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Aviat Networks Issues Open Letter to Ceragon Networks Shareholders to Correct the Latest False Claims and Mischaracterizations from the Ceragon Board

Aviat Networks Issues Open Letter to Ceragon Networks Shareholders to Correct the Latest False Claims and Mischaracterizations from the Ceragon Board
PR Newswire
AUSTIN, Texas, Aug. 11, 2022

Aviat urges shareholders to vote on the GOLD proxy card f…

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Aviat Networks Issues Open Letter to Ceragon Networks Shareholders to Correct the Latest False Claims and Mischaracterizations from the Ceragon Board

PR Newswire

Aviat urges shareholders to vote on the GOLD proxy card for ALL FIVE Aviat nominees to elect directors who will support near- and long-term value creation at Ceragon

AUSTIN, Texas, Aug. 11, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVNW) ("Aviat"), the leading expert in wireless transport solutions, today issued the following open letter to shareholders of Ceragon Networks Ltd. (NASDAQ: CRNT) ("Ceragon" or the "Company") to correct the latest false claims and mischaracterizations made by Ceragon's Board of Directors ("Board") in its August 8, 2022 letter to shareholders.

Dear fellow Ceragon shareholders,

Aviat has given the Board many opportunities to consider and negotiate a transaction that would provide shareholders like you immediate value at a significant premium. Rather than engage in fruitful discussion, the Board has delayed, deferred and attempted to distract you with a series of false and misleading arguments designed to disguise their persistent failure to deliver value. Earlier this week, the Board rejected Aviat's revised proposal to acquire Ceragon for $3.08 per share in cash and stock, in another letter that distorts the record and which is replete with false claims and mischaracterizations. We're writing to you today to once again set the record straight.

THE PROPOSED TRANSACTION WOULD DELIVER SIGNIFICANT VALUE TO SHAREHOLDERS, IN EXCESS OF WHAT CERAGON CAN ACHIEVE THROUGH ITS CURRENT STRATEGY, AND WITH SUBSTANTIALLY LESS EXECUTION RISK.

  • Aviat's revised proposal represents a substantial premium of 47% to the closing price of Ceragon shares on June 27, 2022, of $2.09 (the last close price prior to Aviat's first public offer) and a 64% premium to Ceragon's 60-day volume-weighted average share price of $1.88.
  • Analysts' price targets reflect what Ceragon could achieve at some point in the future. However, following several quarters of operational challenges, a rising debt load, negative EPS and cash flow, and a botched chip rollout, we see these targets as, at best, highly aspirational. If Ceragon were to combine with Aviat, it would have the management, discipline, resources and broader platform to achieve its full potential.
  • Ceragon lowered its annual guidance in the first quarter of 2022, and in the second quarter it missed top line consensus, continuing its pattern of underperformance, having missed analysts' consensus earnings expectations for five of the last ten quarters. Continued performance at these woeful levels will lead to analyst price target reductions.
  • While Ceragon touts its progress in North America, industry league tables list Aviat as the number one player in North America, with Ceragon not even among the top three.1
  • In its August 8 report, independent proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services ("ISS") noted that Ceragon, "underperformed peers and the Nasdaq index over all measurement periods ended on the unaffected date… While revenue growth deceleration has also been an issue at peers, the Company's gross margins are below pre-pandemic levels and have not shown signs of recovery over the past several quarters."2 ISS is an independent shareholder advisory service whose recommendations are relied upon by thousands of institutional investors.

Results like these are what Ceragon's Board expects you to believe is "strong business momentum." Since the beginning of 2019, Ceragon has incurred negative free cash flow of $48 million as it has attempted to produce its much-delayed next generation chip, and this burn rate has accelerated as the company has consumed $35 million of the $48 million in just the last 18 months. We believe that this 28-nanometer chip, when it is finally rolled out, will consume more power and create cost, system design, and supply chain challenges. Ceragon's debt-laden balance sheet will not support the expensive redesign needed to address these problems, which we fear could lead this entrenched Board to raise additional capital through a dilutive equity offering.

