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The Swiss cheese infographic that went viral

A visual representation of how to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 struck a chord with many in 2020. I won’t rehash all that has already been written so this is a Read More …
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A visual representation of how to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 struck a chord with many in 2020. I won’t rehash all that has already been written so this is a small timeline, some links and some of the thinking that went on. Much of the detail is already on the New York Times piece along with a very sun-gazing photo of yours truly if you need content for the office dartboard.

Professor James T Reason proposed a layered approach to reducing the risk of accidents due to human error.

I really liked this idea adapted to be a simple way to get across to everyone that no single intervention (layer) is perfect because they each have failings (holes) that can come and go and be made worse. But with the use of lots of layers, you have a better chance of, in this case, preventing transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

By the way, in Reason’s 1990 publication, this model wasn’t associated with cheese.

No Swiss cheese here – but a hole (limited window of accident opportunity) is apparent in an inadequate defence. Reason intended the order of these layers to be relevant, but for the COVID-19 Swiss cheese defence model version I put together, I moved away from the order of layers being important in favour of the package of layers (risk-reducing interventions) being key to preventing transmission SARS-CoV-2.
This is Figure 1 copied from J Reason, “The contribution of latent human failures to the breakdown of complex systems”, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B. 327, 475-484 (1990) [1]

Swiss cheese model (SCM)

In 2000, Prof Reason nicely illustrated his concept for a Swiss cheese model to describe a system approach to overcome innate human fallibilities.[3]

Figure copied from James Reason’s “Human error: models and management”, BMJ 2000; 320: 768-70. [3]

Holy thinking

Where do these holes come from? Let’s look at masks. We know they are good for preventing the wearer from spreading their virus-laden aerosols to others and into the air. They also serve some role in preventing a wearer from inhaling those aerosols. So what causes holes in this imperfect layer of risk reduction? Here are some ideas…

  • The mask is not worn properly (under the nose, on the chin, too loose)
  • Not disposing of the mask properly, putting others at risk of handling it
  • Not sanitising your hands after handling the mask
  • Fiddling with the outside of the mask while wearing it without sanitising your hands before touching your face or someone else
  • Not cleaning your mask properly or often enough
  • Sharing masks
  • Not using the right type of fabric or enough layers for your mask
  • Overconfidence that wearing a mask will be highly protective and thus engaging in risky behaviours as a result of that confidence

And those are just some of the holes in one layer!

You can see how sometimes there might be more or fewer holes, or bigger or smaller holes, at some times compared to others, depending on the behaviour of the mask-wearer. And if the holes in one layer line up with the holes in another layer – a virus can get through.

Prof Reason proposed this model as a way to layer multiple imperfect defences so as to maximise the chance of preventing catastrophic failure – the aviation industry has used it a lot. But catastrophy can also arise from acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infection. As we now know too well. Reason said while speaking about the model in an interview in Australia in 2005 …

…when you build defences against known hazards, you try to do the best you can but you build them in layers, but they’re never perfect. They’re like Emmenthal, they’re like Swiss cheese, they’ve got holes in. And so you can have several layers of cheese.

and

It’s like Sod or Murphy and the malign furies with the knitting needle trying to find the way through, and very rarely they do, but of course the holes opening and shutting and moving around, they’re not actually like Swiss cheese, and they’re being opened or shut by people at the sharp end who maybe making errors or by designers who fail to anticipate this particular trajectory of accident.

Absent-mindedness/Risk Management [2]

I also found it interesting that Prof Reason noted..

he had in his head these two notions: the biological or medical metaphor of pathogens, and the central role played by defences, barriers, controls and safeguards (analogous to the body’s auto-immune system)

The contribution of latent human failures to the breakdown of complex systems [1]

Leadership pressure to “get back to normal” or “live with the virus”

Something else noted by Reason, which I think we’ve seen a lot of, is the impact of leadership pressure (he highlights this in terms of management [1]) as a cause of big failures or aligned holes. Pressures that include needing to meet deadlines and to cut costs. In the case of COVID-19, I’d argue a driving pressure was to get back to making profits and to restore individual freedoms at the expense of societal safety and protecting those who made our current lives possible; our parents. Wherever restrictions were dropped while lots of cases still circulated (I don’t know where the percentage came from that suggested a level of safety at which opening was fine, but it was far to open to variability and interpretation), a surge was sure to follow. It usually only took a holiday or a seasonal change or life as usual to fan those embers into another bushfire (aka “Wave”)

One early COVID-19 failure was the inability to accept that it was the pandemic itself that could create economic hardship through a range of its impacts on our communities. When not reined in, it kept doing so. This failure was fuelled by a narrative that the required (shorter period of) harsher restrictions to contain pandemic virus transmission was unachievable because it would cause too much harm. Instead, we have watched considerable longer-term harm befall many regions and region that underwent the short-term pain, start bouncing back to a border restricted life-as-usual.

