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Three Infrastructure Stocks to Buy Benefit from Building Roads, Runways

Three infrastructure stocks to buy benefit from building roads and runways, among other colossal construction creations. The three infrastructure stocks to buy amid a government spending spree on roads, runways and other public works projects are not…

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Three infrastructure stocks to buy benefit from building roads and runways, among other colossal construction creations.

The three infrastructure stocks to buy amid a government spending spree on roads, runways and other public works projects are not just affected by federal funding but local and state budgets, too. Local and state financial support can be just as critical as the outlook for federal infrastructure stimulus, according to BoA Global Research. 

If state budgets are not healthy and visibility on federal funding is limited, infrastructure spending slows. However, many state budgets began improving prior to the latest federal funding initiatives.

Three Infrastructure Stocks to Buy Gain Lift from Federal, State and Local Funding

Examples include passage of the federal stimulus bill in December 2020 that provided $10 billion to the Department of Transportation and the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act that included $350 billion for state and local governments. Another boost comes from rising tax collections due to an increase in the number of miles driven, enhancing support for Department of Transportation budgets, BoA wrote in a recent research note.

“The federal legislation moving through Congress helps infrastructure companies and stocks,” said Bob Carlson, chairman of the Board of Trustees of Virginia’s Fairfax County Employees’ Retirement System with more than $4 billion in assets. “But I’ve favored infrastructure stocks the last few years, even before the legislation. There’s a strong need for many different types of infrastructure both in the U.S. and globally. The stocks were doing well before the legislation started to move, and they’ll do well even if the bill fails or is scaled back.”

However, Carlson cautioned that he would avoid “closed-end funds.” Normally, these funds are a good way to invest in infrastructure because of their leverage and high yields but increased popularity of such investments in the last few years has caused quality infrastructure-oriented closed-end funds to sell at premiums to their net asset value, continued Carlson, who also heads the Retirement Watch investment newsletter.

Pension fund and Retirement Watch chief Bob Carlson answers questions from columnist Paul Dykewicz.

Carlson told me that he previously recommended Cohen & Steers Infrastructure (UTF) but the fund became so popular that it went from selling at almost a 10% discount to net asset value to trading at a premium. Most recently, UTF sold at a 7% premium to net asset value, he added.

Three Infrastructure Stocks to Buy in Search of Bigger Gains Than Funds Tend to Provide

“To get broad-based exposure to stocks in the infrastructure space, there is perhaps no better way than the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE),” said Jim Woods, editor of Successful Investing, Intelligence Report and Bullseye Stock Trader. In late June, Woods recommended PAVE to subscribers in both the Successful Investing and Intelligence Report portfolios as a tactical play to take advantage of what he called, “A major wave of infrastructure spending that will have a positive revenue impact on the biggest and best stocks in the space.”

Paul Dykewicz meets with seasoned stock picker Jim Woods. 

Even before any new federal infrastructure stimulus flows to the states, the outlook for infrastructure company Construction Partners Inc. (NYSE:ROAD), of Dothan, Alabama, is brightening in the southeastern part of the United States where Department of Transportation (DoT) budgets are expected to increase about 20% during the next 12 months. A key reason is positive demographic shifts through growth in population, housing and miles driven during the ongoing economic recovery, BoA opined.

ROAD Ranks as One of the Three Infrastructure Stocks to Buy

Federal infrastructure spending should only support increased project activity in ROAD’s regions, spurring heightened expectations for 2022 and 2023 budgets that caused BoA to affirm its “Buy” recommendation for Construction Partners.

BoA placed a $37.00 price objective on the shares of Construction Partners, based on 14.5x 2022 estimated enterprise value (EV) and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) amid an improving multi-year growth outlook.

Construction Partners went public in May 2018, so it lacks “historical valuation context” and has no “true” comparable company for analysis to assess due to its uniqueness as an infrastructure company that focuses on construction and maintenance of roadways across five southeastern states, BoA wrote. Publicly funded projects compose most of the stock’s business, including local and state roadways, interstate highways, airport runways and bridges. The company also serves the private sector market by offering paving and sitework services for office and industrial parks, shopping centers and local businesses, and residential subdivisions.