The truth is that Ceragon is struggling on its own, and is not going to achieve outlandish price targets, or even its own projections. We continue to believe that Ceragon would see tremendous advantages from being part of a larger platform with more scale and resources as part of Aviat. In fact, ISS noted that a "lack of clear progress" could send Ceragon's stock lower in the absence of a transaction, including one with Aviat.

THE CERAGON BOARD HAS DONE VIRTUALLY NOTHING TO EXPLORE (AND EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO PREVENT) A POTENTIAL TRANSACTION WITH AVIAT OR TO MAXIMIZE VALUE FOR ALL SHAREHOLDERS.

Despite Ceragon's claims to the contrary, the Board has repeatedly erected roadblocks to exploring a value creating transaction with Aviat at any price, even declining to name their own price when offered the opportunity. Instead, they indicated it would take two months to determine a price, which is not what would reasonably be expected from a party genuinely interested in "maximizing shareholder value" – and which is grossly inconsistent with how quickly they rejected both our original and revised public offers. ISS said that "it is questionable to what extent the board has been open to negotiating a deal," and that the Board "does not appear to have engaged in detailed discussions."

We have been crystal clear since making our offer public on June 27 that our very strong preference is to negotiate a mutually agreeable transaction with Ceragon, and we have always believed that eventually they would come to the bargaining table. Unfortunately, since June, Ceragon has spent less than 30 minutes total in dialogue with Aviat, preferring instead to spend their time coming up with specious objections like demanding a reverse termination fee (payable from Aviat to Ceragon if a mutual definitive agreement was entered into but could not be closed) that was both unorthodox and outrageously high (~$60 million) as a prerequisite for discussions; complaining that our proposed reverse termination fee was too low, when in fact all we proposed is that it be based on market standards; or demanding that Aviat agree that Ceragon would not have to pay a termination fee (in the event someone else proposed to buy them after they executed a definitive agreement with Aviat).

What we now recognize is that this Board cannot come to its senses, because the Board lacks the necessary independence to do the right thing for shareholders.

CERAGON SHAREHOLDERS DESERVE A CHANCE FOR GREATER VALUE. THE ZISAPEL BLOC ON THE CERAGON BOARD IS THE PROBLEM. REPLACING A MAJORITY OF THE BOARD IS THE SOLUTION.

Three members of Ceragon's seven-seat Board are closely tied to a fourth director, the Company's Chairman, Zohar Zisapel, and serve on boards or as executives of other companies he controls. Since their other business interests are closely tied to him, it is easy to understand why these directors would support Mr. Zisapel's interests over those of other Ceragon shareholders. ISS said that "investors may question to what extent they would challenge the company's chairman/co-founder." Together this bloc provides Mr. Zisapel with effective majority control of the Board.

Please note that although Mr. Zisapel founded Ceragon, he neither owns nor controls the majority of voting shares. In fact, in February 2021, he sold approximately one-third of his Ceragon shares, when the stock was trading at over $5.00 per share, well above where it has traded since, and has not replenished his position since, showing little confidence in Ceragon's future.

The Zisapel bloc has presided over considerable destruction of shareholder value:

  • Former Ceragon CEO Ira Palti oversaw total shareholder return of -21% during his tenure as CEO of Ceragon versus Russell 2000 TSR of 323% during the same period. That is an underperformance of 343%. ISS agrees that Ceragon has underperformed under Mr. Palti's leadership and recommends that shareholders vote FOR his removal from the Board.
  • Yael Langer, who is currently employed by Mr. Zisapel, has been on the Ceragon Board since 2000, presiding over consistent underperformance. ISS also recommends that shareholders vote FOR Ms. Langer's removal from the Board to bring a fresh view to Ceragon's challenges.
  • Mr. Zisapel himself has watched Ceragon's stock price decline by 87% over the 22 years since he took Ceragon public in August 2000. He has been Chair for every one of those 22 years.
  • David Ripstein was previously employed by Mr. Zisapel, and is CEO of another company that demands considerable time and attention, which leads us to fear he would be quick to defer to Mr. Zisapel and Mr. Palti.

As the Board of a publicly traded company, Ceragon's directors should represent the interests of all shareholders, not just Mr. Zisapel.

A VOTE FOR ALL OF AVIAT'S FIVE DIRECTOR NOMINEES ON THE GOLD PROXY CARD IS THE PATH TO CREATING GREATER BOARD INDEPENDENCE AND GREATER SHAREHOLDER VALUE.

