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ChoiceOne Financial Reports Fourth Quarter and Year End 2022 Results
ChoiceOne Financial Reports Fourth Quarter and Year End 2022 Results
PR Newswire
SPARTA, Mich., Jan. 25, 2023
SPARTA, Mich., Jan. 25, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. (“ChoiceOne”, NASDAQ:COFS), the parent company for ChoiceO…

ChoiceOne Financial Reports Fourth Quarter and Year End 2022 Results
PR Newswire
SPARTA, Mich., Jan. 25, 2023
SPARTA, Mich., Jan. 25, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. ("ChoiceOne", NASDAQ:COFS), the parent company for ChoiceOne Bank, reported financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2022.
Financial Highlights
- ChoiceOne reported net income of $6,684,000 and $23,640,000 for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2022, compared to $5,012,000 and $22,042,000 for the same periods in 2021.
- Diluted earnings per share were $0.89 and $3.15 in the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2022, compared to $0.66 and $2.86 per share in the same periods in the prior year.
- Core loans, which exclude Paycheck Protection Program ("PPP") loans, held for sale loans, and loans to other financial institutions, grew organically by $57.4 million or 20.3% on an annualized basis during the fourth quarter of 2022 and $206.1 million or 21.0% during the full year 2022.
- Deposits increased by $65.7 million or 3.2% for the full year 2022 with related deposit interest expense increasing $2.5 million. Deposits declined $38.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to some seasonality in municipal deposits and increased competition.
- ChoiceOne opened a loan production office in Oakland County, Michigan during the fourth quarter 2022. It is intended that this location will host both commercial and mortgage lenders and is ChoiceOne's fourth loan production office opened in recent years.
- ChoiceOne plans to launch an enhanced treasury services online platform for business clients in 2023. This new platform targets mid-sized businesses and municipalities who require enhanced reporting, security, and payment capabilities.
"Our investment in growing an experienced commercial lending team continues to drive strong organic core loan growth, with core loans growing organically over 20% during 2022," said Kelly Potes, Chief Executive Officer. "Our focus on customer relationships is reflected in our deposit balances which increased $65.7 million compared to the end of 2021 despite increased pressure from competition. With higher interest rates, our local low-cost core deposit franchise provides significant value, and we expect to continue to fund our growth with local deposits and other on-balance sheet liquidity."
ChoiceOne reported net income of $6,684,000 and $23,640,000 for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2022, compared to $5,012,000 and $22,042,000 for the same periods in 2021. Diluted earnings per share were $0.89 and $3.15 in the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2022, compared to $0.66 and $2.86 per share in the same periods in the prior year.
Total assets as of December 31, 2022, increased $19.2 million as compared to December 31, 2021. ChoiceOne saw deposits decline $38.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to some seasonality in municipal deposits and increased competition. The cost of these deposits also increased by $940,000 in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter of 2022 and $1.8 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Deposits have increased by $65.7 million in the twelve months ended December 31, 2022; however, during that time deposit expense has increased $2.5 million. Cost of interest-bearing deposits increased to 0.66% in the fourth quarter of 2022 primarily due to the increases in rates offered to retain clients and an increased interest in certificates of deposit. ChoiceOne is actively managing these costs while still retaining funds, and anticipates that deposit expense will continue to lag the expected additional increases in the federal funds rate. Borrowing interest expense for the twelve months ended December 31, 2022, increased $1.2 million as compared to the same period in 2021 primarily due to the issuance of $32.5 million in subordinated debt that was completed in the third quarter of 2021 and the increase in rates on borrowings.
Core loans grew organically by $57.4 million or 20.3% on an annualized basis during the fourth quarter of 2022 and $206.1 million or 21.0% during the full year 2022. Loans to other financial institutions, consisting of a warehouse line of credit, were suspended at the end of the third quarter 2022 to preserve liquidity for loan growth. ChoiceOne continues to have ample on balance sheet liquidity to fund future loan growth, including an estimated $168 million of cash flow from securities over the next two years. Interest income increased $10.4 million in the twelve months ended December 31, 2022, compared to the same period in the prior year. The increase was driven by a $6.3 million increase in securities interest income despite the average balance of securities decreasing $7.0 million during the year. In 2022, ChoiceOne liquidated a total of $46.8 million in securities resulting in an $809,000 realized loss, in order to redeploy funds into higher yielding loans and securities, and to reduce the risk of extension on certain fixed income securities which include a call option. $4.2 million of the increase in interest income is from loan interest income and was primarily a result of higher loan balances and $2.0 million of accretion income from acquired loans partially offset by a decrease in PPP fee income of $3.9 million.
