International
UK Government Launches Multi-Front Attack On Freedom Of Expression Under Guise Of National Security
UK Government Launches Multi-Front Attack On Freedom Of Expression Under Guise Of National Security
Authored by Patrick Cockburn via Counterpunch.org,
Matt Hancock’s bungling effort to conceal his affair with Gina Coladangelo may give…
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Authored by Patrick Cockburn via Counterpunch.org,
Matt Hancock’s bungling effort to conceal his affair with Gina Coladangelo may give hope to some that all government attempts to keep information from the public will be equally futile.
Unfortunately, the government has launched a carefully targeted multi-front offensive to hide its activities more effectively. Among measures being considered or already under way are a reformed Official Secrets Act that will conflate investigative journalism and whistleblowing with espionage. On another front, the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) is being crippled by rejecting requests and under-resourcing. At an individual level, ministers and senior officials escape scrutiny by using encrypted messaging services that can make conversations disappear from the record.
Hancock himself was apparently so concerned over the contents of his emails that he used a private email account. Any enquiry into the test and trace debacle or the mass deaths in care homes may find it difficult to discover with whom the former health secretary was in contact.
In the last year, the rejection of requests for information from central government under the FOIA have soared to 50 per cent compared to 15 per cent when it was first introduced.
“The importance of FOIA is that it is a symbol of transparency which is why politicians hate it so much,” says Ben Worthy, a senior lecturer at Birkbeck specialising in transparency and freedom of information.
He says that governments do not dare to abolish the act, but they can defang it by across-the-board rejections, deliberately long delays or simple non-compliance.
Most threatening of all to the public knowing what the government is doing are proposed changes in the Official Secrets Act which would treat journalists, whistleblowers and leakers as if they were spies. A little-noticed 67-page consultative paper issued in May by the Home Office and titled Legislation to Counter State Threats (Hostile State Activity)says anybody revealing information that the government chooses to label as a state secret would be liable for prosecution. The papers defines espionage particularly broadly as “the covert process of obtaining sensitive confidential information that is not normally publicly available”.
Critics say the proposed legislation would leave journalists and others facing the threat of 14 years in prison for publishing whatever the government may say is damaging to national security. The burden of proof for a successful prosecution would be reduced and juries would not necessarily be told why some disclosure poses such a serious threat.
In Priti Patel’s introduction to the document, the home secretary portrays Britain as beset by enemies at home and abroad who pose a mounting danger to the nation. Her declared purpose is “to empower the whole national security community to counter the insidious threat we face today”.
Supposing all these proposals are implemented then Britain will be well on the way to joining those countries where the disclosure of any information damaging to the government is punishable. Offences range from revealing war crimes to disclosing trivial failures. The Indian government would like to silence anybody revealing the true death toll in the Covid-19 epidemic; Turkey has jailed journalists for writing that it had supplied weapons to al-Qaeda-type organisations; the Egyptian government once stopped an academic from publishing a paper showing that more Egyptian farmers were going blind because of the spread of a waterborne parasite.
Britain does not have the same tradition of authoritarian censorship, but freedom of expression here is more fragile than it looks for two reasons. The Johnson administration has been more moderate than many nativist populist governments that have taken power around the world over the last decade. But it shares with them a strategy of systematic threat-inflation, frequently modelled on the agenda of the Republican Party in the US. In the paper cited above, Patel speaks of the necessity of introducing voter IDs and combating foreign powers interfering in British elections.
A second feature of British culture makes the country particularly open to the belief that somewhere in the heart of government lie informational crown jewels, well-guarded secrets so important that their disclosure would pose an existential threat to us all. Such a myth is central to the plot of thousands of spy novels and films. But in my experience as a journalist few such earth-shaking secrets exist and what many people think of as a secret is either trivial or can be deduced by any reasonably well-informed person.
The disclosures by Dominic Cummings, recently in the top ranks of government as Boris Johnson’s chief of staff, are a good example of what might be termed “the fallacy of the state secret”. For more than seven hours he testified to a parliamentary committee about the inner workings and personal likes and dislikes within the Johnson government. He made damaging allegations about Hancock, Johnson, inadequate preparations for the Covid-19 pandemic, the failure to protect care homes and shambolic mistakes in calling the second lockdown.
Yet none of these revelations were “secrets” in any sense of the word since the facts about these disastrous decisions and decision-makers had long been obvious. What made Cummings’s testimony so fascinating was that it provided eye-witness confirmation of what most people already knew.
