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Bitcoin price outlook still bullish despite drop from COVID-19 vaccine news

Bitcoin price outlook still bullish despite drop from COVID-19 vaccine news

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Following highly volatile Bitcoin price action in the aftermath of its vaccine-induced drop, crypto traders explain where BTC is headed next.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has seen extreme volatility in the past 24 hours. After the Dow Jones Industrial Average abruptly rose by more than 800 points, BTC plunged in tandem with gold. Within five hours of achieving a four-day peak at $15,840, the dominant cryptocurrency abruptly plummeted 6.5%. Following the correction of BTC, analysts and traders remain divided on its near-future prospects.

The short-term pullback of Bitcoin, which happened within several hours, was beneficial for BTC for three key reasons. First, it neutralized the derivatives market, which is no longer overheated. Second, it led to a healthy rejection of the $16,000 resistance level. Third, it showed that even after a major price drop, overall buyer demand remains intact.

Pfizer’s vaccine neutralized the market

On Nov. 9, Bitcoin saw a sharp drop from $15,840 to $14,805, which occurred shortly after Pfizer announced its optimistic COVID-19 drug trial results, having tested nearly 44,000 individuals and demonstrated 90% effectiveness. Subsequent to the announcement by Pfizer, major U.S. stock market indices rallied by around 3%.

The highly anticipated breakthrough in the vaccine’s development caused Bitcoin and gold to rapidly drop. Capital flew out of safe-haven assets and stores of value to risk-on assets, like stocks, in a short period. Consequently, gold recorded an intraday 4.5% drop, which is rare for an asset of its size. It sparked the appetite for stocks and other risk-on assets, which gave Bitcoin whales a narrative to sell.

When Bitcoin initially started dropping, whale inflows into cryptocurrency exchanges began to increase. This meant that high-net-worth investors holding large amounts of BTC were selling. Since Bitcoin recovered back above $15,300 within six hours, whales likely bought back at a lower price. Based on the trend, it’s probable that whales used the narrative of the vaccine-induced correction to sell at resistance and buy at a lower price.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin technical analyst Eric Thies said that Bitcoin has essentially been fluctuating between two levels: the $14,500 support and $16,000 resistance. Bitcoin rejected heavily as it approached $16,000, indicating that there are large sell orders present at the $16,000 resistance area. If BTC sees some consolidation under $16,000, Thies noted that it would be beneficial for buyers:

“We’ve seen Bitcoin breaking previous 2019 resistances for almost two weeks now, and with price rapidly fluctuating between $14.5K and $16K, bulls are in need of a consolidation period before we rapidly accelerate towards hitting the 2017 high of $19,500.”

The short-term drop of Bitcoin was also critical to reset the futures market. Prior to the drop, the funding rate of BTC futures contracts across major exchanges was well over the average 0.01%. This meant that the vast majority of the market was heavily longing or buying Bitcoin. After the correction, the funding rate returned back to 0.01%, showing that the futures market is no longer overheated.

What on-chain data points say

According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, the long-term prospect of Bitcoin remains positive. Ki told Cointelegraph that the exchange inflow mean shows the Bitcoin market is “still in a strong buy zone.” The exchange inflows show the amount of BTC that traders and investors are transferring to exchanges. When this figure remains low, it typically indicates lower selling pressure on exchanges.

However, Ki said that after Bitcoin’s drop, BTC inflows from whales have been spotted. While this is an ostensibly bearish trend, the analyst noted that whales tend to sell BTC regularly during bull trends. Since whales seek liquidity, they prefer to sell when the price is going up to ensure there is enough buyer demand in the market. Although the trend could be bearish, depending on one’s perception, Ki said it’s unlikely to be a market sentiment reversal, for now:

“After the price plunge, there have been subsequent exchange inflows by whales for two reasons. First, in the bull market: To sell it at the local high. They sell when the retail investors are active on exchanges. Second, in the bear market: To sell it if the unusual fear-sell happens. I would say we’re in the number 1 case. We still have a room till when retail investors are active on exchanges.”

