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These are some of the coronavirus vaccine candidates

These are some of the coronavirus vaccine candidates

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coronavirus vaccine candidate covid 19 vaccine candidate

There’s a long list of coronavirus vaccine candidates in development right now, but it’s too early to say which will enter production. Investors have been quick to jump on any public companies that have COVID-19 vaccine candidates in development, although it’s still very early in the process.

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Here are some of the coronavirus vaccine candidates

The World Health Organization is keeping a list of coronavirus vaccine candidates in development here. Toward the top of the list, you'll see the RNA COVID-19 vaccine candidate from Moderna and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Also on the list are Sinovac's effort, the non-replicating viral vector candidate from the University of Oxford, Inovio Pharmaceuticals' DNA vaccine, and the RNA vaccine candidate in development by Pfizer with BioNTech and Fosun Pharma. The Wuhan Institute of Biological Products is also working on a coronavirus vaccine candidate with Sinopharm, and the Beijing Institute of Biological Products is also working on one with Sinopharm.

Other companies listed on the list of COVID-19 vaccine candidates are Janssen Pharmaceutical, Altimmune, GeoVax and BravoVax, Valo Therapeutics, Sanofi Pasteur and GlaxoSmithKline, and Novavax.

The WHO's list of coronavirus vaccine candidates is five pages long, illustrating just how much effort is being put into finding a vaccine for the deadly virus.

Types of vaccines

Researchers are looking into four different approaches for creating a vaccine. The process usually takes years, but they are combining trial phases and taking other steps to shorten the process due to the severity of the pandemic right now. Over 100 different teams of scientists around the world are trying their hand at developing a vaccine for the coronavirus, which has sickened nearly 5 million people and taken about 325,000 lives.

Nature explained what questions scientists must ask as they test each coronavirus vaccine candidate. The most obvious question is about what kind of immune response the vaccine will cause and whether it effectively prevents COVID-19. Another question is whether each vaccine is safe, while another is how to know if it will actually work.

Finally, researchers must determine that if immunity does develop from any vaccine, how long will it last?

Here's what's happening now in the COVID-19 vaccine candidate effort

The U.S. Department of Health is providing up to $1.2 billion to speed up the development of AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine candidate. The money will also secure 300 million doses of the vaccine for the U.S. The vaccine candidate is being developed by the University of Oxford and licensed to AstraZeneca.

The deal allows for a late-stage Phase 3 clinical trial of the vaccine involving 30,000 people in the U.S. AstraZeneca said it has secured agreements for at least 400 million doses of the vaccine and arranged manufacturing for 1 billion doses. Deliveries of the vaccine are set to start in September, according to Reuters. The U.S. government also has deals with Johnson & Johnson, Moderna and Sanofi.

In other parts of the world, preparations are also being made to manufacture vaccines. The Serum Institute of India is the biggest vaccine maker by volume, and it has set aside one of its facilities to produce up to 400 million doses of Oxford's vaccine per year.

Next steps

About 100 different coronavirus vaccine candidates are in the works, so it will be some time before researchers know which candidate will be the best one to put into mass production. At lease six of those COVID-19 vaccine candidates are now being tested for safety in humans. The next step will be to determine which vaccines actually do what they're supposed to do, which is prevent infection with the novel coronavirus.

Nature explained that the vaccine trials involve giving thousands or tens of thousands of people the vaccine candidate or a placebo and then watching over months or years whether there is a difference in the number of people who get infected between the two groups. The trials are also focused on ensuring that the vaccines are safe.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, officials are speeding up the rate of vaccine development because it's thy only way to fully protect the world's population. Despite the fact that millions of people have been infected, many still haven't been exposed to it, so the human race is a long way from herd immunity.

Which coronavirus vaccine candidates to test first

The World Health Organization is planning a trial to test multiple COVID-19 vaccine candidates in a single study. Such an undertaking has never been attempted before, and vaccines have never been tested in such a short timeframe. The WHO's study will allow for more vaccine candidates to be added to the trial on a regular basis. Candidates that don't appear to work can be easily dropped from the trials.

