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Top US “Non-Profit” Hospitals And CEOs Racked Up Huge Pandemic Profits

Top US "Non-Profit" Hospitals And CEOs Racked Up Huge Pandemic Profits

By Adam Andrzejewski of OpenTheBooks substack

OpenTheBooks.com auditors…

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Top US "Non-Profit" Hospitals And CEOs Racked Up Huge Pandemic Profits

By Adam Andrzejewski of OpenTheBooks substack

OpenTheBooks.com auditors investigated America’s healthcare system and found so-called “non-profit” hospitals and their CEOs are getting richer while the American people are getting sicker and poorer.

Topline

The 20 largest non-profit hospitals in the country continued making massive profits while their cumulative net assets soared to $324.3 billion in 2021 from $200.6 billion in 2018. The year 2021 is the latest year available for cross-comparison purposes.

Those hospital systems received congressional Covid bailouts of $23 billion and only two providers partially paid their Covid bailout back.

Meanwhile, hospital executives racked up Wall Street-sized compensation packages which frequently exceeded $10 million per year. For example, the CEO at Ascension Healthcare based in St. Louis, Missouri made $13 million in 2021 – with three-year pay exceeding $22 million.

Furthermore, American life expectancy during this period sharply declined by a staggering 2.5 years from 2019 through 2022. While “comparable country averages” rebounded from a Covid-related drop in 2021, the U.S. continued declining in life expectancy.

Yet, the cost of health care is still astronomically high, as the average family paid $22,463 in health insurance premiums in 2022. That does not include out-of-pocket costs like co-pays and deductibles, which can be thousands more.

This has led to medical debt for about 100 million Americans.

In 2020, the Trump administration issued, and the Biden administration finalized (January 2021) a healthcare transparency rule – to spur market competition and inform patients.

Yet, two years after the rule took effect, an independent audit found that nearly three-quarters of hospitals in the country were not complying— flouting the mandate that prices be posted clearly and comprehensively.

Big Numbers

The 20 largest non-profit hospital systems saw their combined net assets soar 62 percent, or $124 billion, in the three years to 2021. You -- the U.S. taxpayer -- funded rocket ride. Examples:

  • The world-famous Mayo Clinic: Astounding 92 percent jump to $17.7 billion in 2021 from $9.2 billion in 2018.

  • Cleveland Clinic Health System: Up 60 percent to $15.6 billion in 2021.

  • Intermountain Healthcare: Up 63 percent to $11.6 billion. Tellingly, Colorado Governor Jared Polis had earlier cited Colorado hospitals for ‘non-profit profiteering.’

  • Northwestern Medicine: Up 43 percent to 11.9 billion.

  • Indiana University Health System: Up 47 percent to $10.3 billion from $7 billion in 2018.

Yet, not one of these systems complied fully with U.S. government price transparency rules, according to a key health care watchdog.

Crucial Quote

“This blatant obfuscation of prices and flouting of the rule demonstrates that implementation and enforcement efforts must be rigorously examined and markedly strengthened to improve compliance, enable technology innovators to parse the pricing data, and empower American consumers with upfront prices,” Patient Rights Advocate (PRA), in its February 2023 report.

PRA, a nonprofit fighting for systemwide healthcare price transparency, reviewed the websites of 2,000 U.S. hospitals, focusing on the nations’ largest health systems. In February 2023, the group found that under 25-percent were in complete compliance. In August 2022, PRA found only 16-percent of hospitals were compliant.

Yet only four hospitals have been fined by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid – the federal agency responsible for creating and enforcing health and safety guidelines. CMS fined two in June 2022 and two more in April 2023.

A Deeper Dive

Here are the financial breakdowns of ten large non-profit hospitals systems with all or most of their hospitals non-compliant on price transparency. We reached out to each of these hospitals for comments and context.

Numerous hospital spokespeople point to their absence from the short naughty list (only four hospitals fined) as evidence that they’re following the law. However, the Department of Health and Human Services Inspector General is investigating CMS for not properly monitoring and enforcing the healthcare price transparency rule.

