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CEO Brian Chesky On Airbnb’s IPO And The Pandemic

Brian Chesky speaks with CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” today on the company’s IPO, and the impact of the pandemic on the business and the IPO. Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more WHEN: Today, Thursday, December 10 WHERE: CNBC’s…

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Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky

Brian Chesky speaks with CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” today on the company’s IPO, and the impact of the pandemic on the business and the IPO.

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Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

WHEN: Today, Thursday, December 10

WHERE: CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street”

Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Airbnb co-founder and CEO Brian Chesky.

Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky on IPO ahead of the first trade

Airbnb co-founder and CEO Brian Chesky also spoke with “Squawk Box” earlier today for a separate interview and following are links to video on CNBC.com:

Airbnb co-founder and CEO on starting the company

Airbnb CEO on how the pandemic impacted business and the IPO

All references must be sourced to CNBC.

DEIRDRE BOSA: Hey Carl, thanks for that. And hello Brian, good morning. What a wild year it's been.

BRIAN CHESKY: Oh my god, it's been quite a year. I did not think when this year started it would be like this.

BOSA: Yeah, neither did I. To be honest, at one point, not that long ago you saw your evaluation slash to some $18 billion. You priced above your range though you're looking at an evaluation right now of $47 billion. Do you as CEO and what you'll have to deliver worry that valuations have gotten out of hand?

CHESKY: You know, I don't think I'm gonna worry much more than in April and May when we saw our business drop 80% in eight weeks in the middle of a pandemic. So, I'm just, I just want to say I'm so grateful to be here today, so fortunate and I wouldn't be here if it hadn't been for all the people who helped us, our guests our hosts and everyone who helped build Airbnb.

BOSA: At the same time, Brian, those heightened expectations and this really hot IPO climate that we find ourselves in that could perhaps lead you, or expectations to grow quicker than you had planned and this year as we've talked about has really been a year of cost cutting. You guys had to lay off about a quarter of your workforce. So, what is next year look like? Do you bring back some new priorities, ramp up investments that you scaled back this year?

CHESKY: Well, I mean, this year, one of the things we had to do is get really focused and we've gotten focused on our core host community that offers homes and experiences. And, you know, when the world is ready to travel again, we will be ready. And so, we are focused on making sure that our hosts are ready to welcome guests, when they're ready to leave their houses and it's safe to do so and so, I mean, we are ready regardless of what happens with this IPO. We are going to be ready.

BOSA: Right and so, as you look ahead to next year in 2022 as the economy reopens and people do travel again, what are you prioritizing in terms of the business?

CHESKY: Well, you know, once again, like when I started Airbnb with my two co-founders, we are in a recession. And we think that millions of people are going to turn to Airbnb for economic assistance and I think hosting could be a benefit so we want to really help unlock hosting all over the world. And then we want to continue to make our product much easier. You know now people are coming to Airbnb, they don't even necessarily have a destination in mind or dates because they're flexible. We're all obviously on Zoom and so people are saying I want to go anywhere 300 miles around me, what can you show me? And so now we're going to be getting a little bit more in the game of inspiration and matching people to the perfect home and experience for them.

BOSA: Right, but it sounds like you're still going to be focusing on your core which is home-sharing again. This year, you did scale back on some of those other projects like real estate and hotel listings. But something that you didn’t scale back on was experiences. It sounds like you guys are still moving full-fledge ahead however we didn’t get a whole lot of detail regarding experiences in the S-1. Is this something that you plan on giving more to investors, the level of profitability, how much in terms of revenue experiences takes up, what terms of investment you're looking at for this unit?

CHESKY: Yeah, I mean over time we will continue to share more about experiences and I will just say, you know, in life, timing is everything and I thought this was going to be a breakout year for experiences, but of course with a pandemic and social distancing, we had to put the product on pause. But I think you know next year, when it is safe to do so we can only sit at home and watch so many shows on Netflix eventually we're going to want to get outside and do some activities. And one of the things our guests tell us is they love experiences, at least from a customer satisfaction standpoint, even more than homes. So, 82% of our guests will leave a review in a home, leave a five-star review, but experiences, it’s more than 90%. So, this is something we are very focused on and I think it's just a matter of timing.

