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5 Things to Watch in Bitcoin This Week

Fresh hurdles to overcome for Bitcoin sentiment come as fundamentals stay solid and $40,000 refuses to go without a fight.
Bitcoin (BTC) is at a crossroads as it starts a new week, hovering around $40,000 but with serious headwinds…

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Fresh hurdles to overcome for Bitcoin sentiment come as fundamentals stay solid and $40,000 refuses to go without a fight. Bitcoin (BTC) is at a crossroads as it starts a new week, hovering around $40,000 but with serious headwinds keeping it from bouncing higher. After an impressive weekend that saw highs above $42,500, a comedown saw BTC/USD lose the $40,000 mark. A reversal and consolidation were broadly expected — the pace of gains over the past week has rattled an investor base that until recently was still forecasting a drop to the $20,000 range. Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors that could shape BTC price action in the coming days.

Bitcoin “rages,” while dollar dithers

Stocks and the United States dollar continue to diverge from predicted behavioral patterns when it comes to Bitcoin. After China took aim at big tech late last month, Bitcoin began a serious rebound, but stocks were delayed in making up for lost ground. U.S. markets are now back on the up, however, while China remains nervous. As a result, the U.S. dollar is losing ground against its peers, which is something that runs contrary to predictions. At the time of writing, the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) traded at just above 92, down from highs above 93 a week ago. As Cointelegraph reported, analyst Crypto Ed believes that the DXY needs to hit local highs of its own at around 94 before reversing downward and giving Bitcoin room to breathe. This, under current circumstances, is looking difficult to fulfill. “The dollar appears to be breaking down from the local ascending wedge,” fellow trader and analyst Scott Melker summarized last week.
“Stonks raging, Bitcoin raging.”
U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView
Beyond China, however, traditional markets still face familiar problems of their own, these still apt to put the cat among the pigeons when it comes to longer-term performance. “Shares remain at risk of a short-term correction or volatility as coronavirus cases rise globally, the inflation scare continues and as we come into seasonally weaker months, but surging company profits in the U.S. and lower bond yields are providing support,” Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, said in a note quoted by Bloomberg Monday.

Buzzword OTC for Bitcoin trading

When it comes to Bitcoin price action, it’s a tale of two markets this week. The blistering rally over the past seven days brought one group of investors in particular into focus — the large-volume buyers and sellers on over-the-counter (OTC) markets. While retail also picked up, it was these larger players who were on the radar of analysts. As exchanges’ BTC balances began to fall precipitously, speculation began to flow that institutional entities were back buying up the spare Bitcoin supply in a big way. At the same time, some old hands appeared to be selling, a phenomenon put down to “disbelief,” which nonetheless formed a sticking point for further price gains. As the weekend drew to a close, however, OTC activity also began to err on the side of caution. Data from major derivatives platforms, notably FTX, showed bets piling up for a price dip, which popular trader Pentoshi suggested could be linked to a cryptocurrency tax bill that could be ratified by U.S. lawmakers this week. Meanwhile, more figures show the likely extent of OTC participation in the market overall. “$131B worth of $BTC moved yesterday, but only 1% from the exchange deposits/withdrawals. Fund Flow Ratio for all exchanges hit the 2-year low,” on-chain analytics service CryptoQuant noted Monday.
“This might indicate $BTC OTC trading by big players.”
Bitcoin All Exchanges Fund Flow Ratio chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Hash rate, difficulty pick up the pace

It’s by no means all doom and gloom in Bitcoin despite changes in trading habits. Fundamental indicators governing the network overwhelmingly favor bullish continuation, the latest data shows. The difficulty, arguably the key regulator of the network, saw its first positive adjustment since the May price crash this weekend — up 6% and set for further gains in 11 days’ time. This is no mean feat — the huge upheaval among miners caused by China is now in retreat as players settle overseas or increase existing non-Chinese operations.
Bitcoin difficulty chart. Source: Blockchain.com
This is further evident in the hash rate, which according to best estimates briefly surged back above 100 exahashes per second (EH/s) over the weekend. “It’s stunning that Bitcoin hashrate just had its largest drop in history and price is up 40% in 10 days,” asset manager Travis Kling reacted on the weekend.
“Antifragile to an awe-inspiring degree. The world’s never had anything like this thing and it’s an honor to just be involved.”
At its peak, the hash rate hit 168 EH/s before dropping to post-China lows of 83 EH/s. The 50% decrease roughly corresponds to BTC/USD, which bottomed at $29,300 from $64,500 all-time highs.

