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AMC Stock Forecast and Company Review

As you’ll see with this AMC stock forecast, there are many trends to factor in. The movie theater industry has attracted some new investors.
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If there was ever an industry that has its back up against the wall, it’s the movie theater industry. As you’ll see with this AMC stock forecast, there are many trends to factor in. And to start, let’s rewind a few decades…

In the late 2000s, Netflix introduced movie streaming and essentially put the video rental business (Blockbuster) out of business overnight. For any younger readers, Blockbuster was a store that you had to visit if you wanted to rent a movie. In those days, movies came in the form of cassette tapes that you had to put into a small machine called a VCR.*

While streaming hasn’t quite wiped out movie theaters yet, it has definitely put them on life support. Attendance at movie theaters has been declining for years, even before the pandemic made it illegal to sit in a theater. In 2013, movie theater attendance peaked at 1.34 billion admissions and has fallen 7% to 1.24 billion in 2019. Also, prices for movie tickets and popcorn have always been laughably over the top.

AMC’s stock has also been in decline over the past decade and there are plenty of people who are expecting them to go bankrupt any year. However, there’s also quite a large community of people who are not ready to quit on AMC stock.

So, is AMC stock at the end of a decade’s long decline that will end in bankruptcy? Or does it have some tricks up its sleeve to turn the tides back in its favor?

Let’s take a look at an AMC stock forecast and find out…

*If you want some comedy, The Last Blockbuster is a great Twitter account to follow.

Note: I’m not a financial advisor and am just offering my own research and commentary. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

AMC Stock Forecast  (NYSE: AMC)

Note: AMC is expected to report earnings on November 1, 2021

It wouldn’t be right to give an AMC stock forecast without first talking about the Reddit group WallStreetBets. In the first two or three months of 2021, members of a stock and options trading group on Reddit (named WallStreetBets) identified a few potential stocks that were heavily shorted. These stocks then became the target of a short squeeze.

If you’re not familiar, shorting a stock is a risky strategy where one investor borrows shares of stock and immediately sells them in hopes that the price will go down. If the price goes down, he can buy the shares back at a lower price and profit from the price change. However, if the price goes up then he’s in trouble because he still owes shares of stock to the person that he borrowed them from. This means that he’ll have to buy the shares at a higher price and take a loss. The higher the stock price goes, the more money he loses.

A short squeeze occurs when other investors realize what the short seller is doing. They attempt to buy many of the remaining shares. If they can buy all of the remaining shares of stock then the short seller will theoretically be forced to pay whatever price the investors want (since the short seller is still on the hook to return the borrowed shares of stock).

It’s a little confusing, so here’s a quick analogy to describe how a short squeeze works using apes and bananas.

Anyway, a short squeeze occurred in early 2021 which caused AMC’s (and GameStop’s) stock to skyrocket out of their decade-long downward spiral. AMC’s stock jumped over 500% from $2 per share to over $10 per share during the month of January. It jumped another 500% from $10 to $50 from May to June.

It’s important to understand that these price increases were largely the result of Reddit traders targeting short sellers, not the result of fundamental changes in AMC’s business. Since the squeeze, AMC stock price has still been incredibly volatile and currently sits around $40.

If you’re interested in stocks with more reasonable prices relative to fundamentals, check out these top consumer staple stocks and agriculture stocks. These opportunities pay steady streams of dividends. But back to AMC…

So, what does AMC stock forecast look like from here?

AMC Price Prediction

Despite the stock price increase, nothing has really changed for AMC. It lost an impressive $4.59 billion in 2020 and also has more than $10 billion worth of debt on its balance sheet. For a short period, it looked like the pandemic would be the final nail in its coffin. However, it was able to weather the storm and now is hopefully looking at brighter skies ahead.

So far in 2021, it has seen revenues increase and posted Q1 revenue of $148 million and Q2 revenue of $444 million. Despite these increases in revenue, it still posted a loss in both quarters.

It’s worth noting that most analysts have set a price target of about $4-5 for AMC stock. If you’re a follower of price targets then it’s easy to see that most analysts agree that AMC’s stock is incredibly overvalued.