As far as which coronavirus vaccine candidates will be tested first, researchers will look at production capacity and the amount of immune response generated in early trials and animal studies. Nature notes that some of the types of vaccines that are being developed, like RNA vaccines, which Bill Gates is excited about, haven't been tested widely in humans. The RNA method also hasn't been used in any vaccine that has previously won approval by regulators.

One other issue with testing multiple vaccine candidates is figuring out how each of them compares to each other. The WHO's trial could allow vaccines to be compared to each other, but some developers might not want to do it because such a trial could impact their vaccine's commercial prospects.

Another way to accelerate coronavirus vaccine candidates

Mass-scale trials will play an important role in the development of each coronavirus vaccine candidate, but there is a possibility that regulators could approve emergency deployment of them. Nature said one possibility is to look for signs in early-state trials that a vaccine candidate works in hundreds of patients and then seek approval from regulators to administer the vaccine to high-risk groups like healthcare workers.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration can grant such emergency deployment measures while more data is being collected to license a particular vaccine. So far, no vaccine has ever been given out under emergency provisions. If the coronavirus vaccine does follow that path, regulators will want to be sure that it's safe before issuing emergency approval.

Believe it or not, some are advocating a more radical approach to getting COVID-19 vaccine candidates approved faster. This would involve intentionally infecting volunteers who are young and healthy, which would mean that study administrators wouldn't need to wait and see if trial participants become infected naturally. This process is already being used for diseases like dengue fever and malaria. However, without an effective treatment, such a process would be extremely risky because there would be no way to know which young, healthy volunteers will develop life-threatening symptoms from the disease.

The post These are some of the coronavirus vaccine candidates appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Dinosaur teeth reveal what they didn’t eat

Scratches on dinosaur teeth could reveal what they really ate. For the first time, dental microwear texture analysis (DMTA) has been used to infer the…

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Scratches on dinosaur teeth could reveal what they really ate. For the first time, dental microwear texture analysis (DMTA) has been used to infer the feeding habits of large theropods, including Allosaurus and T. rex. By taking 3D images of individual teeth and analyzing the pattern of marks scratched into them, researchers could reason which dinosaurs may have frequently crunched on hard bone and which may have regularly eaten softer foods and prey. This technique opens up a new avenue of research for paleontology, helping us to better understand not only dinosaurs themselves but also the environment and communities in which they lived.

Credit: 2022 D.E. Winkler

Scratches on dinosaur teeth could reveal what they really ate. For the first time, dental microwear texture analysis (DMTA) has been used to infer the feeding habits of large theropods, including Allosaurus and T. rex. By taking 3D images of individual teeth and analyzing the pattern of marks scratched into them, researchers could reason which dinosaurs may have frequently crunched on hard bone and which may have regularly eaten softer foods and prey. This technique opens up a new avenue of research for paleontology, helping us to better understand not only dinosaurs themselves but also the environment and communities in which they lived.

From Fantasia to Jurassic Park, the T. rex is seen as a terrifying apex predator that would chase down its prey and crunch on it whole. But how much did this iconic dinosaur actually chow down on bones? And what about other predatory dinosaurs that existed long before it?

Researchers from the University of Tokyo, in collaboration with teams from the University of Mainz and the University of Hamburg in Germany, have used dental microwear texture analysis (DMTA), a scanning technique to examine topographical dental wear and tear in microscopic detail, on individual dinosaur teeth from more than 100 million years ago to better understand what they may have eaten. “We wanted to test if we could use DMTA to find evidence of different feeding behaviors in tyrannosaurids (from the Cretaceous period, 145 million to 66 million years ago) compared to the older Allosaurus (from the Jurassic period, 201 million to 145 million years ago), which are both types of theropods,” explained postdoctoral fellow Daniela Winkler from the Graduate School of Frontier Sciences. “From other research, we already knew that tyrannosaurids can crack and feed on bones (from studies of their feces and bite marks on bone). But allosaurs are much older and there is not so much information about them.”

