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Week Ahead: Rising Treasury Yields will make this an interesting FOMC decision

The bond market seems determined to make this an interesting FOMC policy decision.  Treasury yields have been surging after the Biden administration passed the $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill and set a May 1st goal of getting vaccines to all adults. …

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The bond market seems determined to make this an interesting FOMC policy decision.  Treasury yields have been surging after the Biden administration passed the $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill and set a May 1st goal of getting vaccines to all adults.  The Fed welcomes a steeper yield curve, but the current trajectory could be disruptive the economic recovery.  Market participants want to know how quickly do yields need to rise to raise concerns of tighter conditions or trigger disorderly markets?  The taper tantrum might get priced in a lot sooner by Wall Street, but the Fed will patiently wait until economic indicators confirm the recovery remains much later in the year.

What will Powell do?

Is China’s recovery on solid footing?

Will a Turkey rate hike anger President Erdogan?

Country

US

The main event of the trading week will be the FOMC policy meeting.  The US economic recovery is starting to heat up and inflation concerns are percolating.  Fed watchers for the March 16-17 meeting will likely hear similar comments regarding short-term risks to the outlook and concerns over tighter financial conditions and disorderly markets.  Any upbeat comments on the outlook will likely bring forward rate-hike expectations.

The biggest risk to US stocks remains fears of the taper tantrum and investors will try to get in front of that momentous occasion.  In 2013, Fed Chair Bernanke sent financial markets into disarray when he said the Fed’s bank’s asset purchase programs will “wind down” as the economic outlook improves.

Wall Street will closely watch the release of US retail sales.  Last month, stimulus checks helped consumers spend heavily.  The latest retail sales report will show spending cooled in February.  If spending remains robust, that could be the catalyst that sends Treasury yields higher.

Bond watcher will also focus on the 20-year bond auction on Tuesday.  Anemic demand could be a catalyst that sends Treasury yields much higher.

EU

This week’s ECB policy meeting on Thursday was noteworthy as the central bank signaled it would accelerate the pace of QE buying to cap yields.  ECB President Lagarde said the decision was made since “headline inflation is likely to increase in the coming months. This position is in stark contrast to the Federal Reserve, which is not concerned about higher yields or inflation.

The rate statement did not indicate any major changes in PEPP purchases, a sign that policymakers believe that economic conditions will return to normal by next March. The ECB announcement had an immediate effect on bond yields, with Germany’s 10-year government bond yield initially falling 2.5 basis points to -0.341%. The euro moved lower after the ECB meeting but then recovered its losses and ended the day unchanged.

The eurozone’s vaccine rollout in the eurozone has been beset by delivery problems, as the program is far behind those of the UK or the US. The latest snag is that the EU has relied on the AstraZeneca vaccine, but reports of serious side effects such as blood clots have prompted Denmark, Norway and Iceland to suspend AstraZeneca shots. This could slow down the EU vaccine campaign and the negative headlines could result in more people deciding not to get vaccinated.

Inflation in the eurozone has been on the rise. In January, headline CPI came in at 0.9% and core CPI at 1.1%. These figures will likely be confirmed in the final releases on Wednesday.

On Sunday, voters go to the polls in two German states, Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. On Wednesday, the Netherlands holds parliamentary elections, with the results to determine the new government.

UK

The Bank of England holds its policy meeting on Thursday, and the Official Bank Rate is expected to remain pegged at 0.10%. The bank will likely maintain its asset purchase program at GBP 895 billion, but refrain from being too optimistic and focus on the risks to the outlook.  The BoE wants flexibility with the bond-buying program, as the UK is grappling with its worst economic slump in 300 years.

Turkey

A strong US dollar has caused sharp losses for EM currencies, such as the Turkish lira. Turkey’s central bank is expected to raise rates in order to boost the Turkish lira. Analysts expect a hike between 50-bps and -100 bps at the March 18 meeting.  President Erdogan wants more support for the economy and will not be happy with a rate hike.  If Turkey sees lack of stability with who is running the central bank, that could trigger further pain for the lira.

