Connect with us

Government

US Employment Data to Set Dollar’s Course

Overview: The
focus is squarely on the US employment report. At the risk of oversimplifying,
given the position adjustment in the past 48 hours, a solid…

Published

on

Overview: The focus is squarely on the US employment report. At the risk of oversimplifying, given the position adjustment in the past 48 hours, a solid report can see the greenback recover, while a disappointing report will likely see it deepen the correction of the rally that began with the February jobs report. The dollar recovered in the North American afternoon yesterday and many observers attributed it to the bevy of Fed comments. Yet, the interest rate market saw little reaction. It seemed that it was the dramatic reversal in US equities that helped dragged global shares down today, that forced US rates lower.  Asia Pacific equities tumbled, led by more than 1% losses in Japan and South Korea. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off around 1.2%, and if sustained, could be its biggest loss so far this year. European benchmark yields are 1-3 bp firmer. The 10-year Treasury yield is up a couple of basis points to 4.33%. It settled near 4.20% a week ago. 

The dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies, with the rally in oil giving the Norwegian krone the biggest lift (~0.3%), while the Swiss franc is the softest (~-0.2%). Emerging market currencies are mostly firmer. The timing of the reversal coincided with reports of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu signaling an escalation of the Middle East crisis by warning of confrontation with Iran and its proxies. May WTI bottomed near $84.65 shortly after midday in NY and within a few hours had reached through $87.20. It is consolidating in a narrow range above $86.35 after yesterday's big outside up day. Gold retreated to about $2268 today but has rebounded back above $2290 today.

Asia Pacific

The 1.5% month-over-month rise in Japanese retail sales in February hinted today's better household spending report. In February, household spending fell by 0.2% year-over-year; considerably better than the 2.9% decline median forecast in Bloomberg's survey. It is the smallest decline since last February when household spending rose by 1.6% year-over year. Spending rose by 1.4% month-over-month, the first increase since last September. As measured by GDP figures, Japanese consumption fell in the last three quarters last year, and economists in Bloomberg's survey anticipate a small decline in Q1 24. Looking ahead, the energy subsides are reduced this month and end next month. In June, income tax cuts will be implemented. Note that February labor earnings are due first thing Monday, but it is too early to see the impact of the annual wage round. Besides the wage data and February's current account, which is also to be announced Monday, the highlight of the week may be Prime Minister Kishida's visit to Washington. Security issues will be paramount. We had thought there was a reasonably good chance that Japan would be invited to join the AUKUS arrangement in some capacity. However, with Philippines' President Marcos also arriving for a triparty summit on April 11, a new security initiative may be announced.

Australia recorded an A$122.7 bln trade surplus in 2023, down from A$139.9 bln in 2022. It is off to a slower start this year. The February trade surplus, reported earlier today, of A$7.28 bln was considerably smaller than expected (~A$10.5 bln). That means that in the first two months of the year, Australia's surplus is running nearly 20% lower than in the Jan-Feb 2023 period. Goods exports fell by 2.2% while imports rose by 4.8% in February. Goods exports fell by an average of 0.4% a month last year, and that includes an average increase of 1.3% in Q4 23. Exports rose by 1.2% on average a month in 2022. Goods imports were flat last year, and that includes an average monthly decline of 2.5% in Q4 24. Australia's terms of trade (ratio of export and import prices) set a historic high in Q2 22 and deteriorated last year. 