Large dips to be expected during new record-high bull runs

Analysts and traders are generally echoing a similar stance in that large dips during Bitcoin bull trends are normal. Thies explained that he expects Bitcoin to achieve a new all-time high at $20,000 in January 2021 or February 2021. Still, Thies emphasized that large dips have always occurred during previous bull cycles. Even during the 2017 rally, when BTC neared $20,000, BTC saw several short-term 20%–30% drops.

If Bitcoin continues to consolidate with decent momentum, Thies said buyers are safe from a major drop. Unless BTC sees a lower low formation, which occurs when BTC drops below the most recent bottom, the technical analyst said BTC could avoid a deep correction:

“At this point, I see BTC hitting $20K in January or February, which will mark the actual start of the new ‘crypto bull run’, BUT, expect a dip to as low as $12.8K at some point prior. Bulls will benefit from any consolidation or periods like this, as it keeps the market from over buying too early. Bulls are technically ok until we see a lower low, which at this point would be near even $11.5K but that's a low probability of happening it seems.”

The bull case for Bitcoin

Various on-chain data metrics show that both miners and whales have been selling BTC. The Miners’ Position Index on CryptoQuant hit a yearly high on Nov. 5, indicating rising selling pressure from miners. Yet, the price of Bitcoin has stayed relatively stable above $15,000 throughout the past week, apart from several days.

This trend shows that new buyer demand is offsetting the selling pressure coming from whales and miners. According to analysts at Santiment, around $365 million worth of Tether (USDT) has moved to exchanges daily in the last seven days. Since most of the sidelined capital within the crypto market is stored in stablecoins, it suggests that new buyers are entering the market.

In the short term, however, one concerning metric that could cause Bitcoin to consolidate for longer is the relative unrealized profit/loss indicator. Philip Swift, the creator of educational platform Look Into Bitcoin, said BTC is hovering in the “greed” zone on the indicator, which, basically, measures how much unrealized profit investors currently hold.

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Key shipping company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

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The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Key shipping company files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

Published

on

The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Tight inventory and frustrated buyers challenge agents in Virginia

With inventory a little more than half of what it was pre-pandemic, agents are struggling to find homes for clients in Virginia.

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No matter where you are in the state, real estate agents in Virginia are facing low inventory conditions that are creating frustrating scenarios for their buyers.

“I think people are getting used to the interest rates where they are now, but there is just a huge lack of inventory,” said Chelsea Newcomb, a RE/MAX Realty Specialists agent based in Charlottesville. “I have buyers that are looking, but to find a house that you love enough to pay a high price for — and to be at over a 6.5% interest rate — it’s just a little bit harder to find something.”

Newcomb said that interest rates and higher prices, which have risen by more than $100,000 since March 2020, according to data from Altos Research, have caused her clients to be pickier when selecting a home.

“When rates and prices were lower, people were more willing to compromise,” Newcomb said.

Out in Wise, Virginia, near the westernmost tip of the state, RE/MAX Cavaliers agent Brett Tiller and his clients are also struggling to find suitable properties.

“The thing that really stands out, especially compared to two years ago, is the lack of quality listings,” Tiller said. “The slightly more upscale single-family listings for move-up buyers with children looking for their forever home just aren’t coming on the market right now, and demand is still very high.”

Statewide, Virginia had a 90-day average of 8,068 active single-family listings as of March 8, 2024, down from 14,471 single-family listings in early March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Altos Research. That represents a decrease of 44%.

Virginia-Inventory-Line-Chart-Virginia-90-day-Single-Family

In Newcomb’s base metro area of Charlottesville, there were an average of only 277 active single-family listings during the same recent 90-day period, compared to 892 at the onset of the pandemic. In Wise County, there were only 56 listings.

