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CEO Confidence Picked Up in Q1, but CEOs Remain Pessimistic Entering 2023

CEO Confidence Picked Up in Q1, but CEOs Remain Pessimistic Entering 2023
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Feb. 9, 2023

Confidence Improved from 2022’s Lows, but Still Signals Caution
NEW YORK, Feb. 9, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Measure of CEO …

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CEO Confidence Picked Up in Q1, but CEOs Remain Pessimistic Entering 2023

PR Newswire

Confidence Improved from 2022's Lows, but Still Signals Caution

NEW YORK, Feb. 9, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council stands at 43 to start 2023, up from 32 in the final quarter of 2022. The Measure's improvement early in Q1 2023 represents an uptick from the extreme weakness seen last year, which brought it to lows comparable to the depths of the COVID-19 recession in 2020. However, it is still below a reading of 50, which suggests CEOs remain cautious at the start of 2023.  (A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses.) A total of 142 CEOs participated in the Q1 survey, which was fielded between January 17 through 30. 

In the survey, 93 percent of CEOs still report they are preparing for a US recession over the next 12-18 months (compared to 98 percent in the Q4 2022 survey). They also still expect that the recession will be brief and shallow with limited global spillover (86%). However, the percentage who are preparing for a deep US recession dropped from 13 percent in Q4 2022 to 7 percent in Q1 2023, signaling that some CEOs are somewhat less pessimistic. Nonetheless, 55 percent of CEOs believe that a global recession is the greatest challenge for their companies.

"CEO confidence rose markedly between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, but continued to signal a degree of pessimism among CEOs," said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist of The Conference Board. "CEOs' assessments of both current and expected economic conditions picked up from 2022's extreme lows, but still are far from 2021's peak. Roughly 6 in 10 CEOs still say economic conditions are worse than they were six months ago. However, the proportion of CEOs expecting economic conditions to worsen over the next six months declined sharply from 74% last quarter to 48% in Q1, with just 33% now expecting conditions in their own industry to deteriorate."   

"CEOs continue to see dichotomies in economic conditions and what it means for the future," said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Trustee of The Conference Board. "While CEOs are still girding for a recession in 2023, they continue to experience a tight labor market. Notably, 81% of CEOs plan wage increases of three percent or more, and most expect to either expand (37%) or maintain (44%) the sizes of their payroll headcounts in the next 12 months. Cost pressures remain high, but there has been some easing in transportation and energy costs. Regarding managing elevated input prices, nearly 6 in 10 say they are passing higher costs on to consumers. Generally, going forward, CEOs will monitor consumer price inflation and GDP as gauges of the health of the US economy in 2023."

Current Conditions 
CEOs' assessment of general economic conditions improved at the start of Q1:

  • About 16% of CEOs reported economic conditions were better compared to six months ago, up from 5% in Q4.
  • 55% said conditions were worse, down from 81%.

CEOs were more optimistic about conditions in their own industries to start Q1:

  • 23% of CEOs reported that conditions in their industries were better compared to six months ago, up from 15%.
  • 43% said conditions in their own industries were worse, down from 52%.

Future Conditions 
CEOs' expectations about the short-term economic outlook improved to start Q1:

  • 18% of CEOs said they expected economic conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 5% in Q4.
  • 48% expected conditions to worsen, down from 73%.

CEOs' expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries also improved to start Q1:

  • 26% of CEOs expected conditions in their own industry to improve over the next six months, up from 19%.
  • 33% expect conditions to worsen, down from 54%.

Employment, Recruiting, Wages, and Capital Spending

  • Employment: 37% of CEOs expect to expand their workforce over the next 12 months, down from 44% in Q4.
  • Hiring Qualified People: 57% of CEOs report some problems attracting qualified workers, somewhat improved compared to 68% in Q4. Of those, 17% report difficulties that cut across the organization, rather than concentrated in a few key areas—down from 39% in Q4.
  • Wages: 81% of CEOs expect to increase wages by 3% or more over the next year, down slightly from 85% in Q4.
  • Capital Spending: 14% of CEOs expect their capital budgets to increase by more than 10 percent over the next year, versus 10% last quarter. 

US Recession Outlook:
Majority of CEOs are preparing for a brief and shallow US recession, with limited global spillover, over the next 12-18 months.

Input Costs:
Majority of CEOs are managing input costs by passing them onto customers while a close second action was cutting operating, research, and/or general overhead.

Easing in Cost Pressures:
Elevated wage pressures persist, but there are signs of easing in costs for transportation and energy.