JIM CRAMER: Oh, Brian, it's Jim. First, congratulations.

CHESKY: Thank you. Thank you.

CRAMER: Amazing, amazing run. You know in the days when it got ugly, it was a you and me believing in you. Let me ask you something. How did we miss it? How did we miss that people wouldn't want to go into an elevator in a hotel and afraid to push a button or be in a little crowd and didn't want to be talking to someone when they check in, how did we not figure that you know what, a thing of Clorox you have your own house, you clean it up, that it was safe. That's the thing that just drove me crazy that people didn’t immediately get well, I got a place, I can go Airbnb, that's clean that I won't get sick at.

CHESKY: Well, I think Jim, it's a really good point. A lot of times we try to look at what happened in the history to project the future. For example, a lot of people were expecting hotels to reopen sooner, and the reason why was after 911 in 2008, business travel recovered before leisure travel. But, of course, in the world of Zoom, the future does not look at all like the past, and of course in a pandemic people didn't want to be in crowded lobbies obviously they wanted the privacy of a home and I think people want to be with the people they can connect and love with. And obviously, a home is a really good way to do that. So, you know, I think, I think that kind of worked out for a lot of people and I think that explains some of our rebound in Q3.

CRAMER: What you had to do was very tough. I know that you took it to heart and of course, you're human but it really crushed you, 25% employees laid off. Can you bring those people back? Did you bring them back? And did people get stock in this what's going to end up being a great deal?

CHESKY: Yeah, I mean, one of the things we did is, everyone that was laid off was invited to opt into an alumni directory. Basically, we said we will publish your information if you opt in and we'll let recruiters reach out to you. We did that and more than half a million people visited their profiles. So, a number of them got jobs, some of them have been hired back, but as this business continues to recover, we would love to continue to welcome more employees back and yes, anyone that had stock without obviously able to keep whatever stock would have been invested at that point.

BOSA: Brian, something that caught my eye and a number of folks in your IPO perspective is that Airbnb gets about 90% of its traffic organically through direct or unpaid channels. I wonder what kind of opportunity does that open up for you in the future in terms of your ambitions, even moonshots? Is there something in payments, advertising, perhaps your own cryptocurrency?

CHESKY: Well, I mean, Deirdre, you know, yes it's very important that the reason around 90% of our traffic was direct because we have a brand that's kind of used as a noun or verb around the world and that's because people are really passionate about the product we offer that's unique, you can't get anywhere else, obviously, and so that means when people come direct to Airbnb, again we can be much more in the business of inspiration. People come to Airbnb to figure out where they want to travel to, they can and so this is a really, really big opportunity, and we've really custom built this platform specifically for the Airbnb way of traveling. It's a whole new category. And so, I think we've done a lot of the heavy lifting to get here so yes Deirdre, I think there's a lot of opportunity for us to go in a number of different directions.

BOSA: What specifically are you looking at something in advertising as you say you sort of created this ecosystem, how do you now keep people within or bring more businesses into the ecosystem to take greater advantage of that?

CHESKY: Well I mean there's a couple things that we're looking at, number one, we provide tools and services to allow anyone to be a host and you know now, you can be a host for five minutes from your phone, and we want to continue to develop and unlock new tools and services to bring millions of more people on the platform to be hosts. But on the guest side, we think there's a lot of opportunities as well. For example, something a lot of people don't know, last year 14% of our business where stays longer than 28 days, that's now growing more than 50%. And so, what's happening is traveling and living are starting to blur together in this world of flexibility. People aren't just going to the same 20 cities, they're not just traveling for business for two nights, they're actually starting to live all over the world and they're doing it on Airbnb and that opens the door to so many different possibilities, services, and offerings that we can now do because people really want to feel grounded where they're living.