If 2020 taught us anything, it was that we were capable of a lot more than we knew. We could even eliminate transmission of an efficiently transmitting respiratory virus – something I didn’t think we could do up until this year.

My first view of Swiss cheese related to COVID-19

I first saw a version of this via @sketchplanator on Twitter sometime around October 4th (their image also links to a different version for the Cleveland Clinic, below).

From a PDF entitled RETURN TO WORK AMID COVID-19: A Cleveland Clinic Guide for Healthcare Providers (date of original publication not listed but view the relevant webpage here).

I loved this version but it felt like it missed some specifics that would be useful to add for a broader understanding of what the public could do, and should expect to have done, to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

I tend to overload my own graphics and was conscious of that habit, but still thought more would be better. So I drew up my own version and tweeted it out.

My first version

Version 1.0. This was originally posted to Twitter 12OCT2020, but I think I must have deleted that Tweet when replacing with a new version that didn’t have the typo in “testing”

I was sure I’d missed important bits out. And of course, the first version had a typo. Evolution ensued.

I next went to my wife and to specific people (thanks Jody!) and to Twitter as a whole, seeking thoughts and advice (which I sometimes did take, and sometimes didn’t). That can be a…hard process sometimes. But very worthwhile.

Version 1.2 changed the legend language to a less negative tone – thanks to Dr. Jody Lanard (@EIDGeek)

The red arrow was enhanced to highlight that when the holes (failings in any given layer/intervention) aligned, the virus could possibly get through multiple defences – so the more layers the merrier. And the tone of the text under the cheese was flipped from negative to positive.

Prof Reason further described the many holes…

though unlike in the cheese, these holes are continually opening, shutting, and shifting their location.

Human error: models and management[3]

Version 2 added a layer

October 15th saw a vaccine slice and combined contact tracing with fast and sensitive testing as well as hand and surface cleaning.

One of the freed-up layers was used to introduce isolation and quarantine and a new government Comms and financial support slice. This layer should include education in its messaging, to make sure everyone is on the same page in understanding what’s happening and why.

Government support should include the measures necessary to support workers who have to be away from work to prevent spread and who will thus lose vital income. It also includes support for those paying and collecting (to prevent eviction or rises) rent and support for business.

The suggestion was raised that there be a break glass “lockdown” button. It wasn’t added then but see version 4 below).

Version 3

October 24th saw the third version emerge. It’s arguably greatest additional the misinformation mouse” – a symbol of the erosion caused by niggly sowers of lies or simply non-expert opinion they feel must be shared with or shouted at the world. The unfortunate consequence is that these “mice” while being completely wrong, provide often a sort of comforting wrongness that rings true for those who are simply overwhelmed by the scope and complexity of a pandemic’s many facets.

These poisonous pests can undermine actions needed to save lives and protect health and livelihoods. They are not your friends. In some instances, those views are held by national leaders and the consequences are many more preventable deaths than might otherwise have been attributed to the less influential but usually louder individuals or groups.

Version 3 also added two more slices including limiting time in cross plus the need for ventilation, preferring outdoors to indoors and the introduction of air filtration; all to combat an aerosol-borne virus. It also added the need to stay home if sick to the physical distancing slice.

And thanks to the University of Queensland crew, who had already adapted a version for internal communication with students, I added their rough groupings of personal and shared responsibilities.

Concept not dogma

As with all aspects of this infographic, the groupings are not a mandate (there is overlap between layers and groups) just as the layers are not in a specific order of importance nor are the number of holes representative of the degree of dodginess of any given layer.

The overall idea is to convey a concept. Which it seems to have succeeded in doing.

Version 4

This is newly made for this blog – it includes a layer called border controls – because, without this, it’s almost impossible to imagine seriously getting a pandemic under meaningful and long-lasting control in a given region – if that’s your aim.

We’ve seen the world over that when borders are open there is a constant incoming source of new virus (including novel variants which create further headlines and fear) and it, along with the clusters they trigger, can easily overwhelm contact tracing and laboratory testing capacity. Once those have gone under, it’s the wild west of transmission.