Ascension Healthcare

  • 2021 Net assets: $29.3 billion
  • 2018 Net assets: $23.5 billion
  • Top Paid Exec Salary: $13 million
  • Covid-19 Aid Received: $2.7 billion source
  • Hospitals in compliance: 4 out of 105 reviewed of Ascension Healthcare’s 139 hospitals.
  • Percent compliance: 4%

Ascension spokesperson Nick Ragone said, “We are proud to be a leader in price transparency — not only complying with the rule but going beyond it, to offer consumers tools to estimate costs and provide feedback. CMS itself has indicated that only a small number of hospitals across the country are not in compliance. We will continue to find ways to make sure consumers and patients have the most current information available to make an informed healthcare decision.”  

Baylor Scott & White Health

  • 2021 Net assets: $8.6 billion
  • 2018 Net assets: $6 billion
  • Top Paid Exec Salary: $4.5 million
  • Covid-19 Aid Received: $1 billion source
  • Hospitals in compliance: 9 out of the 41 reviewed. Baylor Scott & White Health has 51 hospitals.
  • Percent compliance: 22%

A Baylor Scott & White Health spokesperson said the report is wrong and that their facilities are complying, and noted, like many others, that CMS determines compliance.

“Baylor University Medical Center and Baylor Scott & White Medical Center – Temple have been found to be in compliance with Federal price transparency rules by CMS,” the spokesperson said. “Further, all remaining Baylor Scott & White facilities are in alignment with the facilities found to be in compliance by CMS.” 

“In addition, the Texas Health and Human Services Commission has reviewed all Baylor Scott & White facilities and found them to be in compliance with state price transparency rules.”

Bon Secours Mercy Health

  • 2021 Net assets: $9.8 billion
  • 2018 Net assets: $1.8 billion
  • Top Paid Exec Salary: $15.7 million
  • Covid-19 Aid Received: $1.1 billion source
  • Hospitals in compliance: None of the 39 reviewed. Bon Secours has 48 hospitals.
  • Percent compliance: 0%

A hospital spokesperson did not return a request for comment by our deadline.

Houston Methodist

  • 2021 Net assets: $10.1 billion
  • 2018 Net assets: $5 billion
  • Top Paid Exec Salary: $3.5 million
  • Covid-19 Aid Received: $580 million source
  • Hospitals in compliance: None of the three reviewed. Houston Methodist has eight hospitals.
  • Percent compliance: 0%

A spokesperson linked to their standard charge file, and said, “CMS and the state of Texas consider us compliant under federal law.”

Kaiser Permanente

  • 2021 Net assets: $52.8 billion
  • 2018 Net assets: $32.2 billion
  • Top Paid Exec Salary: $6.2 million
  • Covid-19 Aid Received: $500 million source
  • Kaiser Permanente returned its Covid-aid, except Kaiser Foundation’s subsidiary, Maui Health System, which kept $11.8 million in aid.
  • Hospitals in compliance: Three out of Kaiser Permanente’s 39 reviewed hospitals.
  • Percent compliance: 7.7%

A hospital spokesperson did not return a request for comment by our deadline.

New York-Presbyterian Healthcare System

  • 2021 Net assets: $11 billion
  • 2018 Net assets: $8.3 billion
  • Top Paid Exec Salary: $12.4 million
  • Covid-19 Aid Received: $124 million source and source
  • Hospitals in compliance: None of the 10 reviewed. New York-Presbyterian has 10 hospitals.
  • Percent compliance: 0%

A hospital spokesperson did not return a request for comment by our deadline.

Providence St. Joseph Health

  • 2021 Net assets: $17.7 billion
  • 2018 Net assets: $14 billion
  • Top Paid Exec Salary: $10.9 million
  • Covid-19 Aid Received: $3 billion source
  • Hospitals in compliance: None of Providence St. Joseph’s 52 hospitals.
  • Percent compliance: 0%

A hospital spokesperson did not return a request for comment by our deadline.

Texas Health Resources

  • 2021 Net assets: $9.5 billion
  • 2018 Net assets: $6 billion
  • Top Paid Exec Salary: $2.9 million
  • Covid-19 Aid Received: $283 million source
  • Hospitals in compliance: Not one of the nine reviewed. Texas Health has 27 hospitals.
  • Percent compliance: 0%

“Texas Health is compliant with federal and state price transparency legislation,” spokesperson Kimberly Walton said. “Patients should have access to tools to help them understand their out-of-pocket costs for care and Texas Health is committed to providing the best possible estimation of healthcare services to our patients.”

