Connect with us

International

The youth movement grows up. Climate Fight podcast part four transcript

This is a transcript of part 4 of Climate Fight: the world’s biggest negotiation, a series from The Anthill podcast.

Published

on

What effect does youth climate activism have on negotiations such as COP26 in Glasgow? John Gomez via Shutterstock

This is a transcript of The youth movement grows up, part four of Climate Fight: the world’s biggest negotiation, a series from The Anthill podcast tied to the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow. In this episode, we talk to experts about how countries make sure not to leave people behind and widen inequalities as they shift away from fossil fuels.


Greta Thunberg: There is no planet B. There is no planet blah. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. This is not about some expensive, politically correct green act of bunny-hugging or blah blah blah. Net zero by 2050 blah, blah blah. Net zero blah, blah, blah. Climate neutral blah, blah, blah. This is all we hear from our so-called leaders. Words. Words that sound great but so far has led to no action.

Jack Marley: Over the last few years, young people around the world have voiced their outrage over the climate crisis.

Chanting: What do we want? Climate justice. When do we want it? Now.

Jack: Young people have a unique stake in climate breakdown, they face a future world that looks nothing like the one their parents had.

Chanting: And we demand change. We want change, we want change, we want change.

Jack: I’m Jack Marley. And this is Climate Fight episode 4: the youth movement grows up.

Ahead of COP26, in an effort to find out how decisions are made, I want to explore the role of young people. For instance, is the youth climate movement as strong as it once was?

Harriet Thew: So, I think we have to go back to 2018 at least. So, Greta Tunberg started striking outside the Swedish parliament. Youth climate marches started happening in the US at the zero hour protests. And particularly importantly, that year in October, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC report came out on what 1.5 degrees of warming would mean for the world and what we’d need to do to achieve it.

I’m Dr. Harriet Thew. I’m from the Sustainability Research Institute at the University of Leeds and my research focuses on youth participation in climate governance and climate change education.

Harriet: So that really catalysed action from young people and from older people through Extinction Rebellion as well in 2019. I saw Greta Thunberg at the UN climate negotiations in Katowice at the end of 2018 and she did not make anywhere near as big of a stir as she did the following year. So she was kind of starting to get well-known, but it was really in 2019, the Fridays for Future, or School Strikes for Climate as it’s called in the UK, that the movement really took off.

Newsclip: Today’s lesson: civil disobedience. Here in Manchester and up and down the country, thousands of students from reception to year 13 skipped school to call for action on climate change.

Jack: I’m kind of quite interested in the idea of age and how that was really significant in the 2019 youth strikes. And I was just wondering, what do you think the influence of young people is on climate politics more broadly?

Harriet: Yeah, I think young people are particularly good at raising the profile of upcoming events and policy areas, capturing the public interest and emphasising urgency, the need to act now. Because young people have symbolic power. They’re representative of a huge proportion of the global population and they have moral power, so they’re seen as having greater moral integrity because they’re not being paid to take a particular stance. So, they’re sort of seen as representing the moral voice and moral interest and going a bit further than some organisations go in demanding change and saying what needs to be done.


COP26: the world's biggest climate talks

This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.
Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. More.


Jack: Right, and so how does that moral voice of young people, what kind of influence does that have on decisions at the UN climate negotiations, the COP?

Harriet: For example, the youth constituency in the UN climate negotiations, Youngo, has had quite a lot of influence on the policy that is about climate change education, because they’re seen as recognised experts in that area. So, going and being able to share their lived experiences and say, this is what happens in my school or university, or this is the education that I had, and this is why it works or doesn’t work, leads to very tangible changes in UN policy that you can see, you can document over time. Whereas the kind of bigger protests, moral voice, general messages of we need change and we need it now, it’s much more difficult to measure the kind of tangible impact of that.

Jack: Just before COP26 kicks off, the 16th Conference of Youth will also take place in Glasgow.

Harriet: Young people from about 140 countries get together. The main output is that they create a policy document that is given usually to the COP president, and to other people within the COP. It’ll be young people probably getting altogether to think about what they want to see coming up in those negotiations.

Jack: So does this youth conference influence the tone of the COP at all? What kind of influence do they have, if at all, on the adults meeting right afterwards at the at the COP?

Harriet: It’s a really good question. By the time governments get to the COP, they have already determined for the most part the positions that they’re going to be taking at that COP. So at that last minute stage it’s very difficult to influence very much. You could say that it’s a bit symbolic. It depends on how decision-makers respond to it, whether or not they actually read the declaration that the young people have come up with or not, and how much attention they give to that would very much depend on the COP president or whoever else has been given it. There are also declarations from previous years. It’s hard to say whether host governments, for example, would look at the outputs from the previous COP to think about how to include young people’s perspectives.

Jack: And I guess that another problem that youth climate activists have at this conference is that there are probably a lot of adults who would look at people who are, you know, in their teens or early 20s and say that, you know, you’re too young to really know what you’re talking about and I remember when I was your age and I had all these, sort of, these unrealistic views of how the world works. What would you really say to someone who levels that criticism at young climate strikers?

Harriet: Yeah, you get a lot of that. When young people come forward to engage in anything they’re quite readily patronised and deemed to not know enough. I think it’s interesting in relation to climate change because although climate change education is very inadequate and needs improving, it does exist. So, young people are learning about climate change in school and through social media and through non-formal education groups in a way that those older decision-makers probably didn’t get during their schooling. So it might be that they’ve had more kind of formal educational training on climate issues than the politicians have.