BOSA: Hmm, that's a, that's a fascinating stat that those stays are getting longer perhaps there's opportunity in property management. I want to switch topics a little bit and ask you about China which has been a bit of a hot button issue. Is there any point at which you would decide that being in China operating in China is not worth it, say for example the government wanted to do more with the host information that you have to supply to them.

CHESKY: Well, I mean, we made a decision a number of years ago that it that we were going to have standards of privacy in China that were consistent with what hotel companies like Marriott and Hilton do. So, if you go to a Hilton in China or a Marriott, they have a certain standard of information they share and we said we will comply with that level of standard because the American consumer seems to be comfortable with that, and that is a threshold that we're comfortable with. I don't really want to get into a hypothetical on what if but you know we are really proud of the business we have there, but of course that's just one of 220 countries and regions that we're in. We are one of the most global internet companies and so, you know, we are, we operate in nearly every country and region every, every place is a little bit different.

BOSA: At the same time, Brian, other tech companies have had to make these really tough decisions if the requirements become too honors. Are you ready to make those kinds of tough decisions and perhaps sacrifices in the future?

CHESKY: I think I've shown, and we've shown that we are prepared to make tough decisions when we need to. We are prepared. And if you look at the last eight months, every step of the way we've tried to do our very best to take care of our stakeholders, our guests, our hosts, our communities, and always decide not just make a business decision, but do a principled decision, even when you're not sure what the outcome’s gonna look like. And I think if you do that kind of stuff and you act in that way, I think the business eventually turns itself around.

BOSA: Let's talk about some of those stakeholders and regulations which I know that we have spent a lot of time talking about over the past few years, Airbnb has certainly had some wins, there's some work to do, particularly I know you guys have done a lot surrounding those party homes in particular but more broadly, in light of the heightened scrutiny we are seeing as big tech Facebook being the latest example just yesterday, are you preparing for regulatory pressures to increase not just at the municipal level which you guys have typically dealt with, but at the state and federal level as well?

CHESKY: I mean, we are always prepared and, you know, it's, you know, most, most internet companies, they got regulation and they got scrutiny because they were big. We actually got scrutiny while we were still operating in a three-bedroom apartment, because, you know, Airbnb exists in people's neighborhoods. And you know, I learned some difficult lessons. I learned that well when you have a challenge you should talk to them, and you should meet people face to face, and you should partner with cities. And, you know, I wish we had been faster and more proactive, but I will tell you that I'm proud that we've now collected and remitted billions of dollars of hotel occupancy tax, we're one of the largest collector emitters of hotel occupancy tax in the world, we forge relationships with hundreds of cities. I think that in some ways COVID has offered a little bit of a reset because I think that cities certainly need economic assistance and I think Airbnb could be a solution to some of the challenges but our, our principles to be transparent, to be good partners and we know that, you know, you know we're afforded the right to exist and we appreciate that.

BOSA: Right. And lastly, Brian, when we spoke over the summer, you said that travel as we know it isn't coming back. I wonder how you see it recovering now especially in terms of home-sharing versus hotel. Do you think that beyond the pandemic people are still gonna want to get in their cars and travel to home rentals instead of going to hotels and having everything taken care of for them?

CHESKY: You know, travel is going to be back. And I think that if this, if our IPO represents anything, I think it represents that our hosts are coming back and that travel’s coming back. But to be very clear, travel is never going to look like it did in January because the world is never going to look like it did in January. And I think what it's going to mean is that travel is going to get redistributed to thousands of cities and I think people are going to stay longer and they're going to be looking for more intimate authentic experiences and anyone that provides that I think it's going to be a part of this bright future for travel.

BOSA: Well, Brian, I know that you have, and your team have pioneered a new way of travel. We look forward to seeing what you do in the years ahead now as a public company. Congratulations to you and the whole team and we look forward I personally look forward to covering you guys as a public company now going forward. Good luck.