Thus, BoA assessed a range of companies from Aggregates to Civil Contractors, to Infrastructure Services firms to Waste Services that share similar business models or end market exposure. BoA opted to use a blended average multiple — below aggregates (18x EBITDA), above civil contractors (8-10x EBITDA) and more aligned with engineering and construction (E&C) companies that have transformed into Infrastructure Services firms (14-15x EBITDA).

Hazards Affect ROAD as One of the Three Infrastructure Stocks to Buy

Risks exist to ROAD achieving BoA’s price objective. They include uncertainty around FAST Act authorization, which expires in September 2021; weaker-than-expected infrastructure spending, with 30% of revenue tied to cyclical private construction; vertical integration risks, since operating a liquid asphalt terminal and a wide network of hot mixed asphalt plants can bring a different level of complexity.

Third-quarter earnings per share for Construction Partners of $0.18 came in below consensus analysts’ estimates of $0.33, the company reported in early August. Revenue of $261.7 million in the third quarter also slipped below analysts’ consensus forecasts of $291.5 million.

The company’s management pointed to strong customer demand, project funding and bidding activity but noted that like many other construction and infrastructure businesses, project delays occurred due to supply chain and labor constraints affecting ROAD’s operations, as well as those of its subcontractors and vendors. Even though ROAD has a stable and experienced workforce in its markets and strong purchasing power, it is not immune to these current industry constraints.

The company’s management said the supply chain disruptions were likely to subside in the coming quarters through fiscal year 2022. In that light, the company’s long-term growth strategy remains intact. 

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

AECOM Wins Spot Among Three Infrastructure Stocks to Buy

AECOM (NYSE:ACM), a Los Angelesbased multinational infrastructure consulting firm, focuses on planning, design and engineering of construction management projects for transportation, buildings, water, energy and the environment. The company’s mission is to create a better world through its technical expertise and innovation, with its commitment to environmental, social and governance (ESG) priorities. 

A Fortune 500 company, AECOM’s Professional Services business amassed revenue of $13.2 billion in fiscal year 2020. Even though AECOM cited a flat third quarter with its state and local customers, the federal infrastructure package is bullish for the stock.

Projects that had been deferred or delayed due to funding uncertainty now can gain approval. An industry indicator is that 50% of Department of Transportation budgets are federally funded, so passage of infrastructure legislation in Congress is important to greenlight projects.

Federal Funding Should Help Three Infrastructure Stocks to Buy Build Roads and Bridges

Federal funding from the surface transportation programs is expected to be used for projects such as roads and bridges, not administrative costs and maintenance, BoA wrote. States now should have more visibility about the availability of capital for multi-year projects. Additionally, states no longer must wait for Congress to extend funding for federal transportation programs every year, since the latest legislation includes a five-year reauthorization.

BoA’s $78 price objective on AECOM is based on 13.0x the investment firm’s estimated 2022 EBITDA for the company. This valuation multiple aligns with professional services/design peers, given AECOM’s improving balance sheet and likelihood of becoming net debt free in 18 months, BoA wrote. The investment firm described AECOM’s outlook as “recovering,” amid potential for infrastructure, transportation and environmental spending initiatives.

Risks to AECOM attaining the price objective set by BoA include weaker-than-expected global construction growth, particularly for public spending in the United States and a headwind from COVID-19. Potential catalysts that could help AECOM top the BoA price objective are stronger-than-expected infrastructure spending by local, state and federal agencies; higher-than-forecast cost savings from the company’s restructuring program; and better-than-expected free cash flow generation.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Good news came on July 27, when AECOM announced the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Baltimore District chose the company to continue providing nationwide environmental remediation services through the Multiple Award Military Munitions Service (MAMMS) III contract. The multiple-award contract, with a shared program ceiling of $240 million, includes five base years and up to two additional option years. Under the new contract, AECOM and its specialty subcontractors will keep providing a range of environmental services, including investigations, field activities, engineering, remedial actions and design, and support for environmental-related regulatory programs.