The dollar was confined to a narrow range against the yen for most of yesterday (~JPY151.55 to JPY151.85). It broke down as cross positions were unwound and fell to almost JPY151.10. The losses were extended in early Asia Pacific trading to about JPY150.80 after the better-than-expected Japanese spending data. The exchange rate did not react to Prime Minister Kishida's threat to act against "excessive yen moves," or BOJ Governor Ueda's suggestion in an interview that summer-fall time period for another hike. In fact, the dollar has gradually recovered to around JPY151.40 today. Still, the inability for the dollar to take out JPY152 shows the power of the communication channel rather than material intervention. Like China's push back against the weakening of the yuan, the broadsides about race to the bottom, seem misplaced. The Australian dollar powered through a trendline that connects the late December high (~$0.6870), the March 8 high (~$0.6670), and the March 21 high (~$0.6635). It came in slightly below $0.6600 yesterday. Despite the intraday penetration, the Aussie's gains were pared in the North American afternoon, and it settled near $0.6585, but still above Wednesday's high (~$0.6570). It has traded in about a third of a cent range today below $0.6600. On a strong US employment report, the Aussie could fall back toward the $0.6535 area. The dollar was so close to the upper end of its band against the yuan that before the yesterday and today's holiday some very short-dated swaps, which implied a move outside the band, were rejected. However, since it is arguably a dollar move taking place, a soft US jobs report, would likely take some pressure off the PBOC. The greenback slipped to an eight-day low against the offshore yuan (~CNH7.2410) but remains above the onshore band (CNY6.9530-CNY7.2368). Monday's fix will be important. 

Europe 

A notable recent development in the eurozone is the outperformance of the periphery compared with Germany and France. This was evident in March PMI. Italy and Spain's composite readings were above 50 while Germany and France remained below. This divergence was also, at least partially, evident underneath today's news that February retail sales fell by 0.5%, a little more than expected. It was also seen in the today's data. French industrial output rose 0.2% in February, half of what was expected. Spain's industrial output rose by 0.7%, well above the 0.2% median forecast in Bloomberg's survey. Germany reported February factory orders eked out a 0.2% increase. The market had expected a 0.7% rise. However, even this small gain was marred by the downward revision to January's series to show a 11.4% drop instead of 11.3%.

Italy's 10-year premium over Germany dropped from over 200 bp last October to almost 120 bp in the middle of last month. That was the least since late 2021. It recovered and reached almost 145 bp earlier this week and is back around 140 bp now. Spain's premium has a similar broad pattern. It premium over Germany peaked last October near 115 bp. It slipped below 80 bp in the middle of March, the least in two years. It widened a little into the end of the quarter but is narrowing again and is near 84 bp. Within the eurozone this year, only Cypriot 10-year bonds have outperformed Italy's BTPs (-7 bp vs. +10 bp). Next week's highlight is the ECB's meeting. The most that can be reasonably hoped for is more guidance from President Lagarde for a cut soon (June meeting next). The swaps market has nearly completely priced out a cut at next week's meeting. It has been last fully discounted at the end of July and has not been more than half priced in since mid-February. 

The UK's manufacturing and services PMI have entered expansion territory above 50 and the construction PMI, released earlier today joined them with a 50.2 reading for the first time since last August. It has risen for four consecutive months. Still, the swaps market has boosted the chances of a June cut to about 80%, among the highest in two months. The highlight next week is February's monthly GDP print. In February, the Bank of England projected 0.1% growth in Q1 24, but this looks a bit conservative. Given the 0.2% expansion in January, it would seem to imply weakness in February and March. 

A little before the last US jobs report, the euro was near $1.0980. The three-day rally through yesterday saw the euro recover from $1.0725 to almost $1.0880. The (61.8%) retracement of the euro's loss since the March high is slightly higher near $1.0885. The euro surrendered its gains and returned to the $1.0830 area. It is consolidating in about a fifth-of-a-cent range below $1.0845. A disappointing US employment report could see the euro test the $1.0920-30 area, while a solid report could perhaps see the $1.0780. There are options for about 1.5 bln euros at $1.08 that expire today. Sterling rose to a two-week high near $1.2685 and met the (38.2%) retracement target ($1.2675) of the decline since the last US jobs report, before reversing lower, falling to about $1.2635. Today, it is in about a third-of-a-cent range below $1.2650. It had bottomed Monday and Tuesday near $1.2540. Sterling had set the Q1 24 high slightly before the last US employment report in early March near $1.29. The next retracement target (50%) is near $1.2715 and disappointing US data could spur a run toward it. Favorable US data could see sterling push below $1.2580. 