“Everyone’s situation is unique, and a patient’s out-of-pocket expense is based on their healthcare plan, benefit coverage, current health year expenditures and clinical needs. Texas Health offers a cost estimation tool on its website, but what sets us apart is the more personalized service of our financial counselors. We have invested in a team that provides much more personalized assistance and service than any web tool.”  

Trinity Health

  • 2021 Net assets: $18.5 billion
  • 2018 Net assets: $13.3 billion
  • Top Paid Exec Salary: $2.9 million
  • Covid-19 Aid Received: $2.3 billion source
  • Hospitals in compliance: 2 out of the 61 reviewed. Trinity has 88 hospitals, in total.
  • Percent compliance: 3%

A hospital spokesperson did not return a request for comment by our deadline.

UPMC (University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Group)

  • 2021 Net assets: $11.3 billion
  • 2018 Net assets: $5.7 billion
  • Top Paid Exec Salary: $9.5 million
  • Covid-19 Aid Received: $1.4 billion source
  • Hospitals in compliance: None of the 33 UPMC hospitals reviewed of its 40 total.
  • Percent compliance: 0%

A hospital spokesperson did not return a request for comment by our deadline.

Critics

Frustrated by lax enforcement against hospitals that aren’t complying with the rule, NYC Councilwoman Julie Menin, a Democrat representing parts of Manhattan, sponsored a bill in New York City Council to create the Office of Healthcare Accountability.

“The office would have the authority to publish and compare hospital pricing, audit city expenditures on employee-related health care costs, grade hospitals on their compliance with pricing transparency measures, and make recommendations on how to lower these costs,” she and co-author Councilwoman Carmen De La Rosa wrote in a February op-ed in the New York Daily News.

They called out the New York City hospitals that are not following the law.

“Private health care networks such as New York–Presbyterian, Montefiore Medical Center and NYU Langone, continue to skirt the intent of federal price regulations by having price transparency tools that are confusing, time consuming and designed to not be user friendly,” the councilwomen wrote.

Summary

Weighty questions jump from these facts:

  • If we are spending more, and hospital assets are increasing markedly, why has U.S. life expectancy dropped 2.5 years?

  • Are these “non-profit” hospitals operating in the public interest or their private interest?

  • Why don’t hospital systems pay back the Covid aid, like Kaiser Permanente?

  • Are these non-profit hospitals gaming the system as public healthcare charities operating under IRS section 501(c)3 of the tax code?

  • Why are systems that score less than 100 percent compliance on price transparency allowed to keep taxpayer-funded bailout dollars?

Compliance is not impossible. Patient Rights Advocate found 489 hospitals with “exemplary” files and described as “easily accessible, downloadable, machine readable, and including all negotiated rates by payor and plan.”

The federal price transparency rules are clear. One of every four hospitals follow those rules. They comply with price disclosure. CMS needs to enforce the rules on three-quarters of hospitals that ignore those same rules.

America’s non-profit hospitals must justify their pandemic profiteering. In the top 20 largest non-profits, for every $1 in Covid bailout from the U.S. taxpayer, their net assets jumped -- on average -- $5.

The American people have paid a fortune to these hospitals -- $23 billion in Covid aid alone. The least they could do is heal themselves.

ADDITIONAL READING

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/14/2023 - 13:30

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Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine

Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A…

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Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Harvard Medical School professor who refused to get a COVID-19 vaccine has been terminated, according to documents reviewed by The Epoch Times.

Martin Kulldorff, epidemiologist and statistician, at his home in Ashford, Conn., on Feb. 11, 2022. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

Martin Kulldorff, an epidemiologist, was fired by Mass General Brigham in November 2021 over noncompliance with the hospital’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate after his requests for exemptions from the mandate were denied, according to one document. Mr. Kulldorff was also placed on leave by Harvard Medical School (HMS) because his appointment as professor of medicine there “depends upon” holding a position at the hospital, another document stated.

Mr. Kulldorff asked HMS in late 2023 how he could return to his position and was told he was being fired.

You would need to hold an eligible appointment with a Harvard-affiliated institution for your HMS academic appointment to continue,” Dr. Grace Huang, dean for faculty affairs, told the epidemiologist and biostatistician.

She said the lack of an appointment, combined with college rules that cap leaves of absence at two years, meant he was being terminated.

Mr. Kulldorff disclosed the firing for the first time this month.

“While I can’t comment on the specifics due to employment confidentiality protections that preclude us from doing so, I can confirm that his employment agreement was terminated November 10, 2021,” a spokesperson for Brigham and Women’s Hospital told The Epoch Times via email.

Mass General Brigham granted just 234 exemption requests out of 2,402 received, according to court filings in an ongoing case that alleges discrimination.

The hospital said previously, “We received a number of exemption requests, and each request was carefully considered by a knowledgeable team of reviewers.

A lot of other people received exemptions, but I did not,” Mr. Kulldorff told The Epoch Times.

Mr. Kulldorff was originally hired by HMS but switched departments in 2015 to work at the Department of Medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, which is part of Mass General Brigham and affiliated with HMS.

Harvard Medical School has affiliation agreements with several Boston hospitals which it neither owns nor operationally controls,” an HMS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email. “Hospital-based faculty, such as Mr. Kulldorff, are employed by one of the affiliates, not by HMS, and require an active hospital appointment to maintain an academic appointment at Harvard Medical School.”

HMS confirmed that some faculty, who are tenured or on the tenure track, do not require hospital appointments.

Natural Immunity

Before the COVID-19 vaccines became available, Mr. Kulldorff contracted COVID-19. He was hospitalized but eventually recovered.

That gave him a form of protection known as natural immunity. According to a number of studies, including papers from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, natural immunity is better than the protection bestowed by vaccines.

Other studies have found that people with natural immunity face a higher risk of problems after vaccination.

Mr. Kulldorff expressed his concerns about receiving a vaccine in his request for a medical exemption, pointing out a lack of data for vaccinating people who suffer from the same issue he does.

I already had superior infection-acquired immunity; and it was risky to vaccinate me without proper efficacy and safety studies on patients with my type of immune deficiency,” Mr. Kulldorff wrote in an essay.

In his request for a religious exemption, he highlighted an Israel study that was among the first to compare protection after infection to protection after vaccination. Researchers found that the vaccinated had less protection than the naturally immune.

“Having had COVID disease, I have stronger longer lasting immunity than those vaccinated (Gazit et al). Lacking scientific rationale, vaccine mandates are religious dogma, and I request a religious exemption from COVID vaccination,” he wrote.

Both requests were denied.

Mr. Kulldorff is still unvaccinated.

“I had COVID. I had it badly. So I have infection-acquired immunity. So I don’t need the vaccine,” he told The Epoch Times.

Dissenting Voice

Mr. Kulldorff has been a prominent dissenting voice during the COVID-19 pandemic, countering messaging from the government and many doctors that the COVID-19 vaccines were needed, regardless of prior infection.

He spoke out in an op-ed in April 2021, for instance, against requiring people to provide proof of vaccination to attend shows, go to school, and visit restaurants.

The idea that everybody needs to be vaccinated is as scientifically baseless as the idea that nobody does. Covid vaccines are essential for older, high-risk people and their caretakers and advisable for many others. But those who’ve been infected are already immune,” he wrote at the time.

Mr. Kulldorff later co-authored the Great Barrington Declaration, which called for focused protection of people at high risk while removing restrictions for younger, healthy people.

Harsh restrictions such as school closures “will cause irreparable damage” if not lifted, the declaration stated.

The declaration drew criticism from Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Rochelle Walensky, who became the head of the CDC, among others.

In a competing document, Dr. Walensky and others said that “relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed” and that “uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity(3) and mortality across the whole population.”

“Those who are pushing these vaccine mandates and vaccine passports—vaccine fanatics, I would call them—to me they have done much more damage during this one year than the anti-vaxxers have done in two decades,” Mr. Kulldorff later said in an EpochTV interview. “I would even say that these vaccine fanatics, they are the biggest anti-vaxxers that we have right now. They’re doing so much more damage to vaccine confidence than anybody else.