In terms of this idea of “when you grow up, you’ll understand that it’s more complicated and you’re too naive, and this is too, kind of, idealised”, I’ve noticed that a lot of the time young people are a bit ahead of the curve in what they’re asking for in terms of climate action. They’re a bit less cautious, a bit more honest about what needs to be done and really acknowledging the urgency of the situation. So they’re often five years ahead of everybody else.

For example, in 2009, 2010, at the COPs in Copenhagen and Durban, young people were calling very strongly for the target of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, which didn’t then come into the Paris agreement until 2015. And we’re still not on target to meet it, but they were advocating for that at that point. And leaving fossil fuels in the ground. I was at the Rio +20 sustainable development conference in 2012 and young people were very much calling for an end to fossil fuel subsidies and leaving fossil fuels in the ground rather than burning them, which is becoming much more mainstream in climate discourse as we realise that we’re going to need to make some of those hard choices.

But young people are a little less swayed by “Oh, this is going to cost my business a lot of money, and how am I going to transfer my employees from this role to that role?” or whatever it is, and can be a bit more kind of forward thinking and visionary in terms of what what they’re saying needs to happen.

Jack: We wanted to introduce Harriet to a young climate activist: Abel Harvie Clarke. He’s from Newcastle and going to university in London. They spoke when Abel was outside, just on his way home from a protest.

Abel: Nice to meet you, Harriet. Yeah, I’ve enjoyed reading your stuff as well, so thanks.

Harriet: Nice to meet you too. Where are you right now?

Abel: I’m just away from the XR rebellion in London. Came down yesterday to be part of the rebellion here.

Harriet: Great. So tell me about when you first got involved in climate change activism.

Abel: It was the school strike movement really that got me involved. I feel I’d been to a couple of Extinction Rebellion meetings before, but I wasn’t so sure on it, I wasn’t quite sure what was going on. And the school strikes start happening, I just realised that no one else was going to do it for us, you know!

I had to go do it ourselves, so started getting together with other people in my sixth form and organised a walk-out for my sixth form of about 70 people to join the Global Climate Strike in March. Going through that process, yeah the many trials and tribulations that it threw up and it kind of, I guess being part of that protest and that movement then revealed, yeah, the wider struggle that we have on our hands.

Harriet: Yeah. That’s interesting, so you organised it for your sixth form. How did your school respond to that?

Abel: With - I was going to say two faces, but probably more than two faces - I don’t think anyone felt any real support. I would, it would definitely be true to say we got the support of individual teachers, definitely I think gave help where they could. But I guess the school as an institution was very much don’t go, you will be punished if you go. That’s what they told the students, what they told the press was, “oh, we won’t punish anyone, we’re supportive of students thinking about climate change” and then literally at the same time there was kids sitting in isolation in detention for being part of the protest.

Harriet: So one of the demands of the youth climate strikes was about teaching the future. Did you learn about climate change at school, and if so do you think it prepared you and your peers for tackling climate change, coping with an uncertain future, creating futures that you want, and potentially pursuing green jobs, if indeed that is something that you would be interested in doing?

Abel: I mean, I was taught about climate change to the extent of like almost the scientific equation of more greenhouse gases in the air, it means the world heats up. And I guess maybe we talked about the fact that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increasing, but like it’s quite detached from what’s actually happening and the points at which, like, our lives interact with it.

It’s a very de-politicised version of climate change as well. So like it never went in to the things that make climate change happen who’s controlling the levers of climate change and who’s feeling the impacts of it.

Harriet: Thanks, that’s really interesting. Has how you think and talk about climate change changed over time and has your approach to activism changed at all, sort of the activities that you’ve been involved in?

Abel: We keep learning about the struggles that people have been fighting against climate change for a long time. People who’ve been kicked off their land for generations, people who’ve had water shortages. There’s a lot of lessons to be learned from around the world.

Harriet: Yeah. That actually links to something I’ve found quite a lot in my research where I’ve kind of found that initially a catalyst and talking point for a young climate activist is around inter-generational justice with messaging like “it’s our future, so we deserve a voice”, and “how old are you going to be in 2050” - asking older generations that. And over time, I’ve seen quite a lot of young climate activists sort of move away from that type of advocacy after hearing stories from people.

And I’ve seen some young people start to feel a bit ashamed of their sort of relatively privileged position in the movement and stop talking about youth as a consequence and stop talking about future and just talking about the need to support global south countries and other vulnerable social groups like Indigenous peoples and women. And I wonder if that’s something that you’ve seen happen or have felt yourself, the more that you’ve interacted with people, the more that it’s become harder to, I don’t know, maybe keep up some of the narrative that the youth climate movement started with.

Abel: Yeah, it’s really interesting that’s come out in your research, that’s important. I am like a little bit wary of people can kind of bounce to the other extreme and say, kind of almost absolve themselves of any responsibility and say, because we’re privileged there’s nothing for us to do all we can do is support other people elsewhere. The conclusion is to stand on the sidelines and cheer on other people. And I think that’s definitely no answer either. There’s like people in the older generation who’ve been fighting, fighting, fighting really hard. And even whether that’s for hundreds of years or even in the last ten, 20 years, absolutely if we don’t take on the lessons from what they’ve learned and we’re not starting a fresh.