Norway

Higher oil prices led to a sharp increase in inflation in Norway, a major oil producer. Core CPI held well above the central bank’s target of around 2 per cent. The jump in inflation in the past year could raise wage demands and add to the reasons that Norges Bank will raise rates, which currently stand at 0.25%, later in the year. The bank is likely to raise rate its hike forecasts.

China

State-backed investment funds’ intervention in the stock market, notably CSI 300 components, to support prices has been the main focus this week. The action by Chinese authorities highlighting their nervousness about the pace of the recent sell-off. The actions put an implicit floor under equity markets on the Mainland. If authorities step away if markets fall in the coming week for some reason, the scope of any moves lower could increase by much more than they should.

China’s NPC has all but eliminated freely elected governments going forward in Hong Kong this week. Not unexpected or market moving in itself, as, for now, the judiciary and the bedrock of Hong Kong’s commercial system remains independent. Moves on this front could provoke short-term exit flows from Hong Kong equities.

China’s Industrial Production, Retail Sales should show an improvement on Monday and will likely lift Mainland equities in the first part of the week,

Hong Kong launches the first stage of an expanded Hang Seng Index on Monday. That should be well received by markets and Hong Kong stocks could enjoy a strongly positive day.

Wednesday’s US FOMC will dictate market direction for the second half of the week.

India

India’s official inflation rate has moved back above 5.0% this evening with Industrial Production for January disappointing as it falls by 1.60%, a very large miss. That puts India back in a stagflationary corner. Monday’s WPI Inflation and Manufacturing, and the Balance of Payments are likely to confirm the negative story, with the rising price of oil in February expected to make its presence heavily felt, in a negative way.

The INR has proven invulnerable to US Dollar strength recently as markets priced the worst being over for India. Tonight and Monday’s data will quash those jhopes, leaving both the INR and Indian equity markets vulnerable next week. If the US bond tantrum returns with a vengeance, the sell-off locally will accelerate, India being one of the most vulnerable countries to rising US yields and commodity prices due to its weak current account and foreign currency denominated debt.

Australia & New Zealand

The Biden-stimulus peace dividend has vanished as quickly as it began with US yields spiking as the week ends. That has pushed both AUD/USD and NZD/USD lower, both having an acute negative correlation to US Dollar strength and higher US yields. Both currencies staged multi-month downside breakouts this week, and have retraced and failed ahead of those lines. AUD/USD and NZD/USD could each fall by 250+ points in the coming week if the US bond tantrum returns in strength.

Australia releases NAB Business and Westpac Consumer Confidence with RBA Governor Lowe speaking on Wednesday. Depending on how the US bond situation evolves, and given the recent intervention by the RBA to cap yield increases, his speech will be potentially market-moving. Expect dove feathers to fly.

Both the currencies and the stock markets of Australia and New Zealand will be at the mercy of the FOMC dot plot released early Thursday Asia time. If the taper is indicated as being closer, both currencies and equities will suffer.

Japan

Huge data week for Japan featuring Machinery Orders, Industrial Production, Inflation and the Tankan Survey. However all eyes will be on the Bank of Japan meeting on Friday. (conveniently after the FOMC) Markets will be looking for a clearer definition of the BOJ’s upper tolerance for JGB yields. If they go down their usual vacillation path, markets may well push JGB yields higher which could overflow into weaker equities.

USD/JPY continues to be at the mercy of US/Japan bond yield differentials. The technical picture suggests USD/JPY can rise to 112.00, but watch yield differentials for short-term direction. This afternoon’s price action (Friday) being a classic case in point.

Markets

Oil

Crude prices could be in for a consolidation period now that the demand outlook in Europe and Asia looks patchy.  The crude demand outlook is taking a hit from a mixed outlook in Western Europe and as India’s oil demand plummeted to the lowest levels since August.  The decline in oil prices is somewhat limited as expectations grow for Americans to deliver a much better-than-expected demand for crude this summer.  Biden’s goal of July 4th to get America “closer to normal” is a gamechanger for fuel demand forecasts.  Car bookings and plane tickets are indicating Americans are going to travel big this summer and that should help bring back fuel demand.