What worked well for Australia and New Zealand?

If I was pushed to create a personal (this is my opinion), ranked, Top 10 of what was needed to prevent the spread of this or any future – perhaps more severe – respiratory virus pathogen, then my current list would include the need for:

  1. Early communication
  2. Regular communication (look to Victoria, Australia for its example of daily loooong briefings)
  3. Authentic communication (look to Victoria & Queensland)
  4. Anti-misinformation communication – flexible, nimble, animated and relatable
  5. External border controls
  6. Internal border controls
  7. Lockdowns (adequately financially supported and with good mental health support as well as constant reminders to see to normal health issues – cancers, heart disease, you name it)
  8. Testing capacity must meet turnaround times of <48 hours and have in place additional surge capacity
  9. Contact tracing
  10. Quarantine and isolation that is backed up by public health direction supported by law (protocols should be in place before they’re needed)

Making the cheese accessible to all

Apart from tweeting the image and it being picked up by media all over the world, I quickly placed the image (.png format) and an editable vector graphic (.svg format) version of it onto my Figshare page – https://figshare.com/articles/figure/The_Swiss_Cheese_Respiratory_Virus_Defence/13082618. This page includes a CC BY 4.0 open-access license which lets you share and adapt the image and only asks for credit for the source and an indication of any changes you make. [4] Thanks to a number of people – but especially Dr Prital Patel – for creating over two dozen different language variants that you can grab and share among your own communities fro that site.

Plus a graphical/icon version and a mug-sized version in case you want to make you own version to have in the office (see my how-to on Twitter, if the Redbubble mug doesn’t do it for you).

Merch? Ian! You cheese shill!

The image is also available on my newly created Redbubble store [5] placed onto a bunch of different items you can buy if you are so inclined.

Any after-tax profits (the price of each item includes a 10% profit) will be donated to a charity to be decided by a Twitter poll in 2021. I’m not in this to make any personal profit.

So that’s it – probably what I’ll end up being best known for in 2020 – a stack of cheese!

It’s been amazing watching this one image take off and help people understand the complexities of preventing respiratory virus transmission and disease.

References

  1. The contribution of latent human failures to the breakdown of complex systems
    https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.1990.0090
  2. Absent-mindedness/Risk Management
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/absent-mindednessrisk-management/3452526
  3. Human error: models and management
    https://www.bmj.com/content/320/7237/768
  4. The Swiss Cheese Respiratory Virus Defence
    https://figshare.com/articles/figure/The_Swiss_Cheese_Respiratory_Virus_Defence/1308261
  5. Swiss Cheese Respiratory Virus Pandemic Defence by VirolDownUnder
    https://www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/65034354

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Government

Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine

Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

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Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Harvard Medical School professor who refused to get a COVID-19 vaccine has been terminated, according to documents reviewed by The Epoch Times.

Martin Kulldorff, epidemiologist and statistician, at his home in Ashford, Conn., on Feb. 11, 2022. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

Martin Kulldorff, an epidemiologist, was fired by Mass General Brigham in November 2021 over noncompliance with the hospital’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate after his requests for exemptions from the mandate were denied, according to one document. Mr. Kulldorff was also placed on leave by Harvard Medical School (HMS) because his appointment as professor of medicine there “depends upon” holding a position at the hospital, another document stated.

Mr. Kulldorff asked HMS in late 2023 how he could return to his position and was told he was being fired.

You would need to hold an eligible appointment with a Harvard-affiliated institution for your HMS academic appointment to continue,” Dr. Grace Huang, dean for faculty affairs, told the epidemiologist and biostatistician.

She said the lack of an appointment, combined with college rules that cap leaves of absence at two years, meant he was being terminated.

Mr. Kulldorff disclosed the firing for the first time this month.

“While I can’t comment on the specifics due to employment confidentiality protections that preclude us from doing so, I can confirm that his employment agreement was terminated November 10, 2021,” a spokesperson for Brigham and Women’s Hospital told The Epoch Times via email.

Mass General Brigham granted just 234 exemption requests out of 2,402 received, according to court filings in an ongoing case that alleges discrimination.

The hospital said previously, “We received a number of exemption requests, and each request was carefully considered by a knowledgeable team of reviewers.

A lot of other people received exemptions, but I did not,” Mr. Kulldorff told The Epoch Times.

Mr. Kulldorff was originally hired by HMS but switched departments in 2015 to work at the Department of Medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, which is part of Mass General Brigham and affiliated with HMS.

