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Twenty-two states will increase their minimum wages on January 1, raising pay for nearly 10 million workers

On January 1, 22 states will increase their minimum wages, raising pay for an estimated 9.9 million workers. In total, workers will receive $6.95 billion…

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On January 1, 22 states will increase their minimum wages, raising pay for an estimated 9.9 million workers. In total, workers will receive $6.95 billion in additional wages from state minimum wage increases. In addition, 38 cities and counties will increase their minimum wages on January 1 above their state’s wage floors, adding to the number of workers likely to see increased earnings. In the absence of federal action, states and localities continue to take the lead in advancing fairer wage floors via legislation, ballot measures, and automatic inflation adjustments.

The minimum wage continues to be a vital policy for creating a more equitable economy. According to our analysis:

  • Women make up more than half (57.9%) of workers getting an increase on January 1.
  • The minimum wage increases will also disproportionately benefit Black and Hispanic workers. Black workers make up 9.0% of the wage-earning workforce in the states with increases, but are 11.1% of the affected workers. Similarly, Hispanic workers are 19.6% of the workforce in these states, but 37.9% of the workers receiving wage increases.
  • These increases will also bring important benefits to working families. More than a quarter (25.8%) of affected workers are parents, or more than 2.5 million people. In total, 5.6 million children live in households where an individual will receive a minimum wage increase.
  • The increases will provide critical support to workers and families in need. Almost one in five (19.7%) workers getting a raise have incomes below the poverty line, and nearly half (47.4%) have incomes below twice the poverty line.
  • More than half (51%) of workers getting minimum wage increases are in California, Hawaii, and New York, all high cost-of-living states.

As Figure A and Table 1 show, the size of wage increases varies widely across states. Hawaii is the state with the largest increase, growing by $2.00 to $14.00 an hour, which translates to a $1,380 boost in annual wages for the average full-time, year-round affected worker (see Table 2). Michigan is the state with the smallest increase, going from $10.10 to $10.33—which translates to an additional $216 annually for the average full-time worker. However, a case before the Michigan Supreme Court could decide that Michigan low-wage workers are entitled to a more significant increase.

In January, the minimum wages in Maryland, New Jersey, and upstate New York will reach or exceed $15 an hour for the first time, joining California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Washington, and the rest of New York as states at or above $15 an hour.1 There are also seven more states that have passed legislation or ballot measures to reach or surpass $15 an hour in the coming years (Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Nebraska, Rhode Island, and Virginia). Washington state will have the highest state minimum wage at the beginning of the year as it increases from $15.74 to $16.28 due to an inflation adjustment.

Despite continued progress by many states across the country to increase their wage floors, there are still 17.6 million workers earning less than $15 an hour. Almost half of workers (47.8%) earning less than $15 an hour are in one of the 20 states that still uses the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour.

Figure A

It’s important to note that fewer workers are directly affected by minimum wage increases because the tight post-pandemic labor market has led to the strongest wage growth for low-wage workers in decades, even after accounting for rising prices. Low unemployment has meant that employers have had to pay higher wages to attract and retain workers. Nevertheless, higher state minimum wages are still important for securing the gains low-wage workers are attaining during this remarkable period of wage growth. Minimum wage increases are also vital to many workers who are more vulnerable to exploitation, whether it’s because of immigration status, disability, or place of work.

Although inflation has decreased greatly in the last year, price increases since 2020 have eroded the purchasing power of the federal minimum wage and the minimum wages of the 21 states that have made no adjustments to their state minimums.2 For instance, the federal minimum wage of $7.25 had the same purchasing power in February 2020 as $8.61 in November 2023. Many states have minimum wage policies that proactively address this issue by indexing their wage floors to price increases. Twelve of the 22 states with increases on January 1 automatically adjust their minimum wage for inflation every year.

Lawmakers in some states that recently passed minimum wage legislation are recognizing that inflation has eaten into the value of the targets they had previously set. Maryland lawmakers passed legislation in 2019 setting the state on the path to $15 an hour, but this year chose to accelerate the increase by a year. Meanwhile, New York state, which implemented legislation in 2016 to reach $15 an hour, passed a new policy that will see New York City, Long Island, and Westchester County increase their minimum wages to $17 an hour in 2026. The remainder of the state will increase to $16 an hour during the same period. As in Maryland and New York, federal minimum wage advocates are adjusting their targets to compensate for increases in the cost of living in the last few years. The latest federal minimum wage bill targets $17 an hour by 2028, a recognition that $15 an hour will no longer meet the needs of low-wage workers.

Inflation adjustments are also relevant for local minimum wages, where the majority of increases are due to automatic adjustments. Table 3 shows that 35 cities and counties are making inflation adjustments to their minimum wages, mostly in California. Tukwila, WA, will have the highest minimum wage in the country in 2024 at $20.29 an hour. Localities are carrying the baton on minimum wage policy in other ways as well. Chicago passed an ordinance to phase out the harmful subminimum wage for tipped workers by 2028. Chicago joins seven states3, the District of Columbia, and Flagstaff, AZ, as jurisdictions that have or will eliminate this carve-out that allows employers of tipped workers to pay as little as $2.13 per hour.

Also of note is Boulder County, CO, which this year passed an ordinance increasing the minimum wage to $25 an hour by 2030. Advocates targeted this level due to research on the “self-sufficiency standard” in the county, an estimate of the income necessary for a family to cover its basic needs. According to EPI’s Family Budget Calculator, a two-parent, two-child household in Boulder County needs $108,881 a year to cover a modest living standard. This translates to roughly $26 an hour if both adults are working full time, underscoring how difficult it is for low-wage workers to find a way to live sustainably. A $25 minimum wage might seem high, but the truth is that Boulder County is unlikely to be the highest minimum wage in the country in 2030 because of steps other localities have taken to index their minimum wages to inflation. Strong minimum wage policy can only benefit localities seeking a thriving and equitable local economy.

The minimum wage continues to be a powerful tool for fostering economic equity and ensuring a dignified standard of living for workers across the nation. The proactive steps many states and localities took to index their minimum wages to inflation has helped protect the purchasing power of low-wage workers during the recent period of inflation. However, policy reforms are still necessary to overcome federal inaction and the persistence of unjust minimum wage carve-outs like the tipped minimum wage.

Table 1
Table 1
Table 2
Table 2
Table 3
Table 3
Notes

1. The District of Columbia’s minimum wage is $17.00 an hour.

2. The 20 states using the federal minimum wage and West Virginia, which last increased its minimum wage to $8.75 in 2015.

3. Alaska, California, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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