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UAW Auto Strike Costs “Detroit 3” $250 Million In Lost Profit Every Day, Will Lead To Much More Inflation

UAW Auto Strike Costs "Detroit 3" $250 Million In Lost Profit Every Day, Will Lead To Much More Inflation

One week ago, when previewing the…

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UAW Auto Strike Costs "Detroit 3" $250 Million In Lost Profit Every Day, Will Lead To Much More Inflation

One week ago, when previewing the three events that are about to slam US GDP in the tail end of the 3rd and the 3th quarter (including the return of student loan payments, the UAW strike and the government shutdown), Goldman calculated that reduced auto production from a potential UAW strike would reduce quarterly annualized growth by 0.05-0.10% for each week it lasted, if all three companies currently undergoing contract negotiations are impacted. "Those three companies—Ford, GM, and Stellantis—produce almost half of domestically-assembled cars. Auto production would likely fall sharply—we assume to roughly zero—at any company impacted by a strike", Goldman said in its 30,000 approximation of the impact..

Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's auto strategist, Adam Jonas, takes a closer look at the impact of the UAW strikes, which are now in their 5th day.

According to Jonas, investors have expressed a degree of trepidation over the strike outcome in a recent survey and now that it’s here, the path to resolution does appear to have matched investor fears.

Here is his quick calculation: "the value of N. American light production of the D3 (F, GM, STLA collectively) is approximately $750mm per day (approx. 15k units per day). Applying slightly more than a 30% decremental (yes, mix is that high) implies around $250mm of lost profit per day (assuming 100% of production impacted)."

Extrapolating to a full month of lost output (adjusted for production days) could be worth $7 to $8bn of lost profit for the D3, collectively.

According to Jonas, some of the lost production would be made back as some customers may be tempted to buy an import brand - or Tesla - with lack of availability.

But beyond the 1-time losses, Jonas says he is much more concerned about the potential for 30 to 40% labor inflation over the life of the next 4-year contract and how the domestic auto companies may recalibrate their ROIC and payback math for EV onshoring. The MS strategist thinks the outcome will be greater austerity and focus on the ICE run-off (that, however, would make many more workers redundant as EV require far less mechanical intervention than ICEs).

One must also consider that new car purchases account for roughly 5% of US CPI and soon car companies will have to raise prices (structurally) to compensate for higher labor input cost. Put simply, a 3% increase in new car prices could be worth 15bps to CPI over 4 years.

Finally, some thoughts on the UAW strike from One River CIO Eric Peters:

“The money is there. The cause is righteous. The world is watching, and the UAW is ready to stand up,” declared United Auto Workers boss Shawn Fain to his union members on a Facebook livestream. “This is our defining moment.”

Detroit automaker unionized labor costs, including wages and benefits, are estimated at an average of $66/hour. That compares with $45 at Tesla, which isn’t unionized, and $55 for Asian automakers.

Meeting all of Fain’s initial demands would boost average hourly labor costs to an estimated $136/hour.

Fein claims to be matching the roughly 40% compensation gains automaker CEOs have realized in the past decade. Ford’s CEO made $22mm last year. Stellantis’s $24.8mm. GM’s nearly $29mm.

“Competition is code word for race to the bottom, and I’m not concerned about Elon Musk building more rocket ships so he can fly in outer space and stuff,” Fain told CNBC, defending his demands. “Our concern is working-class people need their share of economic justice in this world.”

The secular trend toward ever rising inequality is turning. In August, UPS settled its labor dispute with the Teamsters 340k drivers who on average now make $170k in wages and benefits. That same month, Yellow failed to come to agreement with the Teamsters and ceased operations after nearly a century of trucking delivery -- it awarded ten executives $4.6mm in special retention bonuses, laid off all 30k drivers and went into liquidation.

A secular trend reversal to how society divides its economic spoils is not all that different from revolution. Bitterly fought, treacherous for all involved. And this latest episode promises to be particularly so.

Because in the timeless conflict between capital and labor, it is extremely rare for the imbalance to be so extreme. The wider the gap, the bigger the stakes. And the last time the chasm was so great was at the height of the Roaring 1920s.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/21/2023 - 21:20

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Analyst revamps MicroStrategy stock price target after Bitcoin buy

Here’s what could happen to MicroStrategy shares next.

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March 20, 2024

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How does Michael Saylor feel about bitcoin? We'll let him tell you in his own words.

"Bitcoin is a swarm of cyberhornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing ever smarter, faster, and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy," the executive chairman and co-founder of MicroStrategy  (MSTR)  once said.

Too subtle? Still not sure how the former CEO of the software intelligence company feels about the world's largest cryptocurrency? 

Maybe this will help.

"Bitcoin is a bank in cyberspace, run by incorruptible software, offering a global, affordable, simple and secure savings account to billions of people that don't have the option or desire to run their own hedge fund," Saylor said.

Okay, so the guy really likes bitcoin. And on March 19, the first day of spring, MicroStrategy took a bigger bite out of bitcoin when the company said it had bought 9,245 bitcoins for $623 million between March 11 and March 18.