The generational divide is quite a simple one say “oh, well you old people messed it up and now it’s young people dealing with it”. I have no doubt there’s, unfortunately, there’s a lot of young people who will continue the same mistakes and abuses that older generations did. Why would we want to organise by ourselves? Maybe have some spaces, but I dunno if you’ve seen spaces that young people can kind of exist without any guidance or support for older groups. Is it a thing that we’re trying to be quite like youth separatists?

Harriet: Not separatists, no, there are quite a lot of youth groups that are entirely youth led and are very keen that their advocacy and campaigning is all decided by young people rather than by other groups that are very keen to show solidarity with other groups. For me, having a youth voice on climate change though it’s more than just having young people represent and repeat the messages of scientists or NGOs, but in a more enthusiastic or creative or radical way. Cause we know that climate change doesn’t affect everyone equally and that members of the same local communities, even in the same geographical communities can have quite different experiences, including women and girls, people living in poverty, people of colour, people with disabilities, et cetera.

And what I find is that what’s often overlooked is that youth intersects with all of those groups and then that produces unique challenges. So, for example, I’ve just been doing some research with young people in South Asia and there was some interesting findings around transgender youth in Pakistan that were vulnerable in a way that wasn’t really getting picked up. Or school kids in Yorkshire that their school closed because of flooding and they had to travel 45 minutes to a different school and then got bullied because they were a different school and they didn’t know anyone. And obviously there’s different levels of vulnerability there between the two examples, but there are things that young people experience in communities experiencing climate impacts, that older people in those communities don’t experience and that those issues aren’t really very well-represented in decision making processes.

And it’s something that to my mind, the youth climate movement isn’t so good at, of identifying their unique vulnerabilities, needs and perspectives and communicating them so that youth are seen as having something different to say and it’s really valuable. So I’d like to see the youth climate movement doing a bit more to share specific stories of how young people in impacted communities around the world are experiencing climate impacts so that their needs can be factored in in processes that are designing adaptation and mitigation projects and in making investments as well. Yeah, I wonder if, if you agree with that and how young activists kind of navigate that, and if there’s a need for more support to build young people’s capacity to then identify and share their unique lived experiences as young people?

Abel: I think it’s really interesting, it kind of opens up, it’s become a perennial question about identity politics, about, like, how that fits in with other analyses, I think. Cause I agree with what you’re saying about the specific experiences young people have and like that is definitely a unique contribution, but I guess I’m kind of wary of that just sort of being relayed as, like, another one ticking the box of another inequality and saying, “oh, we’ve had these voices heard”. But I don’t think young people’s voices on executive boards or in shareholders planning meetings, I don’t think like the presence of young people’s voices is really gonna, is that necessarily crucial? And young people is probably one of the social groups that has one of the widest experiences of climate change, I think. Well, from those who live lives of privilege because of profiting off fossil fuels or whatever through like family ties, to all scales of like intersecting oppressions.

Harriet: That’s something that I’ve found in my research actually that I think is really valuable, that youth climate activists don’t necessarily fit a particular mold. They’re much more open to trying different approaches. One day they might be, you know, put on the suit jacket and be talking to politicians, and the next day they’ve got their t-shirt on and they’re in a strike. And it’s very much more about being exposed to and engaging with a much wider variety or spectrum of views and thinking about finding their own role that fits within that and how they want to contribute but while still supporting others that are trying to essentially achieve the same outcome, but may be pursuing different ways of doing that.

I found that quite different to older activist groups who tend to have a sort of corporate or organisational identity, of “this is the way that we dress and speak and interact and present ourselves”. It’s something that I find quite refreshing about the youth climate activist movement, that it is a little bit more open-minded, I guess. But I wonder, is there anything that you think youth activists can add to the climate movement that older adults can’t?

Abel: I think what you just described in like, not conforming to that kind of like corporate activism is really important. I think yeah more mobile, more like willing to go out and in these like more, sometimes more confrontational and more challenging actions. I heard some describe it as like youth climate strikers wanna knock the door down and charge through before they know what’s on the other side of it. Because they realised the door still needs to be knocked down and that we don’t know quite what we’re heading for, but until we start going for it and like that’s the process by which we work out where to go is just by getting on with it.

Harriet: Well I do see actually that sometimes it’s a little bit easily dismissed by older generations who say, “Oh, I thought that when I was your age, and then I grew up and became more realistic”, which I find a little bit infuriating because it’s, it’s not about, for me, it’s not about as you get older, you sort of conform to the status quo. When we are all in agreement that the status quo is unworkable and that it can’t continue and that it needs to change because we need emissions to peak and decline now. So I think it’s an interesting rhetoric that people use in response to young people.

I wonder one of the things I’ve come across in my research is kind of a loss of momentum over time as young activists either burnout through frustration or kind of age out of feeling that they can speak for youth or move on and get other jobs, and then are a little bit more tied by having to tow the line of whoever they’re working for. Have you seen any of those issues in the group that you’ve been working with?

Abel: Yeah, definitely. It has been hard. I mean the dropping of the pandemic definitely didn’t help the school strike movement, but I agree that it was dwindling before the pandemic hit as well. I think that was just like the two at the same time made it really difficult. Maybe people could be discouraged by that feeling of like, should we put all this energy into it, we did all this stuff and then like what happened, kind of thing?