ChoiceOne had $250,000 of provision for loan losses expense for the year ended December 31, 2022. Management has seen declining deferrals and very few past due loans; however, the additional provision was deemed necessary due to consistent loan growth. On December 31, 2022, the allowance for loan losses represented 0.64% of total loans. ChoiceOne will adopt ASU 2016-13 current expected credit loss ("CECL") on January 1, 2023. Due to the current economic environment, the nature of the new calculation, and purchase accounting with our recent mergers, we anticipate an increase in our current reserve of between $6.5 million and $7.0 million which results in a reserve to total loan coverage ratio between 1.15% and 1.20% on January 1, 2023. Approximately 20% to 25% of this increase is related to the migration of purchased loans into the portfolio assessed by the CECL calculation. Purchased loans carry approximately $4 million of accretable yield which will be recognized into income over the remaining life of the loans. ChoiceOne will also book a liability for expected credit losses on unfunded loans and other commitments of between $2.5 million to $3.0 million related to the adoption of CECL guidance. These unfunded loans are open credit lines with current customers and loans approved by ChoiceOne but not funded. The increase in the reserve and the cost of the liability will be funded through equity, net of tax, in accordance with FASB guidance.
Shareholders' equity totaled $168.9 million as of December 31, 2022, down from $221.7 million as of December 31, 2021, primarily due to an increase in the after-tax net unrealized loss on securities available for sale resulting from higher market interest rates. ChoiceOne's derivative strategy implemented during the second quarter of 2022 and repositioned during the fourth quarter of 2022, is expected to better prepare the bank should rates continue to rise. The net impact on equity of the derivative strategy as of December 31, 2022, was $957,000 net of tax. ChoiceOne Bank remains "well-capitalized" with a total risk-based capital ratio of 13.0% as of December 31, 2022, compared to 12.9% on December 31, 2021. No shares of common stock were repurchased during the fourth quarter of 2022; however, ChoiceOne may strategically repurchase shares of common stock in the future depending on market and other conditions.
Total noninterest income declined $5.1 million during the year ended 2022 compared to the year ended 2021. $4.1 million of this decline is due to the change in the mortgage sales environment from the prior year. With the rapid rise in interest rates, refinancing activity has slowed, and demand has shifted towards adjustable-rate products. Customer service charges increased $722,000 during 2022 compared to 2021 as prior year service charges were depressed by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The change in market value of equity securities declined $1.4 million during 2022 compared to 2021 consistent with general market conditions. Equity investments include local community bank stocks and Community Reinvestment Act bond mutual funds.
Total noninterest expense increased $557,000, or 1.1%, in 2022 compared to 2021. Overall expense management was a focus in 2022 and will continue to be in 2023 given inflationary pressures. The increase in total noninterest expense was related to an increase in salaries and wages due to annual wage increases and the addition of new commercial loan production and wealth management staff. This increase was offset by decreases in other categories including professional fees. ChoiceOne continues to monitor expenses and looks to improve our efficiency through automation and use of digital tools. ChoiceOne plans to launch an enhanced treasury services online platform for business clients in 2023. This new platform targets mid-sized businesses and municipalities who require enhanced reporting, security, and payment capabilities. Management believes that continuing to invest in our technology and people is the right way to maintain sustainable growth.
Potes further commented, "Our growth and well managed expenses in 2022 are a result of the hard work of our employees and the client relationships that they foster. ChoiceOne's mission is to provide superior service, quality advice, and treat all we meet with utmost respect. Our value is not measured in the interest rate we pay, but the interest we take in our client's success. I am very pleased with our 2022 results and believe we have the right pieces in place to have a successful 2023."