Surveys indicate that people have less trust now in the CDC and other health institutions than before the pandemic, and data from the CDC and elsewhere show that fewer people are receiving the new COVID-19 vaccines and other shots.

Support

The disclosure that Mr. Kulldorff was fired drew criticism of Harvard and support for Mr. Kulldorff.

The termination “is a massive and incomprehensible injustice,” Dr. Aaron Kheriaty, an ethics expert who was fired from the University of California–Irvine School of Medicine for not getting a COVID-19 vaccine because he had natural immunity, said on X.

The academy is full of people who declined vaccines—mostly with dubious exemptions—and yet Harvard fires the one professor who happens to speak out against government policies.” Dr. Vinay Prasad, an epidemiologist at the University of California–San Francisco, wrote in a blog post. “It looks like Harvard has weaponized its policies and selectively enforces them.”

A petition to reinstate Mr. Kulldorff has garnered more than 1,800 signatures.

Some other doctors said the decision to let Mr. Kulldorff go was correct.

“Actions have consequence,” Dr. Alastair McAlpine, a Canadian doctor, wrote on X. He said Mr. Kulldorff had “publicly undermine[d] public health.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 21:00

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“Extreme Events”: US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In “Large Excess Over Trend”

"Extreme Events": US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In "Large Excess Over Trend"

Cancer deaths in the United States spiked in 2021…

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"Extreme Events": US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In "Large Excess Over Trend"

Cancer deaths in the United States spiked in 2021 and 2022 among 15-44 year-olds "in large excess over trend," marking jumps of 5.6% and 7.9% respectively vs. a rise of 1.7% in 2020, according to a new preprint study from deep-dive research firm, Phinance Technologies.

Algeria, Carlos et. al "US -Death Trends for Neoplasms ICD codes: C00-D48, Ages 15-44", ResearchGate, March. 2024 P. 7

Extreme Events

The report, which relies on data from the CDC, paints a troubling picture.

"We show a rise in excess mortality from neoplasms reported as underlying cause of death, which started in 2020 (1.7%) and accelerated substantially in 2021 (5.6%) and 2022 (7.9%). The increase in excess mortality in both 2021 (Z-score of 11.8) and 2022 (Z-score of 16.5) are highly statistically significant (extreme events)," according to the authors.

That said, co-author, David Wiseman, PhD (who has 86 publications to his name), leaves the cause an open question - suggesting it could either be a "novel phenomenon," Covid-19, or the Covid-19 vaccine.

"The results indicate that from 2021 a novel phenomenon leading to increased neoplasm deaths appears to be present in individuals aged 15 to 44 in the US," reads the report.

The authors suggest that the cause may be the result of "an unexpected rise in the incidence of rapidly growing fatal cancers," and/or "a reduction in survival in existing cancer cases."

They also address the possibility that "access to utilization of cancer screening and treatment" may be a factor - the notion that pandemic-era lockdowns resulted in fewer visits to the doctor. Also noted is that "Cancers tend to be slowly-developing diseases with remarkably stable death rates and only small variations over time," which makes "any temporal association between a possible explanatory factor (such as COVID-19, the novel COVID-19 vaccines, or other factor(s)) difficult to establish."

That said, a ZeroHedge review of the CDC data reveals that it does not provide information on duration of illness prior to death - so while it's not mentioned in the preprint, it can't rule out so-called 'turbo cancers' - reportedly rapidly developing cancers, the existence of which has been largely anecdotal (and widely refuted by the usual suspects).

While the Phinance report is extremely careful not to draw conclusions, researcher "Ethical Skeptic" kicked the barn door open in a Thursday post on X - showing a strong correlation between "cancer incidence & mortality" coinciding with the rollout of the Covid mRNA vaccine.

Phinance principal Ed Dowd commented on the post, noting that "Cancer is suddenly an accelerating growth industry!"

Continued:

Bottom line - hard data is showing alarming trends, which the CDC and other agencies have a requirement to explore and answer truthfully - and people are asking #WhereIsTheCDC.

We aren't holding our breath.

Wiseman, meanwhile, points out that Pfizer and several other companies are making "significant investments in cancer drugs, post COVID."

