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Week Ahead – Dollar rally accelerates on Hawkish Fed

The steepening trade is dead for now as Treasury flattening accelerates.  The Fed’s super hawkish pivot is sending short-term Treasury yields and the US dollar higher.  The Fed is no longer in an ultra-accommodative stance, they are now just pretty…

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The steepening trade is dead for now as Treasury flattening accelerates.  The Fed’s super hawkish pivot is sending short-term Treasury yields and the US dollar higher.  The Fed is no longer in an ultra-accommodative stance, they are now just pretty accommodative. The two-year Treasury yield has rallied to 0.27%, while the 30-year yield continues to plunge towards 2.00%.

Falling bond yields on the long end could remain the trade as history suggests that when the Fed begins to signal the removal of accommodation, the curve will flatten.  Next week is filled with Fed speak that could show more policymakers are turning hawkish given the Fed’s overall surprise with pricing pressures this year.  Currency markets are bracing for potentially more dollar momentum as the Fed has signaled they are now not willing to tolerate much inflation over the next year.

In addition to getting clarity over the Fed’s message, Wall Street will pay close attention to a wrath of rate decisions, US and European flash PMIs, and US personal income and spending data. Both the Czech and Hungary central banks are expected to raise rates, while the BOE could start seeing more dissents over tapering its asset  purchases.  Commodity traders will closely watch to see if the broader commodity selloff continues.

Fed speak to deliver clarity over FOMC hawkish tilt

Emerging Markets begin tightening

Crude price volatility picks up

 

Country

US

After the Fed took the bond market on a rollercoaster ride, the upcoming week is all about getting more clarity over what it will take to get tapering started sooner.  Eleven Fed speakers and the release of Fed’s bank stress results will draw most of the attention.  Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress on Wednesday will closely be watched as some lawmakers will question the need to keep the current level of accommodation.

The main economic release of the week will be the flash PMIs which should show a modest decline across both manufacturing and the service sector.  The second most important release will be US personal income and spending, which comes along with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric.

 

EU

France holds regional elections on Sunday (June 13), with a second round of voting on June 27. The elections are a key test for President Emmanuel Macron, ahead of the presidential vote in 2023.

On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver remarks before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

The Eurozone and Germany release May Flash PMI reports on Wednesday. Manufacturing remains a bright spot, with German Manufacturing PMI expected at 64.4 and the Eurozone at 62.6, well into expansionary territory.

The services sector is also showing growth. The Services PMIs are expected to accelerate in May, with estimates of 55.0 in Germany and 57.3 in the Eurozone.

UK

On Thursday, the BoE holds a p0licy meeting. The bank is widely expected to maintain the Official Bank Rate at 0.10% and QE at 895 billion pounds.

May CPI rose above the BoE’s target of 2%, but the bank is expected to reiterate that higher inflation is transient. Even with this recent surge, inflation is projected to fall back below the 2% level in the first half of 2022. There continues to be a debate as to when the BoE will tighten policy, but it is looking more likely that the bank will press the trigger and raise rates in 2022.

 

Emerging Markets

Czech Republic

The Czech central bank will announce a rate decision on Wednesday. The bank is expected to raise the Repurchase Rate 25 basis points to 0.50%, to curb rising inflation. This would mark the first-rate hike by the bank since the Covid pandemic.

Hungary

On Tuesday, Hungary’s central bank is expected to raise its benchmark base rate by 30 basis points, to 0.90%. Hungary is experiencing the fastest inflation in the EU, and a rate hike would be the first by an EU member.

China

The only data of note is on Monday when China is expected to leave its one and five-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged. It would be a huge surprise if China hiked this week (Q4 earliest expected) as the PBOC contents itself with withdrawing liquidity via the repo market. A hike would be a huge negative for local equities.

Elsewhere China has temporarily forced down commodity prices, but that has yet to lift local equities. As a net importer, it is a battle it will eventually lose and that is reflected in equity markets.

China’s clampdown on tech continues with anti-trust launched against Didi Chuxing which is coincidentally nearing a US IPO. China’s interventions in recent times continue to weigh on equity sentiment.

India

India’s COVID-19 cases appear to be on the right track as cases fall.  That has led to increased buying of oil by importers which has put a floor under USD/INR over the last week as parts of the country reopen. USD/INR has rallied spectacularly this week from 73.1000 to 71.100, accelerating after the FOMC lifted the US Dollar globally. Combined with the return of oil importers, upward pressure will remain on USD/INR.

If US bond yields finally react to the FOMC by rising, the pressure on the INR and local equities will increase.

There are no significant data releases this coming week.

Australia & New Zealand

Blockbuster data releases in Australia (employment), and New Zealand (GDP) lifted the Australian and New Zealand Dollars on Thursday. The rally was short-lived as both were overwhelmed by the post-FOMC US Dollar rally. AUD and NZD have both suffered 2.0% losses for the week as measures of global risk sentiment. Both are sitting near support zones at 0.7500 and 0.6950 and failure opens up potential 200 to 300 point moves lower in the coming week.

The data calendars are quiet with neither Australia Retail Sales nor the New Zealand Balance of Trade likely to move the needle. This is a US Dollar story at the moment, not an Antipodean one.

Australian equities have been surprisingly resilient this week and despite China’s efforts on commodities, major Australian mining stocks are unmoved. That implies that the market regards the commodity sell-off as temporary and will be bullish for Australian equities going forward, as will a lower Australian Dollar.

Japan

The Bank of Japan policy announcement passed without incident with the BOJ unchanged on all fronts. They did, however, extend pandemic recovery packages which will be a boost for local equities. Japan equities otherwise have been firm this week, and if the Yen keeps falling as it has been, equity markets in Japan, laden with exporters, will remain in demand.

No Japan data to move the volatility needle is released next week.

Political risk is increasing in Japan. PM Suga has been dragged into the Toshiba Board governance scandal with accusations of direct interference. This is an evolving situation which won’t unseat him, but threatens to make the rumoured post-Olympics snap election a much more closely run affair.

Markets

Oil

Crude prices will have plenty of drivers next week, as energy traders focus on further unwinding of reflation trades on further hawkishness from Fed policymakers, possibly the first tropical system of the Atlantic hurricane season, a pivotal moment over Iran nuclear deal negotiations, and a slower reopening across Europe due to COVID variant concerns.

The commodity super cycle trade has come under pressure, mostly following China’s crackdown over the metals and soft grains, which has triggered some weakness for oil prices.  The crude demand outlook is still very robust for the next couple of quarters, so a major pullback in crude seems unlikely unless Iran is granted immediate sanction relief and able to rapidly increase production.

Gold

Gold has become a shadow of the bond market.  If the bond market selloff intensifies (Treasury yields rise), gold prices enter freefall.  If the commodity selloff remains the theme on Wall Street and if the dollar remains king, gold selling could remain strong.

Longer-term bullion bulls are still confident in the outlook for the precious metal, but are hesitant to jump back in at current levels.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains stuck in a trading range, awaiting any developments over progress into transitioning into cleaner energy and most importantly if other countries follow El Salvador’s lead in making Bitcoin legal tender.  Bitcoin has not received any fresh endorsements on Wall Street and that probably won’t happen until clarity emerges over regulation and ESG concerns.

Bitcoin has been contained to the $30,000 to $41,000 trading range and that could last a little longer.  The collapse of other tokens has not impacted Bitcoin as some crypto traders have begun consolidating their positions to the best of breed.  The longer-term bullish thesis for Bitcoin holds for many traders, but for now a lengthy consolidation is welcomed.

 

Key Economic Events

Saturday, June 19

– Iranian presidential election results are expected.

Sunday, June 20

– Iran’s nuclear talks could resume in Vienna

– First round of French regional elections, with a second round, on June 27.  Some view these elections as a referendum on Macron’s reform agenda.

Monday, June 21

– St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Dallas Fed President Kaplan speak at the Fed Week event. New York Fed President Williams gives a virtual keynote to the Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America.

– ECB President Lagarde addresses the European Parliament.

Economic Data/Events:

  • China loan prime rates
  • Swiss Money supply
  • Australia retail sales
  • Poland PPI
  • Hungary consumer and business confidence
  • UK Rightmove house prices

Tuesday, June 22

– EU general affairs council meets to discuss the rule of law in Poland and “Values of the Union” in Hungary.

– Fed Chair Powell testifies at a House Subcommittee hearing on the Fed’s pandemic response

– San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks at a Peterson Institute virtual event. Cleveland Fed President Mester talks about financial stability at a Norges Bank virtual workshop.

UK Brexit minister Frost discusses the ongoing EU dispute over the Brexit trade deal and the imposition of controls across the Irish Sea.

Economic Data/Events:

 

  • US existing home sales
  • Hungary Rate decision: Expected to raise interest rates by 30 basis points to 0.90%
  • Eurozone Consumer confidence
  • Ireland PPI
  • New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence,
  • Japan department store sales, machine tool orders
  • Mexico international reserves
  • UK public finances, CBI trends
  • Poland retail sales

Wednesday, June 23

– Fed Governor Bowman speaks at a conference on economic resilience.

– Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks

– Boston Fed President Rosengren speaks to the National Association of Corporate Directors.

– ECB Vice President de Guindos speaks at Universidad Internacional Menendez Pelayo’s event.

Economic Data/Events:

  • Czech Rate Decision: Expected to raise Repurchase Rate 25 basis points to 0.50%
  • US Markit Manufacturing PMI, new home sales, current account balance
  • Canada Retail Sales
  • Mexico Retail Sales
  • Eurozone manufacturing PMI:
  • UK manufacturing PMI
  • Germany manufacturing PMI
  • Australia manufacturing PMI
  • Japan PMIs, leading index
  • Singapore CPI
  • South Africa CPI
  • Thailand trade
  • Ireland unemployment
  • EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report

Thursday, June 24

– The Fed releases the results of stress tests on the largest US banks.

– EU leaders meet in Brussels

– Fed Presidents Harker (Philadelphia) and Bostic (Atlanta) join a panel hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.

– St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks at a virtual event hosted by the Clayton Chamber of Commerce.

– New York Fed President Williams discusses Staten Island’s economy.

– ECB Executive Board member Schnabel speaks at a University of Cyprus event on the central bank’s response to the pandemic.

– ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta speaks at an EBF event on the digital euro.

Economic Data/Events:

  • US wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, GDP, durable goods
  • BOE Rate Decision: No changes expected in rates or asset purchases.
  • Mexico Rate Decision: No change in monetary policy expected.
  • Germany IFO business climate
  • France manufacturing confidence
  • Eurozone ECB Economic Bulletin
  • Japan PPI services, supermarket sales
  • South Africa PPI
  • Sweden PPI
  • Spain GDP
  • Turkey capacity utilization, real sector confidence

Friday, June 25

-Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks at the virtual Policy Summit 2021 on economic resilience

– Boston Fed President Rosengren talks about financial stability at Fed Week event.

Economic Data/Events:

  • US personal income/spending, University of Michigan sentiment
  • New Zealand trade
  • China BoP
  • Singapore industrial production
  • Thailand forward contracts, foreign reserves
  • Japan Tokyo CPI
  • Mexico IGAE economic activity
  • Turkey foreign tourist arrivals
  • UK GfK consumer confidence
  • Italy consumer/manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment

Sovereign Rating Updates:

– Czech Republic (Fitch)

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The Grinch Who Stole Freedom

The Grinch Who Stole Freedom

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Before President Joe Biden’s State of the…

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35 mins ago

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March 11, 2024

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The Grinch Who Stole Freedom

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Before President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address, the pundit class was predicting that he would deliver a message of unity and calm, if only to attract undecided voters to his side.

President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on March 7, 2024. (Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images)

He did the opposite. The speech revealed a loud, cranky, angry, bitter side of the man that people don’t usually see. It seemed like the real Joe Biden I remember from the old days, full of venom, sarcasm, disdain, threats, and extreme partisanship.

The base might have loved it except that he made reference to an “illegal” alien, which is apparently a trigger word for the left. He failed their purity test.

The speech was stunning in its bile and bitterness. It’s beyond belief that he began with a pitch for more funds for the Ukraine war, which has killed 10,000 civilians and some 200,000 troops on both sides. It’s a bloody mess that could have been resolved early on but for U.S. tax funding of the conflict.

Despite the push from the higher ends of conservative commentary, average Republicans have turned hard against this war. The United States is in a fiscal crisis and every manner of domestic crisis, and the U.S. president opens his speech with a pitch to protect the border in Ukraine? It was completely bizarre, and lent some weight to the darkest conspiracies about why the Biden administration cares so much about this issue.

From there, he pivoted to wildly overblown rhetoric about the most hysterically exaggerated event of our times: the legendary Jan. 6 protests on Capitol Hill. Arrests for daring to protest the government on that day are growing.

The media and the Biden administration continue to describe it as the worst crisis since the War of the Roses, or something. It’s all a wild stretch, but it set the tone of the whole speech, complete with unrelenting attacks on former President Donald Trump. He would use the speech not to unite or make a pitch that he is president of the entire country but rather intensify his fundamental attack on everything America is supposed to be.

Hard to isolate the most alarming part, but one aspect really stood out to me. He glared directly at the Supreme Court Justices sitting there and threatened them with political power. He said that they were awful for getting rid of nationwide abortion rights and returning the issue to the states where it belongs, very obviously. But President Biden whipped up his base to exact some kind of retribution against the court.

Looking this up, we have a few historical examples of presidents criticizing the court but none to their faces in a State of the Union address. This comes two weeks after President Biden directly bragged about defying the Supreme Court over the issue of student loan forgiveness. The court said he could not do this on his own, but President Biden did it anyway.

Here we have an issue of civic decorum that you cannot legislate or legally codify. Essentially, under the U.S. system, the president has to agree to defer to the highest court in its rulings even if he doesn’t like them. President Biden is now aggressively defying the court and adding direct threats on top of that. In other words, this president is plunging us straight into lawlessness and dictatorship.

In the background here, you must understand, is the most important free speech case in U.S. history. The Supreme Court on March 18 will hear arguments over an injunction against President Biden’s administrative agencies as issued by the Fifth Circuit. The injunction would forbid government agencies from imposing themselves on media and social media companies to curate content and censor contrary opinions, either directly or indirectly through so-called “switchboarding.”

A ruling for the plaintiffs in the case would force the dismantling of a growing and massive industry that has come to be called the censorship-industrial complex. It involves dozens or even more than 100 government agencies, including quasi-intelligence agencies such as the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which was set up only in 2018 but managed information flow, labor force designations, and absentee voting during the COVID-19 response.

A good ruling here will protect free speech or at least intend to. But, of course, the Biden administration could directly defy it. That seems to be where this administration is headed. It’s extremely dangerous.

A ruling for the defense and against the injunction would be a catastrophe. It would invite every government agency to exercise direct control over all media and social media in the country, effectively abolishing the First Amendment.

Close watchers of the court have no clear idea of how this will turn out. But watching President Biden glare at court members at the address, one does wonder. Did they sense the threats he was making against them? Will they stand up for the independence of the judicial branch?

Maybe his intimidation tactics will end up backfiring. After all, does the Supreme Court really think it is wise to license this administration with the power to control all information flows in the United States?

The deeper issue here is a pressing battle that is roiling American life today. It concerns the future and power of the administrative state versus the elected one. The Constitution contains no reference to a fourth branch of government, but that is what has been allowed to form and entrench itself, in complete violation of the Founders’ intentions. Only the Supreme Court can stop it, if they are brave enough to take it on.

If you haven’t figured it out yet, and surely you have, President Biden is nothing but a marionette of deep-state interests. He is there to pretend to be the people’s representative, but everything that he does is about entrenching the fourth branch of government, the permanent bureaucracy that goes on its merry way without any real civilian oversight.

We know this for a fact by virtue of one of his first acts as president, to repeal an executive order by President Trump that would have reclassified some (or many) federal employees as directly under the control of the elected president rather than have independent power. The elites in Washington absolutely panicked about President Trump’s executive order. They plotted to make sure that he didn’t get a second term, and quickly scratched that brilliant act by President Trump from the historical record.

This epic battle is the subtext behind nearly everything taking place in Washington today.

Aside from the vicious moment of directly attacking the Supreme Court, President Biden set himself up as some kind of economic central planner, promising to abolish hidden fees and bags of chips that weren’t full enough, as if he has the power to do this, which he does not. He was up there just muttering gibberish. If he is serious, he believes that the U.S. president has the power to dictate the prices of every candy bar and hotel room in the United States—an absolutely terrifying exercise of power that compares only to Stalin and Mao. And yet there he was promising to do just that.

