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Week Ahead – Is the economic recovery stalling?

Week Ahead – Is the economic recovery stalling?

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Possible further evidence that the US economy is stalling could continue to take a bite out of risk appetite.  On Monday, the ISM manufacturing reading is expected to show the rebound continues, with textile mills, wood products and furniture leading the way.  The virus spread however will drag down prospects for new orders and investors will likely be skeptical of any strong prints.

The main event of the week is the US July unemployment report.  Job growth is expected to come in at a much slower pace, a gain of 1.52 million jobs, lower than the prior 4.8 million in June and the 2.5 million in May.  Given the volatility of this release, traders should not be surprised if we see a negative print.  If too much damage happens in the labor market, it won’t matter how much stimulus is thrown at the situation.  The recovery can level off, but if it reverses, that could trigger a significant selling of risky assets.

US Politics

Lawmakers have botched the latest COVID-19 relief bill.  Partisan politics provided unnecessary uncertainty for many Americans and that will weigh significantly with upcoming consumer data points.

Former-VP Biden will make his decision on his running mate.  Biden has signaled four African American women are under consideration as his running mate.  Biden will turn 78 a few weeks after the election, so his VP selection will be critical for many voters.

EU

The EU is officially in recession. No shock there, obviously, but as with the rest of the world, there are pockets of concern, Spain being one of those. With the UK imposing restrictions on those travelling to Spain this week, the tourism sector looks set to take another hit in what should have been the crucial final months of the summer. This may not be the bounceback third quarter the country had been hoping for. PMIs next week may give a sense of the mood heading into the end of the summer among businesses.

UK

The sterling recovery trade gathered momentum this week, even as parts of the UK faced tightening restrictions following a rise in Covid cases. The inevitability of this possibly explains why the currency has shrugged off these latest developments but its resilience may be tested over the next month.

Next week’s BoE meeting shouldn’t offer much of interest, with the central bank having only just increased its asset purchases and policy makers not likely ready to go negative on rates.

South Africa

South Africa is in the midst of a severe recession and is expected to contract by more than 7% this year. This comes as government debt balloons and with its credit rating already in junk territory. Moreover, Covid cases and deaths are on the rise even as the government attempts to ease restrictions, which have been among the harshest in the world. Difficult days lie ahead.

China

The Caixin PMI’s are expected to remain expansionary highlighting a slow but steady recovery.

Geopolitics is quiet at the moment as domestic issues take Trump’s attention.

Hong Kong

Covid-19 spread increases restrictions in HK. HK CEO to announce postponement of election due to Covid-19. Comes after 12 opposition candidates were barred under security provisions. None of this is good economic news for Hong Kong.

 

India

Covid-19 cases continue skyrocketing. India is now in top 4 for infections. INR remains under pressure as stress on the government budget and banking sector continue. A weaker US Dollar appears merely a stay of execution.  Very real possibility that India will repeat Indonesia’s recent playbook, and get the central bank to directly purchase new government bond issues. Negative currency and stocks.

Highest risk economy in Asia from an economic and Covid-19 perspective.

The Reserve Bank of India to cut 25 bps this week, will not lift the gloom.

Australia

Australian Dollar grinds higher but momentum slows as domestic issues weigh heavily..

Restrictions increased in Melbourne as Covid-19 cases jumped to 700+ a day. Borders closed with NSW and Queensland. Community infections increase in Sydney. Beginning to weigh on domestic recovery sentiment. The return of movement restrictions in Sydney a potential negative game-changer.

RBA rate decision. Unchanged but uber-dovish guidance. AUD has not rallied high enough to bring comments yet.

Japan

USD/JPY has crashed through 106.00 approaching 104.00. Higher Yen is driven by weaker Dollar and haven flows, weighing on Nikkei 225 with its export heavy components.

Covid-19 cases continue spiking higher in Tokyo. Local government is close to finally declaring a state of emergency. Negative Japan equities and Yen.

Markets

Oil

Crude prices could start to slide further since global oil demand continues to struggle and as OPEC+ begins to ease production cuts.  WTI crude prices continue to hang around the $40 level since the consensus remains that the worst of the economic downturn is behind both the Americans and Europeans.  The global economic recovery is teetering but a persistently weaker dollar and the ability for OPEC+ to remain nimble regarding production cuts have provided a strong layer of support for oil prices.