Phinance

We've featured several of Phinance's self-funded deep dives into pandemic data that nobody else is doing. If you'd like to support them, click here.

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 16:55

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Gen Z, The Most Pessimistic Generation In History, May Decide The Election

Gen Z, The Most Pessimistic Generation In History, May Decide The Election

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Young adults are more…

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Gen Z, The Most Pessimistic Generation In History, May Decide The Election

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Young adults are more skeptical of government and pessimistic about the future than any living generation before them.

This is with reason, and it’s likely to decide the election.

Rough Years and the Most Pessimism Ever

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article on The Rough Years That Turned Gen Z Into America’s Most Disillusioned Voters.

Young adults in Generation Z—those born in 1997 or after—have emerged from the pandemic feeling more disillusioned than any living generation before them, according to long-running surveys and interviews with dozens of young people around the country. They worry they’ll never make enough money to attain the security previous generations have achieved, citing their delayed launch into adulthood, an impenetrable housing market and loads of student debt.

And they’re fed up with policymakers from both parties.

Washington is moving closer to passing legislation that would ban or force the sale of TikTok, a platform beloved by millions of young people in the U.S. Several young people interviewed by The Wall Street Journal said they spend hours each day on the app and use it as their main source of news.

“It’s funny how they quickly pass this bill about this TikTok situation. What about schools that are getting shot up? We’re not going to pass a bill about that?” Gaddie asked. “No, we’re going to worry about TikTok and that just shows you where their head is…. I feel like they don’t really care about what’s going on with humanity.”

Gen Z’s widespread gloominess is manifesting in unparalleled skepticism of Washington and a feeling of despair that leaders of either party can help. Young Americans’ entire political memories are subsumed by intense partisanship and warnings about the looming end of everything from U.S. democracy to the planet. When the darkest days of the pandemic started to end, inflation reached 40-year highs. The right to an abortion was overturned. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East raged.

Dissatisfaction is pushing some young voters to third-party candidates in this year’s presidential race and causing others to consider staying home on Election Day or leaving the top of the ticket blank. While young people typically vote at lower rates, a small number of Gen Z voters could make the difference in the election, which four years ago was decided by tens of thousands of votes in several swing states.

Roughly 41 million Gen Z Americans—ages 18 to 27—will be eligible to vote this year, according to Tufts University.

Gen Z is among the most liberal segments of the electorate, according to surveys, but recent polling shows them favoring Biden by only a slim margin. Some are unmoved by those who warn that a vote against Biden is effectively a vote for Trump, arguing that isn’t enough to earn their support.

Confidence

When asked if they had confidence in a range of public institutions, Gen Z’s faith in them was generally below that of the older cohorts at the same point in their lives. 

One-third of Gen Z Americans described themselves as conservative, according to NORC’s 2022 General Social Survey. That is a larger share identifying as conservative than when millennials, Gen X and baby boomers took the survey when they were the same age, though some of the differences were small and within the survey’s margin of error.

More young people now say they find it hard to have hope for the world than at any time since at least 1976, according to a University of Michigan survey that has tracked public sentiment among 12th-graders for nearly five decades. Young people today are less optimistic than any generation in decades that they’ll get a professional job or surpass the success of their parents, the long-running survey has found. They increasingly believe the system is stacked against them and support major changes to the way the country operates.

Gen Z future Outcome

“It’s the starkest difference I’ve documented in 20 years of doing this research,” said Twenge, the author of the book “Generations.” The pandemic, she said, amplified trends among Gen Z that have existed for years: chronic isolation, a lack of social interaction and a propensity to spend large amounts of time online.

A 2020 study found past epidemics have left a lasting impression on young people around the world, creating a lack of confidence in political institutions and their leaders. The study, which analyzed decades of Gallup World polling from dozens of countries, found the decline in trust among young people typically persists for two decades.

Young people are more likely than older voters to have a pessimistic view of the economy and disapprove of Biden’s handling of inflation, according to the recent Journal poll. Among people under 30, Biden leads Trump by 3 percentage points, 35% to 32%, with 14% undecided and the remaining shares going to third-party candidates, including 10% to independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Economic Reality

Gen Z may be the first generation in US history that is not better off than their parents.

Many have given up on the idea they will ever be able to afford a home.

The economy is allegedly booming (I disagree). Regardless, stress over debt is high with younger millennials and zoomers.

This has been a constant theme of mine for many months.

Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar

Credit card debt surged to a record high in the fourth quarter. Even more troubling is a steep climb in 90 day or longer delinquencies.

Record High Credit Card Debt

Credit card debt rose to a new record high of $1.13 trillion, up $50 billion in the quarter. Even more troubling is the surge in serious delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due.

For nearly all age groups, serious delinquencies are the highest since 2011.

Auto Loan Delinquencies

Serious delinquencies on auto loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29.Age group 30-39 is also troubling. Serious delinquencies for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.

For further discussion please see Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar, Especially Age Group 18 to 39

Generational Homeownership Rates

Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment List

The above chart is from the Apartment List’s 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report

Those struggling with rent are more likely to be Millennials and Zoomers than Generation X, Baby Boomers, or members of the Silent Generation.

The same age groups struggling with credit card and auto delinquencies.

On Average Everything is Great

Average it up, and things look pretty good. This is why we have seen countless stories attempting to explain why people should be happy.

Krugman Blames Partisanship

OK, there is a fair amount of partisanship in the polls.

However, Biden isn’t struggling from partisanship alone. If that was the reason, Biden would not be polling so miserably with Democrats in general, blacks, and younger voters.

OK, there is a fair amount of partisanship in the polls.

However, Biden isn’t struggling from partisanship alone. If that was the reason, Biden would not be polling so miserably with Democrats in general, blacks, and younger voters.

This allegedly booming economy left behind the renters and everyone under the age of 40 struggling to make ends meet.

Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans

Buy Now Pay Later, BNPL, plans are increasingly popular. It’s another sign of consumer credit stress.

For discussion, please see Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans, It’s a Big Trap

The study did not break things down by home owners vs renters, but I strongly suspect most of the BNPL use is by renters.

What About Jobs?

Another seemingly strong jobs headline falls apart on closer scrutiny. The massive divergence between jobs and employment continued into February.

Nonfarm payrolls and employment levels from the BLS, chart by Mish.

Payrolls vs Employment Gains Since March 2023

  • Nonfarm Payrolls: 2,602,000

  • Employment Level: +144,000

  • Full Time Employment: -284,000

For more details of the weakening labor markets, please see Jobs Up 275,000 Employment Down 184,000

CPI Hot Again

CPI Data from the BLS, chart by Mish.

For discussion of the CPI inflation data for February, please see CPI Hot Again, Rent Up at Least 0.4 Percent for 30 Straight Months

Also note the Producer Price Index (PPI) Much Hotter Than Expected in February

Major Economic Cracks

There are economic cracks in spending, cracks in employment, and cracks in delinquencies.

But there are no cracks in the CPI. It’s coming down much slower than expected. And the PPI appears to have bottomed.

Add it up: Inflation + Recession = Stagflation.

Election Impact

In 2020, younger voters turned out in the biggest wave in history. And they voted for Biden.

Younger voters are not as likely to vote in 2024, and they are less likely to vote for Biden.

Millions of voters will not vote for either Trump or Biden. Net, this will impact Biden more. The base will not decide the election, but the Trump base is far more energized than the Biden base.

If Biden signs a TikTok ban, that alone could tip the election.

If No Labels ever gets its act together, I suspect it will siphon more votes from Biden than Trump. But many will just sit it out.

“We’re just kind of over it,” Noemi Peña, 20, a Tucson, Ariz., resident who works in a juice bar, said of her generation’s attitude toward politics. “We don’t even want to hear about it anymore.” Peña said she might not vote because she thinks it won’t change anything and “there’s just gonna be more fighting.” Biden won Arizona in 2020 by just over 10,000 votes. 

The Journal noted nearly one-third of voters under 30 have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump, a higher number than all older voters. Sixty-three percent of young voters think neither party adequately represents them.

Young voters in 2020 were energized to vote against Trump. Now they have thrown in the towel.

And Biden telling everyone how great the economy is only rubs salt in the wound.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 11:40

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