About ChoiceOne
ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. is a financial holding company headquartered in Sparta, Michigan and the parent corporation of ChoiceOne Bank. Member FDIC. ChoiceOne Bank operates 36 offices in parts of Kent, Lapeer, Macomb, Muskegon, Newaygo, Ottawa, and St. Clair counties. ChoiceOne Bank offers insurance and investment products through its subsidiary, ChoiceOne Insurance Agencies, Inc. For more information, please visit Investor Relations at ChoiceOne's website at choiceone.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This release may contain forward-looking statements. Words such as "anticipates," "believes," "estimates," "expects," "forecasts," "intends," "is likely," "plans," "predicts," "projects," "may," "could," "look forward," "continue", "future", "will" and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward looking statements. These statements reflect current beliefs as to the expected outcomes of future events and are not guarantees of future performance. These statements involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions ("risk factors") that are difficult to predict with regard to timing, extent, likelihood and degree of occurrence. Therefore, actual results and outcomes may materially differ from what may be expressed, implied or forecasted in such forward-looking statements. Furthermore, ChoiceOne undertakes no obligation to update, amend, or clarify forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Risk factors include, but are not limited to, the risk factors described in Item 1A in ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc.'s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021.
Condensed Balance Sheets | ||||||||
(In thousands) | 12/31/2022 | 12/31/2021 | ||||||
Cash and cash equivalents | $ | 43,943 | $ | 31,887 | ||||
Securities Held to Maturity | 425,906 | - | ||||||
Securities Available for Sale | 546,897 | 1,116,265 | ||||||
Loans held for sale | 4,834 | 9,351 | ||||||
Loans to other financial institutions | - | 42,632 | ||||||
Loans, net of allowance for loan losses | 1,182,163 | 1,009,160 | ||||||
Premises and equipment | 28,232 | 29,880 | ||||||
Cash surrender value of life insurance policies | 43,978 | 43,356 | ||||||
Goodwill | 59,946 | 59,946 | ||||||
Core deposit intangible | 2,809 | 3,962 | ||||||
Other assets | 47,206 | 20,243 | ||||||
Total Assets | $ | 2,385,914 | $ | 2,366,682 | ||||
Noninterest-bearing deposits | $ | 599,579 | $ | 560,931 | ||||
Interest-bearing deposits | 1,518,424 | 1,491,363 | ||||||
Borrowings | 50,000 | 50,000 | ||||||
Subordinated debentures | 35,262 | 35,017 | ||||||
Other liabilities | 13,775 | 7,702 | ||||||
Total Liabilities | 2,217,040 | 2,145,013 | ||||||
Common stock and paid-in capital, no par value; shares authorized: 12,000,000; shares outstanding: 7,516,098 at December 31, 2022 and 7,510,379 at December 31, 2021 | 172,277 | 171,913 | ||||||
Retained earnings | 68,394 | 52,332 | ||||||
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), net | (71,797) | (2,576) | ||||||
Shareholders' Equity | 168,874 | 221,669 | ||||||
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity | $ | 2,385,914 | $ | 2,366,682 |
Condensed Statements of Income | ||||||||||||||||
Three Months Ended | Twelve Months Ended | |||||||||||||||
