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US gov’t shutdown looms — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin starts the week with a trip to $26,000 — can BTC price strength overcome sellers and a weekly "death cross?"
Bitcoin (BTC)…
Bitcoin starts the week with a trip to $26,000 — can BTC price strength overcome sellers and a weekly "death cross?"
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the last week of September with a retest of $26,000 as a stubborn range persists.
An unimpressive weekly close sets the tone for the culmination of what is a traditionally lackluster month for BTC price action.
Having shaken off a hectic week of macroeconomic events, Bitcoin has plenty more to weather before September is up. United States GDP figures for Q2 will come on Sep. 28, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data following the day after.
The highlight, however, will likely come in the form of a speech from Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, a week after it opted to hold U.S. interest rates at current elevated levels.
Inflation remains a major talking point into Q4, and Bitcoin still lacks direction as week after week goes by without a clear upward or downward trend emerging.
Will this week be different? The countdown to the monthly close is on.
BTC price weekly chart prints "death cross"
BTC price performance, while steady over the weekend, deteriorated after the Sep. 24 weekly close.
BTC/USD took a trip to $26,000, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, with this level still managing to hold as support at the time of writing prior to the week’s first Wall Street open.
Eyeing the state of play on exchanges, commentators noted liquidations occurring for both long and short BTC positions.
Both sides almost liquidated.
— IT Tech (@IT_Tech_PL) September 24, 2023
Nice long squeeze. Bulls trapped. https://t.co/FxUGbwxx3v pic.twitter.com/us8Cxno5PZ
Bitcoin is still near two-week lows, bolstering arguments from already cautious analysts over what might come next.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital continued to track what he suggested could be a repeat of previous BTC price behavior. 2023, he argued at the weekend, might end up looking just like 2019 — its counterpart from last cycle.
“Bitcoin could follow the same bearish fractal from 2019 to drop lower in this Macro Range,” he suggested alongside a comparative chart.
In subsequent debate on X, Rekt Capital put the potential fractal downside target at near $20,000.
Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, meanwhile spied a so-called “death cross” on weekly timeframes.
Here, the falling 21-week simple moving average (SMA) has crossed under its rising 200-week counterpart — a phenomenon which highlights the comparative weakness of recent price action.
Uploading a chart showing a downside warning from Material Indicators’ proprietary price tools, Alan added that this would be invalidated should BTC/USD reclaim $26,500.
A #DeathCross + a new Trend Precognition ⬇️ Signal on the #btc Weekly Chart (Pump > $26.5 to invalidate).
— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) September 25, 2023
Any questions? pic.twitter.com/aBa64Be56D
A more optimistic take came from trader and analyst Credible Crypto, who believed a rebalancing of market composition would result in a return to $27,000.
“We had clear, visible and confirmed accumulation occurring in the green square,” he commented on a chart, building on analysis from the weekend.
“This latest push down looks to be manipulation to the downside (red square) prior to expansion to the upside. 27k incoming imo.”
September 2023 clings to "green" status
Despite the overnight weakness, Bitcoin remains in the black for September overall — a rare feat by historical standards.
The latest live data from monitoring resource CoinGlass puts BTC/USD up 0.8% month-to-date.
While this seems modest compared to the volatility normally seen with the pair, September usually forms a bearish prelude to more substantial upside traditionally seen in the month of October.
2023 is thus still on track to be Bitcoin’s strongest September performance for seven years.
October, which is informally known as “Uptober” among hodlers thanks to coinciding with BTC and broader crypto gains, is meanwhile already a talking point.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, suggested the start of next month could provide the fuel for the total crypto market cap to break above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).
“Total market capitalization for Crypto fights the resistance here of the 200-Week EMA,” he told X subscribers late last week.
“I think it's just a matter of time until we flip above it. Probably 1-2 weeks if Ethereum ETF Futures could be approved and Uptober begins.”
Bitcoin’s 200-week EMA continues to act as support, and currently sits at $25,700.
PCE data, Fed's Powell headline macro week
If last week’s macroeconomic events were not enough to induce significant volatility across Bitcoin and crypto markets, perhaps the month-end selection will have the desired effect.
Revised U.S. Q2 GDP precedes comments from Fed Chair Powell, as well as five other speakers including Governor Lisa Cook later on Sep. 28. Markets, as ever, will be closely watching the language used — especially by Powell — to determine how future economic policy might play out.
PCE data will come a day later, this known to be one of the Fed’s preferred gauges for measuring inflation trends.
“Very busy week just as volatility has returned,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in an X outlook.
The return of volatility is fantastic news for traders.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 24, 2023
More Fed uncertainty is back and we are ready for it.
We're publishing our trades for the week shortly.
In 2022, our calls made 86%.
Subscribe to access our analysis and see what we're trading:https://t.co/SJRZ4FrNBc
Prior to the data and Fed speakers, markets are pricing in a 75% chance that interest rates stay anchored at present levels at the next decision meeting in November, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Waiting in the wings before that, meanwhile, is the threat of a fresh U.S. government shutdown over budget wrangling. Politicians have until Oct. 2 to avert one, notes pro-Bitcoin commercial litigator Joe Carlasare.