MicroStrategy said it a completed a $603.75 million convertible debt offering — its second in a week — to raise money to buy bitcoin.

The company now holds about $13.5 billion of bitcoin, which adds up to more than 1% of the 21 million bitcoin that will ever exist, according to CoinDesk.

An analyst adjusts his price target for MicroStrategy

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Committed to developing bitcoin network

MicroStrategy said in a regulatory filing that it had paid roughly $7.53 billion for its bitcoin stash, an average of $35,160 per coin.

The company's stock fell on Tuesday, while bitcoin posted its biggest single-day loss since November 2022. MicroStrategy was off slightly to $1,416 at last check on Wednesday and bitcoin was up 2.3% to $63.607.

Related: Analyst unveils Nvidia stock price 'line in the sand'

Phong Le, MicroStrategy’s president and CEO, told analysts during the company’s Feb. 6 fourth-quarter-earnings call that "we remain highly committed to our bitcoin strategy with a long-term focus.."

"We consider MicroStrategy to be the world's first bitcoin development company," he said. "We are a publicly traded operating company committed to the continued development of the bitcoin network through activities in the financial markets, advocacy, and technology innovation."

MicroStrategy earned $4.96 a share in the quarter, beating the FactSet consensus of a loss of 64 cents, and light years beyond the year-ago loss of $21.93 a share.

Revenue totaled $124.5 million, compared with FactSet's call for $133 million and the year-earlier tally of $132.6 million.

During the call, Saylor told analysts that "2024 is the year of birth of bitcoin as an institutional-grade asset class."

MicroStrategy, he said, completed the first 15 years of the bitcoin life cycle, back when it was largely unregulated and misunderstood. 

"The next 15 years, I would expect, will be a regulated, institutional, high-growth period of bitcoin, very, very different in many ways from the last 15 years," Saylor said.

Crypto's dark days

"Bitcoin itself is performing well for a number of reasons, but one reason is because it represents the digital transformation of capital," he added.

Of course, life with bitcoin wasn't always sunshine and roses. 

More Wall Street Analysts:

We take you back now to those less-than-thrilling days yesteryear, when covid-19 was on the rampage and the price of bitcoin fell 30% from March 8 to March 12 2020.

By the end of 2021, bitcoin had fallen nearly 30%. And 2023 saw the cryptocurrency sector wracked with bankruptcy and scandal, with the likes of FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried being convicted of fraud, conspiracy, and money laundering. 

SBF, as he has been known, is scheduled to be sentenced in Manhattan federal court on March 28. He faces a long stretch.

But bitcoin rose about 160% in 2023 and hit a record $73,750 on March 14.

Saylor recently said that his high hopes for bitcoin this year stemmed largely from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approving spot bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming bitcoin halving, where when bitcoin's mining reward is split in half.

MicroStrategy is the first bitcoin development company, Saylor told analysts, but perhaps not for long. 

"We've published our playbook, and we're showing other companies how to do it," he said.

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza cited MicroStrategy's latest bitcoin acquisition when he adjusted his price target for the company's shares on March 20.

The analyst cut the investment firm's price target on MicroStrategy to $1,450 from $1,560 and affirmed an outperform rating on the shares. 

He says the shares remain an attractive vehicle for investors looking to gain bitcoin exposure.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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FoxO6-mediated ApoC3 upregulation promotes hepatic steatosis and hyperlipidemia in aged rats fed a high-fat diet

“This discovery unveils a potential novel molecular target for therapeutic strategies against hepatic steatosis during the aging process […]” Credit:…

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March 20, 2024

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“This discovery unveils a potential novel molecular target for therapeutic strategies against hepatic steatosis during the aging process […]”

Credit: 2024 Kim et al.

“This discovery unveils a potential novel molecular target for therapeutic strategies against hepatic steatosis during the aging process […]”

BUFFALO, NY- March 20, 2024 – A new research paper was published in Aging (listed by MEDLINE/PubMed as “Aging (Albany NY)” and “Aging-US” by Web of Science) Volume 16, Issue 5, entitled, “FoxO6-mediated ApoC3 upregulation promotes hepatic steatosis and hyperlipidemia in aged rats fed a high-fat diet.”

FoxO6, an identified factor, induces hyperlipidemia and hepatic steatosis during aging by activating hepatic lipoprotein secretion and lipogenesis leading to increased ApoC3 concentrations in the bloodstream. However, the intricate mechanisms underlying hepatic steatosis induced by elevated FoxO6 under hyperglycemic conditions remain intricate and require further elucidation.

In this new study, researchers Dae Hyun Kim, Seulah Lee, Sang Gyun Noh, Jaewon Lee, and Hae Young Chung from Pusan National University aimed to delineate the regulatory pathway involving ApoC3 controlled by FoxO6 and its resultant functional impacts.

“[…] we employed a spectrum of models including liver cell cultures, aged rats subjected to HFD, transgenic mice overexpressing FoxO6 (FoxO6-Tg), and FoxO6 knockout mice (FoxO6-KO).”

