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Update: 92 Analysts – Yes, 92 – Now Forecast Gold Going To $3,000 & Beyond!

Many analysts are projecting that gold will be going at least as high as $3,000/ozt over the next few years. One analyst even claimed that gold will spike…

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More and more analysts are projecting that gold will be going at least as high as $3,000/ozt over the next few years. One even claims that gold will spike up to $87,500/ozt.! Below is an updated list of their names and stated rationale for each forecast.

By Lorimer Wilson, editor of munKNEE.com – Your Key To Making Money!

  1. Jim Sinclair*: $50,000 in 2025 and to $87,500 by 2032
    • Sinclair had said that in video years ago that, with so many U.S. Dollars being printed to uphold the economy as a result of COVID-19, that Gold would rise to $50,000/ozt. (i.e. go “straight up” in Sinclair’s words) at the end of the 45-year gold cycle which is coming up in 2025 and rise up to $87,500/ozt. by the end of 2032. Source 
    • * Sinclair passed away in September of 2023.
  2. Stephen Leeb: +$35,000 by 2032
    • “I wouldn’t be surprised if everything related to commodities performs even better this time around – albeit with sharper volatility – than in the earlier decade…[and that goes for] my nominal 10-year target of $35,000 [as well].” Source
  3. Egon von Greyerz: $35,000 (No date specified)
    • I would not be surprised to see a 0.1 [Dow/Gold] ratio. That could lead to 3,500 Dow and $35,000 gold.” Source
  4. Erik Lytikainen: $25,000 by 2030
    • “We will not be surprised to see $25,000 per troy ounce of gold by the year 2030.  It will likely be a volatile ride higher, with large drawdowns along the way.” Source
  5. Martin Armstrong: $25,000 (No date specified)
    • “Gold should theoretically sell for $25,000/ozt., given the monetary prolificacy since 1980”…”  Source
  6. Pierre Lassonde: $25,000 by 2049
    • Lassonde says gold could hit $25,000 in 26 years. Source
  7. Avi Gilburt: $25,000 over the next decade plus
    • “I think the math shows gold futures can, and will, surpass $25,000  over the next decade plus.” Source
  8.  Hugo Salinas Price: $22,000 – $50,000 (No date specified)
    • Price says the current melt-down of the world’s debt bubble is likely to continue and he believes that the salvaging of all debt and derivatives might require a gold price as high as between $22,000 and $50,000 per troy ounce.  Source
  9. Frank Barbera: $20,000 to $50,000 sometime between 2032 and 2037
    • Barbera sees precious metals…starting a new secular bull market that could last 10 to 15 years. He sees potential for gold to go as high as $20,000/ozt. or even $50,000 ozt. in that period. Source
  10. Goldrunner: $20,000 between mid-2028 and end of 2029
    • As a result of the recent massive paper money printing, our chart work suggests that gold could possibly spike up to as high as $20,000 per troy ounce – or even a bit higher – some time between mid-2028 and the end of 2029.” Source
  11. Peter Schiff: $20,000 (No date specified)
    • The value of gold could rise tenfold and hit $20,000 per troy ounce in the event of a collapse of confidence in the US dollar and runaway inflation.  Source
  12. Briton Hill: $20,000 sometime between 2026 and 2031
    • “You can’t produce trillions of dollars with 0% interest rates and not introduce inflation. Long-term, we could be entering a cycle similar to the 1970s, where the precious metal sector rose by thousands of percentage points, and if we see something like that happen again in the next 5-10 years, we could easily see…$20,000 gold.” Source
  13. Addison Wiggin: $12,000+ (No date specified)
    • “The gold coverage ratio has risen above 100% twice during 20th century,” most recently at gold’s 1980 peak. “Were this to happen today, the value of an ounce of gold would exceed $12,000.”  Source
  14. Nick Barisheff:: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • Barisheff, in his book, $10,000 Gold, argues that gold’s value will continue to climb, and does so by showing rather than telling; encouraging investors to apply core principles and wide-spectrum analysis that make the case for gold’s rise to $10,000 an ounce or higher. Source
    • Barisheff passed away in September, 2023.