America  

The US dollar's setback in recent days is reminiscent of what happened last month. The Dollar Index sold off by about 1.5% in the couple of days leading up to the February jobs report. It set a six-week low (~102.35) shortly before the jobs report before launching a rally that carried it to a new high for the year (~105.10) earlier this week. Since the high, the Dollar Index has pulled back by about 1.2%. Dollar bullish short-term momentum players and trend-followers have likely moved to the sidelines. Like last month, a solid jobs report can see the dollar recover. Some observers talk about a seasonally weak job growth in March, but in the past 20 years, it has been a 50/50 split between times when March nonfarm payroll growth was stronger than February and weaker.

The pandemic may have changed the pattern, and the data are seasonally adjusted. In the last two years, March job growth was weaker than February's by an average of about 255k. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey looks for US businesses to have added around 62k fewer jobs last month than February (213k vs. 275k). Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3%, and that would bring the Q1 increase at an annualized rate to 3.6% after a 4.0% pace in Q4 23 and a 4.4% increase in Q1 23. However, the relationship between nominal wage growth and CPI/PCE deflator is tenuous. Productivity matters, of course, and most economists still seem to be working on assumptions of competitive capitalism instead of what exists today, oligopolies and monopsonies. Moreover, next week's March CPI will likely see the year-over-year headline rate accelerate and the core rate stable or slightly lower. The net effect, we suspect, between the employment and CPI, will do little for the Fed's confidence.

Canada reports its March jobs data as well, but it tends to be overwhelmed by the US report. Canada created an average of about 39k jobs a month in January and February, which is on par with the recent pace (34k in 2022 and 37k in 2023). Of the jobs created this year, about 30k on average were full-time posts, slightly better than the 28k average last year and somewhat softer than the 37k average in 2022. Still, Canada's challenge is that the labor force growth is faster than job creation, resulting in rising unemployment. The unemployment rate was at 5.0% from December 2022 through April 2023. It has risen steadily since then and has been at 5.8% for three of the four months through February. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for it to have ticked up to 5.9% in March.

The US dollar initially extended its recent losses and slipped slightly below CAD1.3480 to record a two-week low. There are options for about $1.25 bln between CAD1.3500 and CAD1.3510 that expire today. However, in the North American afternoon, the greenback staged a broad recovery and set new session highs against slightly above CAD1.3560, leaving a potentially bullish hammer candlestick pattern in its wake. Follow-through gains today has seen the US dollar rise to CAD1.3580. A solid US jobs report could see the recent highs near CAD1.3615. There are options for about $635 mln at CAD1.36 that expire today. The greenback traded below MXN16.50 yesterday for the first time since the end of 2015 but reversed higher to a new session high near MXN16.6150. It has traded between MXN16.55 and MXN16.61 today. This week's high is closer to MXN16.67. The 20-day moving average is around MXN16.68 and the dollar has not above it since the end of February. The dollar had set a new high for the year against the Brazilian real on Wednesday a little above BRL5.09. It reversed lower and settled on the lows. Follow-through selling took the greenback to about BRL5.0050 yesterday before the broad recovery, which lifted the dollar to new session highs above BRL5.05. 

 

Disclaimer 

Read More

Continue Reading

International

MSM Trots Out ‘Bird Flu-Pocalypse’ After Texas Dairy Worker Falls Ill

MSM Trots Out ‘Bird Flu-Pocalypse’ After Texas Dairy Worker Falls Ill

Bird flu is back in the news after a Texas dairy worker tested positive…

Published

on

MSM Trots Out 'Bird Flu-Pocalypse' After Texas Dairy Worker Falls Ill

Bird flu is back in the news after a Texas dairy worker tested positive for the virus in the first documented case of bird-cow-human transmission.

So of course, a cacophony of 'experts' are now warning that a bird flu pandemic could be '100 times worse' than COVID.'

Mentions of "Avian Flu Virus" in the news

"This virus [has been] on the top of the pandemic list for many, many years and probably decades," said Pittsburgh bird-flu researcher Dr. Suresh Kuchipudi, during a recent panel cited by the Daily Mail.