DMTA has mainly been used to study mammal teeth, so this is the first time it was used to study theropods. The same research team from the University of Tokyo also recently pioneered a study on DMTA in Japanese sauropod dinosaurs, famous for their long necks and tails. A high-resolution 3D image was taken of the tooth surface at a very small scale of 100 micrometers (one-tenth of a millimeter) by 100 micrometers in size. Up to 50 sets of surface texture parameters were then used to analyze the image, for example, the roughness, depth and complexity of wear marks. If the complexity was high, i.e., there were different-sized marks which overlaid each other, this was associated with hard object feeding, such as on bone. However, if the complexity was low, i.e., the marks were more arranged, of a similar size and not overlapping, this was associated with soft object feeding, like meat.

In total, the team studied 48 teeth, 34 from theropod dinosaurs and 14 from crocodilians (modern crocodiles and alligators), which were used as a comparison. The team was able to study original fossilized teeth and take high-resolution silicon molds, thanks to loans provided by natural history museums in Canada, the U.S., Argentina and Europe. “We actually started dental microwear research of dinosaurs in 2010,” said Lecturer Mugino Kubo from the Graduate School of Frontier Sciences. “My husband, Dr. Tai Kubo, and I had started collecting dental molds of dinosaurs and their contemporaries in North and South Americas, Europe, and of course Asia. Since Daniela joined my lab, we utilized these molds to make a broader comparison among carnivorous dinosaurs.”

“It was especially challenging to carry out this research during the pandemic,” said Winkler “as we rely on being able to gather samples from international institutions. The sample size might not be so large this time, but it is a starting point.”

Winkler says what they found surprising was that they didn’t find evidence of much bone crushing behavior in either Allosaurus or tyrannosaurids, even though they know that tyrannosaurids ate bone. There may be several reasons for this unexpected outcome. It could be that although Tyrannosaurus was able to eat bone, it was less commonly done than previously thought. Also, the team had to use well-preserved teeth, so it might be that extremely damaged teeth that were excluded from this study were in such a condition because those animals fed more on bone.

Something the team did find with both the dinosaurs and crocodilians was a noticeable difference between juveniles and adults. “We studied two juvenile dinosaur specimens (one Allosaurus and one tyrannosaurid) and what we found was a very different feeding niche and behavior for both compared to the adults. We found that there was more wear to juvenile teeth, which might mean that they had to more frequently feed on carcasses because they were eating leftovers,” explained Winkler. “We were also able to detect different feeding behavior in juvenile crocodilians; however, this time it was the opposite. Juvenile crocodilians had less wear on their teeth from eating softer foods, perhaps like insects, while adults had more dental wear from eating harder foods, like larger vertebrates.”

Winkler says that the next step with dinosaurs will probably be to look in more detail at the long-necked sauropods, which the team has also been studying. But for now, she is experimenting with something much, much smaller: crickets. The insects’ mouths may be tiny and don’t have any teeth, but the researchers want to see if they can still find evidence of mouth wear using the same technique. “From what we learn using DMTA, we can possibly reconstruct extinct animals’ diets, and from this make inferences about extinct ecosystems, paleoecology and paleoclimate, and how it differs from today.” said Winkler. “But this research is also about curiosity. We want to form a clearer image of what dinosaurs were really like and how they lived all those millions of years ago.”

###

Paper Title: 

Daniela E. Winkler, Tai Kubo, Mugino O. Kubo, Thomas M. Kaiser, Thomas Tütken. First application of dental microwear texture analysis to infer theropod feeding ecology.  Palaeontology, 2022, e12632. doi:10.1111/pala.12632

Funding: 

This work was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (ERC CoG grant agreement no. 681450) to T.T. The Japan Society for the Promotion of Science under a Postdoctoral fellowship awarded to D.E.W. (KAKENHI Grant No. 20F20325).

Useful Links:

Graduate School of Frontier Sciences: https://www.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/index.html

Mugino Kubo Lab: https://sites.google.com/edu.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp/mugino-kubo-lab/home

 

Research Contacts

JSPS Postdoctoral Fellow Daniela E Winkler, Ph.D.

