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Token adoption grows as real-world assets move on-chain

From real estate and digital art to government bonds, tokenizing real-world assets is no longer a thing of the future.
While critics…

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From real estate and digital art to government bonds, tokenizing real-world assets is no longer a thing of the future.

While critics wrote off much of the initial hype surrounding the tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market, the sector has been on a tear over the past year or so. In fact, Boston Consulting Group expects the tokenization of global illiquid assets to be a $16 trillion industry by the end of the decade.

A variety of asset categories are actively being tokenized and garnering investments, with recent data suggesting that the total value of tokenized real-world assets reached an all-time high of $2.75 billion in August. And while the metric has slipped since then, it still stands at around a respectable $2.49 billion as of Sept. 30.

RWA market cap and share change. Source: Galaxy Research

As per a joint survey by research and advisory firm Celent and American banking behemoth BNY Mellon, 91% of institutional investors are interested in putting their money into tokenized assets, with 97% agreeing that tokenization stands to revolutionize the realm of asset management.

Matthijs de Vries, co-founder of AllianceBlock — a firm building a decentralized tokenized market — told Cointelegraph that these types of statistics give a glimpse into the impact that institutional-grade investments have on the industry.

“This trend is expected to result in exponential growth in the tokenized RWA industry, particularly as more liquidity flows into the space. This will lead to a more sustainable bull market with less capital flight at its peak,” he added.

Why the sudden spike in interest?

From the outside looking in, the tokenization of RWAs seems to be gaining momentum due to improved regulatory clarity in specific jurisdictions (such as Switzerland) and successful pilot projects.

De Vries said the unsustainable yields in decentralized finance (DeFi), which led to the collapse of many major crypto projects in 2022, have prompted investors to seek sustainable, real yields — such as the ones available with tokenized RWAs.

He elaborated: “Investors are now looking for transparent explanations of where these yields come from, making tokenized RWAs more attractive due to their clear yield sources and increased recognition from traditional players.”

“Investors have started to realize that if you can’t easily explain where the yield comes from, it’s probably going to collapse at some point. With tokenized RWAs, the source of the yield can be easily explained to crypto natives and new participants.”

Real estate is one area in which tokenization has had a significant impact. As things stand, it is the largest asset class in the world, with an estimated $613 trillion value in 2023. 

Between Q1 and Q3 2023, the value of on-chain real estate grew by 102%, or approximately $90 million.

Real estate RWAs: market cap by issuer. Source: Galaxy Research

The aggregate value of assets tokenized, which in some cases represent fractionalized claims on real estate, stands at $178 million as of Sept. 30. RealT, an issuer of tokenized real estate, holds the lion’s share of the market. Tangible, a fellow issuer of real estate-centric RWAs, witnessed the most growth among its peers. The total value of Tangible’s tokens soared from a mere $100,000 to an impressive $64 million over the first three quarters of 2023.

Bernard Lau, co-founder and CEO of blockchain-based real estate investment company Labs Group, told Cointelegraph that tokenizing real estate is probably the best use for this technology today. Due to its stability and tangible asset value, Lau believes real estate stands out from others as a very solid investment.

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“Previously, many investors from lower economic backgrounds found themselves left out of the real estate game due to the entry barrier that was just too high,” he said. “And since many found themselves out of this equation, they turned to investing in stocks and bonds. However, now that individuals can invest in fractions of houses, buildings or even resorts, more people can participate, fueling the growth we observe in the market.”

Beyond property investments

While real estate has undoubtedly been a popular use case for tokenization, de Vries believes this space could face numerous challenges moving forward — primarily due to differing laws and registries across different jurisdictions. In his view, tokenization translates more seamlessly within asset classes like exclusive collectibles, diamonds, luxury watches, classic cars, securities and even carbon credits.

Moreover, tokenization’s influence can also be actively felt within the realm of traditional finance, especially in relation to popular instruments such as bonds, stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Adam Levi, co-founder of Backed — a platform for tokenized real-world assets — told Cointelegraph that this transition is a natural one:

“The market needs stable yields. In a bear market, fixed-income products provide this. Globally, interest rates are up, and everyone wants to capitalize on this near-risk-free yield. We have not seen much interest in tokenized equities at the moment despite the S&P 500 being up around 17% year-to-date. However, we’ve particularly seen growing demand for non-USD-denominated fixed-income products.”