All five of our nominees are thoroughly independent – from Aviat itself, from Ceragon's management and, perhaps most importantly, from Mr. Zisapel – and able to provide a fresh, unbiased perspective at a critical junction for Ceragon. No matter what Ceragon tries to allege, when elected, all five of Aviat's nominees would honor their fiduciary responsibility to maximize shareholder value and evaluate and oversee fairly not just our proposal to acquire Ceragon but also any other path to value creation.

To set the record straight on one of Ceragon's most outlandish red herrings, Aviat director nominee Jonathan Foster has the public company board experience to be an immediate asset to the Ceragon Board. Serving today on four other public company boards, service on Ceragon's Board would not make him over-boarded according to the criteria of either ISS or proxy advisory firm Glass Lewis, both of which consider a director over-boarded only if they serve on six or more boards concurrently. Ceragon has also used cherry-picked dates in an attempt to distort the record of another Aviat director nominee, Dennis Sadlowski, who as first a board member and then CEO of CECO Environmental Corporation helped that company significantly reduce its debt, strengthen its leadership team and implement strong processes and overall operational rigor.

As usual, the Ceragon Board is trying to make issues where none exist, hoping you'll excuse them for refusing to engage in discussions regarding a combination with Aviat that would yield a significant premium for shareholders and provide a more effective platform for its technologies. Only by voting FOR Aviat's proposal to remove three entrenched Ceragon directors and FOR the election of ALL FIVE of Aviat's nominees on the GOLD proxy card TODAY can shareholders realize the considerable value of this combination.

YOUR VOTE IS CRUCIAL. Please visit ValueForCeragon.com for more information.

Sincerely,

Peter A. Smith
Aviat Networks
President and Chief Executive Officer

About Aviat Networks, Inc.
Aviat Networks, Inc. is the leading expert in wireless transport solutions and works to provide dependable products, services and support to its customers. With more than one million systems sold into 170 countries worldwide, communications service providers and private network operators including state/local government, utility, federal government and defense organizations trust Aviat with their critical applications. Coupled with a long history of microwave innovations, Aviat provides a comprehensive suite of localized professional and support services enabling customers to drastically simplify both their networks and their lives. For more than 70 years, the experts at Aviat have delivered high-performance products, simplified operations, and the best overall customer experience. Aviat Networks is headquartered in Austin, Texas. For more information, visit www.aviatnetworks.com or connect with Aviat Networks on TwitterFacebook and LinkedIn.

Forward-Looking Statements
The information contained in this document includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, without limitations, statements regarding the proposed transaction between Aviat and Ceragon, the results of the requested extraordinary general meeting of shareholders of Ceragon, Ceragon's actions in connection therewith, and any potential related litigation. All statements, trend analyses and other information contained herein regarding the foregoing beliefs and expectations, as well as about the markets for the services and products of Aviat and trends in revenue, and other statements identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, including, without limitation, "anticipate," "believe," "plan," "estimate," "expect," "goal," "will," "see," "continue," "delivering," "view," and "intend," or the negative of these terms or other similar expressions, constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are neither historical facts nor assurances of future performance. Instead, forward-looking statements are based on estimates reflecting the current beliefs, expectations and assumptions of the senior management of Aviat regarding the future of its business, future plans and strategies, projections, anticipated events and trends, the economy and other future conditions. Such forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements should therefore be considered in light of various important factors, including those set forth in this document. Therefore, you should not rely on any of these forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from estimates or projections contained in the forward-looking statements include the following:

  • the impact of COVID-19 on our business, operations and cash flows;

  • continued price and margin erosion as a result of increased competition in the microwave transmission industry;

  • our ability to realize the anticipated benefits of any proposed or recent acquisitions, including our proposed transaction with Ceragon, within the anticipated timeframe or at all, including the risk that proposed or recent acquisitions will not be integrated successfully;

  • the results of the extraordinary general meeting of Ceragon's shareholders;

  • the impact of the volume, timing, and customer, product, and geographic mix of our product orders;

  • the timing of our receipt of payment for products or services from our customers;