Unlike ROAD, AECOM topped consensus industry analysts’ forecasts with third-quarter revenue reaching $2.62 billion rather than $2.48 billion in the Americas and $789.3 million in the international business, compared to the consensus estimate of $716.2 million. Operating income for the Americas business totaled $168.1 million versus analysts’ consensus of $164.7 million, while it reached $46.4 million instead of a consensus of $44.3 million for the company’s international business.

Jacobs Earns Final Spot Among Three Infrastructure Stocks to Buy

Another infrastructure stock to buy is Dallas, Texas-based Jacobs (NYSE:J), an international technical professional services firm that provides construction services, as well as scientific and specialty consulting for a range of clients who include companies, organizations and government agencies. BoA set a $157 price objective on Jacobs, based on 15x 2022 estimated EV/EBITDA. The valuation is near the high end of JEC’s historical range of 9-16x, although BoA opined it was warranted due to the company’s improved cost structure, less cyclical portfolio and reduced exposure to riskier contracts.

Plus, BoA wrote it has observed momentum in certain areas of Jacobs’ business portfolio, including infrastructure, transportation, environmental services and re-shoring. The valuation given to Jacobs is in line with other government services and information technology stocks. 

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Risks to Jacobs meeting the price objective given it by BoA include possible lessening of the public spending outlook due to federal, state and local budget funding; a lack of organic free cash flow generation and integration after recent acquisitions; and overhang from an ongoing dispute related to a power project in Australia. Potential catalysts that could fuel the stock beyond the price objective, BoA wrote, are a bigger-than-expected infrastructure bill at the state and federal level; a more favorable outlook for Departments of Defense and Energy funding; and bigger-than-expected synergies following acquisitions and technology investments.

Jacobs Is Another One of the Environmentally Aware Three Infrastructure Stocks to Buy

Jacobs also announced on July 21 that it aims to serve its clients in alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). That approach ties profitable growth with positive societal impact. Those values will be integrated into the overall company strategy to become a differentiator in attracting and retaining top talent, company management said.

Jacobs identified six core SDGs through stakeholder engagement and a materiality assessment. The SDGs have been boiled down into the following sustainable business objectives:

  1. Advance the health and wellbeing of society
  2. Deliver solutions for the global water and sanitation crisis
  3. Foster a culture of technology and innovation important to the advancement of society
  4. Create a fair and inclusive future for all
  5. Develop efficient and resilient solutions that deliver net environmental and societal gain
  6. Accelerate solutions that address the climate emergency

These objectives “sit at the heart of the company strategy” and define Jacobs’ responsibilities to its organization and its stakeholders, its management said.

As a purpose-led company, we recognize that our biggest opportunity to positively address climate change and societal inequalities comes from the solutions we provide our clients — from the world’s largest infrastructure projects to mission-critical outcomes and sustainable design,” said Jacobs Chairman and CEO Steve Demetriou. “We consider it not only good business, but our obligation to channel our expansive capabilities in resilient infrastructure, regenerative design, clean water, green energy and social value toward benefitting people and the planet, while continuing to outperform and drive superior stakeholder value.”

New Contracts Help Spur Jacobs’ Growth as One of Three Infrastructure Stocks to Buy

On June 24, Jacobs announced it won a new U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Kansas City District Architecture and Engineering (AE) contract to support the planning, design and construction of facilities and infrastructure in service of the Air Force’s B-21 mission. The Multiple Award Task Order Contract (MATOC) supports AE requirements at Ellsworth Air Force Base (AFB), South Dakota; Dyess AFB, Texas; Whiteman AFB, Missouri; and other locations as the Air Force determines support for the B-21 program.

USACE values the shared contract capacity at $200 million, with individual task order limits of $50 million. The pact has an initial five-year base period, with a two-year option. AE services include master planning, investigation and studies, and preparation of construction documents, including training, squad operations, weapons training and engine test shop facilities.

On May 28, the company reported winning a $6.4 billion, 10-year contract for US Department of Energy’s Idaho Cleanup Project (ICP) at the Idaho National Laboratory. Jacobs has been named the majority partner in the Idaho Environmental Coalition LLC, which includes members from Jacobs and North Wind Portage.

