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Uptick in mortgage interest rates nudges down California home sales in March, C.A.R. reports

Uptick in mortgage interest rates nudges down California home sales in March, C.A.R. reports
PR Newswire
LOS ANGELES, April 18, 2023

Existing, single-family home sales totaled 281,050 in March on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 1.0 perc…

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Uptick in mortgage interest rates nudges down California home sales in March, C.A.R. reports

PR Newswire

  • Existing, single-family home sales totaled 281,050 in March on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 1.0 percent from February and down 34.2 percent from March 2022.

  • March's statewide median home price was $791,490, up 7.6 percent from February and down 7.0 percent from March 2022.

  • Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 37.8 percent in March.

LOS ANGELES, April 18, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Moderately higher interest rates held California home sales essentially flat in March, while the statewide median home price recorded a healthy increase on a month-to-month basis for the first time in seven months, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Infographic: https://www.car.org/Global/Infographics/2023-03-Sales-and-Price

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 281,050 in March, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the March pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

March's sales pace was down 1.0 percent on a monthly basis from 284,010 in February and down 34.2 percent from a year ago, when a revised 427,040 homes were sold on an annualized basis. Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 300,000-unit pace for the sixth consecutive month. 

"Despite a dip in March home sales, the competitiveness in the housing market continues to heat up, as homes are selling faster, and the sales-to-list-price ratio is improving, all the while when the number of homes available for sale continues to tighten," said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR®. "All signs point to a market with solid demand, which should help bolster sales through the homebuying season."

California's median home price grew for the first time in seven months in March, increasing 7.6 percent from February's $735,480 to $791,490. March's price also was lower on a year-over-year basis for the fifth consecutive month, declining 7.0 percent from the revised $851,130 recorded last March. With home prices rising more sharply than the normal seasonal pattern last year, the market could see larger year-over-year price drops as it moves through the spring home-buying season.

"While home sales continue to hover below the 300,000-unit annualized pace, the market seems to have weathered more aggressive rate hikes and banking failures quite well in the last few weeks," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "If interest rates stabilize or even improve in the next couple of months, home sales should rise during the spring home-buying season, but tight inventory will prevent a rapid rebound."

Other key points from C.A.R.'s March 2023 resale housing report include:

  • At the regional level, all regions except the Central Valley (-27.7 percent) continued to record annual sales declines of more than 30 percent, with the Far North dropping the most at -38.9 percent. Sales in four of the six counties in the region dipped more than 40 percent from a year ago. The San Francisco Bay Area followed closely behind with a sales decrease of 35.5 percent from a year ago, while Southern California (-33.8 percent) and Central Coast (-31.2 percent) both declined sharply from last March.

  • All but one of the 51 counties tracked by C.A.R. experienced a sales drop from a year ago in March, with 35 counties dropping more than 30 percent year-over-year and five counties plummeting more than 50 percent from last March. Extreme weather conditions throughout the state in the past few weeks had a negative impact on the housing market, which contributed to sharp sales declines in some of these counties. Plumas (-77.3 percent) had the largest sales drop in March, followed by Mono (-70.6 percent) and Glenn (-52.9 percent). Amador was the only county with an annual sales increase, with a year-over-year gain of 6.4 percent. The market is gaining momentum, however, as it enters the spring homebuying season. All but one county tracked by C.A.R. posted a sales gain on a month-over-month basis, while sales in 23 counties grew more than 50 percent from February.

  • At the regional level, median home prices dropped from a year ago in all major regions, with prices in three of the five regions declining more than 10 percent year-over-year in March. Home prices in the San Francisco Bay Area continued to drop the most of all regions, even though it was no longer the only region with a double-digit decline. With prices in five counties falling over 10 percent year-over-year, the median price for the Bay Area region was down 12.8 percent from March 2022. The sharp decline is attributable partly to the base effect, as prices surged a year ago when many homebuyers tried to close transactions before rates climbed further. Central Coast (-12.1 percent) and the Far North (-10.1 percent) were the other two regions with a double-digit loss from a year ago, followed by Central Valley (-8.4 percent) and Southern California (-4.0 percent).