Important Chinese manufacturing data showed their recovery is still intact, however concerns remain that the data is plateauing.  The crude demand outlook will be dictated by the spread of the virus and in the short-term, it seems the US is getting a handle of the virus and that after a painful few more weeks, new cases, hospitalizations will all be trending lower.

Oil prices seem poised for further consolidation with risks to the downside.  WTI crude could consolidate between the $38.50 and $42.50 region for the next week.

Gold

Gold mania continues and after tentatively clearing the $2000 level, traders are starting to doubt whether a profit-taking pullback is in the cards.  Safe-haven demand remains strong as Congress and the White House continue to struggle to break the impasse on extending emergency unemployment benefits.  Gold will continue to shine bright as real yields continue to fall deeper into negative territory, virus surges will keep economic recoveries limited, and the stimulus trade will not go away until the labor market bounces strongly back.  Skyrocketing since the middle of July, gold should see a significant pullback at some point over the next week.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to benefit from the dollar’s demise.  The largest cryptocurrency in the world continues to dominate, now making up just under 80% of the crypto market.  Bitcoin seems like it has room to run higher but calls for a return to record highs seems premature.

Key Economic Events:

Sunday, Aug. 2
-Bavarian state premier Markus Soeder, an emerging contender to succeed German Chancellor Angela Merkel as the candidate for Germany’s ruling coalition in the next general election, gives an extended interview to ARD TV.

Monday, Aug. 3
-St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at a virtual event hosted by the Memphis branch of his bank. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans holds a conference call with reporters to discuss the economy.
-Most Canadian provinces observe the Civic/Provincial Day holiday. The Toronto Stock Exchange will be closed.
-Poland’s Supreme Court to rule on complaints of irregularities in July presidential election.
Economic Data:
US ISM manufacturing, construction spending, auto sales
Markit PMI manufacturing: Brazil, Mexico, U.S.
Brazil trade balance, total exports
Australia AiG performance of manufacturing index, CBA manufacturing PMI, inflation gauge, ANZ job advertisements, CoreLogic house prices
Japan GDP, PMI, vehicle sales
Markit PMI Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, , Thailand, Taiwan, India
China Caixin PMI
Thailand business sentiment index
Singapore purchasing managers index, electronics sector index
South African PMI, vehicle sales
Switzerland CPI, PMI
Sweden GDP
Manufacturing PMI Spain, Sweden, Netherlands, Italy, France, UK, Eurozone, Germany, Norway, Greece, Denmark, Ireland, Hungary, Polish,
Italy new car registrations, budget deficit
Tuesday, Aug. 4
Economic Data
U.S. factory orders, durable goods
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, trade
Australia rate decision, trade, retail sales, ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence, commodity index
Japan monetary base, CPI
Saudi Arabia crude prices
South Africa economic outlook
France budget balance
Spain unemployment
Turkey CPI
Switzerland consumer confidence

Wednesday, Aug. 5
– EIA crude oil inventory report
-Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester discusses the economic outlook
-Samsung plans to unveil a slate of new mobile devices at a virtual Galaxy Unpacked event
-Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen take part in an hour-long web event hosted by Columbia University.
Economic Data
U.S. ADP employment change, trade balance
Canada international merchandise trade
New Zealand house prices, unemployment, ANZ commodity prices
Australia performance of construction index, CBA PMI
Markit PMI Hong Kong, Singapore, India
Japan PMI
China Caixin PMI
Thailand rate decision, CPI
Services PMI Spain, Sweden, Italy, France, Germany, U.K., South Africa
Thursday, Aug. 6
Economic Data
U.S. initial jobless claims
India rate decision
New Zealand inflation expectation
Italy Industrial Production
U.K rate decision
Czech rate decison
South Africa electricity production
Friday, Aug. 7
-The U.S. July nonfarm payroll report: 1.52 million eyed vs 4.8 million prior, expected to show payrolls grew for a third consecutive month.
Economic Data
U.S. unemployment rate, wholesale inventories, Baker Hughes U.S. rig count
Mexico CPI
Chile trade balance, copper exports
Canada unemployment rate
Australia AiG performance of services index, RBA statement on monetary policy
Japan cash earnings, business cycle indicators index, household spending
China trade, BoP, foreign reserves
South Africa bond holdings, reserves
Germany Industrial Production
Sovereign Rating Updates:
– Russia (Fitch),
– Czech Republic (Moody’s)

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Disney remote jobs: the most magical WFH careers on earth?