Brent crude will remain stuck around the $69 level until the oil demand outlook improves in Europe, which will only happen when they stop struggling with COVID-19 variants.  The US is still not in the clear over virus variant risks, but it seems that any setback would only be temporary now that much of the country is close to getting vaccinated.  Rising rig counts could provide some profit-taking in crude, but the outlook still remains very bullish over the medium-and long-term.

Gold

Gold trading will remain volatile and likely highly correlated the bond market.  Many traders anticipated a calm period for gold ahead of the FOMC policy decision after surviving three key Treasury auctions (3s, 10s and 30s) with decent demand.  It appears gold investors want to see a push back from the Fed over the move in Treasury yields.  If the Fed doesn’t signal anything and Treasury yields soar, gold could plummet $100.

Gold could eventually long-term investors now that gold ETF selling is slowing down and as inflation concerns will grow once Europe stops struggling with COVID variants.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin mania has been wild in March and many of the crypto skeptics are abandoning their bearish calls.  Institutional and retail interest remains healthy and if risk appetite remains intact, cryptocurrencies could continue to rally.  Regulatory fears have faded into the background, but by no means are they gone.  Central banks are continuing their evaluations for digital currencies and eventually stricter measures could damage the relentless rally with Bitcoin.

Key Economic Events

Sunday, March 14

– Daylight saving time occurs for most of North America

-The German states of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate hold elections.

Monday, March 15

– The World Health Organization expected to release a report on the origins of the COVID-19 this week.

– ECB’s Centeno speaks at a conference organized by the European Investment Bank

– OECD will announce its new chief.

Economic Data:

  • US net TIC flows, Empire manufacturing
  • China industrial production, retail sales
  • Canada manufacturing sales, housing starts
  • Czech Retail sales
  • India trade, wholesale prices
  • Indonesia trade
  • UK Rightmove house prices
  • Japan tertiary index, core machinery orders
  • Poland CPI
  • Israel CPI
  • Finland CPI
  • Sweden CPI

Tuesday, March 16

– US Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Austin attend the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee meeting

– Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue starts. Speakers include EC President von der Leyen, U.S. climate envoy Kerry, and German Economy Minister Altmaier.

– Swedish parliament finance committee holds an open hearing on current monetary policy with Riksbank Governor Ingves and Deputy Governor Ohlsson.

Economic Data:

  • US Mar Advance Retail sales M/M: -0.3% estimate v 5.3% prior, industrial production
  • US to sell $24 billion in 20-year bonds
  • Hong Kong unemployment
  • Japan industrial production
  • CPI: France, Italy
  • Poland current account, trade balance
  • Australia RBA minutes of March policy meeting
  • Germany March ZEW survey expectations: 75.0 estimate v 71.2 prior
  • Russia industrial production
  • South Africa BER consumer confidence

Wednesday, March 17

– Fed Chair Powell will likely reaffirm his ultra-dovish stance at the Fed policy meeting. Tame inflation and calm in the bond market should make Powell’s job easier to deflect questions on pushing back on market forces.

– US Cabinet Secretaries Blinken and Austin make first overseas trip to Japan, South Korea

– The Netherlands have a general election for the 150-seat lower house of parliament. Prime Minister Rutte is expected to remain in power.  His VVD liberals party will still need partners to form a coalition cabinet.

– EU Commission unveils its proposal for vaccine passports

– International Energy Agency releases monthly Oil Market Report

– US House committee hearing on retail trading and short-selling

– EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report

Economic Data:

  • US FOMC Decision, housing starts, building permits
  • Canada CPI
  • Eurozone CPI
  • Singapore Trade
  • Spain Trade
  • Japan Trade
  • South Africa retail sales
  • Australia Westpac leading index
  • Poland average gross wages, employment
  • Russia PPI

Thursday, March 18

– US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National security adviser Sullivan, will meet with China’s most senior foreign policy official, Yang Jiechi, and foreign minister Wang Yi

– ECB Vice President de Guindos speaks at conference on the EU’s bank crisis management and deposit insurance framework.