Due to the demand from move-up buyers in Tiller’s area, the average days on market for homes with a median price of roughly $190,000 was just 17 days as of early March 2024.

“For the right home, which is rare to find right now, we are still seeing multiple offers,” Tiller said. “The demand is the same right now as it was during the heart of the pandemic.”

According to Tiller, the tight inventory has caused homebuyers to spend up to six months searching for their new property, roughly double the time it took prior to the pandemic.

For Matt Salway in the Virginia Beach metro area, the tight inventory conditions are creating a rather hot market.

“Depending on where you are in the area, your listing could have 15 offers in two days,” the agent for Iron Valley Real Estate Hampton Roads | Virginia Beach said. “It has been crazy competition for most of Virginia Beach, and Norfolk is pretty hot too, especially for anything under $400,000.”

According to Altos Research, the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News housing market had a seven-day average Market Action Index score of 52.44 as of March 14, making it the seventh hottest housing market in the country. Altos considers any Market Action Index score above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market.

Virginia-Beach-Metro-Area-Market-Action-Index-Line-Chart-Virginia-Beach-Norfolk-Newport-News-VA-NC-90-day-Single-Family

Further up the coastline on the vacation destination of Chincoteague Island, Long & Foster agent Meghan O. Clarkson is also seeing a decent amount of competition despite higher prices and interest rates.

“People are taking their time to actually come see things now instead of buying site unseen, and occasionally we see some seller concessions, but the traffic and the demand is still there; you might just work a little longer with people because we don’t have anything for sale,” Clarkson said.

“I’m busy and constantly have appointments, but the underlying frenzy from the height of the pandemic has gone away, but I think it is because we have just gotten used to it.”

While much of the demand that Clarkson’s market faces is for vacation homes and from retirees looking for a scenic spot to retire, a large portion of the demand in Salway’s market comes from military personnel and civilians working under government contracts.

“We have over a dozen military bases here, plus a bunch of shipyards, so the closer you get to all of those bases, the easier it is to sell a home and the faster the sale happens,” Salway said.

Due to this, Salway said that existing-home inventory typically does not come on the market unless an employment contract ends or the owner is reassigned to a different base, which is currently contributing to the tight inventory situation in his market.

Things are a bit different for Tiller and Newcomb, who are seeing a decent number of buyers from other, more expensive parts of the state.

“One of the crazy things about Louisa and Goochland, which are kind of like suburbs on the western side of Richmond, is that they are growing like crazy,” Newcomb said. “A lot of people are coming in from Northern Virginia because they can work remotely now.”

With a Market Action Index score of 50, it is easy to see why people are leaving the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria market for the Charlottesville market, which has an index score of 41.

In addition, the 90-day average median list price in Charlottesville is $585,000 compared to $729,900 in the D.C. area, which Newcomb said is also luring many Virginia homebuyers to move further south.

Median-Price-D.C.-vs.-Charlottesville-Line-Chart-90-day-Single-Family

“They are very accustomed to higher prices, so they are super impressed with the prices we offer here in the central Virginia area,” Newcomb said.

For local buyers, Newcomb said this means they are frequently being outbid or outpriced.

“A couple who is local to the area and has been here their whole life, they are just now starting to get their mind wrapped around the fact that you can’t get a house for $200,000 anymore,” Newcomb said.

As the year heads closer to spring, triggering the start of the prime homebuying season, agents in Virginia feel optimistic about the market.

“We are seeing seasonal trends like we did up through 2019,” Clarkson said. “The market kind of soft launched around President’s Day and it is still building, but I expect it to pick right back up and be in full swing by Easter like it always used to.”

But while they are confident in demand, questions still remain about whether there will be enough inventory to support even more homebuyers entering the market.

“I have a lot of buyers starting to come off the sidelines, but in my office, I also have a lot of people who are going to list their house in the next two to three weeks now that the weather is starting to break,” Newcomb said. “I think we are going to have a good spring and summer.”

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