Disney employs hundreds of thousands of employees at its theme parks and elsewhere, but the entertainment giant also offers opportunities for remote w…

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The Walt Disney Co. (DIS)  is a major entertainment and media company that operates amusement parks, produces movies and television shows, airs news and sports programs, and sells Mickey Mouse and Star Wars merchandise at its retail stores across the U.S.

While most of the jobs at the multinational entertainment conglomerate require working with people — such as at its theme parks, film-production facilities, cruise ships, or corporate offices — there are also opportunities for remote work at Disney. And while remote typically means working from home, with Disney, it could also mean working in a non-corporate office and being able to move from one location to another and conduct business outside normal working hours.

Related: Target remote jobs: What type of work and how much does it pay?

What remote jobs are available at Disney?

Many companies, including Disney, have called employees to return to the office for work in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the bulk of the company’s positions are forward-facing, meaning they involve meeting with clients and customers on a regular basis. 

Still, there are some jobs at the “most magical company on earth” that are listed as remote and don’t require frequent in-person interaction with people, including opportunities in data entry and sales.

While thousands work in forward-facing positions, such as greeting customers at Disney’s theme parks around the world, there are some positions with the Walt Disney Co. that allow work to be done remotely.

Orlando Sentinel/Getty Images

On Disney’s career website, there are limited positions available where the work is completely remote. One listing, for example, is for a “graphics interface coordinator covering sporting events.” This role involves working on nights, weekends, and holidays — times when corporate offices tend to be closed — and it may make sense for the company to hire people who can work from home or to travel and work in a location separate from the game venue.

Some of the senior roles that are shown on the website involve managers who can oversee remote teams, whether that be in sales or data. Sometimes, a supervisor overseeing staff who work outside corporate offices may be responsible for hiring freelancers who work remotely.

On the employment website Indeed, there are limited positions listed. A job listing for a manager in enterprise underwriting for a federal credit union indicates weekend duty, working outside of an 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. schedule, and being able to work in different locations. The listed annual salary range of $84,960 to $132,000, though, is well above the national annual average of around $50,000.

Internationally, Disney offers remote work in India, largely in the field of software development for its India-based streaming platform, Disney+ Hotstar.

The company also offers some hybrid schemes, which involve a mixture of in-office and remote work. For a mid-level animator position based in San Francisco, the role would involve being in the office and working from home occasionally.

How much do remote jobs at Disney pay?

Pay for remote jobs at Disney varies significantly based on location. A salary for a freelance artist in New York City, for example, may be higher than for the same job in Orlando, Florida. 

Disney lists actual salary ranges in some of its job postings. For example, the yearly pay for a California-based compensation manager who works with clients is $129,000 to $165,000.

In an online search for “remote jobs at Disney,” results range from $30 to $39 an hour, for data entry, or $28.50 to $38 an hour for social media customer support.

How can I apply for remote jobs at Disney?

You can look for remote jobs on Disney's career site, and type “remote” in the search field. Listings may also appear on career-data websites, including Indeed and Glassdoor.

How many employees does Disney have?

In 2023, Disney employed about 225,000 people globally, of which around 77% were full-time, 16% part-time, and 7% seasonal. The majority of the workers, around 167,000, were in the U.S.

Disney says that a significant number of its employees, including many of those who work at its theme parks, along with most writers, directors, actors, and production personnel, belong to unions. It’s not immediately known how many remote workers at the company, if any, are union members. 

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FoxO6-mediated ApoC3 upregulation promotes hepatic steatosis and hyperlipidemia in aged rats fed a high-fat diet

“This discovery unveils a potential novel molecular target for therapeutic strategies against hepatic steatosis during the aging process […]” Credit:…

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“This discovery unveils a potential novel molecular target for therapeutic strategies against hepatic steatosis during the aging process […]”

Credit: 2024 Kim et al.

“This discovery unveils a potential novel molecular target for therapeutic strategies against hepatic steatosis during the aging process […]”

BUFFALO, NY- March 20, 2024 – A new research paper was published in Aging (listed by MEDLINE/PubMed as “Aging (Albany NY)” and “Aging-US” by Web of Science) Volume 16, Issue 5, entitled, “FoxO6-mediated ApoC3 upregulation promotes hepatic steatosis and hyperlipidemia in aged rats fed a high-fat diet.”

FoxO6, an identified factor, induces hyperlipidemia and hepatic steatosis during aging by activating hepatic lipoprotein secretion and lipogenesis leading to increased ApoC3 concentrations in the bloodstream. However, the intricate mechanisms underlying hepatic steatosis induced by elevated FoxO6 under hyperglycemic conditions remain intricate and require further elucidation.