And again it comes back I think to sort of being aware of the history of struggle and realise that although the school strikes themselves are quite a new thing, campaigning and protesting and taking action about climate change is not a new thing. People have been trying a long, hard for a long time, so we’re not going to solve it overnight either. Then again, it can’t just be sort of solved by mindless action. There needs to be a good bit of reflection as well in there.

I’ve seen some quite good critiques of the idea of activists, being someone who just always acts and like doesn’t really think about what the action is doing. Instead, have have the action, but yeah, reflection as well, and think about tactics. And then I guess that’s not maybe as fun or exciting as going on the street and dancing and music and shouting. That builds more slowly and I think going on the street and protesting is a really good way to start that.

Harriet: Yeah, I’ve seen some research on that from a guy called Mark Hudson in Manchester, who says if all you have is a hammer, you see every problem as a nail, which is like, if all you do as a group is have protests, then you just do that for every problem, but some problems, you know, protest isn’t necessarily the right approach and thinking about how to apply the right tool for the right opportunity. Which I think is something that, as we said before, we’ve seen that, with youth activists not conforming as much and thinking about, strategically, what is the right approach?

Jack: Listening to Harriet and Abel reminded me of how diverse the youth climate movement is, and how it benefits from looking outwards to related struggles all around the world.

Many young activists are disillusioned with the lack of progress on emissions since students first walked out of lessons a year and a half ago. What other options are there for young people to force action on climate change? We spoke with another researcher to find out.

Lynda Dunlop: I’m Lynda Dunlop. I’m a senior lecturer in Science Education at the University of York where I teach and do research mainly in science and environmental education.

Jack: For Lynda’s recent research, she spoke to young people affected by fracking – that’s a process of extracting gas. To do it, people inject water, sand and chemicals into rock to create fractures that the gas can flow through. The teens Lynda spoke to lived in England and Northern Ireland and they lived in places where fracking was happening or where companies were looking to start fracking.

Lynda: So they were all aged between 15 to 19, and they were concerned about, fracking in their local community, but also on the impacts of fossil fuel extraction on the climate. So we were asking them about fracking, but also about their responses to protest.

One of the kinds of things that we find surprising was a preference for other forms of political participation. So, a preference for things like lobbying, making legal challenges, signing petitions, writing to MPs, those sorts of methods of protesting or being active.

Jack: So, what are the drawbacks of protesting, exactly?

Lynda: Well, for the young people we spoke to, it was mainly around disruption and the fact that affects the communities that are also affected by the fracking, by the thing that they are objecting to. It doesn’t always reach the decision-makers who can actually listen to them and do something as a result.

So the sorts of things that they talked about were holding up, holding up barriers, in streets, outside access along the roads, outside entrance to the site, those sorts of things.

And, I guess whilst they saw that it raised awareness and it got media attention, often the media attention was about the protest or aspects of the protest rather than on the issue, which then kind of can cause division within their communities.

Jack: So what are the sort of perceived benefits of those other methods of activism? I suppose, the letter writing and petitions that you described earlier.

Lynda: The sorts of actions that they preferred they saw as being able to reach decision-makers directly. Being able to communicate with the people with responsibility, being able to connect with larger networks and groups – so for example, when they were talking about social media activism – connecting with other people with similar interests seemed to be quite important to them. And probably most importantly control over the message. So the message in the media was often about the protest, whereas they felt by using other methods, using their own voice, they’re able to say precisely what the issue was.

Jack: Did you get a sense from them that they saw any limits within those tactics as well?

Lynda: Effectiveness really, I think. So I’d say that was kind of the, the key message overall is kind of a frustration with formal ways of participating, so a feeling of not being listened to and really seeing protest as an action of last resort when legal processes fail, when politicians don’t listen, when companies don’t listen.

Jack: I mean, I’m actually really struck by your research because usually whenever there’s sort of a big demonstration, you know, whether it’s this thing on the M25 where activists have been blocking roads and stuff like that, the government’s usual response is to say that the protests themselves are reckless and counterproductive and all these kinds of things, and it seems as if the young people you spoke to kind of accepted that and were sort of sympathetic to that view. And even going through the channels that, you know, that are sort of considered legitimate, like speaking to MPs and stuff, they still found that their kind of desires were frustrated, even though they were doing the things that were kind of supposed to be a proper way of airing your views on something, I suppose.

Lynda: Yeah, I think that was one of the interesting things, I suppose, about the research is just how well-informed they were, they respected the processes and they wanted the processes to work. And it was really that frustration that they didn’t work, regardless of whether they were taking part in protest or not: they did want political processes to work.

Jack: That’s, I think that’s, it’s just very sad isn’t it really. But I think that’s a very good point you make. The last thing I wanted to ask is that do you think that young people are more limited in the tactics they can employ when it comes to trying to effect change?

Lynda: Well, yeah, I mean, I guess most of the participants that we spoke to couldn’t vote, below voting age, and they tend not to be the ones in the house that are kind of making those decisions about which energy provider and maybe not paying their energy bills. They were also living in more rural areas where they felt that maybe they weren’t listened to as much as if they were in an urban area.