Managing Labor Costs:
A slight majority of CEOs said they are still increasing wages across the board but are managing rising labor costs through other means; almost half said they are reducing hiring plans, including selective hiring freezes.

Top Watched Gauges of the US Economy:
CEOs said they will be watching consumer inflation and GDP as important gauges of the health of the US economy in 2023.

Biggest Challenge in 2023:
Majority of CEOs see global recession as the biggest challenge facing their company in 2023.

Source: CEO Confidence Survey, First Quarter 2023/The Conference Board. 
The Q1 survey was fielded during 1/17 through 1/30.

About The Conference Board 
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

About The Business Council 
The Business Council is a forum for the CEOs of the world's largest multinational corporations across all industry sectors. Members gather several times each year to share best practices, network and engage in intellectually provocative, enlightening discussions with peers and thought-leaders in business, government, academia, science, technology and other disciplines. Through the medium of discussion, the Council seeks to foster greater understanding of the major opportunities and challenges facing business, and to create consensus for solutions. The Business Council is a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (6) tax-exempt status. The Business Council does not lobby. Visit The Business Council's website at www.thebusinesscouncil.org 

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One more airline cracks down on lounge crowding in a way you won’t like

Qantas Airways is increasing the price of accessing its network of lounges by as much as 17%.

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Over the last two years, multiple airlines have dealt with crowding in their lounges. While they are designed as a luxury experience for a small subset of travelers, high numbers of people taking a trip post-pandemic as well as the different ways they are able to gain access through status or certain credit cards made it difficult for some airlines to keep up with keeping foods stocked, common areas clean and having enough staff to serve bar drinks at the rate that customers expect them.

In the fall of 2023, Delta Air Lines  (DAL)  caught serious traveler outcry after announcing that it was cracking down on crowding by raising how much one needs to spend for lounge access and limiting the number of times one can enter those lounges.

Related: Competitors pushed Delta to backtrack on its lounge and loyalty program changes

Some airlines saw the outcry with Delta as their chance to reassure customers that they would not raise their fees while others waited for the storm to pass to quietly implement their own increases.

A photograph captures a Qantas Airways lounge in Sydney, Australia.

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This is how much more you'll have to pay for Qantas lounge access

Australia's flagship carrier Qantas Airways  (QUBSF)  is the latest airline to announce that it would raise the cost accessing the 24 lounges across the country as well as the 600 international lounges available at airports across the world through partner airlines.

More Travel:

Unlike other airlines which grant access primarily after reaching frequent flyer status, Qantas also sells it through a membership — starting from April 18, 2024, prices will rise from $600 Australian dollars ($392 USD)  to $699 AUD ($456 USD) for one year, $1,100 ($718 USD) to $1,299 ($848 USD) for two years and $2,000 AUD ($1,304) to lock in the rate for four years.

Those signing up for lounge access for the first time also currently pay a joining fee of $99 AUD ($65 USD) that will rise to $129 AUD ($85 USD).

The airline also allows customers to purchase their membership with Qantas Points they collect through frequent travel; the membership fees are also being raised by the equivalent amount in points in what adds up to as much as 17% — from 308,000 to 399,900 to lock in access for four years.

Airline says hikes will 'cover cost increases passed on from suppliers'

"This is the first time the Qantas Club membership fees have increased in seven years and will help cover cost increases passed on from a range of suppliers over that time," a Qantas spokesperson confirmed to Simple Flying. "This follows a reduction in the membership fees for several years during the pandemic."

The spokesperson said the gains from the increases will go both towards making up for inflation-related costs and keeping existing lounges looking modern by updating features like furniture and décor.

While the price increases also do not apply for those who earned lounge access through frequent flyer status or change what it takes to earn that status, Qantas is also introducing even steeper increases for those renewing a membership or adding additional features such as spouse and partner memberships.

In some cases, the cost of these features will nearly double from what members are paying now.

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Star Wars icon gives his support to Disney, Bob Iger

Disney shareholders have a huge decision to make on April 3.

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Disney's  (DIS)  been facing some headwinds up top, but its leadership just got backing from one of the company's more prominent investors.

Star Wars creator George Lucas put out of statement in support of the company's current leadership team, led by CEO Bob Iger, ahead of the April 3 shareholders meeting which will see investors vote on the company's 12-member board.