– Executive Board member Schnabel speaks at a Rotary Club event.

– BOE Deputy Governor Cunliffe delivers opening remarks at the BIS Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures.

– Chief Economist Haldane speaks at the Women in Finance awards.

– Riksbank Deputy Governor Floden participates on a finance panel arranged by SNS and SHoF.

Economic Data/Events:

  • UK BOE Interest Rate Decision: Expected to keep policy unchanged, possibly providing signs it will slow bond-buying this summer
  • New Zealand Q4 GDP Q/Q: -0.1% estimate v 14.0% prior
  • Italy Trade
  • US initial jobless claims, leading index
  • Australia Unemployment
  • Sweden Unemployment
  • Norway Norges Rate decision: Expected to keep Deposit Rates unchanged at 0.00%; focus on rate hike forecasts
  • Turkey CBRT Rate Decision: Expected to raise One-Week Repo Rate 100 bps to 18.00%
  • Poland PPI, sold industrial output
  • Russia gold and foreign exchange reserves
  • BOJ Rate Decision: No changes expected to Policy Balance Rate or 10-year target

Friday, March 19

-The US China Economic and Security Review Commission presents its annual report to Congress

Economic Data/Event:

  • Japan BOJ Gov Press Conference
  • Australia Retail Sales
  • Canada Retail Sales
  • Poland Retail Sales
  • Russia CBR rate decision: Expected to keep Key Rate unchanged at 4.25%
  • Russia unemployment, retail sales
  • UK public sector net borrowing
  • Japan CPI

Sovereign Rating Updates:

– Poland (Fitch)

– Belgium (S&P)

– Spain (S&P)

– EU (Moody’s)

– Portugal (Moody’s)

– Greece (DBRS)

 

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Sylvester researchers, collaborators call for greater investment in bereavement care

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater…

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MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater risk for many adverse outcomes, including mental health challenges, decreased quality of life, health care neglect, cancer, heart disease, suicide, and death. Now, in a paper published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers sound a clarion call for greater investment, at both the community and institutional level, in establishing support for grief-related suffering.

Credit: Photo courtesy of Memorial Sloan Kettering Comprehensive Cancer Center

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater risk for many adverse outcomes, including mental health challenges, decreased quality of life, health care neglect, cancer, heart disease, suicide, and death. Now, in a paper published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers sound a clarion call for greater investment, at both the community and institutional level, in establishing support for grief-related suffering.

The authors emphasized that increased mortality worldwide caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, suicide, drug overdose, homicide, armed conflict, and terrorism have accelerated the urgency for national- and global-level frameworks to strengthen the provision of sustainable and accessible bereavement care. Unfortunately, current national and global investment in bereavement support services is woefully inadequate to address this growing public health crisis, said researchers with Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine and collaborating organizations.  

They proposed a model for transitional care that involves firmly establishing bereavement support services within healthcare organizations to ensure continuity of family-centered care while bolstering community-based support through development of “compassionate communities” and a grief-informed workforce. The model highlights the responsibility of the health system to build bridges to the community that can help grievers feel held as they transition.   

The Center for the Advancement of Bereavement Care at Sylvester is advocating for precisely this model of transitional care. Wendy G. Lichtenthal, PhD, FT, FAPOS, who is Founding Director of the new Center and associate professor of public health sciences at the Miller School, noted, “We need a paradigm shift in how healthcare professionals, institutions, and systems view bereavement care. Sylvester is leading the way by investing in the establishment of this Center, which is the first to focus on bringing the transitional bereavement care model to life.”

What further distinguishes the Center is its roots in bereavement science, advancing care approaches that are both grounded in research and community-engaged.  

