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Asia ignores Non-Farm Payrolls

Friday’s gigantic Non-Farm Payrolls miss, as payrolls rose by only 266,000 jobs, is quickly being dismissed as an anomaly. The signs were already there in New York, with US 10-year yields plunging to 1.45% before rising back to 1.57% at the close. Stock..

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Friday’s gigantic Non-Farm Payrolls miss, as payrolls rose by only 266,000 jobs, is quickly being dismissed as an anomaly. The signs were already there in New York, with US 10-year yields plunging to 1.45% before rising back to 1.57% at the close. Stock markets rallied while the US dollar was pummelled. All very much global recovery behaviour with a dash of nagging inflation doubts.

 

Asian stock markets are off to a positive start today, but the commodity space is the real eye-opener. Shanghai Steel Rebar futures opened 10% higher and are now still 6.0% higher. Iron ore futures are 7.70% higher, while copper has gained 2.0%. So, while the US Non-Farm Payrolls post-mortems continue, as far as Asia is concerned, the global recovery is Thunderbirds Are Go.

 

Another mover this morning is the British pound after the results of the Scottish election have started rolling in. GBP/USD has risen 45 points to 1.4030 this morning, with sterling outperforming on the crosses as well, notably GBP/JPY, which is up 0.60% to 152.70. Although the Scottish National Party looks to have won the election, it appears it will not command an outright majority and another coalition government is on the way. Markets have decided that this reduces the risk of Scotland asking for another independence referendum. The whole situation is disingenuous, though, as Westminster has to agree to a referendum, and I can’t see them feeling the need to do so. Nevertheless, the market thinks this is a reason to buy sterling, and I’ll not stand in the way of that.

 

The other notable weekend news was the shutdown of the US Colonial Pipeline by hackers demanding a ransom, probably in bitcoin. That has pushed oil prices slightly higher today, but the real effect will be felt in refined products if the shutdown is drawn out. RBOB Gasoline futures spiked higher this morning in electronic trading, but have since retreated, although they remain 2.0% higher than Friday. The situation is only bullish for oil at the periphery, as this is not an oil supply problem; it is a refined products issue.

 

Cryptocurrencies had another emotional weekend, thanks to Elon Musk. Dogecoin, or as I call it, Pumpanddumpandpumpcoin, enjoyed a 40% range. Having risen on Friday after a Musk tweet with a dog, it fell when he called Dogecoin a hustle in a skit on Saturday Night Live, which he hustled. Mr Musk announced he was sending a satellite to the moon, much like Pumpanddumpandpumpcoin’s price action, next year in another tweet today. Dogecoin will likely follow suit.

 

On reflection, the juvenile behaviour of a group of billionaires and washed-up 70’s rock stars in leading an unwitting army of desperate retail “investors” to a get rich quick Dutch tulip garden is sad to see. Someone bought Dogecoin before the SNL programme and was nursing 40% losses after it aired. On the other hand, if you are stupid enough to stake a goodly portion of your net wealth on juvenile tweets and a comedy show, you probably deserve everything you get. I am not sure how carnage, anarchy and group-think amongst investors, the man on the street, financial institutions and the financial press has to occur in the crypto space before the world’s regulators step in and stop the madness. I can only hope it will be sooner rather than later.

 

Bitcoin, meanwhile, rose to USD58.800.00 of fiat US Dollar currency backed by the taxpayer revenue of the United States. The technical picture suggests the correction lower has run its course for now in a buy-everything world. A rally through USD60,000.00 will signal a test of the all-time highs around USD64,900.00, and possibly more if the US dollar stays weak and because of the announcement that a prominent investment bank has established a cryptocurrency trading team. No doubt there will be more inanity from “institutional experts” that this is another sign of Bitcoin and crypto’s ascent as “mainstream financial assets.”

 

The smell of easy money always attracts an army of wannabee easy money consumers. If cryptocurrencies were a pile of freshly laid steaming dung in a cow paddock, it would attract many flies, some of which may also be fans of SNL. But it’s still dung. And when it dries out, even most of the flies get bored.

 

Financial dinosaur moment over, it’s time to look at the economic calendar in Asia today. After the frenzy of last week, the pickings are bare. South Korean Private Bank Lending rose 3.0% YoY in March, a neutral result. But Australia delivered yet another healthy crop of data. NAB Business Confidence in April rose to 26, which Final March Retail Sales rose 1.30%, both handsomely outperforming. Looking at the data today and the ballistic rises in commodity prices this morning, the Lucky Country seems set to remain very lucky.