Delta Variant of COVID-19 May Affect Three Infrastructure Stocks to Buy

The highly transmissible Delta variant of COVID-19 has raised growing concerns from health experts about a new spike in the spread of the virus across the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is blaming the variant for new surges in case numbers and deaths.

However, the variant is leading to an increase in the number of people vaccinated from COVID-19. As of Aug. 17, 198,929,642 people, or 59.9% of the U.S. population, have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. The fully vaccinated total 168,897,604 people, or 50.9%, of the U.S. population, according to the CDC.

COVID-19 cases worldwide, as of Aug. 19, total 208,535,803 and led to 4,381,717 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. U.S. COVID-19 cases reached 37,009,359 and caused 623,297 deaths. America has the dreaded distinction as the country with the most COVID-19 cases and deaths.

The three infrastructure stocks to buy can help investors to pursue profits with the support of increased government spending on roads, bridges, runways and other public projects. Expanded federal spending on such projects appears headed toward becoming law and the three infrastructure stocks to buy should be among the beneficiaries.

Paul Dykewicz, www.pauldykewicz.com, is an accomplished, award-winning journalist who has written for Dow Jones, the Wall Street JournalInvestor’s Business DailyUSA Today, the Journal of Commerce, Seeking Alpha, GuruFocus and other publications and websites. Paul, who can be followed on Twitter @PaulDykewicz, is the editor of  StockInvestor.com and

 DividendInvestor.com,  a writer for both websites and a columnist. He further is editorial director of Eagle Financial Publications in Washington, D.C., where he edits monthly investment newsletters, time-sensitive trading alerts, free e-letters and other investment reports. Paul previously served as business editor of Baltimore’s Daily Record newspaper. Paul also is the author of an inspirational book, “Holy Smokes! Golden Guidance from Notre Dame’s Championship Chaplain,” with a foreword by former national championship-winning football coach Lou Holtz. The book is great as a gift and is endorsed by Joe Montana, Joe Theismann, Ara Parseghian, “Rocket” Ismail, Reggie Brooks, Dick Vitale and many othersCall 202-677-4457 for special pricing!

The post Three Infrastructure Stocks to Buy Benefit from Building Roads, Runways appeared first on Stock Investor.

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Fauci Deputy Warned Him Against Vaccine Mandates: Email

Fauci Deputy Warned Him Against Vaccine Mandates: Email

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Mandating COVID-19…

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Fauci Deputy Warned Him Against Vaccine Mandates: Email

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Mandating COVID-19 vaccination was a mistake due to ethical and other concerns, a top government doctor warned Dr. Anthony Fauci after Dr. Fauci promoted mass vaccination.

Coercing or forcing people to take a vaccine can have negative consequences from a biological, sociological, psychological, economical, and ethical standpoint and is not worth the cost even if the vaccine is 100% safe,” Dr. Matthew Memoli, director of the Laboratory of Infectious Diseases clinical studies unit at the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), told Dr. Fauci in an email.

“A more prudent approach that considers these issues would be to focus our efforts on those at high risk of severe disease and death, such as the elderly and obese, and do not push vaccination on the young and healthy any further.”

Dr. Anthony Fauci, ex-director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID. in Washington on Jan. 8, 2024. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

Employing that strategy would help prevent loss of public trust and political capital, Dr. Memoli said.

The email was sent on July 30, 2021, after Dr. Fauci, director of the NIAID, claimed that communities would be safer if more people received one of the COVID-19 vaccines and that mass vaccination would lead to the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“We’re on a really good track now to really crush this outbreak, and the more people we get vaccinated, the more assuredness that we’re going to have that we’re going to be able to do that,” Dr. Fauci said on CNN the month prior.

Dr. Memoli, who has studied influenza vaccination for years, disagreed, telling Dr. Fauci that research in the field has indicated yearly shots sometimes drive the evolution of influenza.

Vaccinating people who have not been infected with COVID-19, he said, could potentially impact the evolution of the virus that causes COVID-19 in unexpected ways.

“At best what we are doing with mandated mass vaccination does nothing and the variants emerge evading immunity anyway as they would have without the vaccine,” Dr. Memoli wrote. “At worst it drives evolution of the virus in a way that is different from nature and possibly detrimental, prolonging the pandemic or causing more morbidity and mortality than it should.”