  • our ability to meet projected new product development dates or anticipated cost reductions of new products;

  • our suppliers' inability to perform and deliver on time as a result of their financial condition, component shortages, the effects of COVID-19 or other supply chain constraints;

  • the effects of inflation and the timing and extent of changes in the prices and overall demand for and availability of our inputs;

  • customer acceptance of new products;

  • the ability of our subcontractors to timely perform;

  • weakness in the global economy affecting customer spending;

  • retention of our key personnel;

  • our ability to manage and maintain key customer relationships;

  • uncertain economic conditions in the telecommunications sector combined with operator and supplier consolidation;

  • our failure to protect our Intellectual property rights or defend against Intellectual property infringement claims by others;

  • the results of our restructuring efforts;

  • the ability to preserve and use our net operating loss carryforwards;

  • the effects of currency and interest rate risks;

  • the effects of current and future government regulations, including the effects of current restrictions on various commercial and economic activities in response to the COVID-19 pandemic;

  • general economic conditions, including uncertainty regarding the timing, pace and extent of an economic recovery in the United States and other countries where we conduct business;

  • the conduct of unethical business practices in developing countries;

  • the impact of political turmoil in countries where we have significant business;

  • the impact of tariffs, the adoption of trade restrictions affecting our products or suppliers, a United States withdrawal from or significant renegotiation of trade agreements, the occurrence of trade wars, the closing of border crossings, and other changes in trade regulations or relationships; and

  • Aviat's ability to implement our stock repurchase program or the extent to which it enhances long-term stockholder value.

For more information regarding the risks and uncertainties for Aviat's business, see "Risk Factors" in Aviat's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") on August 25, 2021, as well as other reports filed by Aviat with the SEC from time to time. Aviat does not undertake any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statement, whether written or oral, for any reason, except as required by law, even as new information becomes available or other events occur in the future.

Additional Information

This document does not constitute an offer to sell or exchange, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or exchange, any securities, nor will there be any sale of securities in any states or jurisdictions in which such offer or sale or exchange would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such jurisdiction. No offering of securities will be made except by means of a prospectus meeting the requirements of section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933 or an exemption therefrom.

In connection with any transaction between Aviat and Ceragon that involves the issuance of Aviat shares to the Ceragon shareholders, Aviat will file a registration statement with the SEC. INVESTORS ARE URGED TO READ THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT, ANY AMENDMENTS THERETO AND OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS THAT MAY BE FILED WITH THE SEC CAREFULLY AND IN THEIR ENTIRETY WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THE TRANSACTION. Investors will also be able to obtain copies of the registration statement and other documents containing important information about each of the companies once such documents are filed with the SEC, without charge, at the SEC's web site at www.sec.gov.

Investor Contacts

Aviat Networks
Andrew Fredrickson
+1-408-501-6214
andrew.fredrickson@aviatnet.com

Okapi Partners LLC
Bruce Goldfarb / Chuck Garske / Teresa Huang
+1-212-297-0720
info@okapipartners.com

Media Contact

Abernathy MacGregor
Sydney Isaacs / Jeremy Jacobs
+1-212-371-5999
sri@abmac.com / jrj@abmac.com

____________________

1 Source: Skylight Research

2 Permission to use quotations from ISS was neither sought nor obtained.

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SOURCE Aviat Networks, Inc.

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Chronic stress and inflammation linked to societal and environmental impacts in new study

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors…

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From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors can cause chronic inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our thinking and behavior.   

Credit: Image: Vodovotz et al/Frontiers

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors can cause chronic inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our thinking and behavior.   

A new hypothesis published in Frontiers in Science suggests the negative impacts may extend far further.   

“We propose that stress, inflammation, and consequently impaired cognition in individuals can scale up to communities and populations,” explained lead author Prof Yoram Vodovotz of the University of Pittsburgh, USA.

“This could affect the decision-making and behavior of entire societies, impair our cognitive ability to address complex issues like climate change, social unrest, and infectious disease – and ultimately lead to a self-sustaining cycle of societal dysfunction and environmental degradation,” he added.

Bodily inflammation ‘mapped’ in the brain  

One central premise to the hypothesis is an association between chronic inflammation and cognitive dysfunction.  