 

Malaysian Construction Output is set to remain negative this afternoon. Still, more attention will be focused on the government announcement of quite aggressive movement restrictions in parts of the country for the next fortnight. That encompasses the Eid migration, like Indonesia, and is a vigorous attempt to control the spread of Covid-19. Like Singapore, Japan, Thailand, and most of the peripheral ASEAN, Malaysia is dealing with a new wave of surging cases, with only Indonesia seemingly dodging the bullet. If the reaction in Singapore markets is anything to go by vis-a-vis new restrictions, Malaysian equities will struggle ahead of the end of Ramadan holidays this week.

 

From a data perspective, Asia is likely to be more focused on Inflation and New Loan data from China and US inflation data, all due this week. The ECB also meets, but this is officially a Non-Monetary Policy Meeting. The economic calendar has a more benign look about it this week after the fireworks of last. Meaning financial markets will be swept along in the ebbs and flows of global recovery sentiment.

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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to star…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.
Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
There is much more in the article.

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RFK Jr. Reveals Vice President Contenders

RFK Jr. Reveals Vice President Contenders

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times,

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and former…

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RFK Jr. Reveals Vice President Contenders

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times,

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and former Minnesota governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura are among the potential running mates for independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the New York Times reported on March 12.

Citing “two people familiar with the discussions,” the New York Times wrote that Mr. Kennedy “recently approached” Mr. Rodgers and Mr. Ventura about the vice president’s role, “and both have welcomed the overtures.”

Mr. Kennedy has talked to Mr. Rodgers “pretty continuously” over the last month, according to the story. The candidate has kept in touch with Mr. Ventura since the former governor introduced him at a February voter rally in Tucson, Arizona.

Stefanie Spear, who is the campaign press secretary, told The Epoch Times on March 12 that “Mr. Kennedy did share with the New York Times that he’s considering Aaron Rodgers and Jesse Ventura as running mates along with others on a short list.”

Ms. Spear added that Mr. Kennedy will name his running mate in the upcoming weeks.

Former Democrat presidential candidates Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard declined the opportunity to join Mr. Kennedy’s ticket, according to the New York Times.

Mr. Kennedy has also reportedly talked to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) about becoming his running mate.

Last week, Mr. Kennedy endorsed Mr. Paul to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as the Senate Minority Leader after Mr. McConnell announced he would step down from the post at the end of the year.

CNN reported early on March 13 that Mr. Kennedy’s shortlist also includes motivational speaker Tony Robbins, Discovery Channel Host Mike Rowe, and civil rights attorney Tricia Lindsay. The Washington Post included the aforementioned names plus former Republican Massachusetts senator and U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, Scott Brown.

In April 2023, Mr. Kennedy entered the Democrat presidential primary to challenge President Joe Biden for the party’s 2024 nomination. Claiming that the Democrat National Committee was “rigging the primary” to stop candidates from opposing President Biden, Mr. Kennedy said last October that he would run as an independent.

This year, Mr. Kennedy’s campaign has shifted its focus to ballot access. He currently has qualified for the ballot as an independent in New Hampshire, Utah, and Nevada.

Mr. Kennedy also qualified for the ballot in Hawaii under the “We the People” party.

In January, Mr. Kennedy’s campaign said it had filed paperwork in six states to create a political party. The move was made to get his name on the ballots with fewer voter signatures than those states require for candidates not affiliated with a party.

The “We the People” party was established in five states: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi, and North Carolina. The “Texas Independent Party” was also formed.

A statement by Mr. Kennedy’s campaign reported that filing for political party status in the six states reduced the number of signatures required for him to gain ballot access by about 330,000.

Ballot access guidelines have created a sense of urgency to name a running mate. More than 20 states require independent and third-party candidates to have a vice presidential pick before collecting and submitting signatures.

Like Mr. Kennedy, Mr. Ventura is an outspoken critic of COVID-19 vaccine mandates and safety.

Mr. Ventura, 72, gained acclaim in the 1970s and 1980s as a professional wrestler known as Jesse “the Body” Ventura. He appeared in movies and television shows before entering the Minnesota gubernatorial race as a Reform Party headliner. He was a longshot candidate but prevailed and served one term.

Former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura in Washington on Oct. 4, 2013. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

In an interview on a YouTube podcast last December, Mr. Ventura was asked if he would accept an offer to run on Mr. Kennedy’s ticket.

“I would give it serious consideration. I won’t tell you yes or no. It will depend on my personal life. Would I want to commit myself at 72 for one year of hell (campaigning) and then four years (in office)?” Mr. Ventura said with a grin.

Mr. Rodgers, who spent his entire career as a quarterback for the Green Bay Packers before joining the New York Jets last season, remains under contract with the Jets. He has not publicly commented about joining Mr. Kennedy’s ticket, but the four-time NFL MVP endorsed him earlier this year and has stumped for him on podcasts.

The 40-year-old Rodgers is still under contract with the Jets after tearing his Achilles tendon in the 2023 season opener and being sidelined the rest of the year. The Jets are owned by Woody Johnson, a prominent donor to former President Donald Trump who served as U.S. Ambassador to Britain under President Trump.

Since the COVID-19 vaccine was introduced, Mr. Rodgers has been outspoken about health issues that can result from taking the shot. He told podcaster Joe Rogan that he has lost friends and sponsorship deals because of his decision not to get vaccinated.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets talks to reporters after training camp at Atlantic Health Jets Training Center in Florham Park, N.J., on July 26, 2023. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Earlier this year, Mr. Rodgers challenged Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Dr. Anthony Fauci to a debate.

Mr. Rodgers referred to Mr. Kelce, who signed an endorsement deal with vaccine manufacturer Pfizer, as “Mr. Pfizer.”

Dr. Fauci served as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases from 1984 to 2022 and was chief medical adviser to the president from 2021 to 2022.

When Mr. Kennedy announces his running mate, it will mark another challenge met to help gain ballot access.

“In some states, the signature gathering window is not open. New York is one of those and is one of the most difficult with ballot access requirements,” Ms. Spear told The Epoch Times.

“We need our VP pick and our electors, and we have to gather 45,000 valid signatures. That means we will collect 72,000 since we have a 60 percent buffer in every state,” she added.

The window for gathering signatures in New York opens on April 16 and closes on May 28, Ms. Spear noted.

“Mississippi, North Carolina, and Oklahoma are the next three states we will most likely check off our list,” Ms. Spear added. “We are confident that Mr. Kennedy will be on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We have a strategist, petitioners, attorneys, and the overall momentum of the campaign.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 15:45

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Pharma industry reputation remains steady at a ‘new normal’ after Covid, Harris Poll finds

The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45%…

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The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45% of US respondents in 2023, according to the latest Harris Poll data. That’s exactly the same as the previous year.

Pharma’s highest point was in February 2021 — as Covid vaccines began to roll out — with a 62% positive US perception, and helping the industry land at an average 55% positive sentiment at the end of the year in Harris’ 2021 annual assessment of industries. The pharma industry’s reputation hit its most recent low at 32% in 2019, but it had hovered around 30% for more than a decade prior.

Rob Jekielek

“Pharma has sustained a lot of the gains, now basically one and half times higher than pre-Covid,” said Harris Poll managing director Rob Jekielek. “There is a question mark around how sustained it will be, but right now it feels like a new normal.”

The Harris survey spans 11 global markets and covers 13 industries. Pharma perception is even better abroad, with an average 58% of respondents notching favorable sentiments in 2023, just a slight slip from 60% in each of the two previous years.

Pharma’s solid global reputation puts it in the middle of the pack among international industries, ranking higher than government at 37% positive, insurance at 48%, financial services at 51% and health insurance at 52%. Pharma ranks just behind automotive (62%), manufacturing (63%) and consumer products (63%), although it lags behind leading industries like tech at 75% positive in the first spot, followed by grocery at 67%.

The bright spotlight on the pharma industry during Covid vaccine and drug development boosted its reputation, but Jekielek said there’s maybe an argument to be made that pharma is continuing to develop innovative drugs outside that spotlight.

“When you look at pharma reputation during Covid, you have clear sense of a very dynamic industry working very quickly and getting therapies and products to market. If you’re looking at things happening now, you could argue that pharma still probably doesn’t get enough credit for its advances, for example, in oncology treatments,” he said.

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