The vaccination strategy was flawed because it relied on a single antigen, introducing immunity that only lasted for a certain period of time, Dr. Memoli said. When the immunity weakened, the virus was given an opportunity to evolve.

Some other experts, including virologist Geert Vanden Bossche, have offered similar views. Others in the scientific community, such as U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scientists, say vaccination prevents virus evolution, though the agency has acknowledged it doesn’t have records supporting its position.

Other Messages

Dr. Memoli sent the email to Dr. Fauci and two other top NIAID officials, Drs. Hugh Auchincloss and Clifford Lane. The message was first reported by the Wall Street Journal, though the publication did not publish the message. The Epoch Times obtained the email and 199 other pages of Dr. Memoli’s emails through a Freedom of Information Act request. There were no indications that Dr. Fauci ever responded to Dr. Memoli.

Later in 2021, the NIAID’s parent agency, the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), and all other federal government agencies began requiring COVID-19 vaccination, under direction from President Joe Biden.

In other messages, Dr. Memoli said the mandates were unethical and that he was hopeful legal cases brought against the mandates would ultimately let people “make their own healthcare decisions.”

“I am certainly doing everything in my power to influence that,” he wrote on Nov. 2, 2021, to an unknown recipient. Dr. Memoli also disclosed that both he and his wife had applied for exemptions from the mandates imposed by the NIH and his wife’s employer. While her request had been granted, his had not as of yet, Dr. Memoli said. It’s not clear if it ever was.

According to Dr. Memoli, officials had not gone over the bioethics of the mandates. He wrote to the NIH’s Department of Bioethics, pointing out that the protection from the vaccines waned over time, that the shots can cause serious health issues such as myocarditis, or heart inflammation, and that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread COVID-19 as unvaccinated people.

He cited multiple studies in his emails, including one that found a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in a California health care system despite a high rate of vaccination and another that showed transmission rates were similar among the vaccinated and unvaccinated.

Dr. Memoli said he was “particularly interested in the bioethics of a mandate when the vaccine doesn’t have the ability to stop spread of the disease, which is the purpose of the mandate.”

The message led to Dr. Memoli speaking during an NIH event in December 2021, several weeks after he went public with his concerns about mandating vaccines.

“Vaccine mandates should be rare and considered only with a strong justification,” Dr. Memoli said in the debate. He suggested that the justification was not there for COVID-19 vaccines, given their fleeting effectiveness.

Julie Ledgerwood, another NIAID official who also spoke at the event, said that the vaccines were highly effective and that the side effects that had been detected were not significant. She did acknowledge that vaccinated people needed boosters after a period of time.

The NIH, and many other government agencies, removed their mandates in 2023 with the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency.

A request for comment from Dr. Fauci was not returned. Dr. Memoli told The Epoch Times in an email he was “happy to answer any questions you have” but that he needed clearance from the NIAID’s media office. That office then refused to give clearance.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of health policy at Stanford University, said that Dr. Memoli showed bravery when he warned Dr. Fauci against mandates.

“Those mandates have done more to demolish public trust in public health than any single action by public health officials in my professional career, including diminishing public trust in all vaccines.” Dr. Bhattacharya, a frequent critic of the U.S. response to COVID-19, told The Epoch Times via email. “It was risky for Dr. Memoli to speak publicly since he works at the NIH, and the culture of the NIH punishes those who cross powerful scientific bureaucrats like Dr. Fauci or his former boss, Dr. Francis Collins.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 17:40

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Trump “Clearly Hasn’t Learned From His COVID-Era Mistakes”, RFK Jr. Says

Trump "Clearly Hasn’t Learned From His COVID-Era Mistakes", RFK Jr. Says

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President…

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Trump "Clearly Hasn't Learned From His COVID-Era Mistakes", RFK Jr. Says

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Joe Biden claimed that COVID vaccines are now helping cancer patients during his State of the Union address on March 7, but it was a response on Truth Social from former President Donald Trump that drew the ire of independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds a voter rally in Grand Rapids, Mich., on Feb. 10, 2024. (Mitch Ranger for The Epoch Times)

During the address, President Biden said: “The pandemic no longer controls our lives. The vaccines that saved us from COVID are now being used to help beat cancer, turning setback into comeback. That’s what America does.”