“The cause of this well-known phenomenon is not currently known,” said Vodovotz. “We propose a mechanism, which we call the ‘central inflammation map’.”    

The authors’ novel idea is that the brain creates its own copy of bodily inflammation. Normally, this inflammation map allows the brain to manage the inflammatory response and promote healing.   

When inflammation is high or chronic, however, the response goes awry and can damage healthy tissues and organs. The authors suggest the inflammation map could similarly harm the brain and impair cognition, emotion, and behavior.   

Accelerated spread of stress and inflammation online   

A second premise is the spread of chronic inflammation from individuals to populations.  

“While inflammation is not contagious per se, it could still spread via the transmission of stress among people,” explained Vodovotz.   

The authors further suggest that stress is being transmitted faster than ever before, through social media and other digital communications.  

“People are constantly bombarded with high levels of distressing information, be it the news, negative online comments, or a feeling of inadequacy when viewing social media feeds,” said Vodovotz. “We hypothesize that this new dimension of human experience, from which it is difficult to escape, is driving stress, chronic inflammation, and cognitive impairment across global societies.”   

Inflammation as a driver of social and planetary disruption  

These ideas shift our view of inflammation as a biological process restricted to an individual. Instead, the authors see it as a multiscale process linking molecular, cellular, and physiological interactions in each of us to altered decision-making and behavior in populations – and ultimately to large-scale societal and environmental impacts.  

“Stress-impaired judgment could explain the chaotic and counter-intuitive responses of large parts of the global population to stressful events such as climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic,” explained Vodovotz.  

“An inability to address these and other stressors may propagate a self-fulfilling sense of pervasive danger, causing further stress, inflammation, and impaired cognition in a runaway, positive feedback loop,” he added.  

The fact that current levels of global stress have not led to widespread societal disorder could indicate an equally strong stabilizing effect from “controllers” such as trust in laws, science, and multinational organizations like the United Nations.   

“However, societal norms and institutions are increasingly being questioned, at times rightly so as relics of a foregone era,” said Prof Paul Verschure of Radboud University, the Netherlands, and a co-author of the article. “The challenge today is how we can ward off a new adversarial era of instability due to global stress caused by a multi-scale combination of geopolitical fragmentation, conflicts, and ecological collapse amplified by existential angst, cognitive overload, and runaway disinformation.”    

Reducing social media exposure as part of the solution  

The authors developed a mathematical model to test their ideas and explore ways to reduce stress and build resilience.  

“Preliminary results highlight the need for interventions at multiple levels and scales,” commented co-author Prof Julia Arciero of Indiana University, USA.  

“While anti-inflammatory drugs are sometimes used to treat medical conditions associated with inflammation, we do not believe these are the whole answer for individuals,” said Dr David Katz, co-author and a specialist in preventive and lifestyle medicine based in the US. “Lifestyle changes such as healthy nutrition, exercise, and reducing exposure to stressful online content could also be important.”  

“The dawning new era of precision and personalized therapeutics could also offer enormous potential,” he added.  

At the societal level, the authors suggest creating calm public spaces and providing education on the norms and institutions that keep our societies stable and functioning.  

“While our ‘inflammation map’ hypothesis and corresponding mathematical model are a start, a coordinated and interdisciplinary research effort is needed to define interventions that would improve the lives of individuals and the resilience of communities to stress. We hope our article stimulates scientists around the world to take up this challenge,” Vodovotz concluded.  

The article is part of the Frontiers in Science multimedia article hub ‘A multiscale map of inflammatory stress’. The hub features a video, an explainer, a version of the article written for kids, and an editorial, viewpoints, and policy outlook from other eminent experts: Prof David Almeida (Penn State University, USA), Prof Pietro Ghezzi (University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy), and Dr Ioannis P Androulakis (Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, USA). 


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Acadia’s Nuplazid fails PhIII study due to higher-than-expected placebo effect

After years of trying to expand the market territory for Nuplazid, Acadia Pharmaceuticals might have hit a dead end, with a Phase III fail in schizophrenia…

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After years of trying to expand the market territory for Nuplazid, Acadia Pharmaceuticals might have hit a dead end, with a Phase III fail in schizophrenia due to the placebo arm performing better than expected.