Their findings indicate that FoxO6 triggered ApoC3-driven lipid accumulation in the livers of aged rats on an HFD and in FoxO6-Tg, consequently leading to hepatic steatosis and hyperglycemia. Conversely, the absence of FoxO6 attenuated the expression of genes involved in lipogenesis, resulting in diminished hepatic lipid accumulation and mitigated hyperlipidemia in murine models. Additionally, the upregulation of FoxO6 due to elevated glucose levels led to increased ApoC3 expression, consequently instigating cellular triglyceride mediated lipid accumulation. The transcriptional activation of FoxO6 induced by both the HFD and high glucose levels resulted in hepatic steatosis by upregulating ApoC3 and genes associated with gluconeogenesis in aged rats and liver cell cultures.

“Our conclusions indicate that the upregulation of ApoC3 by FoxO6 promotes the development of hyperlipidemia, hyperglycemia, and hepatic steatosis in vivo, and in vitro. Taken together, our findings underscore the significance of FoxO6 in driving hyperlipidemia and hepatic steatosis specifically under hyperglycemic states by enhancing the expression of ApoC3 in aged rats.”
 

Read the full paper: DOI: https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.205610 

Corresponding Author: Hae Young Chung

Corresponding Email: hyjung@pusan.ac.kr 

Keywords: HFD-feeding, aging, forkhead transcription factor O6, ApoC3, lipid accumulation, hepatic steatosis

Click here to sign up for free Altmetric alerts about this article.

 

About Aging:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed Central, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

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Journal

Aging-US

DOI

10.18632/aging.205610

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

FoxO6-mediated ApoC3 upregulation promotes hepatic steatosis and hyperlipidemia in aged rats fed a high-fat diet

Article Publication Date

3-Mar-2024

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ARPA-H appoints Etta Pisano to lead its Advancing Clinical Trials Readiness Initiative

The Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) has appointed Etta D. Pisano, MD, FACR, senior portfolio lead, to build the agency’s clinical…

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March 20, 2024

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The Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) has appointed Etta D. Pisano, MD, FACR, senior portfolio lead, to build the agency’s clinical trial portfolio and lead the ARPA-H Advancing Clinical Trials Readiness Initiative under ARPA-H Resilient Systems Mission Office Director Jennifer Roberts.

Credit: N/A

The Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) has appointed Etta D. Pisano, MD, FACR, senior portfolio lead, to build the agency’s clinical trial portfolio and lead the ARPA-H Advancing Clinical Trials Readiness Initiative under ARPA-H Resilient Systems Mission Office Director Jennifer Roberts.

The first radiologist to be appointed to such a role, Dr. Pisano is an internationally recognized expert in women’s health, breast cancer research, and the use of artificial intelligence in medical imaging applications.

“I am honored to be working for ARPA-H to identify and promote research that can improve healthcare quality, efficacy and delivery, and to improve patient care and access to clinical trials for all Americans, including women, rural residents, and the underserved,” said Dr. Pisano.

Dr. Pisano will continue to serve as study chair of the large-scale Tomosynthesis Mammographic Imaging Screening Trial (TMIST) for the ECOG-ACRIN Cancer Research Group (ECOG-ACRIN). TMIST is led by ECOG-ACRIN with funding from the National Cancer Institute, part of the National Institutes of Health. She will also continue to serve as the American College of Radiology® (ACR®) Chief Research Officer (CRO). Dr. Pisano previously served as the principal investigator of the landmark Digital Mammographic Imaging Screening Trial (DMIST).

The TMIST breast cancer screening study is among the fastest growing National Cancer Institute (NCI) trials of the COVID-19 era. Under Dr. Pisano’s leadership, TMIST is assembling one of the most diverse cancer screening trial populations ever. Approximately 21% of TMIST U.S. participants are Black—more than double the average rate for Black participation in NCI-funded clinical trials (9%).

With ARPA-H, Dr. Pisano will work to build underserved and minority participation in clinical trials—including identifying and onboarding rural facilities and those outside of large academic medical centers—such as emerging retail healthcare sites. 

These duties are also very consistent with the missions of ECOG-ACRIN and ACR, which include promoting the exploration and identification of next-generation technologies that can benefit patients and providers.

“This is a great opportunity for Etta, and I’m excited about the impact she will make on our approach to clinical trials,” said Mitchell D. Schnall, MD, PhD, group co-chair of ECOG-ACRIN.

About ECOG-ACRIN

The ECOG-ACRIN Cancer Research Group (ECOG-ACRIN) is an expansive membership-based scientific organization that designs and conducts cancer research involving adults who have or are at risk of developing cancer. The Group comprises nearly 1400 member institutions and 21,000 research professionals in the United States and around the world. ECOG-ACRIN is known for advancing precision medicine and biomarker research through its leadership of major national clinical trials integrating cutting-edge genomic approaches. Member researchers and advocates collaborate across more than 40 scientific committees to design studies spanning the cancer care spectrum, from early detection to management of advanced disease. ECOG-ACRIN is funded primarily by the National Cancer Institute, part of the National Institutes of Health. Visit ecog-acrin.org, and follow us on X @eaonc, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Instagram.

Media Contact: Diane Dragaud, Director of Communications, communications@ecog-acrin.org.

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