  • More than four out of five counties experienced year-over-year price declines in March, with 18 counties falling more than 10 percent on a year-over-year basis. Santa Barbara (-40.8 percent) had the biggest drop of all counties, followed by Mono (-31.8 percent), and Tehama (-29.5 percent). Six counties registered an increase in their median prices from last March, with all but one county growing less than 10 percent. Glenn had the biggest gain in price of all counties with an increase of 15.6 percent, followed by Kings (9.2 percent) and Humboldt (4.7 percent).

  • Following its typical seasonal pattern, housing inventory in California dipped on a monthly basis for the second straight month from 3.2 months in February to 2.2 months in March, the lowest level since May 2022. The statewide unsold inventory index (UII) in March 2023, nevertheless, continued to increase from a year ago, jumping 37.5 percent on a year-over-year basis. The surge in UII was due primarily to low housing demand as existing home sales remained below the annualized 300,000 benchmark level.

  • All price ranges posted an increase in UII from a year ago by 28 percent or more, with the $1 million and up gaining the most (50 percent), followed by the $500,000 - $749,000 price range (25.0 percent), the $750,000 - $999,000 (23.5 percent) and the sub $500,000 (16.7 percent).

  • With sales remaining 30 percent or more below last year's level for more than half of the counties in California, active listings continued to surge year-over-year in March. Twenty-one counties recorded a double-digit, year-over-year gain in March as compared to 43 counties in February. Marin registered the largest yearly growth of 52.5 percent, followed by Kings (50.7 percent) and Riverside (46.3 percent). Meanwhile, 20 counties recorded a decline in active listings from a year ago as sales growth outpaced the gain in new active listings in some of these counties. Mono (52.9 percent) had the biggest year-over-year decline in March, followed by Alameda (-45.3 percent) and Contra Costa (-43.2 percent).

  • Despite the increase in overall active listings in March, housing inventory is much tighter than what the yearly growth suggests. While new active listings added in March improved 27.9 percent on a month-to-month basis from the prior month, the figure also declined 30 percent year-over-year from the same month in 2022. The drop in new active listings, in fact, was the largest dip since May 2020 when the pandemic shutdown took place.

  • The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 19 days in March and 8 days in March 2022.

  • C.A.R.'s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio* was 99.1 percent in March 2023 and 103.9 percent in March 2022.

  • The statewide average price per square foot** for an existing single-family home was $388, down from $418 in March a year ago.

  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.54 percent in March, up from 4.17 percent in March 2022, according to Freddie Mac.

Note: The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower end or the upper end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

*Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its original list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 50 counties.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 200,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

 

March 2023 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)


March 2023

Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes

Sales

State/Region/County

March

2023

Feb.