And they also tend to be in education all day. They’ve got lots of things going on, and I think maybe that’s one of the key things that I’d say is, for decision-makers, if you go into a school where you’re speaking to a broad section of young people from different areas, they’re really well-informed about the issues, about how to take part. And I think a lot could be learned from listening to people in those schools and colleges.

Jack: It’s fair to say that young climate activists are used to being disappointed by those in power.

But I don’t think world leaders will be able to ignore them forever. The movement is grounded in communities all over the world and activists like Abel aren’t giving up, but are instead learning more about the climate crisis and how it relates to other struggles. Strikes have resumed in some places and young people are trying different strategies.

Watching how the youth climate movement has evolved over the past few years, it may just be getting started.

Jack: If you’re listening to this episode when it first comes out, COP26 is about to start in Glasgow. I’ll be there and have an episode coming out right after. In that episode we won’t just tell you what was agreed at COP, we’ll tell you how, taking you behind all the factors that can make or break an international climate negotiation. See you for episode five.

Jack: Thanks to everybody who spoke to us for this episode.

The Anthill is produced by The Conversation in London. The Anthill is produced by The Conversation in London. You can get in touch with us on on Twitter @TC_Audio, on Instagram at theconversationdotcom or via email. And you can also sign up for our free daily email by clicking the link in the show notes.

If you’re enjoying the series, please follow the show, and leave a rating or review wherever podcast apps allow you to. Please tell your friends and family about the show too.

Climate fight, the world’s biggest negotiation is produced for The Conversation by Tiffany Cassidy. Sound design is by Eloise Stevens and the series theme tune is by Neeta Sarl. Our editor is Gemma Ware and production help comes from Holly Stevens. Thanks also go to Will de Freitas, Stephen Harris, Jo Adetunji, Chris Waiting, Katie Francis, Khalil Cassimally, Alice Mason and Zoe Jazz at The Conversation. To James Harper and his team at UKRI. And to Imriel Morgan and Sharai White for helping us to promote the series. I’m Jack Marley. Thanks for listening.


UK Research and Innovation (UKRI)

Climate Fight: the world’s biggest negotiation is a podcast series supported by UK Research and Innovation, the UK’s largest public funder of research and innovation.


The Conversation has received support from UK Research and Innovation to make the Climate Fight podcast series. Harriet Thew is a recipient of the UKRI-funded COP26 fellowship. Lynda Dunlop receives grant funding from the British Educational Research Association and from the The University of York Economic and Social Research Council Impact Acceleration Account.

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says “Copper’s Time Is Now”

Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says "Copper’s Time Is Now"

After languishing for the past two years in a tight range despite recurring…

Published

on

Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says "Copper's Time Is Now"

After languishing for the past two years in a tight range despite recurring speculation about declining global supply, copper has finally broken out, surging to the highest price in the past year, just shy of $9,000 a ton as supply cuts hit the market; At the same time the price of the world's "other" most important mined commodity has diverged, as iron ore has tumbled amid growing demand headwinds out of China's comatose housing sector where not even ghost cities are being built any more.

Copper surged almost 5% this week, ending a months-long spell of inertia, as investors focused on risks to supply at various global mines and smelters. As Bloomberg adds, traders also warmed to the idea that the worst of a global downturn is in the past, particularly for metals like copper that are increasingly used in electric vehicles and renewables.

Yet the commodity crash of recent years is hardly over, as signs of the headwinds in traditional industrial sectors are still all too obvious in the iron ore market, where futures fell below $100 a ton for the first time in seven months on Friday as investors bet that China’s years-long property crisis will run through 2024, keeping a lid on demand.

Indeed, while the mood surrounding copper has turned almost euphoric, sentiment on iron ore has soured since the conclusion of the latest National People’s Congress in Beijing, where the CCP set a 5% goal for economic growth, but offered few new measures that would boost infrastructure or other construction-intensive sectors.

As a result, the main steelmaking ingredient has shed more than 30% since early January as hopes of a meaningful revival in construction activity faded. Loss-making steel mills are buying less ore, and stockpiles are piling up at Chinese ports. The latest drop will embolden those who believe that the effects of President Xi Jinping’s property crackdown still have significant room to run, and that last year’s rally in iron ore may have been a false dawn.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, on Friday there were fresh signs that weakness in China’s industrial economy is hitting the copper market too, with stockpiles tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange surging to the highest level since the early days of the pandemic. The hope is that headwinds in traditional industrial areas will be offset by an ongoing surge in usage in electric vehicles and renewables.

And while industrial conditions in Europe and the US also look soft, there’s growing optimism about copper usage in India, where rising investment has helped fuel blowout growth rates of more than 8% — making it the fastest-growing major economy.

In any case, with the demand side of the equation still questionable, the main catalyst behind copper’s powerful rally is an unexpected tightening in global mine supplies, driven mainly by last year’s closure of a giant mine in Panama (discussed here), but there are also growing worries about output in Zambia, which is facing an El Niño-induced power crisis.

On Wednesday, copper prices jumped on huge volumes after smelters in China held a crisis meeting on how to cope with a sharp drop in processing fees following disruptions to supplies of mined ore. The group stopped short of coordinated production cuts, but pledged to re-arrange maintenance work, reduce runs and delay the startup of new projects. In the coming weeks investors will be watching Shanghai exchange inventories closely to gauge both the strength of demand and the extent of any capacity curtailments.