GBTC finally escapes the FUD

Besides the China narrative, another key talking point that appears to be diminishing in importance is the pit of Bitcoin’s mini bear market — the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) share unlockings. While dubious as a market force at best, the unlockings caused an uproar among even mainstream financial entities, which were convinced that they would crash the BTC price further. This turned out to be a non-starter, and with the unlockings almost over, GBTC itself is increasing its real-time market appeal. This is apparent in the fund’s premium trending back to zero from a maximum of -15.5%. On the weekend, with the latest data yet to become available, the premium stood at around -6%. “The final batch of GBTC unlocks have cleared, causing the GBTC premium to recover significantly from a 15.5% discount on the 15th of July to a discount of just 6.67%, possibly a signal that investors are confident in BTC’s recent recovery,” Delphi Digital, a research, consulting and investment firm, argued at the time. Grayscale saw two of its funds become available via $25-billion robo-adviser Wealthfront last week, while high-profile buy-ins also continue.
GBTC premium chart. Source: Bybt

No room for greed... yet

The slight cooling from local highs above $42,000 has in fact been therapeutic for market sentiment based on one metric’s evaluation. Related: Bitcoin 'supercycle' sets up Q4 BTC price top as illiquid supply hits all-time high According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which takes multiple factors into account when gauging sentiment across crypto markets, the dip below $40,000 has flushed out “greed.” On Monday, the Index stood at 48/100 — “neutral” territory — versus 60, or “greed,” on Sunday. In the meantime, $40,000 is by no means lost, with BTC/USD fluctuating around the level while doing its best to flip it to sturdy support. BTC price action, therefore, has room to grow without impacting sentiment to the extent that a sell-off is hugely likely. For contrast, Fear & Greed languished in the “extreme greed” zone just one week ago, seeing a giant transformation as Bitcoin ran up and exited the $30,000 zone.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me
“Wow, Bitcoin Fear-And-Greed-Index significantly recovered from its heavy lows seen after the major bearish declines. Showing a lot of demand in form of greed came into the market with recent volatility upside bounce,” trader, investor and analyst Vince Prince commented in one of many surprising reactions to the changes.
“Bullish news for BTC!”

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Government

Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Secretary…

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Mike Pompeo Doesn't Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a new interview that he’s not ruling out accepting a White House position if former President Donald Trump is reelected in November.

“If I get a chance to serve and think that I can make a difference ... I’m almost certainly going to say yes to that opportunity to try and deliver on behalf of the American people,” he told Fox News, when asked during a interview if he would work for President Trump again.

I’m confident President Trump will be looking for people who will faithfully execute what it is he asked them to do,” Mr. Pompeo said during the interview, which aired on March 8. “I think as a president, you should always want that from everyone.”

Then-President Donald Trump (C), then- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L), and then-Vice President Mike Pence, take a question during the daily briefing on the novel coronavirus at the White House in Washington on April 8, 2020. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

He said that as a former secretary of state, “I certainly wanted my team to do what I was asking them to do and was enormously frustrated when I found that I couldn’t get them to do that.”

Mr. Pompeo, a former U.S. representative from Kansas, served as Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2018 before he was secretary of state from 2018 to 2021. After he left office, there was speculation that he could mount a Republican presidential bid in 2024, but announced that he wouldn’t be running.

President Trump hasn’t publicly commented about Mr. Pompeo’s remarks.

In 2023, amid speculation that he would make a run for the White House, Mr. Pompeo took a swipe at his former boss, telling Fox News at the time that “the Trump administration spent $6 trillion more than it took in, adding to the deficit.”

“That’s never the right direction for the country,” he said.

In a public appearance last year, Mr. Pompeo also appeared to take a shot at the 45th president by criticizing “celebrity leaders” when urging GOP voters to choose ahead of the 2024 election.

2024 Race

Mr. Pompeo’s interview comes as the former president was named the “presumptive nominee” by the Republican National Committee (RNC) last week after his last major Republican challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, dropped out of the 2024 race after failing to secure enough delegates. President Trump won 14 out of 15 states on Super Tuesday, with only Vermont—which notably has an open primary—going for Ms. Haley, who served as President Trump’s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

On March 8, the RNC held a meeting in Houston during which committee members voted in favor of President Trump’s nomination.

“Congratulations to President Donald J. Trump on his huge primary victory!” the organization said in a statement last week. “I’d also like to congratulate Nikki Haley for running a hard-fought campaign and becoming the first woman to win a Republican presidential contest.”