The authors focused on palliative care, which strives to provide a holistic approach to minimize suffering for seriously ill patients and their families, as one area where improvements are critically needed. They referenced groundbreaking reports of the Lancet Commissions on the value of global access to palliative care and pain relief that highlighted the “undeniable need for improved bereavement care delivery infrastructure.” One of those reports acknowledged that bereavement has been overlooked and called for reprioritizing social determinants of death, dying, and grief.

“Palliative care should culminate with bereavement care, both in theory and in practice,” explained Lichtenthal, who is the article’s corresponding author. “Yet, bereavement care often is under-resourced and beset with access inequities.”

Transitional bereavement care model

So, how do health systems and communities prioritize bereavement services to ensure that no bereaved individual goes without needed support? The transitional bereavement care model offers a roadmap.

“We must reposition bereavement care from an afterthought to a public health priority. Transitional bereavement care is necessary to bridge the gap in offerings between healthcare organizations and community-based bereavement services,” Lichtenthal said. “Our model calls for health systems to shore up the quality and availability of their offerings, but also recognizes that resources for bereavement care within a given healthcare institution are finite, emphasizing the need to help build communities’ capacity to support grievers.”

Key to the model, she added, is the bolstering of community-based support through development of “compassionate communities” and “upskilling” of professional services to assist those with more substantial bereavement-support needs.

The model contains these pillars:

  • Preventive bereavement care –healthcare teams engage in bereavement-conscious practices, and compassionate communities are mindful of the emotional and practical needs of dying patients’ families.
  • Ownership of bereavement care – institutions provide bereavement education for staff, risk screenings for families, outreach and counseling or grief support. Communities establish bereavement centers and “champions” to provide bereavement care at workplaces, schools, places of worship or care facilities.
  • Resource allocation for bereavement care – dedicated personnel offer universal outreach, and bereaved stakeholders provide input to identify community barriers and needed resources.
  • Upskilling of support providers – Bereavement education is integrated into training programs for health professionals, and institutions offer dedicated grief specialists. Communities have trained, accessible bereavement specialists who provide support and are educated in how to best support bereaved individuals, increasing their grief literacy.
  • Evidence-based care – bereavement care is evidence-based and features effective grief assessments, interventions, and training programs. Compassionate communities remain mindful of bereavement care needs.

Lichtenthal said the new Center will strive to materialize these pillars and aims to serve as a global model for other health organizations. She hopes the paper’s recommendations “will cultivate a bereavement-conscious and grief-informed workforce as well as grief-literate, compassionate communities and health systems that prioritize bereavement as a vital part of ethical healthcare.”

“This paper is calling for healthcare institutions to respond to their duty to care for the family beyond patients’ deaths. By investing in the creation of the Center for the Advancement of Bereavement Care, Sylvester is answering this call,” Lichtenthal said.

Follow @SylvesterCancer on X for the latest news on Sylvester’s research and care.

# # #

Article Title: Investing in bereavement care as a public health priority

DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00030-6

Authors: The complete list of authors is included in the paper.

Funding: The authors received funding from the National Cancer Institute (P30 CA240139 Nimer) and P30 CA008748 Vickers).

Disclosures: The authors declared no competing interests.

# # #

Journal

The Lancet Public Health

DOI

10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00030-6

Article Title

Investing in bereavement care as a public health priority

Article Publication Date

13-Mar-2024

COI Statement

The authors declared no competing interests.

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International

Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says “Copper’s Time Is Now”

Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says "Copper’s Time Is Now"

After languishing for the past two years in a tight range despite recurring…

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Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says "Copper's Time Is Now"

After languishing for the past two years in a tight range despite recurring speculation about declining global supply, copper has finally broken out, surging to the highest price in the past year, just shy of $9,000 a ton as supply cuts hit the market; At the same time the price of the world's "other" most important mined commodity has diverged, as iron ore has tumbled amid growing demand headwinds out of China's comatose housing sector where not even ghost cities are being built any more.

Copper surged almost 5% this week, ending a months-long spell of inertia, as investors focused on risks to supply at various global mines and smelters. As Bloomberg adds, traders also warmed to the idea that the worst of a global downturn is in the past, particularly for metals like copper that are increasingly used in electric vehicles and renewables.