2023


March

2022


Price MTM%

Chg

Price YTY%

Chg

 Sales MTM%

Chg

 Sales YTY%

Chg

Calif. Single-family home

$791,490

$735,480

r

$851,130

r

7.6 %

-7.0 %

-1.0 %

-34.2 %

Calif. Condo/Townhome

$640,000

$615,000


$660,000

r

4.1 %

-3.0 %

39.4 %

-36.8 %

Los Angeles Metro Area

$735,000

$710,000


$770,000


3.5 %

-4.5 %

39.1 %

-34.2 %

Central Coast

$922,500

$856,000


$1,050,000


7.8 %

-12.1 %

44.0 %

-31.2 %

Central Valley

$453,550

$449,000


$495,000


1.0 %

-8.4 %

37.5 %

-27.7 %

Far North

$355,000

$369,000


$395,000


-3.8 %

-10.1 %

35.7 %

-38.9 %

Inland Empire

$555,000

$549,900


$580,000


0.9 %

-4.3 %

31.0 %

-39.6 %

San Francisco Bay Area

$1,228,000

$1,050,000


$1,408,000

r

17.0 %

-12.8 %

59.9 %

-35.5 %

Southern California

$770,000

$745,000


$802,500


3.4 %

-4.0 %

38.3 %

-33.8 %











San Francisco Bay Area










Alameda

$1,225,000

$1,100,000


$1,430,000


11.4 %

-14.3 %

52.2 %

-36.8 %

Contra Costa

$852,500

$760,000


$965,900


12.2 %

-11.7 %

58.6 %

-42.7 %

Marin

$1,600,000

$1,447,500


$1,720,000

r

10.5 %

-7.0 %

31.6 %

-39.4 %

Napa

$890,000

$830,000


$965,000

r

7.2 %

-7.8 %

89.5 %

-32.7 %

San Francisco

$1,700,000

$1,465,000


$2,060,000


16.0 %

-17.5 %

57.3 %

-37.9 %

San Mateo

$1,860,000

$2,080,000


$2,280,000


-10.6 %

-18.4 %

43.5 %

-37.7 %

Santa Clara

$1,700,000

$1,500,000


$1,950,000


13.3 %

-12.8 %

97.1 %

-31.9 %

Solano

$585,000

$555,000


$610,000

r

5.4 %

-4.1 %

51.3 %

-21.3 %

Sonoma

$829,000

$774,500


$829,000

r

7.0 %

0.0 %

43.8 %

-31.8 %

Southern California










Los Angeles

$718,370

$726,870


$781,050


-1.2 %

-8.0 %

43.2 %

-30.2 %

Orange

$1,250,000

$1,159,000


$1,305,000


7.9 %

-4.2 %

43.8 %

-30.0 %

Riverside

$612,000

$595,000


$620,000


2.9 %

-1.3 %

35.8 %

-37.6 %

San Bernardino

$475,000

$466,500


$475,000


1.8 %

0.0 %

22.1 %

-43.4 %

San Diego

$915,000

$875,000


$950,000


4.6 %

-3.7 %

34.9 %

-32.1 %

Ventura

$849,000

$805,000


$914,000


5.5 %

-7.1 %

55.3 %

-36.3 %

Central Coast










Monterey

$900,000

$775,500


$911,000


16.1 %

-1.2 %

53.0 %

-27.8 %

San Luis Obispo

$895,000

$795,000


$903,000


12.6 %

-0.9 %

43.2 %

-23.6 %

Santa Barbara

$769,000

$860,000


$1,300,000


-10.6 %

-40.8 %

25.2 %

-41.0 %

Santa Cruz

$1,205,000

$1,201,000


$1,600,000


0.3 %

-24.7 %

64.9 %

-31.9 %

Central Valley










Fresno

$409,500

$385,000


$415,000


6.4 %

-1.3 %

31.1 %

-24.7 %