"And now we’re getting dangerously close to this virus potentially causing a pandemic," he continued. "So therefore, in my view, I think this is a virus that has the greatest pandemic threat [that is] playing out in plain sight and globally present."

The Mail also cites pharmaceutical vaccine consultant and BioNiagra founder John Fulton, who said during the same meeting: "This appears to be 100 times worse than COVID — or it could be if it mutates and maintains its high case fatality rate."

"Once it’s mutated to infect humans, we can only hope that the [fatality rate] drops," he added.

Meanwhile there's this Feigl-Ding, who rose to e-prominence during the pandemic as an extreme fear monger:

Approximately 52% of those who have contracted H5N1 since 2003 have died, according to the WHO

Via the Daily Mail

That said, according to CDC Director Mandy Cohen, "the whole  U.S. government is taking this situation very seriously," but the virus does not pose much of a risk to the general public. That said, they did just warn not to drink raw milk.

Another voice calling for calm is David Swayne, who has worked on bird flu cases in animals for decades.

"Right now, for the cattle cases — there is no knowledge, so that's easy for the alarm to be raised," he told the Mail. "There is a huge lack of knowledge that we need to fill."

"Let's look at the facts and look at them with reason, we don't really know that much today because of the knowledge gaps that we need to fill."

Others such as UK-based epidemiologist Dr Francois Balloux posted to X: "'People not professionally involved in pandemic prevention/mitigation being worried/feeling miserable now won't make any material difference to what may hit us, except that their life would suck, far more than it should."

Perhaps that will change in time for the 2024 election if the 'gain-of-function' guys have their way with it.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/04/2024 - 16:40

Read More

Continue Reading

Spread & Containment

Perinatal women of Mexican descent propose solutions to pandemic-related stressors affecting Latinos

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Public policies blocked many families of Mexican descent living in the U.S. from accessing vital services such as food and mental health…

Published

on

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Public policies blocked many families of Mexican descent living in the U.S. from accessing vital services such as food and mental health care during the COVID-19 pandemic, even though these communities experienced some of the highest infection and mortality rates.

Credit: Photo by L. Brian Stauffer

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Public policies blocked many families of Mexican descent living in the U.S. from accessing vital services such as food and mental health care during the COVID-19 pandemic, even though these communities experienced some of the highest infection and mortality rates.

Thirty-eight perinatal women and mothers of young children were interviewed about the challenges they faced during the pandemic and proposed solutions to better meet the needs of their communities during future large-scale crises in a study led by University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign kinesiology and community health professor Sandraluz Lara-Cinisomo.

Co-authors of the study are molecular anthropologist Amy L. Non of the University of California-San Diego; Kimberly D-Anna-Hernandez, a professor of psychology at Marquette University; and U. of I. graduate student Mary Ellen Mendy and undergraduate students Jessica Avalos and Jacqueline Marquez.

The women in the study discussed the stressors they encountered during the pandemic, including their difficulties accessing mental health treatment, child care and food. Their suggestions and insights were used to identify actionable policies and programs that could help meet the needs of Latino communities during future emergencies.

The participants, who were interviewed between September 2021 and December 2022, were part of a longitudinal study that recruited them from a clinic in San Diego, one of the U.S. cities with large Latino populations of Mexican heritage.

The women were about 36 years old on average. Although about 81% of them were born in Mexico, many had resided in the U.S. for 17 years or more. About 31% reported having an annual household income of less than $21,000, while a similar percentage earned $40,000 or more, according to the study.

Lara-Cinisomo said participants faced complex stressors during the pandemic. Half of the women in the study said their families had challenges obtaining food due to loss of income and subsidies such as school lunches, as well as supply chain shortages and consumer stockpiling.

“While early in the pandemic various federal and state programs and policies were deployed to mitigate people’s risks for exposure and enhance families’ economic security, millions of tax-paying families of Mexican descent and other Latino backgrounds were excluded because of restrictions and exclusions set by those programs,” Lara-Cinisomo said.