President Trump wrote: “The Pandemic no longer controls our lives. The VACCINES that saved us from COVID are now being used to help beat cancer—turning setback into comeback. YOU’RE WELCOME JOE. NINE-MONTH APPROVAL TIME VS. 12 YEARS THAT IT WOULD HAVE TAKEN YOU.”

An outspoken critic of President Trump’s COVID response, and the Operation Warp Speed program that escalated the availability of COVID vaccines, Mr. Kennedy said on X, formerly known as Twitter, that “Donald Trump clearly hasn’t learned from his COVID-era mistakes.”

“He fails to recognize how ineffective his warp speed vaccine is as the ninth shot is being recommended to seniors. Even more troubling is the documented harm being caused by the shot to so many innocent children and adults who are suffering myocarditis, pericarditis, and brain inflammation,” Mr. Kennedy remarked.

“This has been confirmed by a CDC-funded study of 99 million people. Instead of bragging about its speedy approval, we should be honestly and transparently debating the abundant evidence that this vaccine may have caused more harm than good.

“I look forward to debating both Trump and Biden on Sept. 16 in San Marcos, Texas.”

Mr. Kennedy announced in April 2023 that he would challenge President Biden for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential nomination before declaring his run as an independent last October, claiming that the Democrat National Committee was “rigging the primary.”

Since the early stages of his campaign, Mr. Kennedy has generated more support than pundits expected from conservatives, moderates, and independents resulting in speculation that he could take votes away from President Trump.

Many Republicans continue to seek a reckoning over the government-imposed pandemic lockdowns and vaccine mandates.

President Trump’s defense of Operation Warp Speed, the program he rolled out in May 2020 to spur the development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines amid the pandemic, remains a sticking point for some of his supporters.

Vice President Mike Pence (L) and President Donald Trump deliver an update on Operation Warp Speed in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington on Nov. 13, 2020. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

Operation Warp Speed featured a partnership between the government, the military, and the private sector, with the government paying for millions of vaccine doses to be produced.

President Trump released a statement in March 2021 saying: “I hope everyone remembers when they’re getting the COVID-19 Vaccine, that if I wasn’t President, you wouldn’t be getting that beautiful ‘shot’ for 5 years, at best, and probably wouldn’t be getting it at all. I hope everyone remembers!”

President Trump said about the COVID-19 vaccine in an interview on Fox News in March 2021: “It works incredibly well. Ninety-five percent, maybe even more than that. I would recommend it, and I would recommend it to a lot of people that don’t want to get it and a lot of those people voted for me, frankly.

“But again, we have our freedoms and we have to live by that and I agree with that also. But it’s a great vaccine, it’s a safe vaccine, and it’s something that works.”

On many occasions, President Trump has said that he is not in favor of vaccine mandates.

An environmental attorney, Mr. Kennedy founded Children’s Health Defense, a nonprofit that aims to end childhood health epidemics by promoting vaccine safeguards, among other initiatives.

Last year, Mr. Kennedy told podcaster Joe Rogan that ivermectin was suppressed by the FDA so that the COVID-19 vaccines could be granted emergency use authorization.

He has criticized Big Pharma, vaccine safety, and government mandates for years.

Since launching his presidential campaign, Mr. Kennedy has made his stances on the COVID-19 vaccines, and vaccines in general, a frequent talking point.

“I would argue that the science is very clear right now that they [vaccines] caused a lot more problems than they averted,” Mr. Kennedy said on Piers Morgan Uncensored last April.

“And if you look at the countries that did not vaccinate, they had the lowest death rates, they had the lowest COVID and infection rates.”

Additional data show a “direct correlation” between excess deaths and high vaccination rates in developed countries, he said.

President Trump and Mr. Kennedy have similar views on topics like protecting the U.S.-Mexico border and ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

COVID-19 is the topic where Mr. Kennedy and President Trump seem to differ the most.