Harvard Medical School has affiliation agreements with several Boston hospitals which it neither owns nor operationally controls,” an HMS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email. “Hospital-based faculty, such as Mr. Kulldorff, are employed by one of the affiliates, not by HMS, and require an active hospital appointment to maintain an academic appointment at Harvard Medical School.”

HMS confirmed that some faculty, who are tenured or on the tenure track, do not require hospital appointments.

Natural Immunity

Before the COVID-19 vaccines became available, Mr. Kulldorff contracted COVID-19. He was hospitalized but eventually recovered.

That gave him a form of protection known as natural immunity. According to a number of studies, including papers from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, natural immunity is better than the protection bestowed by vaccines.

Other studies have found that people with natural immunity face a higher risk of problems after vaccination.

Mr. Kulldorff expressed his concerns about receiving a vaccine in his request for a medical exemption, pointing out a lack of data for vaccinating people who suffer from the same issue he does.

I already had superior infection-acquired immunity; and it was risky to vaccinate me without proper efficacy and safety studies on patients with my type of immune deficiency,” Mr. Kulldorff wrote in an essay.

In his request for a religious exemption, he highlighted an Israel study that was among the first to compare protection after infection to protection after vaccination. Researchers found that the vaccinated had less protection than the naturally immune.

“Having had COVID disease, I have stronger longer lasting immunity than those vaccinated (Gazit et al). Lacking scientific rationale, vaccine mandates are religious dogma, and I request a religious exemption from COVID vaccination,” he wrote.

Both requests were denied.

Mr. Kulldorff is still unvaccinated.

“I had COVID. I had it badly. So I have infection-acquired immunity. So I don’t need the vaccine,” he told The Epoch Times.

Dissenting Voice

Mr. Kulldorff has been a prominent dissenting voice during the COVID-19 pandemic, countering messaging from the government and many doctors that the COVID-19 vaccines were needed, regardless of prior infection.

He spoke out in an op-ed in April 2021, for instance, against requiring people to provide proof of vaccination to attend shows, go to school, and visit restaurants.

The idea that everybody needs to be vaccinated is as scientifically baseless as the idea that nobody does. Covid vaccines are essential for older, high-risk people and their caretakers and advisable for many others. But those who’ve been infected are already immune,” he wrote at the time.

Mr. Kulldorff later co-authored the Great Barrington Declaration, which called for focused protection of people at high risk while removing restrictions for younger, healthy people.

Harsh restrictions such as school closures “will cause irreparable damage” if not lifted, the declaration stated.

The declaration drew criticism from Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Rochelle Walensky, who became the head of the CDC, among others.

In a competing document, Dr. Walensky and others said that “relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed” and that “uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity(3) and mortality across the whole population.”

“Those who are pushing these vaccine mandates and vaccine passports—vaccine fanatics, I would call them—to me they have done much more damage during this one year than the anti-vaxxers have done in two decades,” Mr. Kulldorff later said in an EpochTV interview. “I would even say that these vaccine fanatics, they are the biggest anti-vaxxers that we have right now. They’re doing so much more damage to vaccine confidence than anybody else.

Surveys indicate that people have less trust now in the CDC and other health institutions than before the pandemic, and data from the CDC and elsewhere show that fewer people are receiving the new COVID-19 vaccines and other shots.

Support

The disclosure that Mr. Kulldorff was fired drew criticism of Harvard and support for Mr. Kulldorff.

The termination “is a massive and incomprehensible injustice,” Dr. Aaron Kheriaty, an ethics expert who was fired from the University of California–Irvine School of Medicine for not getting a COVID-19 vaccine because he had natural immunity, said on X.

The academy is full of people who declined vaccines—mostly with dubious exemptions—and yet Harvard fires the one professor who happens to speak out against government policies.” Dr. Vinay Prasad, an epidemiologist at the University of California–San Francisco, wrote in a blog post. “It looks like Harvard has weaponized its policies and selectively enforces them.”

A petition to reinstate Mr. Kulldorff has garnered more than 1,800 signatures.

Some other doctors said the decision to let Mr. Kulldorff go was correct.