(In thousands, except per share data) | 12/31/2022 | 12/31/2021 | 12/31/2022 | 12/31/2021 | ||||||||||||
Interest income | ||||||||||||||||
Loans, including fees | $ | 14,391 | $ | 12,002 | $ | 52,823 | $ | 48,657 | ||||||||
Securities and other | 6,244 | 4,816 | 22,237 | 15,961 | ||||||||||||
Total Interest Income | 20,635 | 16,818 | 75,060 | 64,618 | ||||||||||||
Interest expense | ||||||||||||||||
Deposits | 2,503 | 749 | 5,845 | 3,305 | ||||||||||||
Borrowings | 766 | 324 | 1,901 | 672 | ||||||||||||
Total Interest Expense | 3,269 | 1,073 | 7,746 | 3,977 | ||||||||||||
Net interest income | 17,366 | 15,745 | 67,314 | 60,641 | ||||||||||||
Provision for loan losses | 150 | - | 250 | 416 | ||||||||||||
Net Interest Income After Provision for Loan Losses | 17,216 | 15,745 | 67,064 | 60,225 | ||||||||||||
Noninterest income | ||||||||||||||||
Customer service charges | 2,350 | 2,319 | 9,350 | 8,628 | ||||||||||||
Insurance and investment commissions | 183 | 141 | 779 | 765 | ||||||||||||
Gains on sales of loans | 220 | 1,061 | 2,343 | 6,402 | ||||||||||||
Gains (loss) on sales of securities | (4) | (43) | (809) | (40) | ||||||||||||
Gains (loss) on sales of other assets | (73) | 3 | 99 | 6 | ||||||||||||
Trust income | 206 | 178 | 734 | 790 | ||||||||||||
Earnings on life insurance policies | 519 | 239 | 1,312 | 809 | ||||||||||||
Change in market value of equity securities | 51 | 18 | (955) | 479 | ||||||||||||
Other income | 297 | 228 | 1,219 | 1,355 | ||||||||||||
Total Noninterest Income | 3,749 | 4,144 | 14,072 | 19,194 | ||||||||||||
Noninterest expense | ||||||||||||||||
Salaries and benefits | 7,580 | 7,581 | 30,391 | 29,300 | ||||||||||||
Occupancy and equipment | 1,501 | 1,577 | 6,189 | 6,168 | ||||||||||||
Data processing | 1,673 | 1,616 | 6,729 | 6,189 | ||||||||||||
Professional fees | 547 | 583 | 2,175 | 3,009 | ||||||||||||
Core deposit intangible amortization | 252 | 302 | 1,153 | 1,307 | ||||||||||||
Other expenses | 1,662 | 2,099 | 6,841 | 6,948 | ||||||||||||
Total Noninterest Expense | 13,215 | 13,758 | 53,478 | 52,921 | ||||||||||||
Income Before Income Tax | 7,750 | 6,131 | 27,658 | 26,498 | ||||||||||||
Income Tax Expense | 1,066 | 1,119 | 4,018 | 4,456 | ||||||||||||
Net Income | $ | 6,684 | $ | 5,012 | $ | 23,640 | $ | 22,042 | ||||||||
Basic Earnings Per Share | $ | 0.89 | $ | 0.67 | $ | 3.15 | $ | 2.87 | ||||||||
Diluted Earnings Per Share | $ | 0.89 | $ | 0.66 | $ | 3.15 | $ | 2.86 |
Other Selected Financial Highlights | ||||||||||||||||||||
Quarterly | ||||||||||||||||||||
Earnings | 2022 4th Qtr. | 2022 3rd Qtr. | 2022 2nd Qtr. | 2022 1st Qtr. | 2021 4th Qtr. | |||||||||||||||
(in thousands except per share data) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Net interest income | $ | 17,366 | $ | 17,338 | $ | 16,289 | $ | 16,321 | $ | 15,745 | ||||||||||
Provision for loan losses | 150 | 100 | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||
Noninterest income | 3,749 | 3,047 | 3,430 | 3,845 | 4,144 | |||||||||||||||
Noninterest expense | 13,215 | 13,416 | 13,157 | 13,690 | 13,758 | |||||||||||||||
Net income before federal income tax expense | 7,750 | 6,869 | 6,562 | 6,476 | 6,131 | |||||||||||||||
Income tax expense | 1,066 | 1,056 | 947 | 948 | 1,119 | |||||||||||||||
Net income | 6,684 | 5,813 | 5,615 | 5,528 | 5,012 | |||||||||||||||