Earlier this year, the former president criticized the idea of being named the presumptive nominee after reports suggested that the RNC would do so before the Super Tuesday contests and while Ms. Haley was still in the race.

Also on March 8, the RNC voted to name Trump-endorsed officials to head the organization. Michael Whatley, a North Carolina Republican, was elected the party’s new national chairman in a vote in Houston, and Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, was voted in as co-chair.

“The RNC is going to be the vanguard of a movement that will work tirelessly every single day to elect our nominee, Donald J. Trump, as the 47th President of the United States,” Mr. Whatley told RNC members in a speech after being elected, replacing former chair Ronna McDaniel. Ms. Trump is expected to focus largely on fundraising and media appearances.

President Trump hasn’t signaled whom he would appoint to various federal agencies if he’s reelected in November. He also hasn’t said who his pick for a running mate would be, but has offered several suggestions in recent interviews.

In various interviews, the former president has mentioned Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, among others.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:00

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International

Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and…

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Riley Gaines Explains How Women's Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and bewildering tunnel of social justice cultism?  Global events have been so frenetic that many people might not remember, but only a couple years ago Big Tech companies and numerous governments were openly aligned in favor of mass censorship.  Not just to prevent the public from investigating the facts surrounding the pandemic farce, but to silence anyone questioning the validity of woke concepts like trans ideology. 

From 2020-2022 was the closest the west has come in a long time to a complete erasure of freedom of speech.  Even today there are still countries and Europe and places like Canada or Australia that are charging forward with draconian speech laws.  The phrase "radical speech" is starting to circulate within pro-censorship circles in reference to any platform where people are allowed to talk critically.  What is radical speech?  Basically, it's any discussion that runs contrary to the beliefs of the political left.

Open hatred of moderate or conservative ideals is perfectly acceptable, but don't ever shine a negative light on woke activism, or you might be a terrorist.

Riley Gaines has experienced this double standard first hand.  She was even assaulted and taken hostage at an event in 2023 at San Francisco State University when leftists protester tried to trap her in a room and demanded she "pay them to let her go."  Campus police allegedly witnessed the incident but charges were never filed and surveillance footage from the college was never released.  

It's probably the last thing a champion female swimmer ever expects, but her head-on collision with the trans movement and the institutional conspiracy to push it on the public forced her to become a counter-culture voice of reason rather than just an athlete.

For years the independent media argued that no matter how much we expose the insanity of men posing as women to compete and dominate women's sports, nothing will really change until the real female athletes speak up and fight back.  Riley Gaines and those like her represent that necessary rebellion and a desperately needed return to common sense and reason.

In a recent interview on the Joe Rogan Podcast, Gaines related some interesting information on the inner workings of the NCAA and the subversive schemes surrounding trans athletes.  Not only were women participants essentially strong-armed by colleges and officials into quietly going along with the program, there was also a concerted propaganda effort.  Competition ceremonies were rigged as vehicles for promoting trans athletes over everyone else. 

The bottom line?  The competitions didn't matter.  The real women and their achievements didn't matter.  The only thing that mattered to officials were the photo ops; dudes pretending to be chicks posing with awards for the gushing corporate media.  The agenda took precedence.

Lia Thomas, formerly known as William Thomas, was more than an activist invading female sports, he was also apparently a science project fostered and protected by the athletic establishment.  It's important to understand that the political left does not care about female athletes.  They do not care about women's sports.  They don't care about the integrity of the environments they co-opt.  Their only goal is to identify viable platforms with social impact and take control of them.  Women's sports are seen as a vehicle for public indoctrination, nothing more.

The reasons why they covet women's sports are varied, but a primary motive is the desire to assert the fallacy that men and women are "the same" psychologically as well as physically.  They want the deconstruction of biological sex and identity as nothing more than "social constructs" subject to personal preference.  If they can destroy what it means to be a man or a woman, they can destroy the very foundations of relationships, families and even procreation.  

For now it seems as though the trans agenda is hitting a wall with much of the public aware of it and less afraid to criticize it.  Social media companies might be able to silence some people, but they can't silence everyone.  However, there is still a significant threat as the movement continues to target children through the public education system and women's sports are not out of the woods yet.   

The ultimate solution is for women athletes around the world to organize and widely refuse to participate in any competitions in which biological men are allowed.  The only way to save women's sports is for women to be willing to end them, at least until institutions that put doctrine ahead of logic are made irrelevant.          

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:20

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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to star…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.
Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
There is much more in the article.

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