“The increase in SHFE stockpiles has been bigger than we’d anticipated, but we expect to see them coming down over the next few weeks,” Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone. “If the pace of the inventory builds doesn’t start to slow, investors will start to question whether smelters are actually cutting and whether the impact of weak construction activity is starting to weigh more heavily on the market.”

* * *

Few have been as happy with the recent surge in copper prices as Goldman's commodity team, where copper has long been a preferred trade (even if it may have cost the former team head Jeff Currie his job due to his unbridled enthusiasm for copper in the past two years which saw many hedge fund clients suffer major losses).

As Goldman's Nicholas Snowdon writes in a note titled "Copper's time is now" (available to pro subscribers in the usual place)...

... there has been a "turn in the industrial cycle." Specifically according to the Goldman analyst, after a prolonged downturn, "incremental evidence now points to a bottoming out in the industrial cycle, with the global manufacturing PMI in expansion for the first time since September 2022." As a result, Goldman now expects copper to rise to $10,000/t by year-end and then $12,000/t by end of Q1-25.’

Here are the details:

Previous inflexions in global manufacturing cycles have been associated with subsequent sustained industrial metals upside, with copper and aluminium rising on average 25% and 9% over the next 12 months. Whilst seasonal surpluses have so far limited a tightening alignment at a micro level, we expect deficit inflexions to play out from quarter end, particularly for metals with severe supply binds. Supplemented by the influence of anticipated Fed easing ahead in a non-recessionary growth setting, another historically positive performance factor for metals, this should support further upside ahead with copper the headline act in this regard.

Goldman then turns to what it calls China's "green policy put":

Much of the recent focus on the “Two Sessions” event centred on the lack of significant broad stimulus, and in particular the limited property support. In our view it would be wrong – just as in 2022 and 2023 – to assume that this will result in weak onshore metals demand. Beijing’s emphasis on rapid growth in the metals intensive green economy, as an offset to property declines, continues to act as a policy put for green metals demand. After last year’s strong trends, evidence year-to-date is again supportive with aluminium and copper apparent demand rising 17% and 12% y/y respectively. Moreover, the potential for a ‘cash for clunkers’ initiative could provide meaningful right tail risk to that healthy demand base case. Yet there are also clear metal losers in this divergent policy setting, with ongoing pressure on property related steel demand generating recent sharp iron ore downside.

Meanwhile, Snowdon believes that the driver behind Goldman's long-running bullish view on copper - a global supply shock - continues:

Copper’s supply shock progresses. The metal with most significant upside potential is copper, in our view. The supply shock which began with aggressive concentrate destocking and then sharp mine supply downgrades last year, has now advanced to an increasing bind on metal production, as reflected in this week's China smelter supply rationing signal. With continued positive momentum in China's copper demand, a healthy refined import trend should generate a substantial ex-China refined deficit this year. With LME stocks having halved from Q4 peak, China’s imminent seasonal demand inflection should accelerate a path into extreme tightness by H2. Structural supply underinvestment, best reflected in peak mine supply we expect next year, implies that demand destruction will need to be the persistent solver on scarcity, an effect requiring substantially higher pricing than current, in our view. In this context, we maintain our view that the copper price will surge into next year (GSe 2025 $15,000/t average), expecting copper to rise to $10,000/t by year-end and then $12,000/t by end of Q1-25’

Another reason why Goldman is doubling down on its bullish copper outlook: gold.

The sharp rally in gold price since the beginning of March has ended the period of consolidation that had been present since late December. Whilst the initial catalyst for the break higher came from a (gold) supportive turn in US data and real rates, the move has been significantly amplified by short term systematic buying, which suggests less sticky upside. In this context, we expect gold to consolidate for now, with our economists near term view on rates and the dollar suggesting limited near-term catalysts for further upside momentum. Yet, a substantive retracement lower will also likely be limited by resilience in physical buying channels. Nonetheless, in the midterm we continue to hold a constructive view on gold underpinned by persistent strength in EM demand as well as eventual Fed easing, which should crucially reactivate the largely for now dormant ETF buying channel. In this context, we increase our average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,090/toz to $2,180/toz, targeting a move to $2,300/toz by year-end.

Much more in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 14:25

Read More

Continue Reading

International

The millions of people not looking for work in the UK may be prioritising education, health and freedom

Economic inactivity is not always the worst option.

Published

on

By

Taking time out. pathdoc/Shutterstock

Around one in five British people of working age (16-64) are now outside the labour market. Neither in work nor looking for work, they are officially labelled as “economically inactive”.

Some of those 9.2 million people are in education, with many students not active in the labour market because they are studying full-time. Others are older workers who have chosen to take early retirement.

But that still leaves a large number who are not part of the labour market because they are unable to work. And one key driver of economic inactivity in recent years has been illness.

This increase in economic inactivity – which has grown since before the pandemic – is not just harming the economy, but also indicative of a deeper health crisis.

For those suffering ill health, there are real constraints on access to work. People with health-limiting conditions cannot just slot into jobs that are available. They need help to address the illnesses they have, and to re-engage with work through organisations offering supportive and healthy work environments.

And for other groups, such as stay-at-home parents, businesses need to offer flexible work arrangements and subsidised childcare to support the transition from economic inactivity into work.

The government has a role to play too. Most obviously, it could increase investment in the NHS. Rising levels of poor health are linked to years of under-investment in the health sector and economic inactivity will not be tackled without more funding.