Steve Davis

“We will continue to analyze these data with our scientific advisors, but we do not intend to conduct any further clinical trials with pimavanserin,” CEO Steve Davis said in a Monday press release. Acadia’s stock $ACAD dropped by 17.41% before the market opened Tuesday.

Pimavanserin, a serotonin inverse agonist and also a 5-HT2A receptor antagonist, is already in the market with the brand name Nuplazid for Parkinson’s disease psychosis. Efforts to expand into other indications such as Alzheimer’s-related psychosis and major depression have been unsuccessful, and previous trials in schizophrenia have yielded mixed data at best. Its February presentation does not list other pimavanserin studies in progress.

The Phase III ADVANCE-2 trial investigated 34 mg pimavanserin versus placebo in 454 patients who have negative symptoms of schizophrenia. The study used the negative symptom assessment-16 (NSA-16) total score as a primary endpoint and followed participants up to week 26. Study participants have control of positive symptoms due to antipsychotic therapies.

The company said that the change from baseline in this measure for the treatment arm was similar between the Phase II ADVANCE-1 study and ADVANCE-2 at -11.6 and -11.8, respectively. However, the placebo was higher in ADVANCE-2 at -11.1, when this was -8.5 in ADVANCE-1. The p-value in ADVANCE-2 was 0.4825.

In July last year, another Phase III schizophrenia trial — by Sumitomo and Otsuka — also reported negative results due to what the company noted as Covid-19 induced placebo effect.

According to Mizuho Securities analysts, ADVANCE-2 data were disappointing considering the company applied what it learned from ADVANCE-1, such as recruiting patients outside the US to alleviate a high placebo effect. The Phase III recruited participants in Argentina and Europe.

Analysts at Cowen added that the placebo effect has been a “notorious headwind” in US-based trials, which appears to “now extend” to ex-US studies. But they also noted ADVANCE-1 reported a “modest effect” from the drug anyway.

Nonetheless, pimavanserin’s safety profile in the late-stage study “was consistent with previous clinical trials,” with the drug having an adverse event rate of 30.4% versus 40.3% with placebo, the company said. Back in 2018, even with the FDA approval for Parkinson’s psychosis, there was an intense spotlight on Nuplazid’s safety profile.

Acadia previously aimed to get Nuplazid approved for Alzheimer’s-related psychosis but had many hurdles. The drug faced an adcomm in June 2022 that voted 9-3 noting that the drug is unlikely to be effective in this setting, culminating in a CRL a few months later.

As for the company’s next R&D milestones, Mizuho analysts said it won’t be anytime soon: There is the Phase III study for ACP-101 in Prader-Willi syndrome with data expected late next year and a Phase II trial for ACP-204 in Alzheimer’s disease psychosis with results anticipated in 2026.

Acadia collected $549.2 million in full-year 2023 revenues for Nuplazid, with $143.9 million in the fourth quarter.

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Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings

Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution…

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Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites.

“Such is unsurprising, given that retail investors often fall victim to the psychological behavior of the “fear of missing out.” The chart below shows the “dumb money index” versus the S&P 500. Once again, retail investors are very long equities relative to the institutional players ascribed to being the “smart money.””

“The difference between “smart” and “dumb money” investors shows that, more often than not, the “dumb money” invests near market tops and sells near market bottoms.”

Net Smart Dumb Money vs Market

That enthusiasm has increased sharply since last November as stocks surged in hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. As noted by Sentiment Trader:

“Over the past 18 weeks, the straight-up rally has moved us to an interesting juncture in the Sentiment Cycle. For the past few weeks, the S&P 500 has demonstrated a high positive correlation to the ‘Enthusiasm’ part of the cycle and a highly negative correlation to the ‘Panic’ phase.”

Investor Enthusiasm

That frenzy to chase the markets, driven by the psychological bias of the “fear of missing out,” has permeated the entirety of the market. As noted in This Is Nuts:”

“Since then, the entire market has surged higher following last week’s earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA). The reason I say “this is nuts” is the assumption that all companies were going to grow earnings and revenue at Nvidia’s rate. There is little doubt about Nvidia’s earnings and revenue growth rates. However, to maintain that growth pace indefinitely, particularly at 32x price-to-sales, means others like AMD and Intel must lose market share.”