In this new study, researchers Dae Hyun Kim, Seulah Lee, Sang Gyun Noh, Jaewon Lee, and Hae Young Chung from Pusan National University aimed to delineate the regulatory pathway involving ApoC3 controlled by FoxO6 and its resultant functional impacts.

“[…] we employed a spectrum of models including liver cell cultures, aged rats subjected to HFD, transgenic mice overexpressing FoxO6 (FoxO6-Tg), and FoxO6 knockout mice (FoxO6-KO).”

Their findings indicate that FoxO6 triggered ApoC3-driven lipid accumulation in the livers of aged rats on an HFD and in FoxO6-Tg, consequently leading to hepatic steatosis and hyperglycemia. Conversely, the absence of FoxO6 attenuated the expression of genes involved in lipogenesis, resulting in diminished hepatic lipid accumulation and mitigated hyperlipidemia in murine models. Additionally, the upregulation of FoxO6 due to elevated glucose levels led to increased ApoC3 expression, consequently instigating cellular triglyceride mediated lipid accumulation. The transcriptional activation of FoxO6 induced by both the HFD and high glucose levels resulted in hepatic steatosis by upregulating ApoC3 and genes associated with gluconeogenesis in aged rats and liver cell cultures.

“Our conclusions indicate that the upregulation of ApoC3 by FoxO6 promotes the development of hyperlipidemia, hyperglycemia, and hepatic steatosis in vivo, and in vitro. Taken together, our findings underscore the significance of FoxO6 in driving hyperlipidemia and hepatic steatosis specifically under hyperglycemic states by enhancing the expression of ApoC3 in aged rats.”
 

Read the full paper: DOI: https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.205610 

Corresponding Author: Hae Young Chung

Corresponding Email: hyjung@pusan.ac.kr 

Keywords: HFD-feeding, aging, forkhead transcription factor O6, ApoC3, lipid accumulation, hepatic steatosis

Click here to sign up for free Altmetric alerts about this article.

 

About Aging:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed Central, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

  • Facebook
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Click here to subscribe to Aging publication updates.

For media inquiries, please contact media@impactjournals.com.

 

Aging (Aging-US) Journal Office

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Orchard Park, NY 14127

Phone: 1-800-922-0957, option 1

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The Digest #194

Poor Charlie’s Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons…

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Poor Charlie’s Almanack

Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger was first published in 2005 as a “coffee table” style book. It was beautifully presented but came with a high price tag. It was also heavy, somewhat unwieldy to read, and not very portable. The book’s format and price probably limited its reach. 

Stripe Press published a new edition of the book shortly after Mr. Munger died last year at the age of ninety-nine. Amazon and other vendors instantly sold all available inventory. After waiting for three months, I finally received my copy last week. 

Peter Kaufman is the editor of all editions of the book and I suspect that his main goal two decades ago was to honor Charlie Munger’s wisdom in a format that was not expected to “go viral.” In 2005, Charlie Munger was well known in the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder community and in the value investing world, but he was not as prominent as he became during his final decade. The clear purpose of the new edition is to disseminate his ideas as widely as possible. 

The new edition is abridged to reduce repetitive content and I will withhold judgment about the wisdom of this abridgment until I finish reading the book. Since the heart of the book is comprised of speeches given by Charlie Munger, there are definitely cases where the same ideas are presented again and again. 

Great books can be read many times while remaining highly relevant. I found this to be the case when I reread Charlie Munger’s Harvard School commencement address delivered in June 1986 when his youngest son was among the graduates. In the speech, Mr. Munger “inverts” the typical advice delivered in such speeches by explaining how the graduates should go about guaranteeing a life of failure and misery through time-tested strategies such as ingesting drugs and indulging in envy and resentment. 

I am not sure how many graduates were convinced by Charlie Munger on that early summer day, but I suspect that most of them remember the speech because it was so unconventional. In contrast, I have no recollection of the commencement addresses when I graduated from high school or college, or even who the speaker was.