However, AMC also took advantage of its Reddit-fueled stock success to issue plenty of new shares of stock and raise money. It recently added more than 100 million new shares of stock and CEO Adam Aron has stated that it now has enough money to make it through 2022.

AMC stock was down 70% in 2020 but is up 28% over the past five years, mainly due to the Reddit-induced short squeeze.

AMC Entertainment Stock Forecast Looking Forward

What makes AMC stock so unique is that 80% of AMC’s stock is held by retail investors. In the United States, institutional investors like hedge funds and college endowments almost always own the bulk of shares in corporations. This is important because it’s the majority shareholders who will vote on important company decisions.

CEO Adam Aron has also shown that he’s very receptive to the wishes of retail traders and stated “[Retail investors] own AMC. We work for them. I work for them.” He’s also made a point to start tweeting out major company announcements since that’s the best way to reach shareholders.

To look at a dim AMC entertainment stock forecast, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the Meme stock mania slowly loses steam. As more earnings reports come out with massive losses, retail traders could start to lose faith and sell off their positions. The mania ends completely, AMC doesn’t meet its debt obligations, and the stock continues its downward trend.

On the other hand, 80% of the company’s stockholders are fiercely loyal to the company. A quick scroll through WallStreetBets offers plenty of evidence that they’re prepared to hold the stock through thick and thin. A rosy AMC stock forecast would be that these shareholders refuse to sell no matter how bad the news gets. If there’s never any selling then there’s technically no reason why the stock would go down in price. AMC could buy themselves more time to boost attendance and eventually right the ship.

AMC has also announced that it’ll start accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and potentially even Dogecoin by the end of 2021. While it’s hard to imagine how this will have a major short-term positive impact on its stock, it shows that AMC is interested in innovating its business.

In the short term, AMC’s stock price will likely continue being incredibly volatile as short sellers and retail investors play tug of war. For a stock like AMC, a long-term prediction only goes so far as 2022 which is when its fresh surge of cash will run out. True, it’s not a whole lot of time to right the ship but, as 2021 has shown, stranger things have happened.

I hope that you’ve found this AMC stock forecast to be valuable in determining whether AMC is a good stock to buy! As usual, all investment decisions should be based on your own due diligence and risk tolerance.

If you’re looking for even better investing opportunities, sign up for Wealthy Retirement. It’s a free e-letter that’s packed with investing tips and tricks. You’ll hear from investing experts on some of the best investment opportunities today.

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Key shipping company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

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The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Key shipping company files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

Published

on

The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Tight inventory and frustrated buyers challenge agents in Virginia

With inventory a little more than half of what it was pre-pandemic, agents are struggling to find homes for clients in Virginia.

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No matter where you are in the state, real estate agents in Virginia are facing low inventory conditions that are creating frustrating scenarios for their buyers.

“I think people are getting used to the interest rates where they are now, but there is just a huge lack of inventory,” said Chelsea Newcomb, a RE/MAX Realty Specialists agent based in Charlottesville. “I have buyers that are looking, but to find a house that you love enough to pay a high price for — and to be at over a 6.5% interest rate — it’s just a little bit harder to find something.”

Newcomb said that interest rates and higher prices, which have risen by more than $100,000 since March 2020, according to data from Altos Research, have caused her clients to be pickier when selecting a home.

“When rates and prices were lower, people were more willing to compromise,” Newcomb said.

Out in Wise, Virginia, near the westernmost tip of the state, RE/MAX Cavaliers agent Brett Tiller and his clients are also struggling to find suitable properties.

“The thing that really stands out, especially compared to two years ago, is the lack of quality listings,” Tiller said. “The slightly more upscale single-family listings for move-up buyers with children looking for their forever home just aren’t coming on the market right now, and demand is still very high.”

Statewide, Virginia had a 90-day average of 8,068 active single-family listings as of March 8, 2024, down from 14,471 single-family listings in early March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Altos Research. That represents a decrease of 44%.