"Creating magic is not for amateurs," Lucas said in a statement. "When I sold Lucasfilm just over a decade ago, I was delighted to become a Disney shareholder because of my long-time admiration for its iconic brand and Bob Iger’s leadership. When Bob recently returned to the company during a difficult time, I was relieved. No one knows Disney better. I remain a significant shareholder because I have full faith and confidence in the power of Disney and Bob’s track record of driving long-term value. I have voted all of my shares for Disney’s 12 directors and urge other shareholders to do the same."

Related: Disney stands against Nelson Peltz as leadership succession plan heats up

Lucasfilm was acquired by Disney for $4 billion in 2012 — notably under the first term of Iger. He received over 37 million in shares of Disney during the acquisition.

Lucas' statement seems to be an attempt to push investors away from the criticism coming from The Trian Partners investment group, led by Nelson Peltz. The group, owns about $3 million in shares of the media giant, is pushing two candidates for positions on the board, which are Peltz and former Disney CFO Jay Rasulo.

HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 14: George Lucas attends the Los Angeles Premiere of LucasFilms' "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" at Dolby Theatre on June 14, 2023 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic)

Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/Getty Images

Peltz and Co. have called out a pair of Disney directors — Michael Froman and Maria Elena Lagomasino — for their lack of experience in the media space.

Related: Women's basketball is gaining ground, but is March Madness ready to rival the men's game?

Blackwells Capital is also pushing three of its candidates to take seats during the early April shareholder meeting, though Reuters has reported that the firm has been supportive of the company's current direction.

Disney has struggled in recent years amid the changes in media and the effects of the pandemic — which triggered the return of Iger at the helm in late 2022. After going through mass layoffs in the spring of 2023 and focusing on key growth brands, the company has seen a steady recovery with its stock up over 25% year-to-date and around 40% for the last six months.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Another airline is making lounge fees more expensive

Qantas Airways is increasing the price of accessing its network of lounges by as much as 17%.

Published

on

Over the last two years, multiple airlines have dealt with crowding in their lounges. While they are designed as a luxury experience for a small subset of travelers, high numbers of people taking a trip post-pandemic as well as the different ways they are able to gain access through status or certain credit cards made it difficult for some airlines to keep up with keeping foods stocked, common areas clean and having enough staff to serve bar drinks at the rate that customers expect them.

In the fall of 2023, Delta Air Lines  (DAL)  caught serious traveler outcry after announcing that it was cracking down on crowding by raising how much one needs to spend for lounge access and limiting the number of times one can enter those lounges.

Related: Competitors pushed Delta to backtrack on its lounge and loyalty program changes

Some airlines saw the outcry with Delta as their chance to reassure customers that they would not raise their fees while others waited for the storm to pass to quietly implement their own increases.

A photograph captures a Qantas Airways lounge in Sydney, Australia.

Shutterstock

This is how much more you'll have to pay for Qantas lounge access

Australia's flagship carrier Qantas Airways  (QUBSF)  is the latest airline to announce that it would raise the cost accessing the 24 lounges across the country as well as the 600 international lounges available at airports across the world through partner airlines.

More Travel:

Unlike other airlines which grant access primarily after reaching frequent flyer status, Qantas also sells it through a membership — starting from April 18, 2024, prices will rise from $600 Australian dollars ($392 USD)  to $699 AUD ($456 USD) for one year, $1,100 ($718 USD) to $1,299 ($848 USD) for two years and $2,000 AUD ($1,304) to lock in the rate for four years.

Those signing up for lounge access for the first time also currently pay a joining fee of $99 AUD ($65 USD) that will rise to $129 AUD ($85 USD).

The airline also allows customers to purchase their membership with Qantas Points they collect through frequent travel; the membership fees are also being raised by the equivalent amount in points in what adds up to as much as 17% — from 308,000 to 399,900 to lock in access for four years.

Airline says hikes will 'cover cost increases passed on from suppliers'

"This is the first time the Qantas Club membership fees have increased in seven years and will help cover cost increases passed on from a range of suppliers over that time," a Qantas spokesperson confirmed to Simple Flying. "This follows a reduction in the membership fees for several years during the pandemic."

The spokesperson said the gains from the increases will go both towards making up for inflation-related costs and keeping existing lounges looking modern by updating features like furniture and décor.

While the price increases also do not apply for those who earned lounge access through frequent flyer status or change what it takes to earn that status, Qantas is also introducing even steeper increases for those renewing a membership or adding additional features such as spouse and partner memberships.

In some cases, the cost of these features will nearly double from what members are paying now.

Read More

Continue Reading

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