Department of Natural Environmental Studies,
Graduate School of Frontier Sciences,
The University of Tokyo

5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa City, Chiba 277-8563

E-mail: daniela.eileen.winkler@edu.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Lecturer Mugino O. Kubo
Department of Natural Environmental Studies,
Graduate School of Frontier Sciences,
The University of Tokyo

5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa City, Chiba 277-8563

E-mail: mugino@k.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Press contact:
Mrs. Nicola Burghall
Public Relations Group, The University of Tokyo,
7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan
press-releases.adm@gs.mail.u-tokyo.ac.jp

 

About the University of Tokyo
The University of Tokyo is Japan’s leading university and one of the world’s top research universities. The vast research output of some 6,000 researchers is published in the world’s top journals across the arts and sciences. Our vibrant student body of around 15,000 undergraduate and 15,000 graduate students includes over 4,000 international students. Find out more at www.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/ or follow us on Twitter at @UTokyo_News_en.

 

 


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Could investing in bonds yield better returns than equities in 2023?

It’s not news that 2022 has been a tough one for stock markets. There have been sectors, like energy and utilities, that…
The post Could investing…

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It’s not news that 2022 has been a tough one for stock markets. There have been sectors, like energy and utilities, that have bucked the negative trend but the big picture has been bleak. The UK’s large cap FTSE 100 index has faired better than most and is more or less flat for the year thanks to its heavy weighting towards energy, industrial commodities, and finance.

Source: CSIMarket

But it’s been a volatile ride and the end of the year could still drag London’s benchmark index into the red.

ftse100index

Over in the USA, the major indices have suffered significant losses. The growth companies, especially in the tech sector, that saw Wall Street enjoy over a decade of strong growth with only the occasional short-lived correction have been among those hit hardest by inflation hitting decades-long highs and interest rates rising.

That’s seen the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite register an over 30% loss for the year-to-date and the broader based S&P 500 is down a little under 18% over 2022.

nasdaq composite

However, while the hangover from the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were unpredictable events that have undoubtedly deepened stock market losses, a turn of the market cycle is not a surprise. The bull market that preceded the 2022 bear market was the longest in history, supported by unprecedented levels of quantitative easing and record-low interest rates in major developed economies.

If anything, the surprise was that the bull market for equities persisted for as long as it did and pushed valuations so high. More bearish analysts had been warning of a reversal for years before it actually transpired.

What has been far more surprising, almost unprecedented, is that bond markets have failed to live up to their traditional portfolio role of providing insurance against an equities bear market. When equities, especially growth stocks, enter bear territory, bonds usually go in the opposite direction, rising with interest rates and an influx of capital seeking a safe haven.

Traditionally, a portfolio with a 60% allocation to equities and 40% allocation to bonds should come into its own during periods like this year. The bond allocation would be expected to cushion the blow of an equities bear market, paying its way for lower returns than equities during the good times.

But in the third quarter of this year, a traditionally conservative portfolio with a 40% allocation to equities would have actually underperformed one 100% allocated to equities. Inflation remaining stubbornly high this year despite the Fed and other central banks including the Bank of England has upended the conventional investing wisdom that equities and bonds do not both move in the same direction – the foundational principle of traditional diversification strategies.

But will that change in 2023? Could bonds outperform equities next year in a way that means investors should consider increasing their portfolio weighting towards fixed-income investments?

Why have bonds not lived up to their billing in 2022?

Nothing has worked well for diversified investors this year, not equities, not bonds and not the traditional 60/40 portfolio split between the two asset classes. But will this year prove a blip or has the relationship bet equities and bonds changed fundamentally?

Analysts including Morningstar’s Lauren Solberg believe the performance of the bond market next year will be most influenced by inflation. If inflation remains high, bonds could continue to struggle alongside equities. However, if major central banks including the Fed manage to wrestle inflation back down towards target levels, especially if that is accompanied by a recession, bonds would be expected to revert to their traditional anti-correlation with equities.

This year, one they would have been expected to benefit from a flight from equities and rising interest rates, has been the worst for bonds in modern history. It’s also been the only time in history that stocks and bonds have both recorded losses for three consecutive quarters.

chart2

Source: Morningstar

Sky-high inflation, which is bad for both equities and bonds, has negated the usually positive impact on bonds of a bear market for equities and rising interest rates.

Will bonds return to form in 2023?