The researchers found that more than twice as many Spanish speakers reported food-related issues compared with their English-speaking counterparts.

“Policymakers should consider how language barriers increase the risks of Spanish-speaking families losing out on benefits designed to meet their needs, such as CalFresh,” California’s iteration of the federal SNAP food assistance program for low-income people, Lara-Cinisomo said.

“Communicating food and health and safety information in linguistically appropriate media, such as texts, videos or commercials, is vital to ensure accessibility to people with differing literacy and technological skills and should be carefully considered by policymakers.”

Involving trusted sources in disseminating relevant and critical information was also recommended by the participants. For marginalized communities that have experienced historical discrimination and anti-immigrant propaganda, trust in these sources is vital, Lara-Cinisomo said.

“Research has shown that community engagement is critical in emergency preparedness and increases the likelihood of meeting the needs of marginalized communities,” Lara-Cinisomo said. Accordingly, she and her team recommended developing a contingency plan to train culturally and linguistically competent community health workers to cultivate networks of trusted community members to assist in crisis communication efforts.

Some women discussed feeling anxiety about the uncertainties associated with the pandemic, such as lockdowns and conflicting health information. These feelings were exacerbated by employment disruptions, pregnancy, and food access problems, and their concerns extended to family members residing in other households and those living in Mexico, participants told the researchers.

The majority of those interviewed advocated broadening access to food subsidy programs such as WIC and SNAP to offset income losses and food shortages during large-scale crises, along with providing public awareness campaigns about local food banks and assistance programs.

Even though California provides more services for undocumented immigrants — including paid family leave and one year of emergency coverage with mental health services under Medi-Cal, the state’s Medicaid plan, for pregnant women — caring for their mental health needs was a significant problem for many participants. Fifteen women reported needing mental health care, but twice as many of the English-speaking women mentioned these issues compared with their Spanish-speaking counterparts, the researchers found.

The researchers hypothesized that this difference may have been associated with cultural beliefs, with Spanish-speaking women feeling less comfortable disclosing mental health problems because of stigmatization compared with those who spoke English. Or, it may have been that those who spoke Spanish were more resilient or more concerned about immediate needs such as food assistance, the team said.

Participants recommended broadening access to mental health services for mothers and their families, promoting awareness with providers and patients, and disseminating mental health information and resources through videos and other media and via programs such as WIC.

Many of the women — largely those who spoke only Spanish — reported difficulties obtaining personal protective equipment and sanitization supplies because of shortages, consumer stockpiling, and price gouging, in keeping with other studies that showed low-income and marginalized communities were disproportionately affected.

Although the study sample was small, Lara-Cinisomo said it highlighted critical needs for responsive, culturally appropriate policies and programs to ensure the well-being of Mexican-descent perinatal women and mothers of young children during public health crises.

Lara-Cinisomo discussed the team’s findings and study participants’ recommendations during a virtual Briefing on Perinatal Health and Well-being on April 3 hosted by the journal Health Affairs, which published the study.


Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Why rural white Americans’ resentment is a threat to democracy

Rural white people have long held disproportionate power in US politics. But polls suggest their commitments to the American political system are erod…

Published

on

By

Some white Americans are showing signs of disagreeing with key democratic principles. Carol Yepes/Moment via Getty Images

Rural white voters have long enjoyed outsize power in American politics. They have inflated voting power in the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House and the Electoral College.

Although there is no uniform definition of “rural,” and even federal agencies cannot agree on a single standard, roughly 20% of Americans live in rural communities, according to the Census Bureau’s definition. And three-quarters of them – or approximately 15% of the U.S. population – are white.

Since the rise of Jacksonian democracy and the expansion of the vote to all white men in the late 1820s, however, the support of rural white people has been vital to the governing power of almost every major party coalition. Which is why my co-author Paul Waldman and I describe rural white people as America’s “essential minority” in our book “White Rural Rage: The Threat to American Democracy.”

As a political scientist, I’ve written or co-written five books addressing issues of racial politics at some level of government or part of the country. My latest, “White Rural Rage,” seeks to understand the complex intersections of race, place and opinion and the implications they hold for our political system.