Major October Catalysts (Part 2)
— Joe Carlasare (@JoeCarlasare) September 24, 2023
Predictive markets now anticipate a 70% of a Government Shutdown on October 2.
Millions of federal workers face delayed paychecks when the government shuts down, including many of the roughly 2 million military personnel and more than 2 million… pic.twitter.com/XTrt0g06t2
Analysis dismisses BTC exchange balance drop
Bitcoin available to buy on exchanges may be near its lowest levels since 2018, but this is no cause for celebration or even bullishness, one longtime analyst argues.
For Willy Woo, creator of statistics platform Woobull, the “synthetic” nature of exchanges’ BTC balances means that their multi-year decline does not represent the BTC supply becoming more illiquid or scarce.
“Will buying up the inventory of BTC on exchanges moon the price? NO! This is a fallacy,” he told X subscribers in a thread at the weekend.
“This happened all through the 2022 bear. There's no supply shock because synthetic BTC via futures markets added to inventory. The market made a bottom when futures markets relented.”
Woo argued that the approval of a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund, or ETF, in the U.S. would go some way to “rectify” the problem.
Futures, he added were the elephant in the room which skewed his own perspective of the market at the start of 2022 — before BTC/USD hit two-year lows of $15,600 in November.
“I saw the market bullish in early 2022 by reading on-chain (spot) flows as bullish, all the while the leviathan of futures impact was saying the opposite,” he admitted.
Bitcoin offers "fascinating" 2020 similarities
Regardless of near-term BTC price performance, some remain universally bullish when it comes to the overall health of Bitcoin this year.
Related: Bitcoin short-term holders ‘panic’ amid nearly 100% unrealized loss
Among them is the popular trader and analyst known as Moustache, who now believes that current levels could represent the last chance to “buy the dip” on BTC in 2023.
Uploading a chart comparing the status quo to that of 2020, Moustache additionally noted “fascinating” similarities in Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI).
#Bitcoin 2020 vs. #Bitcoin 2023
— ⓗ (@el_crypto_prof) September 22, 2023
Isn't it fascinating?
Perhaps the last "buy the dip" opportunity in 2023. pic.twitter.com/1S88g4Nc4x
He subsequently gave significance on the 200-week EMA holding as support.
“95% wait for lower prices that won't happen.,” he wrote in part of accompanying commentary, with another chart placing BTC/USD in an expanding “megaphone” structure.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
bitcoin ethereum crypto btc etf cryptoUncategorized
NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism
NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism
One month after the inflation outlook tracked…
One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%.
The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.
Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.
We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.
At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.
Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."
Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.
Turning to household finance, we find the following:
- The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
- Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
- At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."
Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months
Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.
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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more
New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…
- A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more.
- The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
- The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia.
Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.
The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later.
The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.
The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.
Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing.
Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year.
Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.
Metropolitan Area | Best Time to List | Price Premium | Dollar Boost |
United States | First half of June | 2.3% | $7,700 |
New York, NY | First half of July | 2.4% | $15,500 |
Los Angeles, CA | First half of May | 4.1% | $39,300 |
Chicago, IL | First half of June | 2.8% | $8,800 |
Dallas, TX | First half of June | 2.5% | $9,200 |
Houston, TX | Second half of April | 2.0% | $6,200 |
Washington, DC | Second half of June | 2.2% | $12,700 |
Philadelphia, PA | First half of July | 2.4% | $8,200 |
Miami, FL | First half of June | 2.3% | $12,900 |
Atlanta, GA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $8,700 |
Boston, MA | Second half of May | 3.5% | $23,600 |
Phoenix, AZ | First half of June | 3.2% | $14,700 |
San Francisco, CA | Second half of February | 4.2% | $50,300 |
Riverside, CA | First half of May | 2.7% | $15,600 |
Detroit, MI | First half of July | 3.3% | $7,900 |
Seattle, WA | First half of June | 4.3% | $31,500 |
Minneapolis, MN | Second half of May | 3.7% | $13,400 |
San Diego, CA | Second half of April | 3.1% | $29,600 |
Tampa, FL | Second half of June | 2.1% | $8,000 |
Denver, CO | Second half of May | 2.9% | $16,900 |
Baltimore, MD | First half of July | 2.2% | $8,200 |
St. Louis, MO | First half of June | 2.9% | $7,000 |
Orlando, FL | First half of June | 2.2% | $8,700 |
Charlotte, NC | Second half of May | 3.0% | $11,000 |
San Antonio, TX | First half of June | 1.9% | $5,400 |
Portland, OR | Second half of April | 2.6% | $14,300 |
Sacramento, CA | First half of June | 3.2% | $17,900 |
Pittsburgh, PA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $4,700 |
Cincinnati, OH | Second half of April | 2.7% | $7,500 |
Austin, TX | Second half of May | 2.8% | $12,600 |
Las Vegas, NV | First half of June | 3.4% | $14,600 |
Kansas City, MO | Second half of May | 2.5% | $7,300 |
Columbus, OH | Second half of June | 3.3% | $10,400 |
Indianapolis, IN | First half of July | 3.0% | $8,100 |
Cleveland, OH | First half of July | 3.4% | $7,400 |
San Jose, CA | First half of June | 5.5% | $88,400 |
The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.
federal reserve pandemic home sales mortgage rates interest ratesUncategorized
February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
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