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Week Ahead – Fed, BoE, BoJ, SNB, SARB, CBRT and more to look forward to

Federal Reserve could be cautious as data continues to show economic resilience BoE may raise rates for the last time in this cycle BoJ eyed for more clues…

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  • Federal Reserve could be cautious as data continues to show economic resilience
  • BoE may raise rates for the last time in this cycle
  • BoJ eyed for more clues on interest rates after recent hints

US

The main event of the week will be the September FOMC meeting. Powell and Co. are expected to keep rates steady but may still signal one more rate increase is coming.  Too many upside surprises with service/jobs/consumer readings will keep the Fed upbeat on the economy, forcing them to revise up their GDP forecasts and to price in one more rate hike.  

Investors will also pay close attention to a steady dose of housing data.  On Tuesday, the release of both building permits and housing starts should show the housing market is stabilizing. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims are expected to show the labor market slowdown is slowly happening and existing home sales are steadying.   The key economic release of the weak is the flash PMIs, which are expected to show the economy is losing momentum.  

Eurozone

The ECB probably brought an end to its tightening cycle at its September meeting but it doesn’t end there, with traders now switching their focus to when the easing cycle will begin. Lagarde was keen to stress that they could hike again if necessary but the likelihood is that they won’t. 

Final HICP inflation data will be of interest on Tuesday, although revisions are not common and when they do happen, they’re usually small. Flash PMIs at the end of the week for the eurozone, Germany, and France will also be eyed.

UK 

It feels like a pivotal week for the UK, with inflation figures for August being released on Wednesday, one day before the Bank of England rate decision. While the central bank is believed to be near the end of its tightening cycle – in part due to the comments from policymakers in front of the Treasury Select Committee recently – one more on Thursday looks highly likely. 

And the inflation data a day earlier is not expected to complicate the discussion, with the headline CPI seen rising to 7.1% – driven by energy prices as we’ve seen elsewhere – and the core reading falling slightly to 6.8%. I can’t imagine that will inspire a majority to declare job done or even consider pausing just yet. Retail sales and flash PMIs will also be released on Friday. 

Russia

A quiet week following the CBR meeting on Friday, at which the central bank raised the Key Rate by another 100 basis points to 13%. Resurgent inflation and a slumping rouble is driving the central bank’s tightening efforts and more may be needed. PPI data on Wednesday will be eyed for signs of price pressures cooling, something we haven’t seen much of yet. We’ll also hear from various CBR policymakers throughout the week which will be interesting under the circumstances.

South Africa

The SARB is one of the few central banks that is not expected to raise interest rates next week, with the Repo Rate seen staying at 8.25%. Inflation data released a day earlier could spark a more lively debate but with headline and core both at 4.7% – well within the 3-6% target range – it probably won’t change the outcome. Retail sales figures will also be released on Wednesday.

Turkey

The CBRT meeting on Thursday brings a wide array of possibilities. Markets are expecting another 5% rate hike, taking the Repo Rate to 30% but expectations will vary massively. With inflation at almost 59% and the lira near record lows, there’s clearly a lot more to do to clean up the mess left by the previous Governor. 

Switzerland

Inflation is back below 2% – 1.6% in August – and yet the SNB is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. It’s expected to be the final hike in the cycle, leaving the Policy Rate at 2%, with the first cut not priced in until late next year. 

China

The only data to focus on will be the PBoC decision on the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates on Wednesday. After they left the 1-year medium-term lending rate unchanged at 2.50% on Friday following a reduction on the commercial banks’ reserve requirements ratio by 25 basis points, it is likely that the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rate rates will remain unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2% respectively.

Chinese economic data recently has started to improve. Retail sales in August rose 4.6% y/y, above the consensus of 3%, and surpassing July’s 2.5%; the strongest pace of growth since May. August’s industrial production also managed to beat expectations of 3.9% with a growth of 4.5% y/y; the highest reading since April.

All things considered, the latest set of economic data suggests that the risk of a deflationary spiral in China has abated by another notch.

India

No key data releases.

Australia

On Tuesday minutes of the recent RBA meeting will be released. At the last monetary policy meeting, the RBA extended its interest rate pause at 4.1% for the third consecutive meeting. Market participants will be looking for more clues on whether there will be further hikes after the latest jobs data rebounded following a surprise drop in July.

Next up, flash services and manufacturing PMIs for September will be released on Friday. A deeper contraction in the services PMI is expected, falling to 46.5 from 47.8 in August. That would be the third consecutive month of contraction in the services sector. Meanwhile, manufacturing is expected to remain almost unchanged at 49.5 versus 49.6 in August.

