I am rarely dramatic, but 2022 is an exception. I believe we are in the type of bear market that we haven’t seen in a long, long time.The pandemic-driven…
I am rarely dramatic, but 2022 is an exception. I believe we are in the type of bear market that we haven't seen in a long, long time.
The pandemic-driven cyclical bear market in 2020 was a health care crisis, not a financial crisis. I wrote about it throughout the pandemic and boldly predicted in the middle of it that we remained in a secular (long-term) bull market. The 2020 bear market lasted 23 trading days. It was brutal, but it was swift.
The good news is that I very much believe that we remain in a secular bull market and we'll once again recover from this current cyclical bear market (yes, I believe it started in early January), though it likely won't be as quick as 2020. Our EarningsBeats.com members have been reminded over and over again for the past several weeks to expect exactly what we're seeing -- high volatility and cyclical bear market conditions. The whipsaws have been difficult, but we're just getting started. Many of you probably think, "well, how much lower can these stocks go?" The answer? A lot.
Holding at neckline support at 4300 on the S&P 500 and forming the right shoulder has been the "eye of the storm." It's given many a false sense of calm. When the next shoe drops, it won't be so calm. Volume will soar and retail traders will panic. Why? Because they always do.
The bad news is that this cyclical bear market won't be as quick as the 2020 version. 2020 was pure financial manipulation and no one will ever convince me otherwise. Gap downs and intraday buying on so many growth stocks. That provided great opportunities to make significant profits if you read what was happening timely and accurately. Those growth stock profit-taking days ended in 2021, with rotation away from growth stocks as inflation surged. I see inflation peaking over the next 2-3 months. The problem right now, though, isn't inflation; it's the Federal Reserve ready to ramp up interest rates to fight the ghost of inflation. By the time the Fed realizes they don't need to hike rates any further, the damage will be done and all the talk will shift to the "R" word -- recession.
Growth stocks will flourish. Just after the stock market has been pummeled and the shift towards a more accommodative Fed takes place, the next recession will be talked about over and over and over. But with inflation dropping and the potential of interest rate decreases on the horizon, growth stocks will suddenly surge. I hope you're ready. I know I will be.
We have to endure more pain first, however. This pain will help to reset sentiment, which has been ridiculously bullish the past two years. During our Market Vision 2022 event on January 8, 2022, I provided a sentiment chart that needed to be corrected. It was the CBOE equity-only put call ratio ($CPCE). The 253-day moving average, while it would seem to be a lagging indicator, actually is an extremely solid predictor of investor behavior and market performance ahead. Before we look at the 253-day moving average, let's start with a reprint of a CPCE chart that I provided here in ChartWatchers a month or so ago:
This is a "short-term" reset of the CPCE ratio. After the huge rally in the S&P 500 throughout 2013 and much of 2014, bullish sentiment reached a level that was simply too low. The market struggled for over a year and a half during the balance of 2014 and throughout 2015, while sentiment shifted. Once we reached a much higher 5-day moving average of the CPCE, the S&P 500 launched again. We've seen the market recently growing much more nervous as U.S. equities sell off. The rising 5-day moving average above clearly depicts the change in sentiment -- but only on a very short-term basis. This needs to continue for awhile....and it will.
We need that bearish sentiment to increase and to last awhile to carve out a meaningful bottom on the S&P 500, one where we can launch once again in this secular bull market. This is where the 253-day moving average comes into play:
The red-dotted vertical lines mark warning signs where the CPCE reaches an extreme low (very bullish sentiment) and turns higher. Note that the S&P 500 struggled mightily after that. The green-dotted vertical lines essentially gives us that "all clear" signal when the CPCE has reached an extreme high (very bearish sentiment). Once everyone believes the stock market can go nowhere but lower, that's when we'll see another big advance. You have to get rid of the sellers.
I believe this 253-day moving average has a very solid track record. I see a minimum downside target of 3800 on the S&P 500, but would not be at all surprised to see 3500 and maybe even lower. And I'm convinced the breakdown of one chart will trigger it all. On Friday, this index finished 0.20% from a breakdown. If this index breaks down with the VIX nearing 30 (Friday's intraday high was 29.71), a subsequent surge in the VIX into the 30s or even the 40s could result in an absolute meltdown in our major indices.
Are you protected?
In Monday's EB Digest article (our free newsletter), I will share the chart and the bearish pattern that is on the verge of triggering. When its support is lost, I see another 500 points being shaved off the S&P 500 quickly. If you'd like to see this chart, you can CLICK HERE to subscribe to our newsletter. Again, it's free with no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.
On Monday, February 21st (Presidents Day - Market Closed), I will announce the 10-equal weighted stocks that will be included in each of our portfolios. Below is a performance summary of several benchmarks, key growth and value indices, popular growth ETFs and our flagship Model Portfolio:
For more information on the event and how to reserve your seat, follow this LINK.
BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals.
Credit: Impact Journals
BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals.
Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”
Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Agingteam.
About Aging-US:
Agingpublishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.
Agingis indexed and archived byPubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed Central, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).
Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com and connect with us:
Mathematicians use AI to identify emerging COVID-19 variants
Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants…
Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants and could help with other infections in the future.
Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants and could help with other infections in the future.