Glenn

$370,000

$295,000


$320,000


25.4 %

15.6 %

14.3 %

-52.9 %

Kern

$365,000

$375,000


$369,750


-2.7 %

-1.3 %

36.2 %

-28.6 %

Kings

$355,000

$352,000


$325,000


0.9 %

9.2 %

51.0 %

-8.3 %

Madera

$417,000

$378,000


$430,000


10.3 %

-3.0 %

21.1 %

-40.4 %

Merced

$400,000

$381,950


$385,000


4.7 %

3.9 %

65.9 %

-38.1 %

Placer

$641,000

$633,750


$701,730


1.1 %

-8.7 %

28.2 %

-22.7 %

Sacramento

$500,000

$499,000


$560,000


0.2 %

-10.7 %

33.2 %

-31.9 %

San Benito

$750,000

$730,000


$835,000


2.7 %

-10.2 %

10.7 %

-31.1 %

San Joaquin

$544,550

$491,500


$550,000


10.8 %

-1.0 %

65.9 %

-17.5 %

Stanislaus

$449,000

$429,900


$470,500


4.4 %

-4.6 %

37.0 %

-34.3 %

Tulare

$344,000

$340,000


$360,980


1.2 %

-4.7 %

48.2 %

-22.6 %

Far North










Butte

$421,650

$405,000


$465,000


4.1 %

-9.3 %

4.0 %

-42.2 %

Lassen

$249,000

$212,500


$243,000


17.2 %

2.5 %

150.0 %

-51.6 %

Plumas

$310,000

$305,000


$391,500


1.6 %

-20.8 %

-37.5 %

-77.3 %

Shasta

$365,000

$350,000


$390,000


4.3 %

-6.4 %

48.8 %

-36.4 %

Siskiyou

$240,000

$208,000


$308,000


15.4 %

-22.1 %

58.8 %

-42.6 %

Tehama

$283,180

$332,000


$401,880


-14.7 %

-29.5 %

45.5 %

-5.9 %

Other Calif. Counties










Amador

$414,940

$429,500


$440,000


-3.4 %

-5.7 %

66.7 %

6.4 %

Calaveras

$438,000

$437,500


$492,000


0.1 %

-11.0 %

50.0 %

-52.6 %

Del Norte

$400,000

$300,000


$398,000


33.3 %

0.5 %

87.5 %

-50.0 %

El Dorado

$625,000

$619,000


$750,000


1.0 %

-16.7 %

28.6 %

-46.7 %

Humboldt

$450,000

$417,250


$430,000


7.8 %

4.7 %

66.0 %

-26.5 %

Lake

$351,250

$305,000


$370,000


15.2 %

-5.1 %

73.7 %

-28.3 %

Mariposa

$399,500

$353,000


$530,000


13.2 %

-24.6 %

220.0 %

-30.4 %

Mendocino

$492,500

$495,500


$509,000

r

-0.6 %

-3.2 %

22.2 %

-37.7 %

Mono

$750,000

$802,500


$1,100,000


-6.5 %

-31.8 %

150.0 %

-70.6 %

Nevada

$539,500

$475,000


$559,000


13.6 %

-3.5 %

22.4 %

-41.8 %

Sutter

$385,000

$415,000


$460,000


-7.2 %

-16.3 %

18.6 %

-35.4 %

Tuolumne

$389,500

$361,000


$450,000


7.9 %

-13.4 %

132.3 %

-25.0 %

Yolo

$618,030

$550,000


$657,000


12.4 %

-5.9 %

57.1 %

-18.9 %

Yuba

$425,000

$435,950


$432,500


-2.5 %

-1.7 %

117.5 %

-16.3 %

r = revised

 

March 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)


March 2023

Unsold Inventory Index

Median Time on Market

State/Region/County

March

2023

Feb.

2023


March

2022


March

2023

Feb.