New Zealand

Two key data releases to take note of. Firstly, Q2 GDP on Thursday could see a dip to 1.2% y/y from 2.2% in Q1. That would be the weakest annualized quarterly growth since Q2 2022.

Balance of trade data for August is due on Friday with the trade deficit expected to narrow slightly to NZ$-0.9 billion from NZ$-1.11 billion in July. Imports are seen falling to NZ$6.1 billion from NZ$6.56 billion recorded in July.

Japan

A pivotal week with inflation data and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision. After BoJ Governor Ueda’s recent “quiet exit” comment from the current ultra-easy monetary policy stance, expectations for an earlier exit have dialed up with the first interest rate hike seen as early as Q1 2024.

Therefore, the upcoming inflation numbers for August out on Friday will be scrutinized closely. The core inflation rate is expected to be almost unchanged at 3% y/y versus 3.1% in July. That would be the eighteenth consecutive month that it exceeds BoJ’s target of 2%. Interestingly, the core-core inflation rate (excluding fresh food & energy) is expected to accelerate further to 4.4% y/y in August from 4.3% in July. 

The BoJ’s monetary policy decision will be on the same day. No change is expected after the “flexible” yield curve control policy on the 10-year JGB yield was enacted at the previous meeting. No release of the latest economic forecasts for Japan, hence all ears will be on Ueda’s press conference for hints on how confident he is on the inflation trajectory. 

Singapore

Balance of trade data for August will be out on Monday with export growth expected to be still in contractionary mode albeit at a slower pace, -15.8% y/y from -20.2% in July. This would be the 11th straight month of contraction.


Economic Calendar

Saturday, Sept. 16

Economic Events

Global Geothermal Conference in Beijing

Informal meeting of EU finance ministers concludes in Spain

Sunday, Sept. 17

Economic Events

No major events

Monday, Sept. 18

Economic Data/Events

US cross-border investment, NY Fed services business activity, NAHB housing market index

Canada housing starts

Singapore trade

Russian and Chinese foreign ministers to talk in Moscow

RBA Deputy Governor Bullock becomes central bank chief

German Finance Minister Lindner speaks at the Bloomberg Future of Finance Conference in Frankfurt

Ukraine defense ministers meet in Germany 

Tuesday, Sept. 19

Economic Data/Events

US housing starts

Canada CPI

Eurozone CPI

Mexico international reserves

RBA releases minutes of this month’s policy meeting

General debate starts at the United Nations’ 78th general assembly

OECD releases interim economic outlook report on the global economy

New Zealand PM Hipkins debates National Party leader Christopher Luxon  

ECB’s Elderson addresses conference at Goethe-Universität/Center for Financial Studies in Frankfurt

BOC Deputy Governor Kozicki speaks at the University of Regina

EU European affairs ministers to meet in Brussels

Wednesday, Sept. 20

Economic Data/Events

FOMC Rate Decision: Expected to maintain benchmark lending rate target at 5.25% to 5.5%

China loan prime rates

Eurozone new car registrations

Japan trade

South Africa retail sales, CPI

UK CPI

Bank of Canada issues summary of this month’s policy meeting

ECB’s Elderson speaks at Springtij Forum 2023 in Netherlands

FedEx reports earnings

Thursday, Sept. 21

Economic Data/Events

US leading index, initial jobless claims, existing home sales

BOE Rate Decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 5.50%

Eurozone consumer confidence

New Zealand GDP

Norway rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 4.25%

South Africa rate decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 8.25%

Spain trade

Sweden rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 4.00%

Switzerland rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 2.00%

Turkey rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 500bps to 30.00%

ECB’s Schnabel speaks at the ECB Annual Research Conference

ECB chief economist Lane addresses Money Marketeers of New York University in New York

Friday, Sept. 22

Economic Data/Events

US Sept flash manufacturing PMI: 47.9e v 47.9 prior; Services PMI: No est v 50.5 prior

Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI

Canada retail sales

European flash PMIs: Eurozone, Germany, France, and the UK

Japan BOJ rate decision: No change expected with rates, to keep ultra-easy policy

Japan CPI and preliminary PMIs

New Zealand trade

Spain GDP

Taiwan jobless rate

ECB VP de Guindos addresses online event

China’s Bund Summit

Atlantic Council’s “Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics” in Berlin, with German Economy Minister Habeck and others

Riksbank Governor Thedeen speaks on “Why is the Swedish krona so weak” in separate events 

Sovereign Rating Updates

Germany (S&P)

Poland (Moody’s)

Finland (DBRS)

France (DBRS)

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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