Nvidia Price To Sales

Of course, it is not just a speculative frenzy in the markets for stocks, specifically anything related to “artificial intelligence,” but that exuberance has spilled over into gold and cryptocurrencies.

Birds Of A Feather

There are a couple of ways to measure exuberance in the assets. While sentiment measures examine the broad market, technical indicators can reflect exuberance on individual asset levels. However, before we get to our charts, we need a brief explanation of statistics, specifically, standard deviation.

As I discussed in “Revisiting Bob Farrell’s 10 Investing Rules”:

“Like a rubber band that has been stretched too far – it must be relaxed in order to be stretched again. This is exactly the same for stock prices that are anchored to their moving averages. Trends that get overextended in one direction, or another, always return to their long-term average. Even during a strong uptrend or strong downtrend, prices often move back (revert) to a long-term moving average.”

The idea of “stretching the rubber band” can be measured in several ways, but I will limit our discussion this week to Standard Deviation and measuring deviation with “Bollinger Bands.”

“Standard Deviation” is defined as:

“A measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is calculated as the square root of the variance.”

In plain English, this means that the further away from the average that an event occurs, the more unlikely it becomes. As shown below, out of 1000 occurrences, only three will fall outside the area of 3 standard deviations. 95.4% of the time, events will occur within two standard deviations.

Standard Deviation Chart

A second measure of “exuberance” is “relative strength.”

“In technical analysis, the relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can read from 0 to 100.

Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.” – Investopedia

With those two measures, let’s look at Nvidia (NVDA), the poster child of speculative momentum trading in the markets. Nvidia trades more than 3 standard deviations above its moving average, and its RSI is 81. The last time this occurred was in July of 2023 when Nvidia consolidated and corrected prices through November.

NVDA chart vs Bollinger Bands

Interestingly, gold also trades well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI reading of 75. Given that gold is supposed to be a “safe haven” or “risk off” asset, it is instead getting swept up in the current market exuberance.

Gold vs Bollinger Bands

The same is seen with digital currencies. Given the recent approval of spot, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the panic bid to buy Bitcoin has pushed the price well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI of 73.

Bitcoin vs Bollinger Bands

In other words, the stock market frenzy to “buy anything that is going up” has spread from just a handful of stocks related to artificial intelligence to gold and digital currencies.

It’s All Relative

We can see the correlation between stock market exuberance and gold and digital currency, which has risen since 2015 but accelerated following the post-pandemic, stimulus-fueled market frenzy. Since the market, gold and cryptocurrencies, or Bitcoin for our purposes, have disparate prices, we have rebased the performance to 100 in 2015.

Gold was supposed to be an inflation hedge. Yet, in 2022, gold prices fell as the market declined and inflation surged to 9%. However, as inflation has fallen and the stock market surged, so has gold. Notably, since 2015, gold and the market have moved in a more correlated pattern, which has reduced the hedging effect of gold in portfolios. In other words, during the subsequent market decline, gold will likely track stocks lower, failing to provide its “wealth preservation” status for investors.

SP500 vs Gold

The same goes for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is substantially more volatile than gold and tends to ebb and flow with the overall market. As sentiment surges in the S&P 500, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies follow suit as speculative appetites increase. Unfortunately, for individuals once again piling into Bitcoin to chase rising prices, if, or when, the market corrects, the decline in cryptocurrencies will likely substantially outpace the decline in market-based equities. This is particularly the case as Wall Street can now short the spot-Bitcoin ETFs, creating additional selling pressure on Bitcoin.

SP500 vs Bitcoin

Just for added measure, here is Bitcoin versus gold.

Gold vs Bitcoin

Not A Recommendation

There are many narratives surrounding the markets, digital currency, and gold. However, in today’s market, more than in previous years, all assets are getting swept up into the investor-feeding frenzy.

Sure, this time could be different. I am only making an observation and not an investment recommendation.

However, from a portfolio management perspective, it will likely pay to remain attentive to the correlated risk between asset classes. If some event causes a reversal in bullish exuberance, cash and bonds may be the only place to hide.

The post Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings appeared first on RIA.

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