Much the same is true of the Wikileaks publication of hundreds of thousands of classified US diplomatic and military cables in 2010 for which Julian Assange is currently incarcerated in Belmarsh high security prison in London. Despite the best effort of the US government to prove the opposite, these supposed “secrets” revealed little that was not known previously, deeply embarrassing though it was for the US government to see proof that its helicopters were machine-gunning civilians in the streets of Baghdad.
To try to maintain the classic spy movie narrative that secrets betrayed means that there is blood on the hands of the betrayers, the US army set up a task force to try to find a US agent who had died because of the Wikileaks revelations. But after long researches the team of 120 counterintelligence officers failed to find a single person, among the thousands of American agents and secret sources in Afghanistan and Iraq, who could be shown to have died because of the revelations.
The real reason why governments fight so hard to maintain their monopoly control over information is not to keep security secrets vital to the nation, but to use or leak that information themselves.
They know that it is one of the key levers of their power and will persecute and punish anybody who tries to take it from them.
As Ben Worthy puts it, the struggle, which people imagine is about keeping secrets, is really about who discloses them and is consequently “a battle to control the news agenda”.
* * *
Patrick Cockburn is the author of War in the Age of Trump (Verso).
Government
Analysts issue unexpected crude oil price forecast after surge
Here’s what a key investment firm says about the commodity.
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Oil is an asset defined by volatility.
U.S. crude prices stood above $60 a barrel in January 2020, just as the covid pandemic began. Three months later, prices briefly went negative, as the pandemic crushed demand.
By June 2022 the price rebounded all the way to $120, as fiscal and monetary stimulus boosted the economy. The price fell back to $80 in September 2022. Since then, it has bounced between about $65 and $90.
Over the past two months, the price has climbed 15% to $82 as of March 20.
Bullish factors for oil prices
The move stems partly from indications that economic growth this year will be stronger than analysts expected.
Related: The Fed rate decision won't surprise markets. What happens next might
Vanguard has just raised its estimate for 2024 U.S. GDP growth to 2% from 0.5%.
Meanwhile, China’s factory output and retail sales exceeded forecasts in January and February. That could boost oil demand in the country, the world's No. 1 oil importer.
Also, drone strokes from Ukraine have knocked out some of Russia’s oil refinery capacity. Ukraine has hit at least nine major refineries this year, erasing an estimated 11% of Russia’s production capacity, according to Bloomberg.
“Russia is a gas station with an army, and we intend on destroying that gas station,” Francisco Serra-Martins, chief executive of drone manufacturer Terminal Autonomy, told the news service. Gasoline, of course, is one of the products made at refineries.
Speaking of gas, the recent surge of oil prices has sent it higher as well. The average national price for regular gas totaled $3.52 per gallon Wednesday, up 7% from a month ago, according to the American Automobile Association. And we’re nearing the peak driving season.
Another bullish factor for oil: Iraq said Monday that it’s cutting oil exports by 130,000 barrels per day in coming months. Iraq produced much more oil in January and February than its OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) target.
Citigroup’s oil-price forecast
Yet, not everyone is bullish on oil going forward. Citigroup analysts see prices falling through next year, Dow Jones’s Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) reports.
More Economic Analysis:
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- Vanguard unveils bold interest rate forecast ahead of Fed meeting
The analysts note that supply is at risk in Israel, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Venezuela. But Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Russia could easily make up any shortfall.
Moreover, output should also rise this year and next in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, the analysts said. Meanwhile, global demand growth will decelerate, amid increased electric vehicle use and economic weakness.
Regarding refineries, the analysts see strong gains in capacity and capacity upgrades this year.
What if Donald Trump is elected president again? That “would likely be bearish for oil and gas," as Trump's policies could boost trade tension, crimping demand, they said.
The analysts made predictions for European oil prices, the world’s benchmark, which sat Wednesday at $86.
They forecast a 9% slide in the second quarter to $78, then a decline to $74 in the third quarter and $70 in the fourth quarter.
Next year should see a descent to $65 in the first quarter, $60 in the second and third, and finally $55 in the fourth, Citi said. That would leave the price 36% below current levels.
U.S. crude prices will trade $4 below European prices from the second quarter this year until the end of 2025, the analysts maintain.
Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024
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Disney remote jobs: the most magical WFH careers on earth?
Disney employs hundreds of thousands of employees at its theme parks and elsewhere, but the entertainment giant also offers opportunities for remote w…
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The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) is a major entertainment and media company that operates amusement parks, produces movies and television shows, airs news and sports programs, and sells Mickey Mouse and Star Wars merchandise at its retail stores across the U.S.
While most of the jobs at the multinational entertainment conglomerate require working with people — such as at its theme parks, film-production facilities, cruise ships, or corporate offices — there are also opportunities for remote work at Disney. And while remote typically means working from home, with Disney, it could also mean working in a non-corporate office and being able to move from one location to another and conduct business outside normal working hours.