Yet the commodity crash of recent years is hardly over, as signs of the headwinds in traditional industrial sectors are still all too obvious in the iron ore market, where futures fell below $100 a ton for the first time in seven months on Friday as investors bet that China’s years-long property crisis will run through 2024, keeping a lid on demand.

Indeed, while the mood surrounding copper has turned almost euphoric, sentiment on iron ore has soured since the conclusion of the latest National People’s Congress in Beijing, where the CCP set a 5% goal for economic growth, but offered few new measures that would boost infrastructure or other construction-intensive sectors.

As a result, the main steelmaking ingredient has shed more than 30% since early January as hopes of a meaningful revival in construction activity faded. Loss-making steel mills are buying less ore, and stockpiles are piling up at Chinese ports. The latest drop will embolden those who believe that the effects of President Xi Jinping’s property crackdown still have significant room to run, and that last year’s rally in iron ore may have been a false dawn.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, on Friday there were fresh signs that weakness in China’s industrial economy is hitting the copper market too, with stockpiles tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange surging to the highest level since the early days of the pandemic. The hope is that headwinds in traditional industrial areas will be offset by an ongoing surge in usage in electric vehicles and renewables.

And while industrial conditions in Europe and the US also look soft, there’s growing optimism about copper usage in India, where rising investment has helped fuel blowout growth rates of more than 8% — making it the fastest-growing major economy.

In any case, with the demand side of the equation still questionable, the main catalyst behind copper’s powerful rally is an unexpected tightening in global mine supplies, driven mainly by last year’s closure of a giant mine in Panama (discussed here), but there are also growing worries about output in Zambia, which is facing an El Niño-induced power crisis.

On Wednesday, copper prices jumped on huge volumes after smelters in China held a crisis meeting on how to cope with a sharp drop in processing fees following disruptions to supplies of mined ore. The group stopped short of coordinated production cuts, but pledged to re-arrange maintenance work, reduce runs and delay the startup of new projects. In the coming weeks investors will be watching Shanghai exchange inventories closely to gauge both the strength of demand and the extent of any capacity curtailments.

“The increase in SHFE stockpiles has been bigger than we’d anticipated, but we expect to see them coming down over the next few weeks,” Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone. “If the pace of the inventory builds doesn’t start to slow, investors will start to question whether smelters are actually cutting and whether the impact of weak construction activity is starting to weigh more heavily on the market.”

* * *

Few have been as happy with the recent surge in copper prices as Goldman's commodity team, where copper has long been a preferred trade (even if it may have cost the former team head Jeff Currie his job due to his unbridled enthusiasm for copper in the past two years which saw many hedge fund clients suffer major losses).

As Goldman's Nicholas Snowdon writes in a note titled "Copper's time is now" (available to pro subscribers in the usual place)...

... there has been a "turn in the industrial cycle." Specifically according to the Goldman analyst, after a prolonged downturn, "incremental evidence now points to a bottoming out in the industrial cycle, with the global manufacturing PMI in expansion for the first time since September 2022." As a result, Goldman now expects copper to rise to $10,000/t by year-end and then $12,000/t by end of Q1-25.’

Here are the details:

Previous inflexions in global manufacturing cycles have been associated with subsequent sustained industrial metals upside, with copper and aluminium rising on average 25% and 9% over the next 12 months. Whilst seasonal surpluses have so far limited a tightening alignment at a micro level, we expect deficit inflexions to play out from quarter end, particularly for metals with severe supply binds. Supplemented by the influence of anticipated Fed easing ahead in a non-recessionary growth setting, another historically positive performance factor for metals, this should support further upside ahead with copper the headline act in this regard.

