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Blockchain detectives: Mt. Gox collapse saw birth of Chainalysis

From solving Mt. Gox to tracing crypto used by child abuse syndicates in Korea, Chainalysis has a long but sometimes controversial history.

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From solving Mt. Gox to tracing crypto used by child abuse syndicates in Korea, Chainalysis has a long but sometimes controversial history.

Its been more than a decade since 850,000 BTC went missing from Mt. Gox, yet the collapse of the former exchange remains one of the most infamous black swan events of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

While creditors of the defunct exchange are edging closer to some form of restitution, Mt. Goxs demise ended up playing an important role in the development of tools to identify, track and tackle the illicit movements of funds through the wider cryptocurrency industry.

The search for answers and funds played a key role in the birth of cryptos best-known blockchain analytics and tracing firm, Chainalysis, explains co-founder Michael Gronager.

Close to a decade later, Chainalysis analytics tools are being used by myriad private and public enterprises and institutions. From data analytics to pure law enforcement use cases, the firms services continue to prove influential and sometimes controversial across the industry.

Kraken the Mt Gox case

Gronager is a crypto OG, having previously co-founded cryptocurrency exchange Kraken. He got involved in blockchain analysis after Kraken went looking for a steady banking partner and met a wall of wariness over the lack of visibility in the cryptocurrency ecosystem along with KYC and money laundering concerns.

These conversations with the banks, they all end in the same way. How do you do transaction monitoring? How do you track the funds you receive from someone that you are onboarding online? Gronager tells Magazine.

The collapse of Mt. Gox around the same time presented another unique challenge for Gronager, who was tasked with figuring out what happened to the funds that Kraken and some of its clients had in the defunct exchange.

As explored in the book Tracers in the Dark, Gronager developed the tools that would lay the foundation for Chainalysis, with the nascent firm eventually appointed as the investigative team by Mt. Goxs bankruptcy trustee in 2014. From there, Gronager and his team wasted no time putting the proverbial bits together to trace the missing funds.

Jonathan Levin, the second of three Chainalysis co-founders, also spoke with Magazine at the companys Links conference in the Netherlands earlier this year. The Oxford economics masters graduate highlights the investigation as the starting point of Chainalysis wider service.

We were given the Mt. Gox investigation, which was the largest bankruptcy case in crypto history, and that really was about following the money. If its all on the blockchain, how is it that no one can find it? And so, you know, we worked it out and cracked that case.

Two Russian nationals would eventually be indicted in June 2023 by the United States Justice Department for allegedly hacking and laundering some 647,000 BTC from Mt. Gox. The Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigations unit, which makes use of Chainalysis tools, is assisting in ongoing investigations.

Helping trace the movements of Bitcoin held by Mt. Gox proved that Chainalyis had the tools to solve complex cryptocurrency movements. Gronager also realized this was a service the worlds top crime-fighting institutions were crying out for.

I realized in conversation with other people from the industry that worked with law enforcement that they had no clue. They didnt know how to solve these things.

The customer base grew rapidly after onboarding both private and public sector users, including exchanges and law enforcement agencies. As of September 2023, Chainalysis has 1,200 customers from the private sector and over 250 from public sector institutions.

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The go-to service for law enforcement 

Chainalysis has become the go-to tracing solution for some of the best-known law enforcement organizations worldwide and has helped the IRS seize an estimated $10 billion worth of cryptocurrency related to criminal investigations. IRS Criminal Investigations (IRS-CI) Chief Jim Lee says the tools it offers are invaluable to trace cryptocurrency and interrogate data in myriad settings, from blockchains to darknet marketplaces.

Think about all the data that I have working for the IRS. It may not be the most, but its the richest. Now I can take all this other data we have and then match it up against the records that I have. I mean, its just incredibly powerful, but it takes time, energy and money. 

Lee was also at the Links conference, participating in open and closed-door conversations with various governmental agencies and businesses in Amsterdam.

Gronager was reluctant to single out a stand-out investigation made possible with Chainalysis blockchain analytics, considering that its services have helped solve a litany of high-profile cases from tracing cryptocurrencies that help bust child abuse material syndicates in South Korea to using its tools to help solve headline-grabbing Twitter hacks in 2020 that led to close to $1 million being stolen.

The story of Chainalysis

In that high-profile case, Chainalysis tools helped investigators link a Bitcoin scam being promulgated by various hacked Twitter accounts to three perpetrators accused of orchestrating the scheme. The mastermind of the scheme is a juvenile whose identity has not yet been revealed.

12 days after, the case was solved, and thats again showing that you can actually do things really, really fast by following the funds in crypto.

Another highlight was assisting in the recovery of $30 million of the $650-million Axie Infinity hack in 2022, which Gronager believes made a statement to North Korean-linked hackers that crypto-related thefts might not be the cash cow they once were.