Related: Target remote jobs: What type of work and how much does it pay?
What remote jobs are available at Disney?
Many companies, including Disney, have called employees to return to the office for work in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the bulk of the company’s positions are forward-facing, meaning they involve meeting with clients and customers on a regular basis.
Still, there are some jobs at the “most magical company on earth” that are listed as remote and don’t require frequent in-person interaction with people, including opportunities in data entry and sales.
On Disney’s career website, there are limited positions available where the work is completely remote. One listing, for example, is for a “graphics interface coordinator covering sporting events.” This role involves working on nights, weekends, and holidays — times when corporate offices tend to be closed — and it may make sense for the company to hire people who can work from home or to travel and work in a location separate from the game venue.
Some of the senior roles that are shown on the website involve managers who can oversee remote teams, whether that be in sales or data. Sometimes, a supervisor overseeing staff who work outside corporate offices may be responsible for hiring freelancers who work remotely.
On the employment website Indeed, there are limited positions listed. A job listing for a manager in enterprise underwriting for a federal credit union indicates weekend duty, working outside of an 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. schedule, and being able to work in different locations. The listed annual salary range of $84,960 to $132,000, though, is well above the national annual average of around $50,000.
Internationally, Disney offers remote work in India, largely in the field of software development for its India-based streaming platform, Disney+ Hotstar.
The company also offers some hybrid schemes, which involve a mixture of in-office and remote work. For a mid-level animator position based in San Francisco, the role would involve being in the office and working from home occasionally.
How much do remote jobs at Disney pay?
Pay for remote jobs at Disney varies significantly based on location. A salary for a freelance artist in New York City, for example, may be higher than for the same job in Orlando, Florida.
Disney lists actual salary ranges in some of its job postings. For example, the yearly pay for a California-based compensation manager who works with clients is $129,000 to $165,000.
In an online search for “remote jobs at Disney,” results range from $30 to $39 an hour, for data entry, or $28.50 to $38 an hour for social media customer support.
How can I apply for remote jobs at Disney?
You can look for remote jobs on Disney's career site, and type “remote” in the search field. Listings may also appear on career-data websites, including Indeed and Glassdoor.
How many employees does Disney have?
In 2023, Disney employed about 225,000 people globally, of which around 77% were full-time, 16% part-time, and 7% seasonal. The majority of the workers, around 167,000, were in the U.S.
Disney says that a significant number of its employees, including many of those who work at its theme parks, along with most writers, directors, actors, and production personnel, belong to unions. It’s not immediately known how many remote workers at the company, if any, are union members.
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The Digest #194
Poor Charlie’s Almanack, Ben Graham, GAAP accounting, John Templeton, AI dystopia, Inflation, Bloomstran on Berkshire, Intuitive Surgical, The lessons…
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Poor Charlie’s Almanack
Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger was first published in 2005 as a “coffee table” style book. It was beautifully presented but came with a high price tag. It was also heavy, somewhat unwieldy to read, and not very portable. The book’s format and price probably limited its reach.
Stripe Press published a new edition of the book shortly after Mr. Munger died last year at the age of ninety-nine. Amazon and other vendors instantly sold all available inventory. After waiting for three months, I finally received my copy last week.
Peter Kaufman is the editor of all editions of the book and I suspect that his main goal two decades ago was to honor Charlie Munger’s wisdom in a format that was not expected to “go viral.” In 2005, Charlie Munger was well known in the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder community and in the value investing world, but he was not as prominent as he became during his final decade. The clear purpose of the new edition is to disseminate his ideas as widely as possible.
The new edition is abridged to reduce repetitive content and I will withhold judgment about the wisdom of this abridgment until I finish reading the book. Since the heart of the book is comprised of speeches given by Charlie Munger, there are definitely cases where the same ideas are presented again and again.
Great books can be read many times while remaining highly relevant. I found this to be the case when I reread Charlie Munger’s Harvard School commencement address delivered in June 1986 when his youngest son was among the graduates. In the speech, Mr. Munger “inverts” the typical advice delivered in such speeches by explaining how the graduates should go about guaranteeing a life of failure and misery through time-tested strategies such as ingesting drugs and indulging in envy and resentment.
I am not sure how many graduates were convinced by Charlie Munger on that early summer day, but I suspect that most of them remember the speech because it was so unconventional. In contrast, I have no recollection of the commencement addresses when I graduated from high school or college, or even who the speaker was.