CHESKY: Well, thank you very much and thank you, Jim.

The post CEO Brian Chesky On Airbnb’s IPO And The Pandemic appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings

Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution…

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Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites.

“Such is unsurprising, given that retail investors often fall victim to the psychological behavior of the “fear of missing out.” The chart below shows the “dumb money index” versus the S&P 500. Once again, retail investors are very long equities relative to the institutional players ascribed to being the “smart money.””

“The difference between “smart” and “dumb money” investors shows that, more often than not, the “dumb money” invests near market tops and sells near market bottoms.”

Net Smart Dumb Money vs Market

That enthusiasm has increased sharply since last November as stocks surged in hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. As noted by Sentiment Trader:

“Over the past 18 weeks, the straight-up rally has moved us to an interesting juncture in the Sentiment Cycle. For the past few weeks, the S&P 500 has demonstrated a high positive correlation to the ‘Enthusiasm’ part of the cycle and a highly negative correlation to the ‘Panic’ phase.”

Investor Enthusiasm

That frenzy to chase the markets, driven by the psychological bias of the “fear of missing out,” has permeated the entirety of the market. As noted in This Is Nuts:”

“Since then, the entire market has surged higher following last week’s earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA). The reason I say “this is nuts” is the assumption that all companies were going to grow earnings and revenue at Nvidia’s rate. There is little doubt about Nvidia’s earnings and revenue growth rates. However, to maintain that growth pace indefinitely, particularly at 32x price-to-sales, means others like AMD and Intel must lose market share.”

Nvidia Price To Sales

Of course, it is not just a speculative frenzy in the markets for stocks, specifically anything related to “artificial intelligence,” but that exuberance has spilled over into gold and cryptocurrencies.

Birds Of A Feather

There are a couple of ways to measure exuberance in the assets. While sentiment measures examine the broad market, technical indicators can reflect exuberance on individual asset levels. However, before we get to our charts, we need a brief explanation of statistics, specifically, standard deviation.

As I discussed in “Revisiting Bob Farrell’s 10 Investing Rules”:

“Like a rubber band that has been stretched too far – it must be relaxed in order to be stretched again. This is exactly the same for stock prices that are anchored to their moving averages. Trends that get overextended in one direction, or another, always return to their long-term average. Even during a strong uptrend or strong downtrend, prices often move back (revert) to a long-term moving average.”

The idea of “stretching the rubber band” can be measured in several ways, but I will limit our discussion this week to Standard Deviation and measuring deviation with “Bollinger Bands.”

“Standard Deviation” is defined as:

“A measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is calculated as the square root of the variance.”

In plain English, this means that the further away from the average that an event occurs, the more unlikely it becomes. As shown below, out of 1000 occurrences, only three will fall outside the area of 3 standard deviations. 95.4% of the time, events will occur within two standard deviations.

Standard Deviation Chart

A second measure of “exuberance” is “relative strength.”

“In technical analysis, the relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can read from 0 to 100.

Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.” – Investopedia

With those two measures, let’s look at Nvidia (NVDA), the poster child of speculative momentum trading in the markets. Nvidia trades more than 3 standard deviations above its moving average, and its RSI is 81. The last time this occurred was in July of 2023 when Nvidia consolidated and corrected prices through November.

NVDA chart vs Bollinger Bands

Interestingly, gold also trades well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI reading of 75. Given that gold is supposed to be a “safe haven” or “risk off” asset, it is instead getting swept up in the current market exuberance.

Gold vs Bollinger Bands

The same is seen with digital currencies. Given the recent approval of spot, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the panic bid to buy Bitcoin has pushed the price well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI of 73.

Bitcoin vs Bollinger Bands

In other words, the stock market frenzy to “buy anything that is going up” has spread from just a handful of stocks related to artificial intelligence to gold and digital currencies.