  15. Leigh Goehring: $10,000-$15,000 by 2027-28
    • “Our target is between $10,000-$15,000 per troy ounce.,,[by] 2027-28.” Source
  16.  James Rickards: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “$10,000 per troy ounce is not pie in the sky. It’s not a number I pulled out of a hat to get headlines. It’s the actual mathematical implied non-deflationary price of gold.”  Source
  17. Daniel Oliver: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “The money to push gold over $10,000 per troy ounce has already been printed and now they are going to print more…No doubt strong fiscal and monetary intervention may extend its life for a time, but then the ultimate price objective for gold will then be markedly higher.”  Source
  18. Max Keiser: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • To deal with the disaster of “trash fiat money” choking the global economy, a new gold standard will need to be introduced “and to make it work, we will see gold’s price top $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  19. Adam O’Dell: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “The price is guaranteed to hit near $10,000/ozt..”  Source
  20. David Smith: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “Gold could reach US$10,000 per troy ounce by the end of the bull market.” Source
  21. Bob Kirtley: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “My target has been $10,000/ozt since June 2006, so at that point, an exit strategy will be executed, hopefully with some handsome profits.” Source
  22. Arthur Hayes: +$10,000 (No date specified)
    • He argues that central banks will choose to load up on gold instead of dollars causing gold to rise beyond $10,000/ozt..  Source
  23. Chris Waltzek: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • Waltzek maintains that $10,000 gold may merely be the opening salvo of an explosive new bull market for PMs. Source
  24.  Willem Middelkoop: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “Once gold starts to run, and especially in a reevaluation scenario, it will go up 5x, 8x, 10x, so expect gold to move to $10,000.” Source
  25. James Puplava: $10,000 by 2030
    • Gold trading above $10,000 and silver near $300 is where President of Financial Sense Wealth Management, James Puplava sees prices later this decade, according to his Big Picture Update titled: Unsustainable. Source
  26. Gov Capital: $8,531 by 2025
    • “5 year gold forecast: $8530.74/ozt.” Source
  27. Florian Grummes: $8,000 to $9,000 sometime between 2025 and 2030
    • “We could end up having gold at $8,000 to $9,000 per troy ounce in five to 10 years.” Source
  28. Robin Griffiths: $8,000 (No date specified)
    • Griffiths says $8,000 gold is not unreasonable because China and India are becoming more dominant and to them, gold is real money.  Source
  29. Graham Summers: $8,000 (No date specified)
    • “Gold first rallied about 630% from 2003-2011. It then corrected about 43% before bottoming in 2015 at $1,060/ozt.. If it follows a similar second leg up this time around, it’s going to ~$8,000 per troy ounce before it peaks.”  Source
  30.  Jan Nieuwenhuijs: $8,000 to $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “A long-term gold valuation model, which assumes gold will account for the majority of international reserves, suggests the gold price to exceed $8,000 in the coming decade…and if central banks stockpile 51% of their reserves in gold, the price of gold would reach $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  31. Hubert Moolman: $7,758 (No date specified)
    • “In my opinion, it is virtually guaranteed that gold will again catch up with the Dow’s performance since 1913, and significantly surpass it just like in the 70s. This means we will likely see gold reach $7,758/ozt. (in the near future) and eventually go on to reach multiples of that high.” Source
  32. AG Thorson: $7,500 – $10,000 by end of 2030
    • “By the end of this decade, we expect gold to reach $7,500 – $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  33. Chris Vermeulen: $7,400 by 2027
  34. Charlie Morris: $7,166 by the end of 2029
    • :A bullish target of $7,166/ozt. is both logical and plausible.”  Source
  35. Mike McGlone: $7,000 by 2025
    • “From 2001-2011, gold advanced about 7.5 times, which if repeated would bring it to around $7,000/ozt. in 2025.” Source
  36. Dominic Frisby: $5,700 (no date specified)