“Actions have consequence,” Dr. Alastair McAlpine, a Canadian doctor, wrote on X. He said Mr. Kulldorff had “publicly undermine[d] public health.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 21:00

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International

“Extreme Events”: US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In “Large Excess Over Trend”

"Extreme Events": US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In "Large Excess Over Trend"

Cancer deaths in the United States spiked in 2021…

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"Extreme Events": US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In "Large Excess Over Trend"

Cancer deaths in the United States spiked in 2021 and 2022 among 15-44 year-olds "in large excess over trend," marking jumps of 5.6% and 7.9% respectively vs. a rise of 1.7% in 2020, according to a new preprint study from deep-dive research firm, Phinance Technologies.

Algeria, Carlos et. al "US -Death Trends for Neoplasms ICD codes: C00-D48, Ages 15-44", ResearchGate, March. 2024 P. 7

Extreme Events

The report, which relies on data from the CDC, paints a troubling picture.

"We show a rise in excess mortality from neoplasms reported as underlying cause of death, which started in 2020 (1.7%) and accelerated substantially in 2021 (5.6%) and 2022 (7.9%). The increase in excess mortality in both 2021 (Z-score of 11.8) and 2022 (Z-score of 16.5) are highly statistically significant (extreme events)," according to the authors.

That said, co-author, David Wiseman, PhD (who has 86 publications to his name), leaves the cause an open question - suggesting it could either be a "novel phenomenon," Covid-19, or the Covid-19 vaccine.

"The results indicate that from 2021 a novel phenomenon leading to increased neoplasm deaths appears to be present in individuals aged 15 to 44 in the US," reads the report.

The authors suggest that the cause may be the result of "an unexpected rise in the incidence of rapidly growing fatal cancers," and/or "a reduction in survival in existing cancer cases."

They also address the possibility that "access to utilization of cancer screening and treatment" may be a factor - the notion that pandemic-era lockdowns resulted in fewer visits to the doctor. Also noted is that "Cancers tend to be slowly-developing diseases with remarkably stable death rates and only small variations over time," which makes "any temporal association between a possible explanatory factor (such as COVID-19, the novel COVID-19 vaccines, or other factor(s)) difficult to establish."

That said, a ZeroHedge review of the CDC data reveals that it does not provide information on duration of illness prior to death - so while it's not mentioned in the preprint, it can't rule out so-called 'turbo cancers' - reportedly rapidly developing cancers, the existence of which has been largely anecdotal (and widely refuted by the usual suspects).

While the Phinance report is extremely careful not to draw conclusions, researcher "Ethical Skeptic" kicked the barn door open in a Thursday post on X - showing a strong correlation between "cancer incidence & mortality" coinciding with the rollout of the Covid mRNA vaccine.

Phinance principal Ed Dowd commented on the post, noting that "Cancer is suddenly an accelerating growth industry!"

Continued:

Bottom line - hard data is showing alarming trends, which the CDC and other agencies have a requirement to explore and answer truthfully - and people are asking #WhereIsTheCDC.

We aren't holding our breath.

Wiseman, meanwhile, points out that Pfizer and several other companies are making "significant investments in cancer drugs, post COVID."

Phinance

We've featured several of Phinance's self-funded deep dives into pandemic data that nobody else is doing. If you'd like to support them, click here.

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 16:55

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Government

“I Can’t Even Save”: Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

"I Can’t Even Save": Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

While Joe Biden insists that Americans are doing great…

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"I Can't Even Save": Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

While Joe Biden insists that Americans are doing great - suggesting in his State of the Union Address last week that "our economy is the envy of the world," Americans are being absolutely crushed by inflation (which the Biden admin blames on 'shrinkflation' and 'corporate greed'), and of course - crippling debt.

The signs are obvious. Last week we noted that banks' charge-offs are accelerating, and are now above pre-pandemic levels.

...and leading this increase are credit card loans - with delinquencies that haven't been this high since Q3 2011.

On top of that, while credit cards and nonfarm, nonresidential commercial real estate loans drove the quarterly increase in the noncurrent rate, residential mortgages drove the quarterly increase in the share of loans 30-89 days past due.

And while Biden and crew can spin all they want, an average of polls from RealClear Politics shows that just 40% of people approve of Biden's handling of the economy.

Crushed

On Friday, Bloomberg dug deeper into the effects of Biden's "envious" economy on Americans - specifically, how massive debt loads (credit cards and auto loans especially) are absolutely crushing people.

Two years after the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to tame prices, delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans are the highest in more than a decade. For the first time on record, interest payments on those and other non-mortgage debts are as big a financial burden for US households as mortgage interest payments.

According to the report, this presents a difficult reality for millions of consumers who drive the US economy - "The era of high borrowing costs — however necessary to slow price increases — has a sting of its own that many families may feel for years to come, especially the ones that haven’t locked in cheap home loans."