It’s All Relative

We can see the correlation between stock market exuberance and gold and digital currency, which has risen since 2015 but accelerated following the post-pandemic, stimulus-fueled market frenzy. Since the market, gold and cryptocurrencies, or Bitcoin for our purposes, have disparate prices, we have rebased the performance to 100 in 2015.

Gold was supposed to be an inflation hedge. Yet, in 2022, gold prices fell as the market declined and inflation surged to 9%. However, as inflation has fallen and the stock market surged, so has gold. Notably, since 2015, gold and the market have moved in a more correlated pattern, which has reduced the hedging effect of gold in portfolios. In other words, during the subsequent market decline, gold will likely track stocks lower, failing to provide its “wealth preservation” status for investors.

SP500 vs Gold

The same goes for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is substantially more volatile than gold and tends to ebb and flow with the overall market. As sentiment surges in the S&P 500, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies follow suit as speculative appetites increase. Unfortunately, for individuals once again piling into Bitcoin to chase rising prices, if, or when, the market corrects, the decline in cryptocurrencies will likely substantially outpace the decline in market-based equities. This is particularly the case as Wall Street can now short the spot-Bitcoin ETFs, creating additional selling pressure on Bitcoin.

SP500 vs Bitcoin

Just for added measure, here is Bitcoin versus gold.

Gold vs Bitcoin

Not A Recommendation

There are many narratives surrounding the markets, digital currency, and gold. However, in today’s market, more than in previous years, all assets are getting swept up into the investor-feeding frenzy.

Sure, this time could be different. I am only making an observation and not an investment recommendation.

However, from a portfolio management perspective, it will likely pay to remain attentive to the correlated risk between asset classes. If some event causes a reversal in bullish exuberance, cash and bonds may be the only place to hide.

The post Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings appeared first on RIA.

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare…

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare quotes the soothsayer’s warning Julius Caesar about what turned out to be an impending assassination on March 15. The death of American liberty happened around the same time four years ago, when the orders went out from all levels of government to close all indoor and outdoor venues where people gather. 

It was not quite a law and it was never voted on by anyone. Seemingly out of nowhere, people who the public had largely ignored, the public health bureaucrats, all united to tell the executives in charge – mayors, governors, and the president – that the only way to deal with a respiratory virus was to scrap freedom and the Bill of Rights. 

And they did, not only in the US but all over the world. 

The forced closures in the US began on March 6 when the mayor of Austin, Texas, announced the shutdown of the technology and arts festival South by Southwest. Hundreds of thousands of contracts, of attendees and vendors, were instantly scrapped. The mayor said he was acting on the advice of his health experts and they in turn pointed to the CDC, which in turn pointed to the World Health Organization, which in turn pointed to member states and so on. 

There was no record of Covid in Austin, Texas, that day but they were sure they were doing their part to stop the spread. It was the first deployment of the “Zero Covid” strategy that became, for a time, official US policy, just as in China. 

It was never clear precisely who to blame or who would take responsibility, legal or otherwise. 

This Friday evening press conference in Austin was just the beginning. By the next Thursday evening, the lockdown mania reached a full crescendo. Donald Trump went on nationwide television to announce that everything was under control but that he was stopping all travel in and out of US borders, from Europe, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. American citizens would need to return by Monday or be stuck. 

Americans abroad panicked while spending on tickets home and crowded into international airports with waits up to 8 hours standing shoulder to shoulder. It was the first clear sign: there would be no consistency in the deployment of these edicts. 

There is no historical record of any American president ever issuing global travel restrictions like this without a declaration of war. Until then, and since the age of travel began, every American had taken it for granted that he could buy a ticket and board a plane. That was no longer possible. Very quickly it became even difficult to travel state to state, as most states eventually implemented a two-week quarantine rule. 

The next day, Friday March 13, Broadway closed and New York City began to empty out as any residents who could went to summer homes or out of state. 

On that day, the Trump administration declared the national emergency by invoking the Stafford Act which triggers new powers and resources to the Federal Emergency Management Administration. 

In addition, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a classified document, only to be released to the public months later. The document initiated the lockdowns. It still does not exist on any government website.