The unfortunate fact is that polls suggest many rural white people’s commitment to the American political system is eroding. Even when they are not members of militant organizations, rural white people, as a group, now pose four interconnected threats to the fate of the United States’ pluralist, constitutional democracy.

Although these do not apply to all rural white people, nor exclusively to them in general, when compared with other Americans, rural white people:

  • Express the most racist, least inclusive, most xenophobic, most anti-LGBTQ+ and most anti-immigrant sentiments.
  • Subscribe at the highest rates to conspiracy theories about QAnon, the 2020 presidential election, Barack Obama’s citizenship and COVID-19 vaccines.
  • Support a variety of antidemocratic and unconstitutional positions and exhibit strong attachments to white nationalist and white Christian nationalist movements inimical to secular, constitutional governance.
  • Are most likely to justify, if not call for, force or violence as acceptable alternatives to deliberative, peaceful democracy.

Let’s examine a few data points.

Xenophobia

In a Pew Research Center poll conducted in 2018, 46% of white rural Americans said it is important to live in a diverse community. That’s a lower proportion than urban and suburban dwellers and even nonwhite rural residents.

And in rural areas, fewer than half the people said white people have advantages Black people do not, approve of the legalization of same-sex marriage, and say immigrants make American society stronger.

In addition, Cornell researchers found that rural whites reported feeling less comfortable with gay and lesbian people than urban whites do. And 49% of rural LGBTQ+ people between the ages of 10 and 24 called their own towns “unaccepting” of LGBTQ+ people – nearly twice the rate of suburban and urban LGBTQ+ young people who said the same about their communities.

Conspiracism

Polls in 2020 and 2021 indicated that QAnon supporters are 1.5 times more likely to live in rural areas than urban ones, and 49% of rural residents – 10 points higher than the national average – believe a “deep state” undermines Trump.

Rural residents are also more likely than urban and suburban residents to believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, according to 2021 polling by the Public Religion Research Institute.

And people who live in rural areas are also less confident as a whole than those who live in urban areas that votes will be counted accurately and fairly in their state or across the country, according to a 2022 poll from the Bipartisan Policy Center.

In addition, by our analysis, of the 139 U.S. House members who voted to reject the certification of Joe Biden’s presidential election just hours after a violent mob of Trump supporters rampaged through the Capitol, 103 – 74% – represented either “purely rural” or “rural/suburban” districts, as categorized by Bloomberg’s CityLab project.

Antidemocratic beliefs

A scholarly analysis of multiyear data from the American National Election Studies project finds that rural citizens are “much more likely (than urban residents) to favor restrictions on the press” and to say it would be “helpful if the president could unilaterally work” without regard to Congress or the courts.

In addition, more than half of rural residents surveyed by the Public Religion Research Institute said being a Christian is important to “being truly American” – 10 percentage points more than in surburban or urban areas.

This is one of several signals that rural residents are disproportionately likely to support white Christian nationalism, an ideology that reaches beyond Christian ideas of faith and morality and into government. Its followers want the United States to base its laws on Christian values rather than maintain the centuries-old separation of church and state the founders saw as fundamental to a secular democracy.

Justification of violence

Rural residents are more likely than urban or suburban residents to say the political situation in the country is heading to a point where violence may be necessary to preserve the nation, according to polls from the Public Religion Research Institute in 2021 and the University of Chicago Institute of Politics in 2022.

Of the estimated 21 million Americans who in late 2021 said Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential win was “illegitimate,” according to the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, 30% lived in rural areas. And 27% of Americans who say Trump should be returned to office even if “by force” are rural residents. Those are minority views, but both proportions are significantly higher than the rural proportion of the overall population.

With the 2024 election fast approaching, the views of rural white people are once again of vital importance because they and the members of Congress who represent them disproportionately believe the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump by Joe Biden. A Pew Research Center study found 71% of rural white voters voted for Trump in 2020, so their preference in November will be key to who returns to the White House for a second term.

Thomas F. Schaller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending