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US Dollar Declines After Massive Payrolls Miss; Focus Shifts to Inflation

Wall Street went on a wild ride after a huge nonfarm payroll report miss reaffirms the Fed’s stance to do nothing.  A massive slowdown in hiring was not expected and the knee-jerk reaction across the bond market might have paved the way for further…

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Wall Street went on a wild ride after a huge nonfarm payroll report miss reaffirms the Fed’s stance to do nothing.  A massive slowdown in hiring was not expected and the knee-jerk reaction across the bond market might have paved the way for further dollar weakness.  The US economic recovery will likely take a lot longer than many have initially expected as concerns grow that the issue with the labor market is more of a supply problem.

The aftermath of the massive payroll’s downside surprise will have many investors shift the focus to pricing pressures.  Everything is starting to cost more, and employers may need to be prepared to increase wages.  The big economic release of the week will be the US April inflation report, which will see the “base-effects” in annual inflation due to the shock that hit the US economy last year.  Investors will also pay close attention to a wrath of Fed speak.  Fed’s Evans, Williams, Harker, Waller, and Bullard all speak on the US economic outlook, while Daly participates at a banker’s event and Kaplan takes part in a moderated discussion.

Investors will also keep a close eye on China’s inflation and credit data.  The world’s second largest economy should see inflation heat up and credit growth retrace.  China’s economic recovery appears to be steadying.

How high can US inflation go?

Is gold finally joining the super commodity cycle?

Pressure grows for India to lockdown

Country

US

The aftermath of a surprisingly disappointing nonfarm payroll report will justify Fed Chair Powell’s stance that he is not ready to start having a conversation on asset-purchase taper talk.  Despite a big miss with April jobs number, US growth exceptionalism is still widely expected these next couple of months, but financial markets could see a Powell pivot if inflation comes in much hotter-than expected and if the rest of the recovery remains very robust.

After a steady dose of hawkish comments from Fed’s Kaplan, Wall Street will want to see if other policymakers are leaning closer to him.  It is a busy week for Fed speak as Evans, Brainard, Daly, Williams, Clarida, Williams and Kaplan will all be making appearances.

Key economic indicators will also provide a better understanding of how strong the economy is and how quickly pricing pressures are accelerating.  Wednesday, all eyes will be on the April inflation report, which will show a massive year-over-year increase due to base-effects   Inflation will also be driven from supply chain disruptions and pent-up demand.

On Friday, US retail sales are expected to come back down to earth as the effects of the latest round of stimulus starts to wane.  February’s numbers were impacted by terrible weather, so the surge seen in March will likely be followed with only a modest gain in April.

EU

On Saturday (May 8), EU leaders will meet in Porto, Portugal for talks which will focus on social affairs. The 27 EU leaders are expected to announce the resumption of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations between the EU and India, which have been stalled since 2013. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to join the meeting remotely.

On Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron travels to Strasbourg, France, to launch his future of Europe debate at the EU Parliament. Macron, a staunch supporter of the EU project, is looking to combat Euroskepticism and improve how the EU engages with citizens.

The Eurozone’s Covid vaccine rollout continues to accelerate. On Monday, the EU begins trials to test its vaccine certificate system, with the goal of a June roll-out. The first trials will include Germany, France and Greece.

Germany releases ZEW Survey Expectations for May on Tuesday. The consensus stands at 71.4, which would be an improvement over the previous read of 70.7 points.

On Wednesday, the Eurozone releases Industrial Production for March, which has been hampered by a shortage of semiconductor chips used by automakers, is expected to rebound from -1.0% to to 0.7% on a monthly basis.

UK

On Monday, the U.K. government will announce if it plans to further ease pandemic rules as of May 17. This would include allowing pubs and restaurants to serve indoors and would remove the ban on non-essential foreign travel.

On Tuesday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion about Libor, the “final chapter”.

As well, the UK government will outline its agenda for a new session of Parliament via a speech by the Queen. The government may propose legislation that includes a post-Brexit state package, a plan to improve adult social care, and a revamp of national security legislation.

On Wednesday, the UK releases GDP for Q1. The economy is projected to have contracted, with a forecast of -1.6% (QoQ) and -6.1% (YoY). We’ll also look for Industrial Production to remain steady, with a month-over-month 1.0% gain.