Carrots and sticks

For the time being though, the UK government appears to prefer an approach which mixes carrots and sticks. In the March 2024 budget, for example, the chancellor cut national insurance by 2p as a way of “making work pay”.

But it is unclear whether small tax changes like this will have any effect on attracting the economically inactive back into work.

Jeremy Hunt also extended free childcare. But again, questions remain over whether this is sufficient to remove barriers to work for those with parental responsibilities. The high cost and lack of availability of childcare remain key weaknesses in the UK economy.

The benefit system meanwhile has been designed to push people into work. Benefits in the UK remain relatively ungenerous and hard to access compared with other rich countries. But labour shortages won’t be solved by simply forcing the economically inactive into work, because not all of them are ready or able to comply.

It is also worth noting that work itself may be a cause of bad health. The notion of “bad work” – work that does not pay enough and is unrewarding in other ways – can lead to economic inactivity.

There is also evidence that as work has become more intensive over recent decades, for some people, work itself has become a health risk.

The pandemic showed us how certain groups of workers (including so-called “essential workers”) suffered more ill health due to their greater exposure to COVID. But there are broader trends towards lower quality work that predate the pandemic, and these trends suggest improving job quality is an important step towards tackling the underlying causes of economic inactivity.

Freedom

Another big section of the economically active population who cannot be ignored are those who have retired early and deliberately left the labour market behind. These are people who want and value – and crucially, can afford – a life without work.

Here, the effects of the pandemic can be seen again. During those years of lockdowns, furlough and remote working, many of us reassessed our relationship with our jobs. Changed attitudes towards work among some (mostly older) workers can explain why they are no longer in the labour market and why they may be unresponsive to job offers of any kind.

Sign on railings supporting NHS staff during pandemic.
COVID made many people reassess their priorities. Alex Yeung/Shutterstock

And maybe it is from this viewpoint that we should ultimately be looking at economic inactivity – that it is actually a sign of progress. That it represents a move towards freedom from the drudgery of work and the ability of some people to live as they wish.

There are utopian visions of the future, for example, which suggest that individual and collective freedom could be dramatically increased by paying people a universal basic income.

In the meantime, for plenty of working age people, economic inactivity is a direct result of ill health and sickness. So it may be that the levels of economic inactivity right now merely show how far we are from being a society which actually supports its citizens’ wellbeing.

David Spencer has received funding from the ESRC.

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills

Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills

By Autumn Spredemann of The Epoch Times

Tens of thousands of illegal…

Published

on

Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills

By Autumn Spredemann of The Epoch Times

Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants are flooding into U.S. hospitals for treatment and leaving billions in uncompensated health care costs in their wake.

The House Committee on Homeland Security recently released a report illustrating that from the estimated $451 billion in annual costs stemming from the U.S. border crisis, a significant portion is going to health care for illegal immigrants.

With the majority of the illegal immigrant population lacking any kind of medical insurance, hospitals and government welfare programs such as Medicaid are feeling the weight of these unanticipated costs.

Apprehensions of illegal immigrants at the U.S. border have jumped 48 percent since the record in fiscal year 2021 and nearly tripled since fiscal year 2019, according to Customs and Border Protection data.

Last year broke a new record high for illegal border crossings, surpassing more than 3.2 million apprehensions.

And with that sea of humanity comes the need for health care and, in most cases, the inability to pay for it.

In January, CEO of Denver Health Donna Lynne told reporters that 8,000 illegal immigrants made roughly 20,000 visits to the city’s health system in 2023.

The total bill for uncompensated care costs last year to the system totaled $140 million, said Dane Roper, public information officer for Denver Health. More than $10 million of it was attributed to “care for new immigrants,” he told The Epoch Times.

Though the amount of debt assigned to illegal immigrants is a fraction of the total, uncompensated care costs in the Denver Health system have risen dramatically over the past few years.

The total uncompensated costs in 2020 came to $60 million, Mr. Roper said. In 2022, the number doubled, hitting $120 million.

He also said their city hospitals are treating issues such as “respiratory illnesses, GI [gastro-intenstinal] illnesses, dental disease, and some common chronic illnesses such as asthma and diabetes.”

“The perspective we’ve been trying to emphasize all along is that providing healthcare services for an influx of new immigrants who are unable to pay for their care is adding additional strain to an already significant uncompensated care burden,” Mr. Roper said.

He added this is why a local, state, and federal response to the needs of the new illegal immigrant population is “so important.”

Colorado is far from the only state struggling with a trail of unpaid hospital bills.

EMS medics with the Houston Fire Department transport a Mexican woman the hospital in Houston on Aug. 12, 2020. (John Moore/Getty Images)

Dr. Robert Trenschel, CEO of the Yuma Regional Medical Center situated on the Arizona–Mexico border, said on average, illegal immigrants cost up to three times more in human resources to resolve their cases and provide a safe discharge.

“Some [illegal] migrants come with minor ailments, but many of them come in with significant disease,” Dr. Trenschel said during a congressional hearing last year.

“We’ve had migrant patients on dialysis, cardiac catheterization, and in need of heart surgery. Many are very sick.”

He said many illegal immigrants who enter the country and need medical assistance end up staying in the ICU ward for 60 days or more.

A large portion of the patients are pregnant women who’ve had little to no prenatal treatment. This has resulted in an increase in babies being born that require neonatal care for 30 days or longer.