Former President Donald Trump intended to “drain the swamp” when he took office in 2017, but he was “intimidated by bureaucrats” at federal agencies and did not accomplish that objective, Mr. Kennedy said on Feb. 5.

Speaking at a voter rally in Tucson, where he collected signatures to get on the Arizona ballot, the independent presidential candidate said President Trump was “earnest” when he vowed to “drain the swamp,” but it was “business as usual” during his term.

John Bolton, who President Trump appointed as a national security adviser, is “the template for a swamp creature,” Mr. Kennedy said.

Scott Gottlieb, who President Trump named to run the FDA, “was Pfizer’s business partner” and eventually returned to Pfizer, Mr. Kennedy said.

Mr. Kennedy said that President Trump had more lobbyists running federal agencies than any president in U.S. history.

“You can’t reform them when you’ve got the swamp creatures running them, and I’m not going to do that. I’m going to do something different,” Mr. Kennedy said.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, President Trump “did not ask the questions that he should have,” he believes.

President Trump “knew that lockdowns were wrong” and then “agreed to lockdowns,” Mr. Kennedy said.

He also “knew that hydroxychloroquine worked, he said it,” Mr. Kennedy explained, adding that he was eventually “rolled over” by Dr. Anthony Fauci and his advisers.

President Donald Trump greets the crowd before he leaves at the Operation Warp Speed Vaccine Summit in Washington on Dec. 8, 2020. (Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)

MaryJo Perry, a longtime advocate for vaccine choice and a Trump supporter, thinks votes will be at a premium come Election Day, particularly because the independent and third-party field is becoming more competitive.

Ms. Perry, president of Mississippi Parents for Vaccine Rights, believes advocates for medical freedom could determine who is ultimately president.

She believes that Mr. Kennedy is “pulling votes from Trump” because of the former president’s stance on the vaccines.

“People care about medical freedom. It’s an important issue here in Mississippi, and across the country,” Ms. Perry told The Epoch Times.

“Trump should admit he was wrong about Operation Warp Speed and that COVID vaccines have been dangerous. That would make a difference among people he has offended.”

President Trump won’t lose enough votes to Mr. Kennedy about Operation Warp Speed and COVID vaccines to have a significant impact on the election, Ohio Republican strategist Wes Farno told The Epoch Times.

President Trump won in Ohio by eight percentage points in both 2016 and 2020. The Ohio Republican Party endorsed President Trump for the nomination in 2024.

“The positives of a Trump presidency far outweigh the negatives,” Mr. Farno said. “People are more concerned about their wallet and the economy.

“They are asking themselves if they were better off during President Trump’s term compared to since President Biden took office. The answer to that question is obvious because many Americans are struggling to afford groceries, gas, mortgages, and rent payments.

“America needs President Trump.”

Multiple national polls back Mr. Farno’s view.

As of March 6, the RealClearPolitics average of polls indicates that President Trump has 41.8 percent support in a five-way race that includes President Biden (38.4 percent), Mr. Kennedy (12.7 percent), independent Cornel West (2.6 percent), and Green Party nominee Jill Stein (1.7 percent).

A Pew Research Center study conducted among 10,133 U.S. adults from Feb. 7 to Feb. 11 showed that Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents (42 percent) are more likely than Republicans and GOP-leaning independents (15 percent) to say they have received an updated COVID vaccine.

The poll also reported that just 28 percent of adults say they have received the updated COVID inoculation.

The peer-reviewed multinational study of more than 99 million vaccinated people that Mr. Kennedy referenced in his X post on March 7 was published in the Vaccine journal on Feb. 12.

It aimed to evaluate the risk of 13 adverse events of special interest (AESI) following COVID-19 vaccination. The AESIs spanned three categories—neurological, hematologic (blood), and cardiovascular.

The study reviewed data collected from more than 99 million vaccinated people from eight nations—Argentina, Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, New Zealand, and Scotland—looking at risks up to 42 days after getting the shots.

Three vaccines—Pfizer and Moderna’s mRNA vaccines as well as AstraZeneca’s viral vector jab—were examined in the study.

Researchers found higher-than-expected cases that they deemed met the threshold to be potential safety signals for multiple AESIs, including for Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS), cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST), myocarditis, and pericarditis.