The framework combines dimension reduction techniques and a new explainable clustering algorithm called CLASSIX, developed by mathematicians at The University of Manchester. This enables the quick identification of groups of viral genomes that might present a risk in the future from huge volumes of data.
The study, presented this week in the journal PNAS, could support traditional methods of tracking viral evolution, such as phylogenetic analysis, which currently require extensive manual curation.
Roberto Cahuantzi, a researcher at The University of Manchester and first and corresponding author of the paper, said: “Since the emergence of COVID-19, we have seen multiple waves of new variants, heightened transmissibility, evasion of immune responses, and increased severity of illness.
“Scientists are now intensifying efforts to pinpoint these worrying new variants, such as alpha, delta and omicron, at the earliest stages of their emergence. If we can find a way to do this quickly and efficiently, it will enable us to be more proactive in our response, such as tailored vaccine development and may even enable us to eliminate the variants before they become established.”
Like many other RNA viruses, COVID-19 has a high mutation rate and short time between generations meaning it evolves extremely rapidly. This means identifying new strains that are likely to be problematic in the future requires considerable effort.
Currently, there are almost 16 million sequences available on the GISAID database (the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data), which provides access to genomic data of influenza viruses.
Mapping the evolution and history of all COVID-19 genomes from this data is currently done using extremely large amounts of computer and human time.
The described method allows automation of such tasks. The researchers processed 5.7 million high-coverage sequences in only one to two days on a standard modern laptop; this would not be possible for existing methods, putting identification of concerning pathogen strains in the hands of more researchers due to reduced resource needs.
Thomas House, Professor of Mathematical Sciences at The University of Manchester, said: “The unprecedented amount of genetic data generated during the pandemic demands improvements to our methods to analyse it thoroughly. The data is continuing to grow rapidly but without showing a benefit to curating this data, there is a risk that it will be removed or deleted.
“We know that human expert time is limited, so our approach should not replace the work of humans all together but work alongside them to enable the job to be done much quicker and free our experts for other vital developments.”
The proposed method works by breaking down genetic sequences of the COVID-19 virus into smaller “words” (called 3-mers) represented as numbers by counting them. Then, it groups similar sequences together based on their word patterns using machine learning techniques.
Stefan Güttel, Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Manchester, said: “The clustering algorithm CLASSIX we developed is much less computationally demanding than traditional methods and is fully explainable, meaning that it provides textual and visual explanations of the computed clusters.”
Roberto Cahuantzi added: “Our analysis serves as a proof of concept, demonstrating the potential use of machine learning methods as an alert tool for the early discovery of emerging major variants without relying on the need to generate phylogenies.
“Whilst phylogenetics remains the ‘gold standard’ for understanding the viral ancestry, these machine learning methods can accommodate several orders of magnitude more sequences than the current phylogenetic methods and at a low computational cost.”
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2317284121
Article Title
Unsupervised identification of significant lineages of SARS-CoV-2 through scalable machine learning methods
While the size of the United States makes it hard for it to compete with the inter-city train access available in places like Japan and many European countries, Amtrak trains are a very popular transportation option in certain pockets of the country — so much so that the country’s national railway company is expanding its Northeast Corridor by more than one million seats.
Running from Boston all the way south to Washington, D.C., the route is one of the most popular as it passes through the most densely populated part of the country and serves as a commuter train for those who need to go between East Coast cities such as New York and Philadelphia for business.
Veronika Bondarenko captured this photo of New York’s Moynihan Train Hall.
Veronika Bondarenko
Amtrak launches new routes, promises travelers ‘additional travel options’
Earlier this month, Amtrak announced that it was adding four additional Northeastern routes to its schedule — two more routes between New York’s Penn Station and Union Station in Washington, D.C. on the weekend, a new early-morning weekday route between New York and Philadelphia’s William H. Gray III 30th Street Station and a weekend route between Philadelphia and Boston’s South Station.
According to Amtrak, these additions will increase Northeast Corridor’s service by 20% on the weekdays and 10% on the weekends for a total of one million additional seats when counted by how many will ride the corridor over the year.
“More people are taking the train than ever before and we’re proud to offer our customers additional travel options when they ride with us on the Northeast Regional,” Amtrak Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Eliot Hamlisch said in a statement on the new routes. “The Northeast Regional gets you where you want to go comfortably, conveniently and sustainably as you breeze past traffic on I-95 for a more enjoyable travel experience.”
Here are some of the other Amtrak changes you can expect to see
Amtrak also said that, in the 2023 financial year, the Northeast Corridor had nearly 9.2 million riders — 8% more than it had pre-pandemic and a 29% increase from 2022. The higher demand, particularly during both off-peak hours and the time when many business travelers use to get to work, is pushing Amtrak to invest into this corridor in particular.
To reach more customers, Amtrak has also made several changes to both its routes and pricing system. In the fall of 2023, it introduced a type of new “Night Owl Fare” — if traveling during very late or very early hours, one can go between cities like New York and Philadelphia or Philadelphia and Washington. D.C. for $5 to $15.
As travel on the same routes during peak hours can reach as much as $300, this was a deliberate move to reach those who have the flexibility of time and might have otherwise preferred more affordable methods of transportation such as the bus. After seeing strong uptake, Amtrak added this type of fare to more Boston routes.
The largest distances, such as the ones between Boston and New York or New York and Washington, are available at the lowest rate for $20.
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