BoE Governor Bailey will address an event hosted by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association on Wednesday. On Thursday, Bailey addresses a citizens’ panel, together with Sarah Breeden, who is in charge of the BoE’s work on climate change. At a separate event, BOE Deputy Governor Jonathan Cunliffe will discuss digital currencies.

Norway

Norway’s economy is expected to show weakness with the first quarter GDP readings.  Mainland GDP Q/Q is forecasted to decline by 0.7%, down from the 1.9% gain seen in the fourth quarter.

Emerging Markets

Turkey

A wrath of economic data could show Turkey’s economy weakened in March.  On Monday, the Unemployment Rate will be released.  Tuesday’s releases include current account balance and industrial production data.

China

China releases Inflation data on Tuesday. Markets will be on watch for an above 1.0% move which may increase expectations that the PBOC will raise its Loan Prime Rates as early as Q4 2020. It may also prompt the PBOC to ramp up its liquidity tightening. Negative for Chinese equities, positive for the Yuan. China New Yuan Loans and M2 could spook markets if lower than forecast, as early signs appear that the pace of China growth is slowing after the 2020 boost.

China regulator is considering new restrictions on Chinese companies listing overseas as part of a broader clampdown on China big-tech and data sharing. CHina equities finished the week lower and will start next week softer as regulatory threats persist. Both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 look fragile, with China’s “national team” the buyer of last resort. If they step aside, the fall could be quite aggressive.

Geopolitical noise is ramping up once again but is being ignored by markets for now, who prefer to concentrate on the global recovery story. The US has signalled it is in no hurry to wind back tariffs in its upcoming review, another local equity headwind.

India

India’s Covid-19 disaster continues to grab headlines and although cases remain above 400,000 per day foreign investors continue to pile back into the Indian Rupee and the Sensex on a “buy-the-dip” recovery play. The Sensex is Asia’s best performer the past week, and the Rupee has recovered all of its Covid-19 losses and now part of its RBI QE announcement losses.

The RBI announced more measures to free up liquidity in the financial system this week, which has been supportive of equities, although that momentum is showing signs of fading. Further progress from here will be more challenging as markets approach levels on the currency associated with RBI QE-based losses.

India releases Industrial Production and its Balance of trade next week, which will make grim reading. If WPI spikes on Friday, stagflation fears will return (did they really ever go away?) and that will be another equity and currency headwind.

Australia & New Zealand

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are riding the commodity wave into the end of the week, although much will depend on the Non Farm Payrolls result. Into next week, both are poised to play catchup with the outsized gains of the Canadian Dollar after ranging noisily this week.

Australian equity markets concentrated on soaring commodity prices, impressive bank earnings and another procession of impressive economic data. Even the partial suspension of the Australia/New Zealand travel bubble has had no effect on either market.

Australia releases NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Confidence next week. Both should show Australia’s rebound continues unabashed. The main threat to both Australia and New Zealand markets is Covid-19. THe community outbreaks in Western Australia and New South Wales appear contained, but if they spread, this will be a major headwind to local equities.

Japan

Japan’s Covid-19 states of emergency have been extended to the end of May, with new provinces added. The Olympics are now at serious risk of cancellation which will be a blow to domestic consumption recovery hopes. Although, with no overseas spectators allowed, some of that story is baked into markets.

Japan releases MAchine Tool Spending on Friday, but it is Thursday’s 30-year JGB auction that holds most interest.

Japan equities are riding the cyclical recovery wave, powered by domestic investors. USD/JPY though is marking time around 109.00 and remains at the mercy of the 10-year/10-year rate differential with the United States.

 

Markets

Oil

Crude prices remain stuck in wait-and-see mode over the COVID-19 spread across India and many emerging markets.  Despite all the concerns with the short-term outlook, the oil market seems poised for another run higher as US production remains below 11-million bpd and OPEC+ is sticking to the gradual increase to output plan.

On Monday, Saudi Aramco is expected to provide cargo allocations for June oil sales to customers.

Energy traders will pay close attention to the OPEC monthly oil market report on Tuesday.  Last month’s report saw OPEC predict a recovering oil market would absorb its extra supply.  Given the deteriorating outlook in Asia, OPEC could become slightly less optimistic and that could be a drag for prices.