2023


March

2022


Calif. Single-family home

2.2

3.2


1.6

r

19.0

28.0


8.0


Calif. Condo/Townhome

2.0

2.9


1.4


17.0

23.0


7.0


Los Angeles Metro Area

2.3

3.4


1.7


22.0

34.0


9.0


Central Coast

2.3

3.5


1.8


14.0

21.0


8.0


Central Valley

2.0

2.9


1.6


19.0

27.0


7.0


Far North

3.6

5.0


2.6


29.0

45.0


14.0


Inland Empire

2.7

3.7


1.6


31.0

45.0


10.0


San Francisco Bay Area

1.6

2.7


1.4


14.0

17.0


8.0


Southern California

2.2

3.2


1.6


19.0

30.5


8.0













San Francisco Bay Area











Alameda

1.1

2.0


1.4


13.0

12.0


8.0


Contra Costa

1.2

2.5


1.2


13.0

18.0


7.0


Marin

2.3

2.4


1.1

r

16.5

30.5


9.0


Napa

3.3

5.8


2.2

r

32.0

29.0


25.0

r

San Francisco

2.4

3.4


1.6


15.0

18.0


12.0


San Mateo

1.8

2.4


1.4


11.0

12.0


7.0


Santa Clara

1.4

2.9


1.4


9.0

9.0


7.0


Solano

1.7

2.7


1.0

r

35.0

57.0


15.0

r

Sonoma

2.2

3.2


1.6

r

30.0

55.5


23.0


Southern California











Los Angeles

2.2

3.4


1.8


19.0

30.0


8.0


Orange

2.0

2.9


1.6


13.0

23.0


6.0


Riverside

2.6

3.6


1.5


32.0

45.5


11.0


San Bernardino

3.0

3.8


1.8


29.0

43.0


10.0


San Diego

1.7

2.3


1.4


12.0

17.0


7.0


Ventura

2.0

3.3


1.6


28.0

34.5


17.0


Central Coast











Monterey

2.4

3.9


1.7


16.0

23.0


9.0


San Luis Obispo

2.6

3.7


2.1


14.0

16.0


6.0


Santa Barbara

1.8

3.0


1.5


14.0

20.0


8.0


Santa Cruz

2.3

3.5


1.8


13.0

23.0


9.0


Central Valley











Fresno

2.4

3.3


1.8


18.0

24.0


7.0


Glenn

5.3

6.0


2.4


27.0

46.0


13.0


Kern

2.0

2.8


1.6


21.0

31.0


7.0


Kings

2.3

3.7


1.6


18.0

39.0


6.5


Madera

4.3

5.0


2.2


21.0

32.0


10.0


Merced

2.7

5.0


1.9


16.0

25.0


9.5


Placer

2.0

2.5


1.6


23.0

41.0


6.0


Sacramento

1.5

2.1


1.4


15.0

22.0


7.0


San Benito

3.0

3.5


2.3


25.0

38.5


12.0


San Joaquin

1.9

2.7


1.6


25.0

34.0


7.0


Stanislaus

2.0

2.6


1.5


15.0

24.0


7.0


Tulare

2.1

3.4


1.8


21.5

29.0


8.0


Far North











Butte

3.1

3.4


2.1


28.5

35.0


8.0


Lassen

5.3

15.7


2.8


92.0

73.0


99.0


Plumas

15.0

10.1


5.6


167.0

85.0


57.5


Shasta

3.1

4.5


2.2


26.0

36.0


12.0


Siskiyou

5.7

9.0


3.9


29.0

68.0


14.5


Tehama

3.6

5.5


4.2


27.5

57.5


34.5


Other Calif. Counties











Amador

3.2

4.9


3.1


31.0

42.0


9.0


Calaveras

4.0

5.4


2.3


62.0

91.0


40.0


Del Norte

5.5

9.3


2.7


116.0

59.5


88.0


El Dorado

2.8

3.4


2.0


27.0

47.0


11.0


Humboldt

4.0

7.1


2.9


35.0

29.5


9.0


Lake

4.6

7.3


3.5


48.5

85.0


38.0


Mariposa

3.8

12.0


3.6


96.0

25.0


11.5


Mendocino

7.5

8.8


5.2

r

86.0

119.0


57.0

r

Mono

3.6

12.5


2.3


59.0

130.5


64.0


Nevada

3.0

3.4


2.5


31.5

56.0


9.0


Sutter

2.4

3.0


1.6


25.0

22.0


8.0


Tuolumne

2.3

4.9


2.5


94.0

83.0


16.5


Yolo

2.1

2.4


1.4


15.0

27.0


7.0


Yuba

2.5

5.0


2.0


23.0

30.0


7.0


r = revised

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/uptick-in-mortgage-interest-rates-nudges-down-california-home-sales-in-march-car-reports-301800720.html

SOURCE CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.)

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Aging at AACR Annual Meeting 2024

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging…

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BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Credit: Impact Journals

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals

Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”

Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Aging team.

About Aging-US:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed and archived by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed CentralWeb of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

  • Aging X
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  • Aging YouTube
  • Aging LinkedIn
  • Aging SoundCloud
  • Aging Pinterest
  • Aging Reddit

Click here to subscribe to Aging publication updates.

For media inquiries, please contact media@impactjournals.com.


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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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