The Fed, meanwhile, doesn't appear poised to cut rates until later this year.

According to a February paper from IMF and Harvard, the recent high cost of borrowing - something which isn't reflected in inflation figures, is at the heart of lackluster consumer sentiment despite inflation having moderated and a job market which has recovered (thanks to job gains almost entirely enjoyed by immigrants).

In short, the debt burden has made life under President Biden a constant struggle throughout America.

"I’m making the most money I've ever made, and I’m still living paycheck to paycheck," 40-year-old Denver resident Nikki Cimino told Bloomberg. Cimino is carrying a monthly mortgage of $1,650, and has $4,000 in credit card debt following a 2020 divorce.

Nikki CiminoPhotographer: Rachel Woolf/Bloomberg

"There's this wild disconnect between what people are experiencing and what economists are experiencing."

What's more, according to Wells Fargo, families have taken on debt at a comparatively fast rate - no doubt to sustain the same lifestyle as low rates and pandemic-era stimmies provided. In fact, it only took four years for households to set a record new debt level after paying down borrowings in 2021 when interest rates were near zero. 

Meanwhile, that increased debt load is exacerbated by credit card interest rates that have climbed to a record 22%, according to the Fed.

[P]art of the reason some Americans were able to take on a substantial load of non-mortgage debt is because they’d locked in home loans at ultra-low rates, leaving room on their balance sheets for other types of borrowing. The effective rate of interest on US mortgage debt was just 3.8% at the end of last year.

Yet the loans and interest payments can be a significant strain that shapes families’ spending choices. -Bloomberg

And of course, the highest-interest debt (credit cards) is hurting lower-income households the most, as tends to be the case.

The lowest earners also understandably had the biggest increase in credit card delinquencies.

"Many consumers are levered to the hilt — maxed out on debt and barely keeping their heads above water," Allan Schweitzer, a portfolio manager at credit-focused investment firm Beach Point Capital Management told Bloomberg. "They can dog paddle, if you will, but any uptick in unemployment or worsening of the economy could drive a pretty significant spike in defaults."

"We had more money when Trump was president," said Denise Nierzwicki, 69. She and her 72-year-old husband Paul have around $20,000 in debt spread across multiple cards - all of which have interest rates above 20%.

Denise and Paul Nierzwicki blame Biden for what they see as a gloomy economy and plan to vote for the Republican candidate in November.
Photographer: Jon Cherry/Bloomberg

During the pandemic, Denise lost her job and a business deal for a bar they owned in their hometown of Lexington, Kentucky. While they applied for Social Security to ease the pain, Denise is now working 50 hours a week at a restaurant. Despite this, they're barely scraping enough money together to service their debt.

The couple blames Biden for what they see as a gloomy economy and plans to vote for the Republican candidate in November. Denise routinely voted for Democrats up until about 2010, when she grew dissatisfied with Barack Obama’s economic stances, she said. Now, she supports Donald Trump because he lowered taxes and because of his policies on immigration. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile there's student loans - which are not able to be discharged in bankruptcy.

"I can't even save, I don't have a savings account," said 29-year-old in Columbus, Ohio resident Brittany Walling - who has around $80,000 in federal student loans, $20,000 in private debt from her undergraduate and graduate degrees, and $6,000 in credit card debt she accumulated over a six-month stretch in 2022 while she was unemployed.

"I just know that a lot of people are struggling, and things need to change," she told the outlet.

The only silver lining of note, according to Bloomberg, is that broad wage gains resulting in large paychecks has made it easier for people to throw money at credit card bills.

Yet, according to Wells Fargo economist Shannon Grein, "As rates rose in 2023, we avoided a slowdown due to spending that was very much tied to easy access to credit ... Now, credit has become harder to come by and more expensive."

According to Grein, the change has posed "a significant headwind to consumption."

Then there's the election

"Maybe the Fed is done hiking, but as long as rates stay on hold, you still have a passive tightening effect flowing down to the consumer and being exerted on the economy," she continued. "Those household dynamics are going to be a factor in the election this year."

Meanwhile, swing-state voters in a February Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll said they trust Trump more than Biden on interest rates and personal debt.

Reverberations

These 'headwinds' have M3 Partners' Moshin Meghji concerned.

"Any tightening there immediately hits the top line of companies," he said, noting that for heavily indebted companies that took on debt during years of easy borrowing, "there's no easy fix."

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 18:00

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