On Friday, the weekly Baker Hughes rig count will be released.

Gold

Gold and silver got their grooves back after the Treasury curve flattened and sent the dollar sharply lower. Gold has not participated in the latest commodity super cycle move, but could be playing catch up.

Trading gold has evolved into a bet on what are your expectations for inflation.  The bond market seems to be less concerned about inflation down the road and that has been supportive for gold prices.

If Treasury yields become unanchored that would likely become a major drag for gold.

Bitcoin

It might seem like a stretch, but Elon Musk’s appearance on Saturday Night Live could have a similar reaction for the cryptoverse with what happened on April 20th.  A holiday for cannabis users, 420 was supposed to be the day that Dogecoin went to the moon.  It did not and that triggered a sell the news type reaction that saw Dogecoin lose almost half its value,with some contagion across some other coins.  That selloff however was quickly followed by relentless retail demand that also spurred further diversification into other altcoins.

Volatility should remain wild over the weekend and traders should not be surprised if Bitcoin breaks out of its trading range.

 

Key Economic Events

Saturday, May 8

-EU leaders gather in Portugal, for talks focused on social affairs

-Billionaire Tesla/SpaceX CEO Elon Musk to host “Saturday Night Live” on NBC.

Sunday, May 9

-French President Macron to launch his future of Europe debate at the EU Parliament.

Monday, May 10

-The UK government may relax more restrictive measures starting from May 17th

-The EU to start verifiable vaccine certificate trials in Greece, Germany, and France.

-Chicago Fed President Evans discusses the economic outlook at a virtual event hosted by the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW).

Economic Data:

  • Australia retail sales
  • Turkey unemployment
  • France industrial sentiment

Tuesday, May 11

– BOE Governor Andrew Bailey discusses Libor, the “final chapter.”

– U.S. Fed Governor Brainard takes part in a Q&A.

– San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks to the Community Bankers of Washington Northwest.

– New York Fed President Williams talks to the Alternative Reference Rate Committee.

– The Queen will deliver a speech outlining the UK government plans for the next 12 months or so.

– Norges Bank Deputy Governor Bache gives a speech.

Economic Data/Reports:

  • China PPI, CPI
  • Japan household spending
  • Germany may ZEW Expectations Survey: 71.4e v 70.7 prior; Current Situation: -40.0e v -48.8 prior
  • Italy industrial production
  • South Africa manufacturing production
  • Turkey current account, industrial production
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

Wednesday, May 12

-President Biden plans to host his first meeting with House and Senate leaders at the White House.

-Fed Vice Chair Clarida speaks at a National Association for Business Economics event.

-BOE Governor Bailey speaks at an International Swaps and Derivatives Association event.

Economic Data:

  • US Apr CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 2.6% prior
  • Germany CPI
  • India CPI, Industrial Production
  • Mexico Industrial production
  • UK Industrial Production
  • Eurozone Industrial Production
  • UK Preliminary Q1 GDP Q/Q: -1.7%e v +1.3% prior; Y/Y: -6.2%e v -7.3% prior
  • Norway GDP
  • Russia trade
  • EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report

Thursday, May 13

-Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks

-St. Louis Fed President Bullard discusses the US economic and policy outlook

-BOE Governor Bailey speaks

– BOE Deputy Governor Cunliffe speaks on digital currencies.

Economic Data/Events:

  • US initial jobless claims, PPI
  • Mexico central bank (Banxico) rate decision: Expected to keep Overnight Rate unchanged at 4.00%
  • New Zealand food prices

Friday, May 14

-Dallas Fed President Kaplan speaks in a moderated discussion at University of Texas McCombs School of Business.

Economic Data:

  • US May Prelim University of Michigan consumer sentiment: 90.0e v 88.3 prior, Apr Industrial production M/M: 1.3%e v 1.4% prior, Apr Advance Retail Sales M/M: 1.1%e v 9.7% prior
  • Canada existing home sales, manufacturing sales
  • India wholesale prices
  • Japan M2 money stock
  • New Zealand Manufacturing PMI
  • Poland CPI
  • Spain CPI
  • Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count

Sovereign rating updates:

– Portugal (Fitch)

– Iceland (S&P)

– Netherlands (S&P)

– Cyprus (DBRS)

 

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Government

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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