There is differing opinion among analysts and market observers about what 2023 might hold in store for bond markets. The more common expectation is that bonds will do a much better job at insulating portfolios than this year with yields now much higher than they were in late 2021.

However, others believe that a secular change in the correlation relationship between equities and bonds is now underway. That is based on the expectation that inflation, even if it falls meaningfully in 2023, could remain at higher levels and be more prone to volatility than it has been over the past couple of decades.

Recent research published by Truist Wealth shows that U.S. government-backed debt has delivered average annual returns of 6.6% over the past four recessions, beating both high-yield ‘junk’ and investment-grade corporate bonds. That would indicate 2023 could be a very good year for bond investors with the right exposure – a focus on government rather than private sector debt. However, we’ve already seen a significant divergence from historical patterns this year.

Marta Norton, chief investment officer for the Americas at Morningstar Investment Management, believes 2023 could be hold opportunities for fixed income, across government-backed and corporate bonds:

“When you look over the past 10 years, it’s really only been an equity story: It’s been such a good market to take on equity risk, a tremendously good time to be an equity investor. But today, it’s harder to know where to invest the marginal dollar. Fixed income is looking more appealing than it has in some time. You don’t have to take enormous risk to earn some return, and that’s a mindset shift to the environment we had before.”

While she acknowledges that U.S. equities now look a lot more attractively priced than they did a year ago, she cautions against investors rushing back to the market and thinks the bear cycle could last longer than many expect. She says the “buy the dip”mentality that has worked so well over the past decade could mean investors risk suffering meaningful losses by moving into a losing market.

She doesn’t advise not investing in equities but that investors should instead drip feed any investment instead of trying to time a bottom.

She is more confident in the opportunities around fixed income investments, especially higher-quality, shorter-dated fixed income, which she says comes with the added benefit of lower risk, especially if a deeper recession materialises.

Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research within portfolio strategy at Goldman Sachs agrees. He notes the gap in yields between stock and bonds has narrowed substantially since the COVID-19 crisis and is now relatively low. The same is true for riskier credit, which yields relatively little compared with practically risk-free Treasuries and means investors are getting little premium for the risk of owning equities or high-yield credit in comparison to lower-risk bonds. As a result, equities and high-yield debt are particularly exposed to an economic slowdown or recession:

“That just makes equities and riskier debt very vulnerable for disappointments on growth next year”.

Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley is also championing bonds for 2023. She concludes:

“We continue to believe it is premature to call an end to the bear market for U.S. stocks. Investors may have moved on from inflation concerns, but they cannot ignore the economic picture. For now, investors should consider reducing U.S. large-cap index exposure. Instead, look to Treasuries, munis and investment-grade corporate credit. Stay patient and collect coupon income.”

What about UK Gilts vs London-listed equities?

Should investors mainly exposed to London-listed rather than Wall Street-based equities be thinking along similar lines? The FTSE 100 has remained largely flat in 2022, finally benefitting from its lack of growth stocks and heavy weighting to more traditional sectors like energy, commodities and finance.

London-listed equities were considered cheap before 2022, which is another reason valuations have not fallen in the same way as they have in the USA. On the other hand, they are also less likely to see as much upside if a recession is avoided next year and economic sentiment improves.

The FTSE 100 has also been boosted considerably by the soaring valuation of big energy companies like BP and Shell and utilities such as Centrica, which has compensated for companies in other sectors, such as consumer cyclicles, losing value. Energy prices easing off next year, which is by no means guaranteed depending on how geopolitical factors play out, would be negative for the benchmark index.

The UK’s outlook for both equities and government debt is not particularly positive. RBC Wealth Management summarises:

“A crippling cost of living, austerity measures, and the Bank of England tightening monetary policy will all conspire to create a prolonged recession in the UK, in our view. We advocate an underweight position in UK equities, although we are mindful that depressed valuations may produce interesting dividend income opportunities. We have a negative outlook on UK sovereign debt, as increased government debt issuance and the Bank of England proceeding to sell its Gilts portfolio will likely create a Gilt supply glut.”

While it may not appeal to patriotic sentiment, investors looking for the best risk-to-reward ratio in 2023 might be better served to invest in U.S. Treasuries than UK Gilts if a fixed income approach is favoured.