Dr. Trenschel told The Epoch Times last year that illegal immigrants were overrunning healthcare services in his town, leaving the hospital with $26 million in unpaid medical bills in just 12 months.

ER Duty to Care

The Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act of 1986 requires that public hospitals participating in Medicare “must medically screen all persons seeking emergency care … regardless of payment method or insurance status.”

The numbers are difficult to gauge as the policy position of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is that it “will not require hospital staff to ask patients directly about their citizenship or immigration status.”

In southern California, again close to the border with Mexico, some hospitals are struggling with an influx of illegal immigrants.

American patients are enduring longer wait times for doctor appointments due to a nursing shortage in the state, two health care professionals told The Epoch Times in January.

A health care worker at a hospital in Southern California, who asked not to be named for fear of losing her job, told The Epoch Times that “the entire health care system is just being bombarded” by a steady stream of illegal immigrants.

“Our healthcare system is so overwhelmed, and then add on top of that tuberculosis, COVID-19, and other diseases from all over the world,” she said.

A Salvadorian man is aided by medical workers after cutting his leg while trying to jump on a truck in Matias Romero, Mexico, on Nov. 2, 2018. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

A newly-enacted law in California provides free healthcare for all illegal immigrants residing in the state. The law could cost taxpayers between $3 billion and $6 billion per year, according to recent estimates by state and federal lawmakers.

In New York, where the illegal immigration crisis has manifested most notably beyond the southern border, city and state officials have long been accommodating of illegal immigrants’ healthcare costs.

Since June 2014, when then-mayor Bill de Blasio set up The Task Force on Immigrant Health Care Access, New York City has worked to expand avenues for illegal immigrants to get free health care.

“New York City has a moral duty to ensure that all its residents have meaningful access to needed health care, regardless of their immigration status or ability to pay,” Mr. de Blasio stated in a 2015 report.

The report notes that in 2013, nearly 64 percent of illegal immigrants were uninsured. Since then, tens of thousands of illegal immigrants have settled in the city.

“The uninsured rate for undocumented immigrants is more than three times that of other noncitizens in New York City (20 percent) and more than six times greater than the uninsured rate for the rest of the city (10 percent),” the report states.

The report states that because healthcare providers don’t ask patients about documentation status, the task force lacks “data specific to undocumented patients.”

Some health care providers say a big part of the issue is that without a clear path to insurance or payment for non-emergency services, illegal immigrants are going to the hospital due to a lack of options.

“It’s insane, and it has been for years at this point,” Dana, a Texas emergency room nurse who asked to have her full name omitted, told The Epoch Times.

Working for a major hospital system in the greater Houston area, Dana has seen “a zillion” migrants pass through under her watch with “no end in sight.” She said many who are illegal immigrants arrive with treatable illnesses that require simple antibiotics. “Not a lot of GPs [general practitioners] will see you if you can’t pay and don’t have insurance.”

She said the “undocumented crowd” tends to arrive with a lot of the same conditions. Many find their way to Houston not long after crossing the southern border. Some of the common health issues Dana encounters include dehydration, unhealed fractures, respiratory illnesses, stomach ailments, and pregnancy-related concerns.

“This isn’t a new problem, it’s just worse now,” Dana said.

Emergency room nurses and EMTs tend to patients in hallways at the Houston Methodist The Woodlands Hospital in Houston on Aug. 18, 2021. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Medicaid Factor

One of the main government healthcare resources illegal immigrants use is Medicaid.

All those who don’t qualify for regular Medicaid are eligible for Emergency Medicaid, regardless of immigration status. By doing this, the program helps pay for the cost of uncompensated care bills at qualifying hospitals.

However, some loopholes allow access to the regular Medicaid benefits. “Qualified noncitizens” who haven’t been granted legal status within five years still qualify if they’re listed as a refugee, an asylum seeker, or a Cuban or Haitian national.

Yet the lion’s share of Medicaid usage by illegal immigrants still comes through state-level benefits and emergency medical treatment.

A Congressional report highlighted data from the CMS, which showed total Medicaid costs for “emergency services for undocumented aliens” in fiscal year 2021 surpassed $7 billion, and totaled more than $5 billion in fiscal 2022.

Both years represent a significant spike from the $3 billion in fiscal 2020.

An employee working with Medicaid who asked to be referred to only as Jennifer out of concern for her job, told The Epoch Times that at a state level, it’s easy for an illegal immigrant to access the program benefits.

Jennifer said that when exceptions are sent from states to CMS for approval, “denial is actually super rare. It’s usually always approved.”

She also said it comes as no surprise that many of the states with the highest amount of Medicaid spending are sanctuary states, which tend to have policies and laws that shield illegal immigrants from federal immigration authorities.

Moreover, Jennifer said there are ways for states to get around CMS guidelines. “It’s not easy, but it can and has been done.”

The first generation of illegal immigrants who arrive to the United States tend to be healthy enough to pass any pre-screenings, but Jennifer has observed that the subsequent generations tend to be sicker and require more access to care. If a family is illegally present, they tend to use Emergency Medicaid or nothing at all.

The Epoch Times asked Medicaid Services to provide the most recent data for the total uncompensated care that hospitals have reported. The agency didn’t respond.

Continue reading over at The Epoch Times

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 09:45

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending