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Top Biotech Opportunities as the Revolution Accelerates (NVAX, ATRX, ILMN, OCGN, VRTX, CMPS)

We are currently living through several simultaneous technology revolutions all of which are set to change everything about how we live our lives.  The most important of them are encompassed by artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced…

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2 years ago

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We are currently living through several simultaneous technology revolutions all of which are set to change everything about how we live our lives. 

The most important of them are encompassed by artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced biotechnology, which now includes ideas like mental health and genomics, and may remain increasingly in focus in the aftermath of the pandemic.

It should also be obvious that these revolutions reinforce each other. For example, our ability to identify and cure diseases will be augmented by artificial intelligence platforms running at hyper-speed on quantum computation systems.

The biotech space, in particular, has an important advantage over other non-cyclical technology growth themes: it has a very low correlation with the broad market. That allows investors to speculate without worrying about major macro risks like inflation, recessions, monetary policy hikes, new lockdowns, geopolitical disruptions, or other unknown market hurdles.

With that in mind, we focus here on some of the more interesting biotech opportunities on the menu right now for investors.

Novavax Inc. (Nasdaq:NVAX) focuses on the discovery, development and commercialization of vaccines to prevent infectious diseases. It provides vaccines for COVID-19, seasonal flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Ebola, and Middle East respiratory syndrome. 

The stock has repeatedly been in the news as “the next big vaccine story in the market”. In fact, many analysts believe NVAX’s vaccine solution could be superior to those on the market now because it is simpler – not involving mRNA – and very effective as well as being easy to store and transport.

Novavax Inc. (Nasdaq:NVAX) added to that story by recently announcing the completion of its rolling regulatory submission to the U.K. Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) for authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate. The company’s application for Conditional Marketing Authorization (CMA) marks the first submission for authorization of a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine in the United Kingdom.

“This submission brings Novavax significantly closer to delivering millions of doses of the first protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, built on a proven, well-understood vaccine platform that demonstrated high efficacy against multiple strains of the coronavirus,” said Stanley C. Erck, President and Chief Executive Officer, Novavax. “We look forward to MHRA’s review and will be prepared to deliver vaccine doses following what we anticipate will be a positive decision. We thank the clinical trial participants and trial sites in the United Kingdom, as well as the U.K. Vaccines Taskforce, for their support and vital contributions to this program.”

If you’re long this stock, then you’re liking how the stock has responded to the announcement. NVAX shares have been moving higher over the past week overall, pushing about 3% to the upside on above average trading volume. Over the past month, shares of the stock have suffered from clear selling pressure, dropping by roughly -30%. 

Novavax Inc. (Nasdaq:NVAX) managed to rope in revenues totaling $298M in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of 738.6%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company has a strong balance sheet, with cash levels exceeding current liabilities ($2.1B against $1.7B).

Adhera Therapeutics Inc (OTC US:ATRX) is a particularly interesting name in the biotech space because it seems to be flying under the radar despite its strong IP foundation and the enormous size of the markets its pipeline is targeting.

First of all, ATRX has licensed two promising compounds, MLR-1019 (armesocarb) and MLR-1023 (tolimidone), from Melior Pharmaceuticals for development, using its own expertise. Through these compounds, the company is now targeting the $6 billion underserved Parkinson’s market, the $100-plus billion diabetes market, and the $30-plus billion non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, or “NASH”, space.

Adhera Therapeutics Inc (OTC US:ATRX), on this last point, recently announced that it has extended its relationship with Melior through the addition of exclusive development rights for two more indications to the existing licensing agreement covering MLR-1023 (tolimidone), one of the world’s only potent and specific lyn kinase activators. 

According to its release, Adhera has now been granted exclusive rights to advance development of MLR-1023 for NASH as well as pulmonary inflammation. The company noted that it intends to explore abbreviated clinical trial opportunities for these indications based upon completed clinical trials including more than 700 patients treated with MLR-1023 defining strong safety and tolerability profiles.

That suggests it is already potentially further along in the NASH race than many competitors without the market having had any means to discount that progress through upside share repricing. MLR-1023 has reportedly produced compelling data to date, including improvement in NAFLD (Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease) Activity Score, or NAS, decreased liver weight, reduction in steatosis, improved insulin sensitivity, anti-fibrotic activity, and reduction in adiposity. Other research on MLR-1023 by independent investigators has revealed modulation of lipid pathways to reduce fat accumulation in the liver and improved cell survival and hepatocellular regeneration, lending further evidence that clinical studies are warranted for the indication.

Adhera Therapeutics Inc (OTCMKTS:ATRX) CEO, Andrew Kucharchuk, stated in the release, “MLR-1023 is a remarkable compound that positions us to address some largely unattended, yet immense markets, including diabetes, NASH, and the swath of maladies where pulmonary edema is a problem, starting with infections with the potential to explore cardiovascular diseases in the future. We are thrilled to have a partner in Dr. Andrew Reaume and his team at the Melior family of companies and look forward to shepherding all their exciting work to the next stage of development.”