Aside from demonizing the opposition, wildly exaggerating about Jan. 6, whipping up war frenzy, swearing to end climate change, which will make the “green energy” industry rich, threatening more taxes on business enterprise, promising to cure cancer (again!), and parading as the master of candy bar prices, what else did he do? Well, he took credit for the supposedly growing economy even as a vast number of Americans are deeply suffering from his awful policies.

It’s hard to imagine that this speech could be considered a success. The optics alone made him look like the Grinch who stole freedom, except the Grinch was far more articulate and clever. He’s a mean one, Mr. Biden.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:00

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Vaccine-skeptical mothers say bad health care experiences made them distrust the medical system

Vaccine skepticism, and the broader medical mistrust and far-reaching anxieties it reflects, is not just a fringe position in the 21st century.

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4 hours ago

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March 11, 2024

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Women's own negative medical experiences influence their vaccine decisions for their kids. AP Photo/Ted S. Warren

Why would a mother reject safe, potentially lifesaving vaccines for her child?

Popular writing on vaccine skepticism often denigrates white and middle-class mothers who reject some or all recommended vaccines as hysterical, misinformed, zealous or ignorant. Mainstream media and medical providers increasingly dismiss vaccine refusal as a hallmark of American fringe ideology, far-right radicalization or anti-intellectualism.

But vaccine skepticism, and the broader medical mistrust and far-reaching anxieties it reflects, is not just a fringe position.

Pediatric vaccination rates had already fallen sharply before the COVID-19 pandemic, ushering in the return of measles, mumps and chickenpox to the U.S. in 2019. Four years after the pandemic’s onset, a growing number of Americans doubt the safety, efficacy and necessity of routine vaccines. Childhood vaccination rates have declined substantially across the U.S., which public health officials attribute to a “spillover” effect from pandemic-related vaccine skepticism and blame for the recent measles outbreak. Almost half of American mothers rated the risk of side effects from the MMR vaccine as medium or high in a 2023 survey by Pew Research.

Recommended vaccines go through rigorous testing and evaluation, and the most infamous charges of vaccine-induced injury have been thoroughly debunked. How do so many mothers – primary caregivers and health care decision-makers for their families – become wary of U.S. health care and one of its most proven preventive technologies?

I’m a cultural anthropologist who studies the ways feelings and beliefs circulate in American society. To investigate what’s behind mothers’ vaccine skepticism, I interviewed vaccine-skeptical mothers about their perceptions of existing and novel vaccines. What they told me complicates sweeping and overly simplified portrayals of their misgivings by pointing to the U.S. health care system itself. The medical system’s failures and harms against women gave rise to their pervasive vaccine skepticism and generalized medical mistrust.

The seeds of women’s skepticism

I conducted this ethnographic research in Oregon from 2020 to 2021 with predominantly white mothers between the ages of 25 and 60. My findings reveal new insights about the origins of vaccine skepticism among this demographic. These women traced their distrust of vaccines, and of U.S. health care more generally, to ongoing and repeated instances of medical harm they experienced from childhood through childbirth.

girl sitting on exam table faces a doctor viewer can see from behind
A woman’s own childhood mistreatment by a doctor can shape her health care decisions for the next generation. FatCamera/E+ via Getty Images

As young girls in medical offices, they were touched without consent, yelled at, disbelieved or threatened. One mother, Susan, recalled her pediatrician abruptly lying her down and performing a rectal exam without her consent at the age of 12. Another mother, Luna, shared how a pediatrician once threatened to have her institutionalized when she voiced anxiety at a routine physical.

As women giving birth, they often felt managed, pressured or discounted. One mother, Meryl, told me, “I felt like I was coerced under distress into Pitocin and induction” during labor. Another mother, Hallie, shared, “I really battled with my provider” throughout the childbirth experience.

Together with the convoluted bureaucracy of for-profit health care, experiences of medical harm contributed to “one million little touch points of information,” in one mother’s phrase, that underscored the untrustworthiness and harmful effects of U.S. health care writ large.

