent stimulus packages have not been directed into industrial capacity but other social sectors. Industry watchers will continue to assess import demand in China. 

In the West, recessionary forces may dent the business cycle and lead to a decline in copper-intensive production such as for housing or automobiles.

However, due to legislative pressure and the likely easing of rates sometime in the future, this will likely be temporary.

Investors who are long on copper may have to weather such volatility in the coming year.

The energy transition is also bound to create a lot of pressure on local populations which may result in falling support.

With the IMF and World Bank projecting slowdowns in global growth, this may exacerbate conditions on the ground.

Secondly, reports suggest that an increasing base of investors are themselves beginning to question the soundness of current ESG methodologies.

Speaking to Harvard Business Review, an ESG reporting expert Robert Eccles said,

…we would be better off if ESG investing would just go poof.

Thus, the ESG driver may see some dilution, perhaps not immediately but in the years to come.

Lastly, although unlikely at this point, investors should consider the effects of prolonged high interest rates and what this may mean for demand.

The next 6 to 12 months  

For the coming year, copper fundamentals are very sound, and Anderson suggests,

…we should see a record price for copper (within the next year).

Goldman Sachs for instance expects copper prices to surge to $12,000 per ton by 2024.

The International Copper Association estimates that at higher prices the substitution into aluminium metal can likely only reach up to 1.3% of overall demand, insufficient to close the copper deficit.

The prevailing structural supply deficit and tight monetary conditions may offer an invaluable buying opportunity for long investors.

The post Copper price outlook: Dwight Anderson sees explosive returns ahead appeared first on Invezz.

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Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges

Here’s what could happen to Apple shares next.



They said it was bound to happen.

It was Jan. 11, 2024 when software giant Microsoft  (MSFT)  briefly passed Apple  (AAPL)  as the most valuable company in the world.

Microsoft's stock closed 0.5% higher, giving it a market valuation of $2.859 trillion. 

It rose as much as 2% during the session and the company was briefly worth $2.903 trillion. Apple closed 0.3% lower, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.886 trillion. 

"It was inevitable that Microsoft would overtake Apple since Microsoft is growing faster and has more to benefit from the generative AI revolution," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said at the time, according to Reuters.

The two tech titans have jostled for top spot over the years and Microsoft was ahead at last check, with a market cap of $3.085 trillion, compared with Apple's value of $2.684 trillion.

Analysts noted that Apple had been dealing with weakening demand, including for the iPhone, the company’s main source of revenue. 

Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country's economy makes a slow recovery from the pandemic and competition from Huawei.

Sales in China of Apple's iPhone fell by 24% in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to research firm Counterpoint, as the company contended with stiff competition from a resurgent Huawei "while getting squeezed in the middle on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi," said senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang.

“Although the iPhone 15 is a great device, it has no significant upgrades from the previous version, so consumers feel fine holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now," he said.

A man scrolling through Netflix on an Apple iPad Pro. Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Future Publishing/Getty Images

Big plans for China

Counterpoint said that the first six weeks of 2023 saw abnormally high numbers with significant unit sales being deferred from December 2022 due to production issues.

Apple is planning to open its eighth store in Shanghai – and its 47th across China – on March 21.

Related: Tech News Now: OpenAI says Musk contract 'never existed', Xiaomi's EV, and more

The company also plans to expand its research centre in Shanghai to support all of its product lines and open a new lab in southern tech hub Shenzhen later this year, according to the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Apple announced changes to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which went into effect last week, Reuters reported on March 12.

Beginning this spring, software developers operating in Europe will be able to distribute apps to EU customers directly from their own websites instead of through the App Store.

"To reflect the DMA’s changes, users in the EU can install apps from alternative app marketplaces in iOS 17.4 and later," Apple said on its website, referring to the software platform that runs iPhones and iPads. 

"Users will be able to download an alternative marketplace app from the marketplace developer’s website," the company said.

Apple has also said it will appeal a $2 billion EU antitrust fine for thwarting competition from Spotify  (SPOT)  and other music streaming rivals via restrictions on the App Store.

The company's shares have suffered amid all this upheaval, but some analysts still see good things in Apple's future.

Bank of America Securities confirmed its positive stance on Apple, maintaining a buy rating with a steady price target of $225, according to

The firm's analysis highlighted Apple's pricing strategy evolution since the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007, with initial prices set at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB model.

BofA said that Apple has consistently launched new iPhone models, including the Pro/Pro Max versions, to target the premium market. 

Analyst says Apple selloff 'overdone'

Concurrently, prices for previous models are typically reduced by about $100 with each new release. 