    • “At $1,920/oz gold is a lot cheaper today than it was when it was $1,920/oz back in 2011. It’s a third of the price. To get back to those equivalent levels, assuming no change in the price of the S&P500, gold would have to triple. I like the sound of $5,700/oz gold!” Source
  37. Equity Management Academy: $5,500 in 2024
    • “Gold will then hit the delusion phase and in a new paradigm gold will hit $5,500 in 2024. After that high, gold will enter another bull trap and fear will drive gold down below $4,000. Gold will then return to its mean at about $1,500 to $2,000.” Source
  38. Chris Wood: $5,386 (No date specified)
    • “The gold price of US$850/ozt. at the peak of the last secular bull market in gold in January 1980 was then equivalent to 9.9% of US disposable income per capita. The gold price is now just 3.6% of US disposable income per capita. Therefore, to reach 9.9% of US disposable income per capita means gold should rise to US$5,386/ozt..” Source
  39. Scott Minerd: $5,000 to $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “As chaotic price swings of the crypto world push investors back into gold and silver, they will start to build momentum, with the ultimate gold price target set at $5,000-$10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  40. Moe Zulfiqar: $5,000 by 2030
    • ” It wouldn’t be shocking to see gold at $5,000 per troy ounce, or more, by 2030. ” Source
  41. Rob McEwen: $5,000 (No date specified)
    • The founder of Goldcorp Inc., McEwen predicts that gold will soar to $5,000 a troy ounce, bolstered by a weaker dollar and waning demand for trendy assets like pot stocks. Source
  42. J.C. Parets: $5,000 (no date specified)
    • Parets sees the price of gold bullion heading towards $5,000 a troy ounce. Source
  43. Michael Lee: $5,000 (no date specified)
    • “We’re on the cusp of a breakout where gold can go up to $5,000. I think the dollar is getting near its peak. Once you see that dollar reversal, once gold gets above $2,000, you could really see it start to take off…considering the amount of money we print, I have no idea why gold is not above $4,000 right now.” Source 
  44. Victor Dergunov: $5,000 by 2024
    • “Gold at $5,000/ozt. in 3-5 years seems plausible, and it is likely to continue to go higher after that.” Source
  45. Dan Popescu: $5,000 by 2025
    • “Gold price could break above $5,000/ozt. in the next 5 years.” Source
  46. David Morgan: $5,000 before the end of the decade
    • “Gold could hit $5,000/ozt., especially as the greenback loses purchasing power.” Source
  47. Ralph Wakerly: $5,000 sometime between 2025 and 2028
    • Believes gold could easily reach $5,000/ozt., maybe more, within 3-6 years. Source
  48. Brian Whitfield: $5,000 by 2030
    • “I feel I am safe, and being conservative, in saying that gold should be trading between $3000 – $5000 per troy ounce in ten years. Should the US dollar fail and/or the US dollar loses the coveted global reserve currency status and/or even the loss of the petrodollar, gold could hit these level far sooner.” Source
  49. Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark Valek: $4,800 to $8,900 by 2030
    • “The proprietary valuation model shows a gold price of $4,800/ozt. at the end of this decade, even with conservative calibration. Should money supply growth develop in a similar inflationary manner to that of the 1970s, a gold price of $8,900/ozt. is conceivable by 2030.” Source
  50. Juerg Kiener: $4,000 in 2023
    • Gold prices could surge to $4,000 per ounce in 2023 as interest rate hikes and recession fears keep markets volatile. Source
  51. Jason Hamlin: $4,000 to $8,000 by 2025
    • “We fully expect to see the gold price close out the year 2025 somewhere between $4,000 and $8,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  52. Rick Rule: $4,000 – $6,000 by 2027
    • Rule says that in past bull cycles, gold has climbed at least seven-fold, and that it is very likely that gold will double or triple by five years’ time. Source
  53. Stan Bharti: $4,000-$5,000 in this cycle
    • Believes gold is going to between $4,000-$5,000/ozt. in this cycle. Source
  54. Frank Holmes: $4,000 by 2023
    • “The yellow metal is set to rally in the same fashion as in the aftermath of the last recession and, if cycles are exactly the same, gold could go to $4,000/ozt.”. Source
  55. Michael Cuggino: $4,000 (No date specified)
    • Cuggino says it would “not be an unreasonable move” for gold to breach $4,000/ozt..  Source
  56. Jordan Roy-Byrne: $4,000 by end of 2024