A visual representation of Chainalysis Reactor being used to help trace funds following the $650 million Axie Infinity Ronin bridge hack
A visual representation of the Chainalysis Reactor being used to help trace funds following the $650-million Axie Infinity Ronin Bridge hack. (Chainalysis)

Controversy over Bitcoin Fog case

The ability to tie cryptocurrency wallets or funds to a specific person is hugely valuable in criminal investigations.

But the firm is not without its detractors, with critics suggesting that reliance on heuristics or assumptions about unidentifiable wallets can lead to inaccurate tracing and unlawful arrests.

Could a man like Sterlingov who loves his cat be a Bitcoin Mixer? Well find out in court
Could a man like Sterlingov, who loves his cat, be a Bitcoin mixer? Well find out in court. (torekeland.com)

A sizable contingent of Bitcoiners online has argued that this is the case in a legal battle involving the U.S. government and Roman Sterlingov, 35, who stands accused of operating Bitcoin mixer Bitcoin Fog. 

Chainalysis tools were used to identify Sterlingov as the alleged orchestrator of the infamous and now defunct cryptocurrency mixer that the Justice Department claims moved over 1.2 million BTC worth $335 million over a decade.

Detractors argue that the DOJs case made certain assumptions about wallets and credentials allegedly linked to the early Bitcoin adopter and the eventual registration of the Bitcoin Fog domain that was tied to Sterlingov.

Sterlingov attorney Tor Ekeland claims the firms Reactor software is unscientific and unreliable, and flawed assumptions have falsely implicated Sterlingov. He argues that Chainalysis cant identify its error rate. This is junk science that doesnt belong in a federal court, Ekeland told a Sept. 7 court hearing.

Elizabeth Bisbee, head of investigations at Chainalysis Government Solutions, reportedly told the court she was unaware of any peer reviewed scientific papers attesting to the accuracy of Chainalysis Reactor.

The courts will ultimately decide whether there is enough reasonable doubt about Chainalysis methods in the case to convict. Chainalysis would not be drawn in our interviews to comment on any ongoing investigations or cases.

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Investigations 90% focused on public blockchains

Despite the controversy, Chainalysis has a lot of happy customers and has played a big role in the recovery of hacked funds. Erin Plante, VP of investigations at Chainalysis, manages a growing team of more than 120 investigators across 11 countries.

Plante, who has a wealth of experience working in cybercrime and financial investigation as a U.S. government contractor, says that 90% of their investigators are tasked with probes into incidents involving public blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum. 

The Ronin Bridge investigation was a primary driver for the creation of her team, highlighting the importance of allocating human capital to trace funds in the immediate aftermath of a major hack.

Getting in early and tracing funds early is so important and getting law enforcement involved early is how youre most able to have successful recoveries.

There has also been an evolution in the theme of investigations, with Plante recalling a plethora of darknet investigations around 2019 demanding a lot of their attention. Investigative efforts are now more focused on cybercrimes involving ransomware, national security threats from entities associated with North Korea and sanctions screening of entities involved in Russias invasion of Ukraine.

A key talking point in the conversations in Amsterdam was the inherent traceability of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies despite the advent of token mixing protocols, such as sanctioned Tornado Cash.

Plante notes that it is fairly straightforward to trace stolen funds through cross-chain bridges, with criminals typically converting tokens to ETH and then BTC, which is sent to mixers in an effort to obfuscate funds.

She says that mixers require significant amounts of liquidity to properly obfuscate funds, which has predominantly left Bitcoin mixers as the main option for criminals to launder money.

Chainalysis has a dedicated data intelligence team using specific tools to identify mixers using an algorithm that clusters wallets that are associated with the mixer service. An example of the algorithm at work was helping cluster some 50,000 addresses that were linked to the now sanctioned Sinbad mixer.

An excerpt from a Chainalyis report highlighting the emergence of Sinbad and its use by North Korean hackers
An excerpt from a Chainalyis report highlighting the emergence of Sinbad and its use by North Korean hackers. (Chainalysis)

Between December 2022 and January 2023, North Korea-linked hackers sent 1,429 BTC worth $24.2 million to the mixer.

Plante reveals that Chainalysis had its clustering algorithm independently confirmed by a separate, covert FBI investigation that had been making use of dusting to trace how funds were being obfuscated by Chipmixer, another service that is widely believed to be the direct predecessor of Sinbad and its funds. Chipmixer was shut down in March 2023 over allegations that it had facilitated $3 billion in money laundering.

We didnt know the FBI was doing that, but it was picked up in our clustering, which verified the cluster. That verification, thats very cool. That one will probably go to court, which is why we dont talk about it.

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Aging at AACR Annual Meeting 2024

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging…

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BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Credit: Impact Journals

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”

Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Aging team.

About Aging-US:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed and archived by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed CentralWeb of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

  • Aging X
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  • Aging YouTube
  • Aging LinkedIn
  • Aging SoundCloud
  • Aging Pinterest
  • Aging Reddit

Click here to subscribe to Aging publication updates.

For media inquiries, please contact media@impactjournals.com.


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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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