Articles

A Memorial for Charlie Munger by John Harvey Taylor, March 12, 2024. This is a brief account of a recent memorial service for Charlie Munger at Harvard-Westlake School. “We learned Sunday that someone once asked if he knew how to play the piano. ‘I don’t know,’ he said. ‘I’ve never tried.’ Yet he tried and finished so much in his century. Imagine what he is making of eternity.” (Episcopal Diocese of Los Angeles)

Benjamin Graham: Big Moments on the Way to Big Earnings, March 2024. Ben Graham’s granddaughter reflects on the challenges Graham experienced when he applied for college. “Most graduating seniors make their college plans in advance, but Ben Graham had no money for tuition. All through the long days of arduous farm labor, my grandfather dreamed of winning a Pulitzer Scholarship.” (Beyond Ben Graham)

Graham’s “Unpopular Large Caps” Part 2: Thoughts on Diversification by John Huber, March 19, 2024. “I would segment these ideas into two groups: core operating investments and bargain assets. In the former, you want to be very selective in picking a relatively small number of companies you intend to own for the long term. In the latter, you’d want to think like the insurance underwriter, buying as many as you can to ensure that the law of large numbers is on your side.” (Base Hit Investing)

Warren Buffett Minds the GAAP by Donald E. Graham, March 13, 2024. “I have a challenge for the FASB and the SEC: If you believe today’s accounting rules present a clearer picture of Berkshire’s results, put it to a test. Ask Berkshire’s shareholders if they prefer the present method of reporting earnings over the status quo ante. I don’t believe a single informed shareholder would say so. The rule is confusing and uninformative.” (WSJ)

  • Berkshire Hathaway’s Distorted Quarterly Results, August 7, 2022. “Berkshire’s net income figure has been totally useless for analytical purposes since 2018. This is true on an annual basis and even more true on a quarterly basis.” (The Rational Walk)

Sir John Templeton: The Gentleman Bargain Hunter by Kingswell, March 12, 2024. “Templeton, who passed away in 2008, arrived on the investing scene with a series of uber-profitable contrarian bets in the early days of World War II — and continued to outwit Mr. Market with maddening consistency for the next several decades.” (Kingswell)

They Praised AI at SXSW—and the Audience Started Booing by Ted Gioia, March 19, 2024. Many recent innovations seem to have a dystopian aura. Apparently, this sentiment is not restricted to the usual luddites (old men shouting at clouds) but is shared by some of the attendees of SXSW. What seems cool to tech bros in Silicon Valley might not seem so cool to those outside tech culture. (The Honest Broker)

We Still Don’t Believe How Much Things Cost by Rachel Wolfe and Rachel Louise Ensign, March 12, 2024. People tend to focus on the aggregate amount of inflation over the past few years and interpreted transitory to mean that price spikes would reverse. Of course, politicians and economists only meant that the rate of inflation would decrease, not that prices would ever return to pre-pandemic levels. (WSJ)

My 2023 Apple Report Card by John Gruber, March 18, 2024. A solid report card overall from a widely read technology blog. (Daring Fireball)


Podcasts

Christopher Bloomstran on Buffett, Berkshire, Munger, and China, March 19, 2024. 1 hour, 1 minute. Video. Also be sure to check out the latest Semper Augustus client letter which has a lengthy section on Berkshire Hathaway. (Value After Hours)

Renaissance Technologies, March 18, 2024. 3 hours, 10 minutes. Notes“Renaissance Technologies is the best performing investment firm of all time. And yet no one at RenTec would consider themselves an ‘investor’, at least in any traditional sense of the word. It’d rather be more accurate to call them scientists — scientists who’ve discovered a system of math, computers and artificial intelligence that has evolved into the greatest money making machine the world has ever seen.” (Acquired)

Intuitive Surgical: Robotic Precision, March 20, 2024. 1 hour, 6 minutes. Transcript“Intuitive creates robotic products to assist minimally invasive surgeries. Its Da Vinci system is a pioneer in this area as it increases the efficiency & accuracy of surgery and reduces the burden on the surgeons themselves.” (Business Breakdowns)

The Lessons of History (Will & Ariel Durant), March 18, 2023. 53 minutes. Notes“In every age men have been dishonest and governments have been corrupt.” (Founders)

A Classicist Believes that Homer Directly Dictated the Iliad, and Was Also an Excellent Horseman, March 14, 2024. 53 minutes. “The Iliad is the world’s greatest epic poem—heroic battle and divine fate set against the Trojan War. Its beauty and profound bleakness are intensely moving, but great questions remain: Where, how, and when was it composed and why does it endure?” (History Unplugged)


Triumph of Achilles

Triumph of Achilles by Franz von Matsch, 1892 (public domain)

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Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and all content is subject to the copyright and disclaimer policy of The Rational Walk LLC.  The Rational Walk is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.

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