This strategy, coupled with installment plans from Apple and carriers, has contributed to the iPhone's installed base reaching a record 1.2 billion in 2023, the firm said.

More Tech Stocks:

Apple has effectively shifted its sales mix toward higher-value units despite experiencing slower unit sales, BofA said.

This trend is expected to persist and could help mitigate potential unit sales weaknesses, particularly in China. 

BofA also noted Apple's dominance in the high-end market, maintaining a market share of over 90% in the $1,000 and above price band for the past three years.

The firm also cited the anticipation of a multi-year iPhone cycle propelled by next-generation AI technology, robust services growth, and the potential for margin expansion.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said they believed that the sell-off in the iPhone maker’s shares may be “overdone.”

The firm said that investors' growing preference for AI-focused stocks like Nvidia  (NVDA)  has led to a reallocation of funds away from Apple. 

In addition, Evercore said concerns over weakening demand in China, where Apple may be losing market share in the smartphone segment, have affected investor sentiment.

And then ongoing regulatory issues continue to have an impact on investor confidence in the world's second-biggest company.

“We think the sell-off is rather overdone, while we suspect there is strong valuation support at current levels to down 10%, there are three distinct drivers that could unlock upside on the stock from here – a) Cap allocation, b) AI inferencing, and c) Risk-off/defensive shift," the firm said in a research note.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Major typhoid fever surveillance study in sub-Saharan Africa indicates need for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high…



There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Credit: IVI

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.


The findings from this 4-year study, the Severe Typhoid in Africa (SETA) program, offers new typhoid fever burden estimates from six countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria, with four countries recording more than 100 cases for every 100,000 person-years of observation, which is considered a high burden. The highest incidence of typhoid was found in DRC with 315 cases per 100,000 people while children between 2-14 years of age were shown to be at highest risk across all 25 study sites.


There are an estimated 12.5 to 16.3 million cases of typhoid every year with 140,000 deaths. However, with generic symptoms such as fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain, and the need for blood culture sampling to make a definitive diagnosis, it is difficult for governments to capture the true burden of typhoid in their countries.


“Our goal through SETA was to address these gaps in typhoid disease burden data,” said lead author Dr. Florian Marks, Deputy Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). “Our estimates indicate that introduction of TCV in endemic settings would go to lengths in protecting communities, especially school-aged children, against this potentially deadly—but preventable—disease.”


In addition to disease incidence, this study also showed that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Salmonella Typhi, the bacteria that causes typhoid fever, has led to more reliance beyond the traditional first line of antibiotic treatment. If left untreated, severe cases of the disease can lead to intestinal perforation and even death. This suggests that prevention through vaccination may play a critical role in not only protecting against typhoid fever but reducing the spread of drug-resistant strains of the bacteria.


There are two TCVs prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and available through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. In February 2024, IVI and SK bioscience announced that a third TCV, SKYTyphoid™, also achieved WHO PQ, paving the way for public procurement and increasing the global supply.


Alongside the SETA disease burden study, IVI has been working with colleagues in three African countries to show the real-world impact of TCV vaccination. These studies include a cluster-randomized trial in Agogo, Ghana and two effectiveness studies following mass vaccination in Kisantu, DRC and Imerintsiatosika, Madagascar.


Dr. Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Associate Director General at IVI and Head of the Real-World Evidence Department, explains, “Through these vaccine effectiveness studies, we aim to show the full public health value of TCV in settings that are directly impacted by a high burden of typhoid fever.” He adds, “Our final objective of course is to eliminate typhoid or to at least reduce the burden to low incidence levels, and that’s what we are attempting in Fiji with an island-wide vaccination campaign.”


As more countries in typhoid endemic countries, namely in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, consider TCV in national immunization programs, these data will help inform evidence-based policy decisions around typhoid prevention and control.




About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that is recently pre-qualified by WHO.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, a Country Office in Austria, and Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit



Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 |

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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC’s…



US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever... And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC's Brian Sullivan took a horse dose of Red Pills when, about six months after our readers, he learned that the US is issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, which prompted him to rage tweet, (or rageX, not sure what the proper term is here) the following:

We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.   

Maybe it will never matter.   Maybe MMT is real.   Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.

I have no idea.  Only time will tell.   But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."

According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.

The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...

... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.

The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.

And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.

But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).

And it gets even worse, because we are now in the ponzi finance stage of the Minsky cycle, with total interest on the debt annualizing well above $1 trillion, and rising every day

... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.

We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...

.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:

The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.

Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.

That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.

No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.

Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 18:40

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