A safety signal refers to information that could suggest a potential risk or harm that may be associated with a medical product.

The study identified higher incidences of neurological, cardiovascular, and blood disorder complications than what the researchers expected.

President Trump’s role in Operation Warp Speed, and his continued praise of the COVID vaccine, remains a concern for some voters, including those who still support him.

Krista Cobb is a 40-year-old mother in western Ohio. She voted for President Trump in 2020 and said she would cast her vote for him this November, but she was stunned when she saw his response to President Biden about the COVID-19 vaccine during the State of the Union address.

I love President Trump and support his policies, but at this point, he has to know they [advisers and health officials] lied about the shot,” Ms. Cobb told The Epoch Times.

“If he continues to promote it, especially after all of the hearings they’ve had about it in Congress, the side effects, and cover-ups on Capitol Hill, at what point does he become the same as the people who have lied?” Ms. Cobb added.

“I think he should distance himself from talk about Operation Warp Speed and even admit that he was wrong—that the vaccines have not had the impact he was told they would have. If he did that, people would respect him even more.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 17:00

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Mathematicians use AI to identify emerging COVID-19 variants

Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants…

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Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants and could help with other infections in the future.

Credit: source: https://phil.cdc.gov/Details.aspx?pid=23312

Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants and could help with other infections in the future.

The framework combines dimension reduction techniques and a new explainable clustering algorithm called CLASSIX, developed by mathematicians at The University of Manchester. This enables the quick identification of groups of viral genomes that might present a risk in the future from huge volumes of data.

The study, presented this week in the journal PNAS, could support traditional methods of tracking viral evolution, such as phylogenetic analysis, which currently require extensive manual curation.

Roberto Cahuantzi, a researcher at The University of Manchester and first and corresponding author of the paper, said: “Since the emergence of COVID-19, we have seen multiple waves of new variants, heightened transmissibility, evasion of immune responses, and increased severity of illness.

“Scientists are now intensifying efforts to pinpoint these worrying new variants, such as alpha, delta and omicron, at the earliest stages of their emergence. If we can find a way to do this quickly and efficiently, it will enable us to be more proactive in our response, such as tailored vaccine development and may even enable us to eliminate the variants before they become established.”

Like many other RNA viruses, COVID-19 has a high mutation rate and short time between generations meaning it evolves extremely rapidly. This means identifying new strains that are likely to be problematic in the future requires considerable effort.

Currently, there are almost 16 million sequences available on the GISAID database (the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data), which provides access to genomic data of influenza viruses.

Mapping the evolution and history of all COVID-19 genomes from this data is currently done using extremely large amounts of computer and human time.

The described method allows automation of such tasks. The researchers processed 5.7 million high-coverage sequences in only one to two days on a standard modern laptop; this would not be possible for existing methods, putting identification of concerning pathogen strains in the hands of more researchers due to reduced resource needs.

Thomas House, Professor of Mathematical Sciences at The University of Manchester, said: “The unprecedented amount of genetic data generated during the pandemic demands improvements to our methods to analyse it thoroughly. The data is continuing to grow rapidly but without showing a benefit to curating this data, there is a risk that it will be removed or deleted.

“We know that human expert time is limited, so our approach should not replace the work of humans all together but work alongside them to enable the job to be done much quicker and free our experts for other vital developments.”

The proposed method works by breaking down genetic sequences of the COVID-19 virus into smaller “words” (called 3-mers) represented as numbers by counting them. Then, it groups similar sequences together based on their word patterns using machine learning techniques.

Stefan Güttel, Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Manchester, said: “The clustering algorithm CLASSIX we developed is much less computationally demanding than traditional methods and is fully explainable, meaning that it provides textual and visual explanations of the computed clusters.”

Roberto Cahuantzi added: “Our analysis serves as a proof of concept, demonstrating the potential use of machine learning methods as an alert tool for the early discovery of emerging major variants without relying on the need to generate phylogenies.

“Whilst phylogenetics remains the ‘gold standard’ for understanding the viral ancestry, these machine learning methods can accommodate several orders of magnitude more sequences than the current phylogenetic methods and at a low computational cost.”


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