Virginia-Inventory-Line-Chart-Virginia-90-day-Single-Family

In Newcomb’s base metro area of Charlottesville, there were an average of only 277 active single-family listings during the same recent 90-day period, compared to 892 at the onset of the pandemic. In Wise County, there were only 56 listings.

Due to the demand from move-up buyers in Tiller’s area, the average days on market for homes with a median price of roughly $190,000 was just 17 days as of early March 2024.

“For the right home, which is rare to find right now, we are still seeing multiple offers,” Tiller said. “The demand is the same right now as it was during the heart of the pandemic.”

According to Tiller, the tight inventory has caused homebuyers to spend up to six months searching for their new property, roughly double the time it took prior to the pandemic.

For Matt Salway in the Virginia Beach metro area, the tight inventory conditions are creating a rather hot market.

“Depending on where you are in the area, your listing could have 15 offers in two days,” the agent for Iron Valley Real Estate Hampton Roads | Virginia Beach said. “It has been crazy competition for most of Virginia Beach, and Norfolk is pretty hot too, especially for anything under $400,000.”

According to Altos Research, the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News housing market had a seven-day average Market Action Index score of 52.44 as of March 14, making it the seventh hottest housing market in the country. Altos considers any Market Action Index score above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market.

Virginia-Beach-Metro-Area-Market-Action-Index-Line-Chart-Virginia-Beach-Norfolk-Newport-News-VA-NC-90-day-Single-Family

Further up the coastline on the vacation destination of Chincoteague Island, Long & Foster agent Meghan O. Clarkson is also seeing a decent amount of competition despite higher prices and interest rates.

“People are taking their time to actually come see things now instead of buying site unseen, and occasionally we see some seller concessions, but the traffic and the demand is still there; you might just work a little longer with people because we don’t have anything for sale,” Clarkson said.

“I’m busy and constantly have appointments, but the underlying frenzy from the height of the pandemic has gone away, but I think it is because we have just gotten used to it.”

While much of the demand that Clarkson’s market faces is for vacation homes and from retirees looking for a scenic spot to retire, a large portion of the demand in Salway’s market comes from military personnel and civilians working under government contracts.

“We have over a dozen military bases here, plus a bunch of shipyards, so the closer you get to all of those bases, the easier it is to sell a home and the faster the sale happens,” Salway said.

Due to this, Salway said that existing-home inventory typically does not come on the market unless an employment contract ends or the owner is reassigned to a different base, which is currently contributing to the tight inventory situation in his market.

Things are a bit different for Tiller and Newcomb, who are seeing a decent number of buyers from other, more expensive parts of the state.

“One of the crazy things about Louisa and Goochland, which are kind of like suburbs on the western side of Richmond, is that they are growing like crazy,” Newcomb said. “A lot of people are coming in from Northern Virginia because they can work remotely now.”

With a Market Action Index score of 50, it is easy to see why people are leaving the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria market for the Charlottesville market, which has an index score of 41.

In addition, the 90-day average median list price in Charlottesville is $585,000 compared to $729,900 in the D.C. area, which Newcomb said is also luring many Virginia homebuyers to move further south.

Median-Price-D.C.-vs.-Charlottesville-Line-Chart-90-day-Single-Family

“They are very accustomed to higher prices, so they are super impressed with the prices we offer here in the central Virginia area,” Newcomb said.

For local buyers, Newcomb said this means they are frequently being outbid or outpriced.

“A couple who is local to the area and has been here their whole life, they are just now starting to get their mind wrapped around the fact that you can’t get a house for $200,000 anymore,” Newcomb said.

As the year heads closer to spring, triggering the start of the prime homebuying season, agents in Virginia feel optimistic about the market.

“We are seeing seasonal trends like we did up through 2019,” Clarkson said. “The market kind of soft launched around President’s Day and it is still building, but I expect it to pick right back up and be in full swing by Easter like it always used to.”

But while they are confident in demand, questions still remain about whether there will be enough inventory to support even more homebuyers entering the market.

“I have a lot of buyers starting to come off the sidelines, but in my office, I also have a lot of people who are going to list their house in the next two to three weeks now that the weather is starting to break,” Newcomb said. “I think we are going to have a good spring and summer.”

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