Articles
A Memorial for Charlie Munger by John Harvey Taylor, March 12, 2024. This is a brief account of a recent memorial service for Charlie Munger at Harvard-Westlake School. “We learned Sunday that someone once asked if he knew how to play the piano. ‘I don’t know,’ he said. ‘I’ve never tried.’ Yet he tried and finished so much in his century. Imagine what he is making of eternity.” (Episcopal Diocese of Los Angeles)
Benjamin Graham: Big Moments on the Way to Big Earnings, March 2024. Ben Graham’s granddaughter reflects on the challenges Graham experienced when he applied for college. “Most graduating seniors make their college plans in advance, but Ben Graham had no money for tuition. All through the long days of arduous farm labor, my grandfather dreamed of winning a Pulitzer Scholarship.” (Beyond Ben Graham)
Graham’s “Unpopular Large Caps” Part 2: Thoughts on Diversification by John Huber, March 19, 2024. “I would segment these ideas into two groups: core operating investments and bargain assets. In the former, you want to be very selective in picking a relatively small number of companies you intend to own for the long term. In the latter, you’d want to think like the insurance underwriter, buying as many as you can to ensure that the law of large numbers is on your side.” (Base Hit Investing)
Warren Buffett Minds the GAAP by Donald E. Graham, March 13, 2024. “I have a challenge for the FASB and the SEC: If you believe today’s accounting rules present a clearer picture of Berkshire’s results, put it to a test. Ask Berkshire’s shareholders if they prefer the present method of reporting earnings over the status quo ante. I don’t believe a single informed shareholder would say so. The rule is confusing and uninformative.” (WSJ)
- Berkshire Hathaway’s Distorted Quarterly Results, August 7, 2022. “Berkshire’s net income figure has been totally useless for analytical purposes since 2018. This is true on an annual basis and even more true on a quarterly basis.” (The Rational Walk)
Sir John Templeton: The Gentleman Bargain Hunter by Kingswell, March 12, 2024. “Templeton, who passed away in 2008, arrived on the investing scene with a series of uber-profitable contrarian bets in the early days of World War II — and continued to outwit Mr. Market with maddening consistency for the next several decades.” (Kingswell)
They Praised AI at SXSW—and the Audience Started Booing by Ted Gioia, March 19, 2024. Many recent innovations seem to have a dystopian aura. Apparently, this sentiment is not restricted to the usual luddites (old men shouting at clouds) but is shared by some of the attendees of SXSW. What seems cool to tech bros in Silicon Valley might not seem so cool to those outside tech culture. (The Honest Broker)
We Still Don’t Believe How Much Things Cost by Rachel Wolfe and Rachel Louise Ensign, March 12, 2024. People tend to focus on the aggregate amount of inflation over the past few years and interpreted transitory to mean that price spikes would reverse. Of course, politicians and economists only meant that the rate of inflation would decrease, not that prices would ever return to pre-pandemic levels. (WSJ)
My 2023 Apple Report Card by John Gruber, March 18, 2024. A solid report card overall from a widely read technology blog. (Daring Fireball)
Podcasts
Christopher Bloomstran on Buffett, Berkshire, Munger, and China, March 19, 2024. 1 hour, 1 minute. Video. Also be sure to check out the latest Semper Augustus client letter which has a lengthy section on Berkshire Hathaway. (Value After Hours)
Renaissance Technologies, March 18, 2024. 3 hours, 10 minutes. Notes. “Renaissance Technologies is the best performing investment firm of all time. And yet no one at RenTec would consider themselves an ‘investor’, at least in any traditional sense of the word. It’d rather be more accurate to call them scientists — scientists who’ve discovered a system of math, computers and artificial intelligence that has evolved into the greatest money making machine the world has ever seen.” (Acquired)
- Review of The Man Who Solved the Market, December 28, 2019 (Rational Walk)
Intuitive Surgical: Robotic Precision, March 20, 2024. 1 hour, 6 minutes. Transcript. “Intuitive creates robotic products to assist minimally invasive surgeries. Its Da Vinci system is a pioneer in this area as it increases the efficiency & accuracy of surgery and reduces the burden on the surgeons themselves.” (Business Breakdowns)
The Lessons of History (Will & Ariel Durant), March 18, 2023. 53 minutes. Notes. “In every age men have been dishonest and governments have been corrupt.” (Founders)
A Classicist Believes that Homer Directly Dictated the Iliad, and Was Also an Excellent Horseman, March 14, 2024. 53 minutes. “The Iliad is the world’s greatest epic poem—heroic battle and divine fate set against the Trojan War. Its beauty and profound bleakness are intensely moving, but great questions remain: Where, how, and when was it composed and why does it endure?” (History Unplugged)
Triumph of Achilles
Copyright, Disclosures, and Privacy Information
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