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Trump Tax-Dodging Scandal Is About More Than Him

Trump Tax-Dodging Scandal Is About More Than Him

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Trump GOP Tax September surprise coronavirus, stimulus checks, Pelosi, Trump, name, Democrats, Republicans

Trump Tax-Dodging Scandal Is About More Than Him: Billionaire Paying Zero Taxes Highlights Rigged System

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Nurses & Teachers Paid More Tax Than President in Recent Years; Trump Made Things Worse With 2017 Tax Law; Biden Offers Reforms

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The New York Times expose of Donald Trump’s tax-paying history is about more than the questionable moral and legal choices of the president, as important as those are. It also reveals how rigged the tax system is in favor of the wealthy, especially those in real estate; the fragility of Trump’s finances; and the threat his perilous condition poses to U.S. national security.

This memo covers these issues, explains key features of Joe Biden’s tax plan, and reviews the effects of the Trump-GOP tax cuts on the pre-pandemic economy. We urge you to write a column that encompasses these issues to educate citizens as they vote this fall.

How Trump's Tax-Paying Record Compares to Others

Trump, worth $2.5 billion according to a recent estimate by Forbes magazine, paid no federal income taxes for 11 out of 18 years between 2000 and 2017 and paid just $750 in 2016 and in 2017, the Times reported. In comparison, in 2017 a typical nurse or schoolteacher paid on average nearly $5,000 in federal income taxes; a firefighter paid about $2,500; and a bus driver, around $900. Over that 2000-17 span, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden paid a total of almost $5 million on $16.4 million of income—an average tax rate of 30%.

Only for a few years in that 18-year period—in the first decade of the century, when his TV show, “The Apprentice,” was at the height of its success—did Trump pay substantial federal income taxes. But he soon clawed all that money back (plus interest) by filing for, and receiving, a $73 million refund. The I.R.S. has been auditing the legitimacy of that refund ever since.

Trump's Tax Returns Show He May be Breaking the Law

According to the Times, Trump wrote off as business expenses such personal costs as the:

  • Legal defense of Donald Trump Jr. in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia inquiry.
  • $70,000 for his costly hair care and $95,000-plus for makeup services.
  • Consulting fees of more than $700,000 paid to his daughter Ivanka, even though she already worked for the Trump Organization, thus artificially upping costs to lower tax bills.
  • Property taxes totaling $2.2 million on a huge estate outside New York City that the Trump family has routinely used as a personal “retreat,” not a business.

Trump's Precarious Financial Situation Poses a National Security Threat

Donald Trump’s businesses are failing, and his huge debts may pose a significant conflict of interest and a potential national security threat. As the Times reports, Trump “is personally responsible for loans and other debts totaling $421 million, with most of it coming due within four years.” It is not clear to whom this money is owed or what leverage they have over Trump. Experts say that level of debt might block security clearance for most federal employees.

Trump's Tax Dodging Reveals a System in Need of Major Reform

Trump exploits numerous loopholes favoring the real estate industry that lobbyists—including Trump himself—have inserted into the tax code. The 2017 Trump-GOP tax law preserved all those special breaks, and even added a few more. Examples of real estate’s tax privileges:

  • Tax-Reducing Losses: Unique among businesses, real estate “passive losses” (like from a failing apartment building or golf course) can be used to reduce income from a job or other sources. And because of its boom-and-bust nature, real estate is particularly well-positioned to take advantage of loss “carrybacks,” such as Trump did in 2010 and other real estate pros are undoubtedly doing now thanks to a provision in the CARES Act.
  • Depreciation: Businesses can write off, or “depreciate,” the cost of certain property over time, reflecting gradual wear and tear that reduces value. But unlike, say, trucks and machinery, real estate often gains value over the years. Yet real estate professionals like Trump are still allowed to depreciate commercial properties that are actually rising in market price, cutting their taxes even as their wealth grows.
  • Like-Kind Exchanges: Capital gains taxes are usually due when an asset is sold for more than it cost. Before the Trump-GOP tax law, investors in tangible items like real estate could indefinitely delay paying if they kept reinvesting the proceeds in another item—what is called a “like-kind exchange.” If these gains were continuously rolled over until the taxpayer dies, they were never taxed at all. The Trump-GOP tax law closed the like-kind-exchange loophole—except for real estate investors such as Trump, who got to keep this handy way of avoiding taxes on their gains.