The White House Coronavirus Response Task Force, led by the Vice President, will coordinate a whole-of-government approach, including governors, state and local officials, and members of Congress, to develop the best options for the safety, well-being, and health of the American people. HHS is the LFA [Lead Federal Agency] for coordinating the federal response to COVID-19.

Closures were guaranteed:

Recommend significantly limiting public gatherings and cancellation of almost all sporting events, performances, and public and private meetings that cannot be convened by phone. Consider school closures. Issue widespread ‘stay at home’ directives for public and private organizations, with nearly 100% telework for some, although critical public services and infrastructure may need to retain skeleton crews. Law enforcement could shift to focus more on crime prevention, as routine monitoring of storefronts could be important.

In this vision of turnkey totalitarian control of society, the vaccine was pre-approved: “Partner with pharmaceutical industry to produce anti-virals and vaccine.”

The National Security Council was put in charge of policy making. The CDC was just the marketing operation. That’s why it felt like martial law. Without using those words, that’s what was being declared. It even urged information management, with censorship strongly implied.

The timing here is fascinating. This document came out on a Friday. But according to every autobiographical account – from Mike Pence and Scott Gottlieb to Deborah Birx and Jared Kushner – the gathered team did not meet with Trump himself until the weekend of the 14th and 15th, Saturday and Sunday. 

According to their account, this was his first real encounter with the urge that he lock down the whole country. He reluctantly agreed to 15 days to flatten the curve. He announced this on Monday the 16th with the famous line: “All public and private venues where people gather should be closed.”

This makes no sense. The decision had already been made and all enabling documents were already in circulation. 

There are only two possibilities. 

One: the Department of Homeland Security issued this March 13 HHS document without Trump’s knowledge or authority. That seems unlikely. 

Two: Kushner, Birx, Pence, and Gottlieb are lying. They decided on a story and they are sticking to it. 

Trump himself has never explained the timeline or precisely when he decided to greenlight the lockdowns. To this day, he avoids the issue beyond his constant claim that he doesn’t get enough credit for his handling of the pandemic.

With Nixon, the famous question was always what did he know and when did he know it? When it comes to Trump and insofar as concerns Covid lockdowns – unlike the fake allegations of collusion with Russia – we have no investigations. To this day, no one in the corporate media seems even slightly interested in why, how, or when human rights got abolished by bureaucratic edict. 

As part of the lockdowns, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which was and is part of the Department of Homeland Security, as set up in 2018, broke the entire American labor force into essential and nonessential.

They also set up and enforced censorship protocols, which is why it seemed like so few objected. In addition, CISA was tasked with overseeing mail-in ballots. 

Only 8 days into the 15, Trump announced that he wanted to open the country by Easter, which was on April 12. His announcement on March 24 was treated as outrageous and irresponsible by the national press but keep in mind: Easter would already take us beyond the initial two-week lockdown. What seemed to be an opening was an extension of closing. 

This announcement by Trump encouraged Birx and Fauci to ask for an additional 30 days of lockdown, which Trump granted. Even on April 23, Trump told Georgia and Florida, which had made noises about reopening, that “It’s too soon.” He publicly fought with the governor of Georgia, who was first to open his state. 

Before the 15 days was over, Congress passed and the president signed the 880-page CARES Act, which authorized the distribution of $2 trillion to states, businesses, and individuals, thus guaranteeing that lockdowns would continue for the duration. 

There was never a stated exit plan beyond Birx’s public statements that she wanted zero cases of Covid in the country. That was never going to happen. It is very likely that the virus had already been circulating in the US and Canada from October 2019. A famous seroprevalence study by Jay Bhattacharya came out in May 2020 discerning that infections and immunity were already widespread in the California county they examined. 

What that implied was two crucial points: there was zero hope for the Zero Covid mission and this pandemic would end as they all did, through endemicity via exposure, not from a vaccine as such. That was certainly not the message that was being broadcast from Washington. The growing sense at the time was that we all had to sit tight and just wait for the inoculation on which pharmaceutical companies were working. 

By summer 2020, you recall what happened. A restless generation of kids fed up with this stay-at-home nonsense seized on the opportunity to protest racial injustice in the killing of George Floyd. Public health officials approved of these gatherings – unlike protests against lockdowns – on grounds that racism was a virus even more serious than Covid. Some of these protests got out of hand and became violent and destructive. 

Meanwhile, substance abuse rage – the liquor and weed stores never closed – and immune systems were being degraded by lack of normal exposure, exactly as the Bakersfield doctors had predicted. Millions of small businesses had closed. The learning losses from school closures were mounting, as it turned out that Zoom school was near worthless. 

It was about this time that Trump seemed to figure out – thanks to the wise council of Dr. Scott Atlas – that he had been played and started urging states to reopen. But it was strange: he seemed to be less in the position of being a president in charge and more of a public pundit, Tweeting out his wishes until his account was banned. He was unable to put the worms back in the can that he had approved opening. 

By that time, and by all accounts, Trump was convinced that the whole effort was a mistake, that he had been trolled into wrecking the country he promised to make great. It was too late. Mail-in ballots had been widely approved, the country was in shambles, the media and public health bureaucrats were ruling the airwaves, and his final months of the campaign failed even to come to grips with the reality on the ground. 

At the time, many people had predicted that once Biden took office and the vaccine was released, Covid would be declared to have been beaten. But that didn’t happen and mainly for one reason: resistance to the vaccine was more intense than anyone had predicted. The Biden administration attempted to impose mandates on the entire US workforce. Thanks to a Supreme Court ruling, that effort was thwarted but not before HR departments around the country had already implemented them. 

As the months rolled on – and four major cities closed all public accommodations to the unvaccinated, who were being demonized for prolonging the pandemic – it became clear that the vaccine could not and would not stop infection or transmission, which means that this shot could not be classified as a public health benefit. Even as a private benefit, the evidence was mixed. Any protection it provided was short-lived and reports of vaccine injury began to mount. Even now, we cannot gain full clarity on the scale of the problem because essential data and documentation remains classified. 

After four years, we find ourselves in a strange position. We still do not know precisely what unfolded in mid-March 2020: who made what decisions, when, and why. There has been no serious attempt at any high level to provide a clear accounting much less assign blame. 

Not even Tucker Carlson, who reportedly played a crucial role in getting Trump to panic over the virus, will tell us the source of his own information or what his source told him. There have been a series of valuable hearings in the House and Senate but they have received little to no press attention, and none have focus on the lockdown orders themselves. 

The prevailing attitude in public life is just to forget the whole thing. And yet we live now in a country very different from the one we inhabited five years ago. Our media is captured. Social media is widely censored in violation of the First Amendment, a problem being taken up by the Supreme Court this month with no certainty of the outcome. The administrative state that seized control has not given up power. Crime has been normalized. Art and music institutions are on the rocks. Public trust in all official institutions is at rock bottom. We don’t even know if we can trust the elections anymore. 

In the early days of lockdown, Henry Kissinger warned that if the mitigation plan does not go well, the world will find itself set “on fire.” He died in 2023. Meanwhile, the world is indeed on fire. The essential struggle in every country on earth today concerns the battle between the authority and power of permanent administration apparatus of the state – the very one that took total control in lockdowns – and the enlightenment ideal of a government that is responsible to the will of the people and the moral demand for freedom and rights. 

How this struggle turns out is the essential story of our times. 

CODA: I’m embedding a copy of PanCAP Adapted, as annotated by Debbie Lerman. You might need to download the whole thing to see the annotations. If you can help with research, please do.