Goldman then turns to what it calls China's "green policy put":

Much of the recent focus on the “Two Sessions” event centred on the lack of significant broad stimulus, and in particular the limited property support. In our view it would be wrong – just as in 2022 and 2023 – to assume that this will result in weak onshore metals demand. Beijing’s emphasis on rapid growth in the metals intensive green economy, as an offset to property declines, continues to act as a policy put for green metals demand. After last year’s strong trends, evidence year-to-date is again supportive with aluminium and copper apparent demand rising 17% and 12% y/y respectively. Moreover, the potential for a ‘cash for clunkers’ initiative could provide meaningful right tail risk to that healthy demand base case. Yet there are also clear metal losers in this divergent policy setting, with ongoing pressure on property related steel demand generating recent sharp iron ore downside.

Meanwhile, Snowdon believes that the driver behind Goldman's long-running bullish view on copper - a global supply shock - continues:

Copper’s supply shock progresses. The metal with most significant upside potential is copper, in our view. The supply shock which began with aggressive concentrate destocking and then sharp mine supply downgrades last year, has now advanced to an increasing bind on metal production, as reflected in this week's China smelter supply rationing signal. With continued positive momentum in China's copper demand, a healthy refined import trend should generate a substantial ex-China refined deficit this year. With LME stocks having halved from Q4 peak, China’s imminent seasonal demand inflection should accelerate a path into extreme tightness by H2. Structural supply underinvestment, best reflected in peak mine supply we expect next year, implies that demand destruction will need to be the persistent solver on scarcity, an effect requiring substantially higher pricing than current, in our view. In this context, we maintain our view that the copper price will surge into next year (GSe 2025 $15,000/t average), expecting copper to rise to $10,000/t by year-end and then $12,000/t by end of Q1-25’

Another reason why Goldman is doubling down on its bullish copper outlook: gold.

The sharp rally in gold price since the beginning of March has ended the period of consolidation that had been present since late December. Whilst the initial catalyst for the break higher came from a (gold) supportive turn in US data and real rates, the move has been significantly amplified by short term systematic buying, which suggests less sticky upside. In this context, we expect gold to consolidate for now, with our economists near term view on rates and the dollar suggesting limited near-term catalysts for further upside momentum. Yet, a substantive retracement lower will also likely be limited by resilience in physical buying channels. Nonetheless, in the midterm we continue to hold a constructive view on gold underpinned by persistent strength in EM demand as well as eventual Fed easing, which should crucially reactivate the largely for now dormant ETF buying channel. In this context, we increase our average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,090/toz to $2,180/toz, targeting a move to $2,300/toz by year-end.

Much more in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 14:25

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Moderna turns the spotlight on long Covid with new initiatives

Moderna’s latest Covid effort addresses the often-overlooked chronic condition of long Covid — and encourages vaccination to reduce risks. A digital…

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Moderna’s latest Covid effort addresses the often-overlooked chronic condition of long Covid — and encourages vaccination to reduce risks. A digital campaign debuted Friday along with a co-sponsored event in Detroit offering free CT scans, which will also be used in ongoing long Covid research.

In a new video, a young woman describes her three-year battle with long Covid, which includes losing her job, coping with multiple debilitating symptoms and dealing with the negative effects on her family. She ends by saying, “The only way to prevent long Covid is to not get Covid” along with an on-screen message about where to find Covid-19 vaccines through the vaccines.gov website.

Kate Cronin

“Last season we saw people would get a flu shot, but they didn’t always get a Covid shot,” said Moderna’s Chief Brand Officer Kate Cronin. “People should get their flu shot, but they should also get their Covid shot. There’s no risk of long flu, but there is the risk of long-term effects of Covid.”

It’s Moderna’s “first effort to really sound the alarm,” she said, and the debut coincides with the second annual Long Covid Awareness Day.

An estimated 17.6 million Americans are living with long Covid, according to the latest CDC data. About four million of them are out of work because of the condition, resulting in an estimated $170 billion in lost wages.

While HHS anted up $45 million in grants last year to expand long Covid support initiatives along with public health campaigns, the condition is still often ignored and underfunded.

“It’s not just about the initial infection of Covid, but also if you get it multiple times, your risks goes up significantly,” Cronin said. “It’s important that people understand that.”

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