Joe Biden's Tax Plan

Biden’s tax plan would repeal or modify several key provisions of the nearly $2 trillion Trump-GOP tax cuts, which mostly benefited the rich and major corporations. It would make the tax system and the overall economy much fairer by closing loopholes and increasing taxes on the rich and corporations, and raising $4 trillion to improve public services, strengthen Social Security, and make new investments to build an economy that works better for everyone.

Biden’s plan would not directly tax any household making less than $400,000 a year, a point confirmed by PolitiFact, FactCheck.org and the Washington Post’s Fact Checker. Moody’s Analytics recently declared the Biden plan would be better for the economy—and add 7.4 million more jobs—than Trump’s tax-cuts-for-the-rich, trickle-down policies.

Among Biden’s most important reforms are:

  • Increasing the domestic corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28% and imposing an “Offshoring Tax Penalty” that raises the rate to 30.8%. The 2017 Trump-GOP tax law lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, a massive 40% tax cut. Biden will recover half of this giveaway. It will also impose a 3.8% tax on top for domestic companies that produce offshore for the U.S. market. REVENUE RAISED: $1.3 Trillion
  • Applying Social Security taxes to wage income above $400,000. Income over $137,700 is not now subject to Social Security payroll taxes. To strengthen Social Security, Biden will begin to apply this 12.4% tax—split evenly between employer and employee—on wages above $400,000. This will allow the minimum benefit to be increased and ensure full benefits can be paid for decades to come. REVENUE RAISED: $962 Billion
  • Making the richest taxpayers pay the same tax rate on income from wealth (capital gains) as they pay on income from work (wages and salaries). Closing the loophole that lets the wealthy pass assets to heirs without paying taxes on the accumulated increase in the value of those assets. Biden will end a loophole that lets the wealthiest pay a lower percentage of their income in taxes than do ordinary Americans. A main way they do this is because of lower tax rates—topping out at just 20%—on long-term capital gains. These are the profits from the sale of stock, real estate, a business or other financial asset held over a year. Biden will end this discount for those earning over $1 million, so they pay the same top rate on capital gains as they would on wages and salaries—39.6% under his plan. Biden will also end the “stepped-up basis” loophole, which will require the wealthy to pay income tax on previously untaxed capital gains at the time of transfer to heirs. REVENUE RAISED: $448 Billion
  • Closing real estate tax loopholes. Biden will end “like-kind exchanges” and curb the depreciation and passive-loss rules that have helped Trump so much. REVENUE RAISED: $294 Billion

Effect of the Trump-GOP Tax Cuts on the Economy

The president brags that he had created the “best economy in history,” which was due significantly to his tax cuts. However, even before the pandemic, Trump’s tax cuts had failed to fulfill their promises, as detailed in this Chartbook:

  • On Fairness: It was not a middle-class tax cut. This year the top 1% will get as much in tax cuts—$78 billion—as the bottom 80%. Nearly 100 big profitable corporations paid zero federal income taxes in the law’s first year.
  • On Jobs & Wages: It did not improve wage gains for workers: average pay hikes in the first two years under the law lagged those under the last two years under Obama-Biden. Job growth did not accelerate either—it was nearly identical over those two periods.
  • On the Deficit & Economy: The tax cuts will not pay for themselves, but instead add $1.9 trillion to the national debt; the deficit soared in the first two years of the law. The law did not boost the economy: in those first two years, economic growth was very similar to the Obama-Biden years. Business investment did not boom.

Economic Response to the Pandemic

Six months after the CARES Act, Trump and the Senate have still failed to pass a serious follow-up coronavirus aid bill, despite millions falling ill and losing health insurance, and tens of millions jobless and hungry. In those same six months, roughly 650 billionaires collectively got $845 billion richer, a nearly 30% leap in wealth. Regular workers did not fare as well. From mid-March to mid-August, the collective work income of rank-and-file private-sector employees—all hours worked times the hourly wages of the entire bottom 82% of the workforce—declined by 4.4.%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The post Trump Tax-Dodging Scandal Is About More Than Him appeared first on ValueWalk.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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