Illumina Inc. (Nasdaq:ILMN) engages in the development, manufacturing, and marketing of life science tools and integrated systems for large-scale analysis of genetic variation and function. It operates through Core Illumina segment, which serves customers in the research, clinical and applied markets, and enable the adoption of a variety of genomic solutions. 

The firm’s products include instruments, kits and reagents, selection tools, and software and analysis. Its services include sequencing and microarray services; proactive instrument monitoring; and instrument services, training, and consulting. 

Illumina Inc. (Nasdaq:ILMN) recently announced an agreement with Israel’s Ministry of Health (MoH) for a pilot program to implement the use of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) in critically-ill infants suspected of having a genetic disorder in neonatal intensive care units (NICU). The program, led by the Genetics Institute (Tel-Aviv Sourasky Medical Center), will evaluate the use of WGS in routine care as an effective first-tier diagnostic tool to enable faster identification of disease-causing genetic abnormalities in infants, aiding their clinical care and management.

“Evidence from other countries shows that whole-genome sequencing offers significant benefits for the diagnosis of suspected genetic disease in critically-ill infants. Based on this international experience, our aim is to implement and provide this approach as a diagnostic assay in all neonatal intensive care wards, ideally replacing the routine diagnostic tests currently used,” said Dr. Amihood Singer, Head of Community Genetics Department at the Ministry of Health, Israel.

Even in light of this news, ILMN hasn’t really done much of anything over the past week, with shares logging no net movement over that period. ILMN shares have been relatively flat over the past month of action, with very little net movement during that period. 

Illumina Inc. (Nasdaq:ILMN) managed to rope in revenues totaling $1.1B in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of 77.9%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company has a strong balance sheet, with cash levels exceeding current liabilities ($4.3B against $874M).

Other compelling names in the biotech space include Ocugen Inc. (Nasdaq:OCGN), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq:VRTX), and COMPASS Pathways PLC ADR (Nasdaq:CMPS).

Please make sure to read and completely understand our disclaimer at https://www.wallstreetpr.com/disclaimer. We may be compensated for posting this content on our website by EDM Media LLC. For questions, comments or suggestions please contact ir@edm.media.

The post Top Biotech Opportunities as the Revolution Accelerates (NVAX, ATRX, ILMN, OCGN, VRTX, CMPS) appeared first on Wall Street PR.

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International

The next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife

Bird flu is decimating species already threatened by climate change and habitat loss.

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40 mins ago

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March 11, 2024

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I am a conservation biologist who studies emerging infectious diseases. When people ask me what I think the next pandemic will be I often say that we are in the midst of one – it’s just afflicting a great many species more than ours.

I am referring to the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), otherwise known as bird flu, which has killed millions of birds and unknown numbers of mammals, particularly during the past three years.

This is the strain that emerged in domestic geese in China in 1997 and quickly jumped to humans in south-east Asia with a mortality rate of around 40-50%. My research group encountered the virus when it killed a mammal, an endangered Owston’s palm civet, in a captive breeding programme in Cuc Phuong National Park Vietnam in 2005.

How these animals caught bird flu was never confirmed. Their diet is mainly earthworms, so they had not been infected by eating diseased poultry like many captive tigers in the region.

This discovery prompted us to collate all confirmed reports of fatal infection with bird flu to assess just how broad a threat to wildlife this virus might pose.

This is how a newly discovered virus in Chinese poultry came to threaten so much of the world’s biodiversity.

H5N1 originated on a Chinese poultry farm in 1997. ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

The first signs

Until December 2005, most confirmed infections had been found in a few zoos and rescue centres in Thailand and Cambodia. Our analysis in 2006 showed that nearly half (48%) of all the different groups of birds (known to taxonomists as “orders”) contained a species in which a fatal infection of bird flu had been reported. These 13 orders comprised 84% of all bird species.

We reasoned 20 years ago that the strains of H5N1 circulating were probably highly pathogenic to all bird orders. We also showed that the list of confirmed infected species included those that were globally threatened and that important habitats, such as Vietnam’s Mekong delta, lay close to reported poultry outbreaks.

Mammals known to be susceptible to bird flu during the early 2000s included primates, rodents, pigs and rabbits. Large carnivores such as Bengal tigers and clouded leopards were reported to have been killed, as well as domestic cats.

Our 2006 paper showed the ease with which this virus crossed species barriers and suggested it might one day produce a pandemic-scale threat to global biodiversity.

Unfortunately, our warnings were correct.

A roving sickness

Two decades on, bird flu is killing species from the high Arctic to mainland Antarctica.

In the past couple of years, bird flu has spread rapidly across Europe and infiltrated North and South America, killing millions of poultry and a variety of bird and mammal species. A recent paper found that 26 countries have reported at least 48 mammal species that have died from the virus since 2020, when the latest increase in reported infections started.

Not even the ocean is safe. Since 2020, 13 species of aquatic mammal have succumbed, including American sea lions, porpoises and dolphins, often dying in their thousands in South America. A wide range of scavenging and predatory mammals that live on land are now also confirmed to be susceptible, including mountain lions, lynx, brown, black and polar bears.