    • “Gold will hit my $4,000 target by the end of 2024.” Source
  57. GoldPriceForecasts.com: $4,000 in 2031. Source
  58. Robert Kiyosaki: $3,800 in 2023; $5,000 by 2025
    • “Giant crash coming. Depression possible. Fed forced to print billions in fake money. By 2025 gold at $5,000, silver at $500, and bitcoin at $500,000. Why? Because faith in U.S. dollar, fake money, will be destroyed. Gold & silver [are] God’s money. Bitcoin [is] people’s $”. Source
  59. Michele Schneider: $3,000-$3,500 by 2024; $5,000 by 2025
    • “Every time we look at the price of gold, we take one step closer to realizing our prediction of the $3000-$3500 price target by 2024 and not ruling out a trip to $5000 by 2025.” Source
  60. Don Durrett: $3,000 to $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “My price target for gold is somewhere between $3,000 and $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  61. Investors Alley: $3,000 -$10,000 by 2028
    • “Given the current environment of rising inflation, negative real yields, a weaker dollar, and ongoing monetary dilution, gold should rise to $3,000 -$10,000/ozt. in 5 years time.” Source
  62. Jeff Clark: $3,000 to $10,000 by 2025
      • “Potential 5-year high: $3,000 to $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  63. Geraldo Del Real: $3,000 to $5,000 (No date specified)
    • “I actually think $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce is very reasonable.” Source
  64. Thomas Kaplan: $3,000 to $5,000 by 2030
    • “Gold prices could rally as high as $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce within a decade.” Source
  65. David Rosenberg: $3,000 to $5,000 (No date specified)
    • “A $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce target is justified based on the facts we have today.”  Source
  66. Diego Parrilla: $3,000 to $5,000 sometime between 2023 and 2025
    • “Unprecedented monetary stimulus is fueling asset bubbles and corporate debt addiction — rendering interest-rate hikes impossible without an economic crash. In the ensuing market mania gold could rise to $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce in the next three to five years.” Source
  67. Kirk Spano: $3,000 to $5,000 by 2025
    • “$3,000/ozt. mid-decade [with] upside potential to $5,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  68. Shaun Djie: $3,000 to $4,000 by the end of 2029
    • “In the next 10 years, gold will continue to be volatile. Gold could trade anywhere between the levels of $3,000 or $4,000 per troy ounce in the next ten years given how much cash will be potentially put into the economy.” Source
  69. Adam Hamilton: $3,450 (No date specified)
    • “Gold prices ought to at least double before this raging inflation runs its course, which would carry it up around $3,450 sometime in the coming years!” Source
  70. Jan van Eck: $3,400 (No date specified)
    • Jan van Eck, Van Eck Associates CEO, has a target for gold of $3,400 an ounce, based on the idea that deflationary market environments with similar levels of government stimulus and systemic risk have been bullish for gold in the past. Source
  71. Joe Foster: $3,200 to $3,400 (No date specified)
    • “We…believe this to be a deflationary cycle and both recent deflationary gold bull markets suggest that a price over $3,000 per troy ounce is reasonable. In fact, if one believes, as we do, that the current central bank stimulus to fight the impacts of the COVID-19 virus, along with elevated levels of systemic risks, are similar to those during the global financial crisis, then $3,400/ozt. may be the target for this bull market.” Source
  72. Charles Gibson: $3,281 (No date specified)
    • “Since 1967, the price of gold has shown an extremely strong (0.909) correlation with the total U.S. monetary base. The more dollars that either are, or could be, in circulation, the higher the expected gold price. With the total US monetary base now closing in on US$5.5tn the gold price could very reasonably be expected to rise to as high as US$3,281/ozt.” Source
  73. Eric Fry: $3,000 to $4,000 (No date specified)
    • ‘When this ballgame ends, gold with be trading for at least $3,000 a troy ounce, and an extra-inning affair would not surprise me — lifting the gold price past $4,000/ozt..” Source
  74. WingCapital Investments: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “Using the post-2008 bull market as a guideline during which gold more than doubled within the ensuing 3 years, $3,000/ozt. would be a reasonable long-term target in our opinion.” Source