A system that doesn’t serve them

Many mothers I interviewed rejected the premise that public health entities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration had their children’s best interests at heart. Instead, they tied childhood vaccination and the more recent development of COVID-19 vaccines to a bloated pharmaceutical industry and for-profit health care model. As one mother explained, “The FDA is not looking out for our health. They’re looking out for their wealth.”

After ongoing negative medical encounters, the women I interviewed lost trust not only in providers but the medical system. Frustrating experiences prompted them to “do their own research” in the name of bodily autonomy. Such research often included books, articles and podcasts deeply critical of vaccines, public health care and drug companies.

These materials, which have proliferated since 2020, cast light on past vaccine trials gone awry, broader histories of medical harm and abuse, the rapid growth of the recommended vaccine schedule in the late 20th century and the massive profits reaped from drug development and for-profit health care. They confirmed and hardened women’s suspicions about U.S. health care.

hands point to a handwritten vaccination record
The number of recommended childhood vaccines has increased over time. Mike Adaskaveg/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald via Getty Images

The stories these women told me add nuance to existing academic research into vaccine skepticism. Most studies have considered vaccine skepticism among primarily white and middle-class parents to be an outgrowth of today’s neoliberal parenting and intensive mothering. Researchers have theorized vaccine skepticism among white and well-off mothers to be an outcome of consumer health care and its emphasis on individual choice and risk reduction. Other researchers highlight vaccine skepticism as a collective identity that can provide mothers with a sense of belonging.

Seeing medical care as a threat to health

The perceptions mothers shared are far from isolated or fringe, and they are not unreasonable. Rather, they represent a growing population of Americans who hold the pervasive belief that U.S. health care harms more than it helps.

Data suggests that the number of Americans harmed in the course of treatment remains high, with incidents of medical error in the U.S. outnumbering those in peer countries, despite more money being spent per capita on health care. One 2023 study found that diagnostic error, one kind of medical error, accounted for 371,000 deaths and 424,000 permanent disabilities among Americans every year.

Studies reveal particularly high rates of medical error in the treatment of vulnerable communities, including women, people of color, disabled, poor, LGBTQ+ and gender-nonconforming individuals and the elderly. The number of U.S. women who have died because of pregnancy-related causes has increased substantially in recent years, with maternal death rates doubling between 1999 and 2019.

The prevalence of medical harm points to the relevance of philosopher Ivan Illich’s manifesto against the “disease of medical progress.” In his 1982 book “Medical Nemesis,” he insisted that rather than being incidental, harm flows inevitably from the structure of institutionalized and for-profit health care itself. Illich wrote, “The medical establishment has become a major threat to health,” and has created its own “epidemic” of iatrogenic illness – that is, illness caused by a physician or the health care system itself.

Four decades later, medical mistrust among Americans remains alarmingly high. Only 23% of Americans express high confidence in the medical system. The United States ranks 24th out of 29 peer high-income countries for the level of public trust in medical providers.

For people like the mothers I interviewed, who have experienced real or perceived harm at the hands of medical providers; have felt belittled, dismissed or disbelieved in a doctor’s office; or spent countless hours fighting to pay for, understand or use health benefits, skepticism and distrust are rational responses to lived experience. These attitudes do not emerge solely from ignorance, conspiracy thinking, far-right extremism or hysteria, but rather the historical and ongoing harms endemic to the U.S. health care system itself.

Johanna Richlin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Is the National Guard a solution to school violence?

School board members in one Massachusetts district have called for the National Guard to address student misbehavior. Does their request have merit? A…

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4 hours ago

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March 11, 2024

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Every now and then, an elected official will suggest bringing in the National Guard to deal with violence that seems out of control.

A city council member in Washington suggested doing so in 2023 to combat the city’s rising violence. So did a Pennsylvania representative concerned about violence in Philadelphia in 2022.

In February 2024, officials in Massachusetts requested the National Guard be deployed to a more unexpected location – to a high school.

Brockton High School has been struggling with student fights, drug use and disrespect toward staff. One school staffer said she was trampled by a crowd rushing to see a fight. Many teachers call in sick to work each day, leaving the school understaffed.

As a researcher who studies school discipline, I know Brockton’s situation is part of a national trend of principals and teachers who have been struggling to deal with perceived increases in student misbehavior since the pandemic.