Angle Protocol recently launched the first yield-bearing stable euro using bC3M, a tokenized euro-denominated fixed-income ETF. Similarly, Backed has launched three euro-denominated products as part of its financial repertoire. “We are exploring GBP and BRL ETFs next,” Levi added.

Tokenized U.S. Treasurys

In recent months, the valuation of tokenized U.S. Treasury bills, bonds and money markets has scaled up to a whopping $685 million. The allure of tokenized Treasurys has been growing among digital asset aficionados, especially since the yield on U.S. government bonds — broadly perceived as a risk-free interest rate — has now overshadowed the yields delivered by most DeFi offerings.

During 2023 alone, the market has seen the debut of several new players, such as OpenEden, Ondo Finance and Maple Finance — each unveiling their own blockchain-centric Treasury products aimed at adept investors, digital asset enterprises and decentralized autonomous organizations.

Owing to these rapidly emerging trends, researchers at Bernstein Private Wealth Management believe that by 2028, about 2% of the global money supply — via stablecoins and central bank digital currencies — could be tokenized, bringing the sector’s valuation to $5 trillion.

UBS’s and JPMorgan’s tokenization ventures

Earlier this month, banking behemoths UBS and JPMorgan made significant strides in asset tokenization, unveiling platforms to facilitate seamless interaction between traditional financial assets and blockchain technology. UBS, for example, announced the live pilot of a tokenized variable capital company (VCC) fund under the moniker Project Guardian, steered by Singapore’s central bank.

This endeavor, part of a broader VCC umbrella, aims to usher various real-world assets onto the blockchain. UBS Asset Management — via its in-house UBS Tokenize service — has already conducted a controlled pilot of the tokenized money market fund, engaging in activities such as redemptions and fund subscriptions.

According to Thomas Kaegi, head of UBS Asset Management in Singapore and Southeast Asia, the project is a pivotal step toward deciphering the intricacies of fund tokenization, hoping to bolster market liquidity and accessibility for clients.

JPMorgan rolled out its blockchain-based tokenization platform — the Tokenized Collateral Network (TCN) — with asset management colossus BlackRock among its inaugural clientele. The platform, designed to transform traditional assets into digital counterparts, executed its first trade by transmuting shares of a money market fund into digital tokens.

This pioneering transaction between JPMorgan and BlackRock saw the assets transferred to Barclays Bank serving as collateral for an over-the-counter derivatives exchange between the entities.

The TCN, having undergone its maiden internal testing in May 2022, now boasts a burgeoning pipeline of clients and transactions, aiming to expedite traditional settlements on the blockchain. In a statement, Tyrone Lobban, head of Onyx Digital Assets at JPMorgan, emphasized the platform’s capacity to unlock capital for utilization as collateral in ongoing transactions, thereby increasing efficiency.

More noteworthy developments surrounding the space

Untangled Finance, a marketplace for tokenized RWAs, recently launched on the Celo network after receiving a $13.5 million venture capital injection, spearheaded by London’s Fasanara Capital, to transfer tokenized private credit to the blockchain.

The platform — anticipated to expand to the Ethereum and Polygon ecosystem via Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol — aims to elevate the present $550 million worth of private credit on DeFi rails closer to the traditional private credit market’s massive $1 trillion valuation.

Moreover, in late 2022, asset manager WisdomTree unveiled nine digital, tokenized funds, adding to the one it started successfully earlier in the year. The funds allow the transfer agent to keep a secondary record of shares on the Stellar or Ethereum blockchains.

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In February 2023, Hong Kong’s central bank offered an inaugural $100 million tokenized green, or sustainable investment, bond. Meanwhile, in April, French investment bank Credit Agricole CIB and Swedish bank SEB agreed to develop a blockchain-based platform for tokenized bonds.

Lastly, on Sept. 8, the United States Federal Reserve released a comprehensive working paper delving into asset tokenization and risk-weighted assets. In brief, the document states that tokenization, akin to stablecoins, embodies five fundamental constituents: a blockchain, a reference asset, a valuation methodology, storage or custodianship, and redemption procedures.

Therefore, as more and more individuals, major market entities and investors continue to understand the immense technological and financial advantages possessed by tokenized RWAs, it will be interesting to see how this yet nascent market evolves and grows.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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