The UK alone has lost over 75% of its great skuas and seen a 25% decline in northern gannets. Recent declines in sandwich terns (35%) and common terns (42%) were also largely driven by the virus.

Scientists haven’t managed to completely sequence the virus in all affected species. Research and continuous surveillance could tell us how adaptable it ultimately becomes, and whether it can jump to even more species. We know it can already infect humans – one or more genetic mutations may make it more infectious.

At the crossroads

Between January 1 2003 and December 21 2023, 882 cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus were reported from 23 countries, of which 461 (52%) were fatal.

Of these fatal cases, more than half were in Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Laos. Poultry-to-human infections were first recorded in Cambodia in December 2003. Intermittent cases were reported until 2014, followed by a gap until 2023, yielding 41 deaths from 64 cases. The subtype of H5N1 virus responsible has been detected in poultry in Cambodia since 2014. In the early 2000s, the H5N1 virus circulating had a high human mortality rate, so it is worrying that we are now starting to see people dying after contact with poultry again.

It’s not just H5 subtypes of bird flu that concern humans. The H10N1 virus was originally isolated from wild birds in South Korea, but has also been reported in samples from China and Mongolia.

Recent research found that these particular virus subtypes may be able to jump to humans after they were found to be pathogenic in laboratory mice and ferrets. The first person who was confirmed to be infected with H10N5 died in China on January 27 2024, but this patient was also suffering from seasonal flu (H3N2). They had been exposed to live poultry which also tested positive for H10N5.

Species already threatened with extinction are among those which have died due to bird flu in the past three years. The first deaths from the virus in mainland Antarctica have just been confirmed in skuas, highlighting a looming threat to penguin colonies whose eggs and chicks skuas prey on. Humboldt penguins have already been killed by the virus in Chile.

A colony of king penguins.
Remote penguin colonies are already threatened by climate change. AndreAnita/Shutterstock

How can we stem this tsunami of H5N1 and other avian influenzas? Completely overhaul poultry production on a global scale. Make farms self-sufficient in rearing eggs and chicks instead of exporting them internationally. The trend towards megafarms containing over a million birds must be stopped in its tracks.

To prevent the worst outcomes for this virus, we must revisit its primary source: the incubator of intensive poultry farms.

Diana Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

Published

2 hours ago

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March 11, 2024

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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A major cruise line is testing a monthly subscription service

The Cruise Scarlet Summer Season Pass was designed with remote workers in mind.

Published

2 hours ago

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March 11, 2024

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While going on a cruise once meant disconnecting from the world when between ports because any WiFi available aboard was glitchy and expensive, advances in technology over the last decade have enabled millions to not only stay in touch with home but even work remotely.

With such remote workers and digital nomads in mind, Virgin Voyages has designed a monthly pass that gives those who want to work from the seas a WFH setup on its Scarlet Lady ship — while the latter acronym usually means "work from home," the cruise line is advertising as "work from the helm.”

Related: Royal Caribbean shares a warning with passengers

"Inspired by Richard Branson's belief and track record that brilliant work is best paired with a hearty dose of fun, we're welcoming Sailors on board Scarlet Lady for a full month to help them achieve that perfect work-life balance," Virgin Voyages said in announcing its new promotion. "Take a vacation away from your monotonous work-from-home set up (sorry, but…not sorry) and start taking calls from your private balcony overlooking the Mediterranean sea."

A man looks through his phone while sitting in a hot tub on a cruise ship.

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This is how much it'll cost you to work from a cruise ship for a month

While the single most important feature for successful work at sea — WiFi — is already available for free on Virgin cruises, the new Scarlet Summer Season Pass includes a faster connection, a $10 daily coffee credit, access to a private rooftop, and other member-only areas as well as wash and fold laundry service that Virgin advertises as a perk that will allow one to concentrate on work

More Travel:

The pass starts at $9,990 for a two-guest cabin and is available for four monthlong cruises departing in June, July, August, and September — each departs from ports such as Barcelona, Marseille, and Palma de Mallorca and spends four weeks touring around the Mediterranean.

Longer cruises are becoming more common, here's why

The new pass is essentially a version of an upgraded cruise package with additional perks but is specifically tailored to those who plan on working from the ship as an opportunity to market to them.

"Stay connected to your work with the fastest at-sea internet in the biz when you want and log-off to let the exquisite landscape of the Mediterranean inspire you when you need," reads the promotional material for the pass.

Amid the rise of remote work post-pandemic, cruise lines have been seeing growing interest in longer journeys in which many of the passengers not just vacation in the traditional sense but work from a mobile office.

In 2023, Turkish cruise line operator Miray even started selling cabins on a three-year tour around the world but the endeavor hit the rocks after one of the engineers declared the MV Gemini ship the company planned to use for the journey "unseaworthy" and the cruise ship line dealt with a PR scandal that ultimately sank the project before it could take off.

While three years at sea would have set a record as the longest cruise journey on the market, companies such as Royal Caribbean  (RCL) (both with its namesake brand and its Celebrity Cruises line) have been offering increasingly long cruises that serve as many people’s temporary homes and cross through multiple continents.

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