Basic earnings per share | 0.89 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.67 | |||||||||||||||
Diluted earnings per share | 0.89 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.66 |
End of period balances | 2022 4th Qtr. | 2022 3rd Qtr. | 2022 2nd Qtr. | 2022 1st Qtr. | 2021 4th Qtr. | |||||||||||||||
(in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Gross loans | $ | 1,194,616 | $ | 1,141,319 | $ | 1,129,439 | $ | 1,040,856 | $ | 1,068,832 | ||||||||||
Loans held for sale (1) | 4,834 | 8,848 | 10,628 | 13,450 | 9,351 | |||||||||||||||
Loans to other financial institutions (2) | - | 70 | 37,422 | - | 42,632 | |||||||||||||||
PPP loans (3) | - | - | 1,758 | 8,476 | 33,129 | |||||||||||||||
Core loans (gross loans excluding 1, 2, and 3 above) | 1,189,782 | 1,132,401 | 1,079,631 | 1,018,930 | 983,720 | |||||||||||||||
Allowance for loan losses | 7,619 | 7,457 | 7,416 | 7,601 | 7,688 | |||||||||||||||
Securities available for sale | 546,897 | 546,627 | 582,987 | 657,887 | 1,116,264 | |||||||||||||||
Securities held to maturity | 425,906 | 428,205 | 429,675 | 429,918 | - | |||||||||||||||
Other interest-earning assets | 15,447 | 21,744 | 9,532 | 62,945 | 9,751 | |||||||||||||||
Total earning assets (before allowance) | 2,182,866 | 2,137,895 | 2,151,633 | 2,191,606 | 2,194,847 | |||||||||||||||
Total assets | 2,385,914 | 2,363,529 | 2,360,205 | 2,376,778 | 2,366,682 | |||||||||||||||
Noninterest-bearing deposits | 599,579 | 599,360 | 578,927 | 565,657 | 560,931 | |||||||||||||||
Interest-bearing deposits | 1,518,424 | 1,557,294 | 1,559,577 | 1,579,944 | 1,491,363 | |||||||||||||||
Total deposits | 2,118,003 | 2,156,654 | 2,138,504 | 2,145,601 | 2,052,294 | |||||||||||||||
Total subordinated debt | 35,262 | 35,201 | 35,140 | 35,078 | 35,017 | |||||||||||||||
Total borrowed funds | 50,000 | - | 7,000 | - | 50,000 | |||||||||||||||
Total interest-bearing liabilities | 1,603,686 | 1,592,495 | 1,601,717 | 1,615,022 | 1,576,380 | |||||||||||||||
Shareholders' equity | 168,874 | 156,657 | 166,460 | 191,118 | 221,669 |
Average Balances | 2022 4th Qtr. | 2022 3rd Qtr. | 2022 2nd Qtr. | 2022 1st Qtr. | 2021 4th Qtr. | |||||||||||||||
(in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Loans | $ | 1,169,605 | $ | 1,128,679 | $ | 1,076,934 | $ | 1,037,646 | $ | 1,019,966 | ||||||||||
Securities | 1,072,594 | 1,079,584 | 1,098,419 | 1,130,681 | 1,079,616 | |||||||||||||||
Other interest-earning assets | 14,809 | 45,210 | 40,728 | 36,460 | 29,999 | |||||||||||||||
Total earning assets (before allowance) | 2,257,008 | 2,253,473 | 2,216,081 | 2,204,787 | 2,129,581 | |||||||||||||||
Total assets | 2,373,851 | 2,389,550 | 2,361,479 | 2,375,864 | 2,298,579 | |||||||||||||||
Noninterest-bearing deposits | 605,318 | 593,793 | 578,943 | 553,267 | 556,214 | |||||||||||||||
Interest-bearing deposits | 1,522,510 | 1,576,240 | 1,555,721 | 1,548,685 | 1,472,022 | |||||||||||||||
Total deposits | 2,127,828 | 2,170,033 | 2,134,664 | 2,101,952 | 2,028,236 | |||||||||||||||
Total subordinated debt | 35,230 | 35,168 | 35,095 | 35,342 | 35,674 | |||||||||||||||
Total borrowed funds | 36,773 | 2,414 | 5,765 | 10,239 | 8,010 | |||||||||||||||
Total interest-bearing liabilities | 1,594,513 | 1,613,822 | 1,596,581 | 1,594,266 | 1,515,706 | |||||||||||||||
Shareholders' equity | 160,284 | 164,758 | 177,085 | 206,280 | 221,076 |
Performance Ratios | 2022 4th Qtr. | 2022 3rd Qtr. | 2022 2nd Qtr. | 2022 1st Qtr. | 2021 4th Qtr. | |||||||||||||||
Return on average assets | 1.13 | % | 0.97 | % | 0.95 | % | 0.93 | % | 0.87 | % | ||||||||||
Return on average equity | 16.68 | % | 14.11 | % | 12.68 | % | 10.72 | % | 9.07 | % | ||||||||||
Return on average tangible common equity | 26.63 | % | 21.96 | % | 18.87 | % | 14.85 | % | 12.16 | % | ||||||||||
Net interest margin (fully tax-equivalent) | 3.15 | % | 3.15 | % | 3.02 | % | 3.04 | % | 3.04 | % | ||||||||||
Efficiency ratio | 60.15 | % | 61.06 | % | 61.43 | % | 64.37 | % | 66.15 | % | ||||||||||
Cost of funds | 0.59 | % | 0.35 | % | 0.25 | % | 0.21 | % | 0.21 | % | ||||||||||
Cost of deposits | 0.47 | % | 0.29 | % | 0.19 | % | 0.15 | % | 0.15 | % | ||||||||||
Shareholders' equity to total assets | 7.08 | % | 6.63 | % | 7.05 | % | 8.04 | % | 9.37 | % | ||||||||||
Tangible common equity to tangible assets | 4.57 | % | 4.07 | % | 4.49 | % | 5.51 | % | 6.85 | % | ||||||||||
Full-time equivalent employees | 376 | 383 | 380 | 376 | 374 |
Capital Ratios ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc. | 2022 4th Qtr. | 2022 3rd Qtr. | 2022 2nd Qtr. | 2022 1st Qtr. | 2021 4th Qtr. | |||||||||||||||
Total capital (to risk weighted assets) | 13.8 | % | 13.7 | % | 13.8 | % | 14.6 | % | 14.4 | % | ||||||||||
Common equity Tier 1 capital (to risk weighted assets) | 11.1 | % | 10.9 | % | 11.0 | % | 11.5 | % | 11.3 | % | ||||||||||
Tier 1 capital (to risk weighted assets) | 11.4 | % | 11.2 | % | 11.3 | % | 11.9 | % | 11.6 | % | ||||||||||
Tier 1 capital (to average assets) | 7.9 | % | 7.6 | % | 7.5 | % | 7.3 | % | 7.4 | % | ||||||||||
Capital Ratios ChoiceOne Bank | 2022 4th Qtr. | 2022 3rd Qtr. | 2022 2nd Qtr. | 2022 1st Qtr. | 2021 4th Qtr. | |||||||||||||||
Total capital (to risk weighted assets) | 13.0 | % | 12.8 | % | 12.7 | % | 13.3 | % | 12.9 | % | ||||||||||
Common equity Tier 1 capital (to risk weighted assets) | 12.5 | % | 12.3 | % | 12.2 | % | 12.8 | % | 12.3 | % | ||||||||||
Tier 1 capital (to risk weighted assets) | 12.5 | % | 12.3 | % | 12.2 | % | 12.8 | % | 12.3 | % | ||||||||||
Tier 1 capital (to average assets) | 8.7 | % | 8.3 | % | 8.1 | % | 7.9 | % | 7.8 | % |
Asset Quality | 2022 4th Qtr. | 2022 3rd Qtr. | 2022 2nd Qtr. | 2022 1st Qtr. | 2021 4th Qtr. | ||||||||||
(in thousands) | |||||||||||||||
Net loan charge-offs (recoveries) | $ | (12) | $ | 59 | $ | 185 | $ | 87 | $ | 67 | |||||
Annualized net loan charge-offs (recoveries) to average loans | 0.00 | % | 0.02 | % | 0.07 | % | 0.03 | % | 0.03 | % | |||||
Allowance for loan losses | $ | 7,619 | $ | 7,457 | $ | 7,416 | $ | 7,601 | $ | 7,688 | |||||
Allowance to loans (excludes held for sale) | 0.64 | % | 0.66 | % | 0.66 | % | 0.74 | % | 0.73 | % | |||||
Non-Accruing loans | $ | 1,263 | $ | 1,197 | $ | 1,242 | $ | 1,167 | $ | 1,727 | |||||
Non performing loans (includes OREO) | 2,666 | 2,628 | 2,714 | 4,852 | 5,737 | ||||||||||
Nonperforming loans to total loans (excludes held for sale) | 0.22 | % | 0.23 | % | 0.24 | % | 0.47 | % | 0.54 | % | |||||
Nonperforming assets to total assets | 0.11 | % | 0.11 | % | 0.11 | % | 0.20 | % | 0.24 | % |
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SOURCE ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc.
Uncategorized
Schedule for Week of January 29, 2023
The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.The FOMC meets this week, and the FO…

Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.
The FOMC meets this week, and the FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for November. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.
9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November.
This graph shows the Year over year change in the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 6.9% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 44.9, down from 45.1 in December.
10:00 AM: The Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 235,000 added in December.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in construction spending.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.
Job openings decreased in November to 10.458 million from 10.512 million in October
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.0, down from 48.4 in December.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the December sales rate.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 200 thousand initial claims, up from 186 thousand last week.

There were 223,000 jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.
This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.
The pandemic employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, as of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.24 million above pre-pandemic levels.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, up from 49.6 in December. recession unemployment pandemic fomc fed recession unemployment
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US gov’t $1.5T debt interest will be equal 3X Bitcoin market cap in 2023
The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.
…

The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.
Commentators believe that Bitcoin (BTC) bulls do not need to wait long for the United States to start printing money again.
The latest analysis of U.S. macroeconomic data has led one market strategist to predict quantitative tightening (QT) ending to avoid a “catastrophic debt crisis.”
Analyst: Fed will have “no choice” with rate cuts
The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to remove liquidity from the financial system to fight inflation, reversing years of COVID-19-era money printing.
While interest rate hikes look set to continue declining in scope, some now believe that the Fed will soon have only one option — to halt the process altogether.
“Why the Fed will have no choice but to cut or risk a catastrophic debt crisis,” Sven Henrich, founder of NorthmanTrader, summarized on Jan. 27.
“Higher for longer is a fantasy not rooted in math reality.”
Henrich uploaded a chart showing interest payments on current U.S. government expenditure, now hurtling toward $1 trillion a year.
A dizzying number, the interest comes from U.S. government debt being over $31 trillion, with the Fed printing trillions of dollars since March 2020. Since then, interest payments have increased by 42%, Henrich noted.
The phenomenon has not gone unnoticed elsewhere in crypto circles. Popular Twitter account Wall Street Silver compared the interest payments as a portion of U.S. tax revenue.
“US paid $853 Billion in Interest for $31 Trillion Debt in 2022; More than Defense Budget in 2023. If the Fed keeps rates at these levels (or higher) we will be at $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion in interest paid on the debt,” it wrote.
“The US govt collects about $4.9 trillion in taxes.”

Such a scenario might be music to the ears of those with significant Bitcoin exposure. Periods of “easy” liquidity have corresponded with increased appetite for risk assets across the mainstream investment world.
The Fed’s unwinding of that policy accompanied Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market, and a “pivot” in interest rate hikes is thus seen by many as the first sign of the “good” times returning.
Crypto pain before pleasure?
Not everyone, however, agrees that the impact on risk assets, including crypto, will be all-out positive prior to that.
Related: Bitcoin ‘so bullish’ at $23K as analyst reveals new BTC price metrics
As Cointelegraph reported, ex-BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes that chaos will come first, tanking Bitcoin and altcoins to new lows before any sort of long-term renaissance kicks in.
If the Fed faces a complete lack of options to avoid a meltdown, Hayes believes that the damage will have already been done before QT gives way to quantitative easing.
“This scenario is less ideal because it would mean that everyone who is buying risky assets now would be in store for massive drawdowns in performance. 2023 could be just as bad as 2022 until the Fed pivots,” he wrote in a blog post this month.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
bitcoin crypto btc covid-19 cryptoUncategorized
Stay Ahead of GDP: 3 Charts to Become a Smarter Trader
When concerns of a recession are front and center, investors tend to pay more attention to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The Q4 2022 GDP report…

When concerns of a recession are front and center, investors tend to pay more attention to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The Q4 2022 GDP report showed the U.S. economy grew by 2.9% in the quarter, and Wall Street wasn't disappointed. The day the report was released, the market closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJIA) up 0.61%, the S&P 500 index ($SPX) up 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) up 1.76%. Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Energy were the top-performing S&P sectors.
Add to the GDP report strong earnings from Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and a mega announcement from Chevron Corp. (CVX)—raising dividends and a $75 billion buyback round—and you get a strong day in the stock markets.
