The collective wisdom of the bond market for much of this year has been betting that interest rates would soon peak and fall. But those bets appear to be unwinding in the wake of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting and press conference.

Exhibit A is the rise in the 2- and 10-year Treasury yields, which are widely followed as key maturities for economic and financial markets analytics. On those fronts the crowd is reassessing its recent view that rate cuts are on the near-term horizon.

Let’s start with the 2-year Treasury yield, which is considered a proxy for market expectations on Fed policy. For much of this year the 2-year yield has traded below the effective Fed funds rate, which implies that the market expects the central bank’s rate hike will peak and perhaps reverse. But that view appears to be fading as the 2-year yield moves closer to the current 5.25%-to-5.50% Fed funds rate range.

The 10-year yield is pushing higher again too. In yesterday’s trading (Sep. 21), the benchmark rate rose to 4.49%, the highest since 2007.

Inflation-indexed Treasury yields continue to push higher too, testing the 2%-plus real range.

One of the catalysts that’s reportedly behind the latest run of higher Treasury yields is Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments on Wednesday on the matter of real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates.

“It’s a real rate that will matter and that needs to be sufficiently restrictive,” he advised, although exactly what level defines “restrictive” was left unsaid. “I would say you know it’s sufficiently restrictive only when you see it,” he added. “It’s not something you can arrive at with confidence in a model or in various estimates.”

By some accounts, the Fed appears to be on a path to leave rates higher for longer. Fed rate hikes may be over, or perhaps there’s one more in the pipeline, but rate cuts are expected to come later than recently expected.

As The Wall Street Journal reports:

“The fact that we’ve come this far lets us really proceed carefully,” said Powell. He used those words—“proceed carefully”—six times during Wednesday’s news conference, a sign of heightened caution about lifting rates.

“He didn’t sound to me like he was itching to hike again,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, who thinks the Fed’s July rate rise will be its last for the current cycle. “For Powell, he sounds like he’s pretty comfortable where they are, sitting back, and watching things play out,” Feroli said.

The new dot plots for the Fed – the FOMC participants expectations for the Fed funds rate – supports the case for a higher for longer outlook. The FT notes:

The median estimate of the Fed’s 19 policymakers is for the bank’s benchmark rate to fall to just 5 per cent to 5.25 per cent next year. That was significantly higher than the 4.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent they signaled when the dot plot was last updated in June. By 2026, it was still forecast to be between 2.75 per cent and 3 per cent.

“What they’re saying there is if you have stronger growth for this year and next, it increases the risk that core inflation does not descend as much as they hope and expect,” said Daleep Singh, an ex-New York Fed official who is now chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income.

“Therefore there is a potential need to keep nominal interest rates somewhat higher than they previously forecast,” he added.

The good news for investors is that the highest yields in ~15 years, either real or nominal, can be locked in with a buy-and-hold strategy. No one knows if current rates are at or near a peak, but this much is clear: the case for a relatively higher allocation to Treasuries vs. recent history hasn’t looked this compelling since George W. Bush was walking the floor in the Oval Office.

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The report highlighted that Bitcoin mining can convert wasted methane emissions into less harmful emissions.

A paper published by the Institute of Risk Management (IRM) concluded that Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to be a catalyst for a global energy transition. 

IRM Energy and Renewables Group members Dylan Campbell and Alexander Larsen published a report titled “Bitcoin and the Energy Transition: From Risk to Opportunity.” The paper argued that while BTC was perceived as a risk because of its energy consumption, it can also catalyze energy transition and lead to new solutions for energy challenges worldwide.

Within the report, the authors also highlighted the important function of energy and the increasing need for reliable, clean and more affordable energy sources. Despite the criticisms of Bitcoin’s energy intensity, the study provided a more balanced view of Bitcoin by showing the potential benefits BTC can bring to the energy industry.

According to the report, Bitcoin mining can reduce global emissions by up to 8% by 2030. This can be done by converting the world’s wasted methane emissions into less harmful emissions. The report cited a theoretical case saying that using captured methane to power Bitcoin mining operations can reduce the amount of methane vented into the atmosphere. 

Related: Bitcoin energy pivot achieves what ‘few industries can claim’ — Bloomberg analyst

The paper also presented other opportunities for Bitcoin to contribute to the energy sector. According to the report, Bitcoin can contribute to energy efficiency through electricity grid management by using Bitcoin miners and transferring heat from miners to greenhouses.

“We have shown that while Bitcoin is a consumer of electricity, this does not translate to it being a high emitter of carbon dioxide and other atmospheric pollutants. Bitcoin can be the catalyst to a cleaner, more energy-abundant future for all,” the authors wrote.

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• UK retail sales improve, PMIs remain in contraction

The British pound is in negative territory after two days of losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2245, down 0.40%. The struggling pound is down 1.1% this week and is trading at its lowest levels since late March.

UK retail sales improve, PMIs mixed

It is a busy day on the data calendar for UK releases. Retail sales rose in August by 0.4% m/m, following a 1.1% decline in July and was just shy of the market consensus of 0.5%. The sharp decline in July was largely due to unusually wet weather. On an annual basis, retail sales fell by 1.4%, compared to -3.1% in July. Consumer spending has been in a nasty rut, as annualized retail sales have now declined for 17 straight months. The silver lining was that the -1.4% drop marked the slowest pace of contraction in the current streak.

The September PMIs were a mixed bag. The Services PMI slowed to 47.2 in September, down from 49.5 in August and missing the consensus estimate of 49.2. This marked a second straight deceleration and the sharpest contraction since January 2021. The Manufacturing PMI increased to 44.2 in September, up from 43.0 in August and above the consensus estimate of 43.0.

The decline in activity in both services and manufacturing points to a UK economy that continues to cool. The Bank of England, which held interest rates on Thursday, will be hoping that the slowdown translates into lower inflation and that it can continue to hold interest rates.

UK consumer confidence remains low, but there was a bit of an improvement in September. The GfK consumer confidence index rose to -21, up from -25 in August and beating the consensus estimate of -27. This was the highest reading since January 2022, but the economy has a long way to go before consumers show optimism about the economic outlook.

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GBP/USD Technical

• GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2267. The next support level is 1.2156
• There is resistance at 1.2325 and 1.2436

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