The post Could investing in bonds yield better returns than equities in 2023? first appeared on Trading and Investment News.

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Call For Investigation Into Mortality Rates As Australia Sees Death-Rate Spike

Call For Investigation Into Mortality Rates As Australia Sees Death-Rate Spike

Authored by Victoria Kelly-Clark via The Epoch Times,

Australia has…

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Call For Investigation Into Mortality Rates As Australia Sees Death-Rate Spike

Authored by Victoria Kelly-Clark via The Epoch Times,

Australia has seen a spike in its mortality rates in 2022, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) stating that by the end of August 2022, 128,797 deaths had been registered, which is 18,671 deaths, or 17 percent, more than the historical average.

In the data release on Nov. 25, the ABS noted that of registered deaths; there had been a rise in the number of Australians dying from dementia (18.9 percent above the baseline average), diabetes (20.8 percent higher than the baseline average), cancer, and COVID-19.

Karen Cutter, a spokesperson for the Actuaries Institute of Australia (AIA) said in a media release (pdf) that even after the Institute’s COVID-19 Mortality Working Group removed all “from” and “with” COVID-19 deaths, it was not clear why Australians were dying in larger numbers from other diseases such as ischaemic heart disease, cancer, and cerebrovascular disease in 2021 and 2022.

In an analysis (pdf) from Nov. 3, the AIA noted that 1,200 more Australians had died from ischaemic heart disease than expected, while cerebrovascular disease had 450 more deaths than normal. Meanwhile, mortality rates from diabetes increased by 400 deaths, and dementia saw an extra 800 deaths.

According to the ABS, between January and August this year, 7,727 Australians died from COVID-19.

“It is not clear what might be driving this, although we expect that at least part of the excess will be in respect of people who otherwise may have succumbed to respiratory disease in 2020 and 2021,” said Cutter.

They also said that diabetes deaths have generally been higher than expected throughout the pandemic.

Cutter noted that the AIA had also noticed that of the excess deaths in the 0-44 and 45-64 age bands were small, and the number of women dying was higher than expected.

She has called on the federal government to launch an inquiry into the cause of the spike.

“The differences are worth investigation, although the small numbers mean that there is considerable natural variation,” she said.

Spiking Mortality Rates a Global Phenomenon

The spike in mortality rates is being experienced globally, with the UK’s Chief Medical Officer, Sir Chris Whitty, as well as Sir Patrick Vallance, the country’s Chief Scientific Adviser, declaring the country is facing a “prolonged period” of excess deaths after people differed treatment during the initial stages of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the UK’s health secretary Steve Barclay said that the government needed to come clean about the excess deaths.

In a speech to the Spectator Health Summit in London on Nov. 28, Barclay said that the government must share the scale of the COVID backlog, which he estimated was now “around now 7.1 million patients.”

We know from the data that there are more 50-to 64-year olds with cardiovascular issues. It’s the result of delays in that age group seeing a GP because of the pandemic and, in some cases, not getting statins for hypertension in time,” he said.

“When coupled with delays in ambulance times, we see this reflected in the excess death numbers. In time, we may well see a similar challenge in cancer data,” Barclay said.

COVID-19 Lingering Effects

The AIA agrees that delayed medical treatment may be a cause behind Australia’s rising death rate.

In an analysis of the pandemic in 2022, they said that it was highly likely that delays in medical care was a contributing factor to the excess death rates from other diseases.

“Pressure on the health, hospital and aged care systems, including ambulance ramping and bed block, could lead to people not getting the care they require, either as they avoid seeking help, or their care is not as timely as it might have been in pre-pandemic times,” they said.

“There is some evidence that this may be affecting cancer deaths. It may also be a factor in higher deaths from other causes, such as ischaemic heart disease, diabetes, and the large ‘other’ category.”

They also noted that COVID-19 lingering health effects could also be contributing to the increased rates.

Studies show that coronavirus is associated with increased mortality risks from heart disease and other causes. However, because doctors certifying the death would not necessarily know of the infection if it had occurred months prior, this could demonstrate a causative link several months after recovery from COVID-19.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/08/2022 - 21:00

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