A review of how the National Guard has been deployed to schools in the past shows the guard can provide service to schools in cases of exceptional need. Yet, doing so does not always end well.

How have schools used the National Guard before?

In 1957, the National Guard blocked nine Black students’ attempts to desegregate Central High School in Little Rock, Arkansas. While the governor claimed this was for safety, the National Guard effectively delayed desegregation of the school – as did the mobs of white individuals outside. Ironically, weeks later, the National Guard and the U.S. Army would enforce integration and the safety of the “Little Rock Nine” on orders from President Dwight Eisenhower.

Three men from the mob around Little Rock’s Central High School are driven from the area at bayonet-point by soldiers of the 101st Airborne Division on Sept. 25, 1957. The presence of the troops permitted the nine Black students to enter the school with only minor background incidents. Bettmann via Getty Images

One of the most tragic cases of the National Guard in an educational setting came in 1970 at Kent State University. The National Guard was brought to campus to respond to protests over American involvement in the Vietnam War. The guardsmen fatally shot four students.

In 2012, then-Sen. Barbara Boxer, a Democrat from California, proposed funding to use the National Guard to provide school security in the wake of the Sandy Hook school shooting. The bill was not passed.

More recently, the National Guard filled teacher shortages in New Mexico’s K-12 schools during the quarantines and sickness of the pandemic. While the idea did not catch on nationally, teachers and school personnel in New Mexico generally reported positive experiences.

Can the National Guard address school discipline?

The National Guard’s mission includes responding to domestic emergencies. Members of the guard are part-time service members who maintain civilian lives. Some are students themselves in colleges and universities. Does this mission and training position the National Guard to respond to incidents of student misbehavior and school violence?

On the one hand, New Mexico’s pandemic experience shows the National Guard could be a stopgap to staffing shortages in unusual circumstances. Similarly, the guards’ eventual role in ensuring student safety during school desegregation in Arkansas demonstrates their potential to address exceptional cases in schools, such as racially motivated mob violence. And, of course, many schools have had military personnel teaching and mentoring through Junior ROTC programs for years.

Those seeking to bring the National Guard to Brockton High School have made similar arguments. They note that staffing shortages have contributed to behavior problems.

One school board member stated: “I know that the first thought that comes to mind when you hear ‘National Guard’ is uniform and arms, and that’s not the case. They’re people like us. They’re educated. They’re trained, and we just need their assistance right now. … We need more staff to support our staff and help the students learn (and) have a safe environment.”

Yet, there are reasons to question whether calls for the National Guard are the best way to address school misconduct and behavior. First, the National Guard is a temporary measure that does little to address the underlying causes of student misbehavior and school violence.

Research has shown that students benefit from effective teaching, meaningful and sustained relationships with school personnel and positive school environments. Such educative and supportive environments have been linked to safer schools. National Guard members are not trained as educators or counselors and, as a temporary measure, would not remain in the school to establish durable relationships with students.

What is more, a military presence – particularly if uniformed or armed – may make students feel less welcome at school or escalate situations.

Schools have already seen an increase in militarization. For example, school police departments have gone so far as to acquire grenade launchers and mine-resistant armored vehicles.

Research has found that school police make students more likely to be suspended and to be arrested. Similarly, while a National Guard presence may address misbehavior temporarily, their presence could similarly result in students experiencing punitive or exclusionary responses to behavior.

Students deserve a solution other than the guard

School violence and disruptions are serious problems that can harm students. Unfortunately, schools and educators have increasingly viewed student misbehavior as a problem to be dealt with through suspensions and police involvement.

A number of people – from the NAACP to the local mayor and other members of the school board – have criticized Brockton’s request for the National Guard. Governor Maura Healey has said she will not deploy the guard to the school.

However, the case of Brockton High School points to real needs. Educators there, like in other schools nationally, are facing a tough situation and perceive a lack of support and resources.

Many schools need more teachers and staff. Students need access to mentors and counselors. With these resources, schools can better ensure educators are able to do their jobs without military intervention.

F. Chris Curran has received funding from the US Department of Justice, the Bureau of Justice Assistance, and the American Civil Liberties Union for work on school safety and discipline.

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