*  *  *

Jeffrey Tucker is the author of the excellent new book 'Life After Lock-Down'

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 23:40

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CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid

CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

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CDC Warns Thousands Of Children Sent To ER After Taking Common Sleep Aid

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) paper released Thursday found that thousands of young children have been taken to the emergency room over the past several years after taking the very common sleep-aid supplement melatonin.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia, on April 23, 2020. (Tami Chappell/AFP via Getty Images)

The agency said that melatonin, which can come in gummies that are meant for adults, was implicated in about 7 percent of all emergency room visits for young children and infants “for unsupervised medication ingestions,” adding that many incidents were linked to the ingestion of gummy formulations that were flavored. Those incidents occurred between the years 2019 and 2022.

Melatonin is a hormone produced by the human body to regulate its sleep cycle. Supplements, which are sold in a number of different formulas, are generally taken before falling asleep and are popular among people suffering from insomnia, jet lag, chronic pain, or other problems.

The supplement isn’t regulated by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and does not require child-resistant packaging. However, a number of supplement companies include caps or lids that are difficult for children to open.

The CDC report said that a significant number of melatonin-ingestion cases among young children were due to the children opening bottles that had not been properly closed or were within their reach. Thursday’s report, the agency said, “highlights the importance of educating parents and other caregivers about keeping all medications and supplements (including gummies) out of children’s reach and sight,” including melatonin.

The approximately 11,000 emergency department visits for unsupervised melatonin ingestions by infants and young children during 2019–2022 highlight the importance of educating parents and other caregivers about keeping all medications and supplements (including gummies) out of children’s reach and sight.

The CDC notes that melatonin use among Americans has increased five-fold over the past 25 years or so. That has coincided with a 530 percent increase in poison center calls for melatonin exposures to children between 2012 and 2021, it said, as well as a 420 percent increase in emergency visits for unsupervised melatonin ingestion by young children or infants between 2009 and 2020.

Some health officials advise that children under the age of 3 should avoid taking melatonin unless a doctor says otherwise. Side effects include drowsiness, headaches, agitation, dizziness, and bed wetting.

Other symptoms of too much melatonin include nausea, diarrhea, joint pain, anxiety, and irritability. The supplement can also impact blood pressure.

However, there is no established threshold for a melatonin overdose, officials have said. Most adult melatonin supplements contain a maximum of 10 milligrams of melatonin per serving, and some contain less.

Many people can tolerate even relatively large doses of melatonin without significant harm, officials say. But there is no antidote for an overdose. In cases of a child accidentally ingesting melatonin, doctors often ask a reliable adult to monitor them at home.

Dr. Cora Collette Breuner, with the Seattle Children’s Hospital at the University of Washington, told CNN that parents should speak with a doctor before giving their children the supplement.

“I also tell families, this is not something your child should take forever. Nobody knows what the long-term effects of taking this is on your child’s growth and development,” she told the outlet. “Taking away blue-light-emitting smartphones, tablets, laptops, and television at least two hours before bed will keep melatonin production humming along, as will reading or listening to bedtime stories in a softly lit room, taking a warm bath, or doing light stretches.”

In 2022, researchers found that in 2021, U.S. poison control centers received more than 52,000 calls about children consuming worrisome amounts of the dietary supplement. That’s a six-fold increase from about a decade earlier. Most such calls are about young children who accidentally got into bottles of melatonin, some of which come in the form of gummies for kids, the report said.

Dr. Karima Lelak, an emergency physician at Children’s Hospital of Michigan and the lead author of the study published in 2022 by the CDC, found that in about 83 percent of those calls, the children did not show any symptoms.

However, other children had vomiting, altered breathing, or other symptoms. Over the 10 years studied, more than 4,000 children were hospitalized, five were put on machines to help them breathe, and two children under the age of two died. Most of the hospitalized children were teenagers, and many of those ingestions were thought to be suicide attempts.

Those researchers also suggested that COVID-19 lockdowns and virtual learning forced more children to be at home all day, meaning there were more opportunities for kids to access melatonin. Also, those restrictions may have caused sleep-disrupting stress and anxiety, leading more families to consider melatonin, they suggested.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 21:40

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