Why is the GDP Report Important?
If a country's GDP is growing faster than expected, it could be a positive indication of economic strength. It means that consumer spending, business investment, and exports, among other factors, are going strong. But the GDP is just one indicator, and one indicator doesn't necessarily tell the whole story. It's a good idea to look at other indicators, such as the unemployment rate, inflation, and consumer sentiment, before making a conclusion.
Inflation appears to be cooling, but the labor market continues to be strong. The Fed has stated in many of its previous meetings that it'll be closely watching the labor market. So that'll be a sticky point as we get close to the next Fed meeting. Consumer spending is also strong, according to the GDP report. But that could have been because of increased auto sales and spending on services such as health care, personal care, and utilities. Retail sales released earlier in January indicated that holiday sales were lower.
There's a chance we could see retail sales slowing in Q1 2023 as some households run out of savings that were accumulated during the pandemic. This is something to keep an eye on going forward, as a slowdown in retail sales could mean increases in inventories. And this is something that could decrease economic activity.
Overall, the recent GDP report indicates the U.S. economy is strong, although some economists feel we'll probably see some downside in 2023, though not a recession. But the one drawback of the GDP report is that it's lagging. It comes out after the fact. Wouldn't it be great if you had known this ahead of time so you could position your trades to take advantage of the rally? While there's no way to know with 100% accuracy, there are ways to identify probable events.
3 Ways To Stay Ahead of the Curve
Instead of waiting for three months to get next quarter's GDP report, you can gauge the potential strength or weakness of the overall U.S. economy. Steven Sears, in his book The Indomitable Investor, suggested looking at these charts:
- Copper prices
- High-yield corporate bonds
- Small-cap stocks
Copper: An Economic Indicator
You may not hear much about copper, but it's used in the manufacture of several goods and in construction. Given that manufacturing and construction make up a big chunk of economic activity, the red metal is more important than you may have thought. If you look at the chart of copper futures ($COPPER) you'll see that, in October 2022, the price of copper was trading sideways, but, in November, its price rose and trended quite a bit higher. This would have been an indication of a strengthening economy.
CHART 1: COPPER CONTINUOUS FUTURES CONTRACTS. Copper prices have been rising since November 2022. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.
High-Yield Bonds: Risk On Indicator
The higher the risk, the higher the yield. That's the premise behind high-yield bonds. In short, companies that are leveraged, smaller, or just starting to grow may not have the solid balance sheets that more established companies are likely to have. If the economy slows down, investors are likely to sell the high-yield bonds and pick up the safer U.S. Treasury bonds.
Why the flight to safety? It's because when the economy is sluggish, the companies that issue the high-yield bonds tend to find it difficult to service their debts. When the economy is expanding, the opposite happens—they tend to perform better.
The chart below of the Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index ($DJCB) shows that, since the end of October 2022, the index trended higher. Similar to copper prices, high-yield corporate bond activity was also indicating economic expansion. You'll see similar action in charts of high-yield bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK).
CHART 2: HIGH-YIELD BONDS TRENDING HIGHER. The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index ($DJCB) has been trending higher since end of October 2022.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.
Small-Cap Stocks: They're Sensitive
Pull up a chart of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and you'll see similar price action (see chart 3). Since mid-October, small-cap stocks (the Russell 2000 index is made up of 2000 small companies) have been moving higher.
CHART 3: SMALL-CAP STOCKS TRENDING HIGHER. When the economy is expanding, small-cap stocks trend higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.
Three's Company
If all three of these indicators are showing strength, you can expect the GDP number to be strong. There are times when the GDP number may not impact the markets, but, when inflation is a problem and the Fed is trying to curb it by raising interest rates, the GDP number tends to impact the markets.
This scenario is likely to play out in 2023, so it would be worth your while to set up a GDP Tracker ChartList. Want a live link to the charts used in this article? They're all right here.
Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
Director, Site Content
StockCharts.com
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
recession unemployment consumer sentiment pandemic economic expansion treasury bonds bonds dow jones sp 500 nasdaq stocks fed link etf small-cap russell 2000 recession gdp interest rates consumer spending unemployment stock markets-
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