  75. Brian Lundin: $3,000 by 2024
    • “I think we’ll set a new record in real terms, exceeding $3,000/ozt., by 2024, or so.” Source
  76. Byron King: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “I think Bank of America is on track. I don’t think there’s any question gold will see $3,000/ozt.. As with all things in life, it’s just a question of how long it will take.” Source
  77.  Ben Morris and Drew McConnell: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “$3,000 per troy ounce isn’t a long shot.” Source
  78.  Stewart Thomson: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • Queen Gold is assured of launching above the key $2,000/ozt. price zone, ready to begin a rocket blast towards my medium-term $3,000/ozt. target!”  Source
  79. John Ing: $3,000+ (No date specified)
    • “We expect gold to trade higher than $3,000 a troy ounce due to a lower greenback and solvency concerns.”  Source
  80. SomaBull: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “The money supply is quickly heading to levels that would support a $3,000/ozt. gold price well in excess of fair value by the time this bull market is exhausted.” Source
  81. Adam Trexler: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “With inflation coming, we’ll see gold over $2,500/ozt. in real dollar terms but we’ll see a devaluing of the dollar…[and] if you see 10% inflation, the dollar number value of gold could be much higher. I don’t think $3,000/ozt. gold is impossible and, if we see a hyperinflation scenario, it could be significantly higher.”  Source
  82. Lawrence Lepard: $3,000 by mid-2024
    • Lepard“is betting that gold hits $3,000 within the next two years. Source
  83. Tony Dobra: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • Dobra believes the situation in Ukraine should see gold topping $2,100/ozt. later in 2023 and then that, anything is possible with $3,000/ozt. more likely than not. Source
  84. Trevor Gerszt: $3,000 by 2025
    • Gerszt believes the prospect for $3,000 gold by mid-decade is not outlandish. Source
  85. Clem Chambers: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “As many gold bulls remain confused about why gold isn’t already heading for $3,000, the question really is, what can possibly stop it? The Federal Reserve’s tightening must be in the price, so all that is left is the open questions of European conflict and the length of time that inflation will run hot.”  Source
  86.  David Garofalo: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “Gold’s all-time peak in real terms was actually achieved in 1981 when the nominal gold price was $850 an ounce, that would be $3,000 an ounce in 2021 dollars. That’s what I think I see in this cycle.”  Source
  87. Bloomberg Intelligence: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “There is a good chance for gold to even reach $3,000 an ounce during this bull run, according to our charts.” Source
  88. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank: $3,000 in 2023
    • Not only is the Fed expecting to end its tightening cycle, but the threat of a global recession will force central banks to pump liquidity back into global financial markets which should drive gold prices to at least $3,000 in 2023. Source
  89. Zach Scheidt: $3,000 in 2023
    • ‘Lower rates could trigger a perfect environment for gold to trade up to $3,000 (or even higher).” Source
  90. Mike Fuljenz: $2,500 to $3,000+ in 2023
    • “My conservative estimate would put it between $2,500 an ounce and just over $3,000 an ounce but it wouldn’t hurt my feelings to see it even higher, so now is the time to buy gold and silver. Source 
  91. Nouriel Roubini: $3,000 by 2028 
    • “Gold to rise by 10 percent per year over five years, resulting in a gold price of over $3,000 per ounce by 2028, an overall return of 60 percent.” Source
  92. Chris Kimble: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “If/When Gold breaks above $2,000, it will clear the way for a rally towards $3,000. Wow! Stay tuned!” Source

What do you think of the above price forecasts? Have your say in the “Comments” section below. Also, if I have missed other analyst forecasts (they must be within the last year) please mentioned them below and I will include them in a future article.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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