Connect with us


The Soros Of Silicon Valley: Reid Hoffman’s Millions For Democrat Activism

The Soros Of Silicon Valley: Reid Hoffman’s Millions For Democrat Activism

Authored by Hayden Ludwig via Restoration of America,




The Soros Of Silicon Valley: Reid Hoffman's Millions For Democrat Activism

Authored by Hayden Ludwig via Restoration of America,

There’s no shortage of leftist mega-donors for funding America’s “progressive” revolution. Meet the newest billionaire backing it: Reid Hoffman, whose campaign to destroy Donald Trump is matched only by the scale of his #MeToo hypocrisy.

His is hardly a household name. Yet Reid Hoffman, best known for co-founding the professional networking site LinkedIn, has rapidly become one of the Left’s top patrons of political activism to rival George Soros, Bill Gates, and eBay’s Pierre Omidyar. Since 2016, this mega-donor has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Democratic campaigns, leftist advocacy groups, and efforts to indict President Trump, with much more to come in 2024.

And that’s to say nothing of his ties to notorious pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

Hoffman is no “moderate” content with defeating the former president. His primary funding vehicle, Investing in US, exists to spur “massive voter turnout” for Democrats to defeat the Republican Party’s—not Donald Trump’s—“white nationalist fascism,” likening all conservatives to “authoritarian criminals such as Hugo Chavez and Vladimir Putin . . . [for] actively undermining the legitimacy of our free press, our courts, our elections, and our scientific institutions.”

All Republicans, Hoffman’s group alleges, “have systematically and asymmetrically engaged in dirty tricks and brutal hardball to seize and hold power”—so he’s committed a fortune to wiping them out at the polls, meddling in the 2024 Republican primary, and playing dirty himself.

Dot Com Fortune

Like so many in Silicon Valley, Reid Hoffman’s career started in 1994 with Apple Computer, working on the company’s then-cutting edge online subscription service, eWorld, which offered users email, news, and internet chat rooms (later purchased by America Online). Three years later, Hoffman launched an online dating site——which, though it flopped, got him a director position with a new start-up: PayPal, which launched in 1999 under the leadership of Elon Musk, Peter Thiel as CEO, and Hoffman as executive vice president responsible for external relationships and business development. (Notably, Thiel and Hoffman’s friendship broke down years later over their differing views of Donald Trump.)

Around the same time PayPal was acquired in 2002 by Pierre Omidyar’s rising online giant, eBay, Hoffman launched his own e-company (with capital from Thiel and venture capital firm Greylock Partners): San Francisco-based LinkedIn, today the top social networking site for professionals with some 774 million members across 200 countries. But it was LinkedIn’s 2011 IPO that made Hoffman a billionaire (net worth: $2.2 billion as of writing); five years later, Microsoft purchased the company for $26.2 billion and added Hoffman to its board of directors.

Since 2009, Hoffman’s been an active partner at Greylock, one of the oldest venture capital firms in America with a reported $3.5 billion under management focused on tech (Dropbox), crypto software (Coinbase), and consumer services (AirBnB).

One of Hoffman’s most famous investments was Facebook (now Meta), which he helped launch in 2004 after arranging a meeting between Mark Zuckerberg and Peter Thiel, who also contributed $500,000 to the fledgling social media company. Hoffman reportedly mentored the younger Zuckerberg; today he sits on the board of the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, which funnels money from its $600 million endowment to California university medical research centers.

Across this entire period, Hoffman wasn’t known as a prolific donor in political circles, gifting just $288,000 from 2002 to 2015 to then-President Barack Obama, Sen. Cory Booker (NJ), and multiple state Democratic parties.

Yet from 2012 to 2014 he dumped $2 million into two committees: Priorities USA Action, a top Democratic PAC that spent $28 million in the 2022 midterms, and Mayday PAC, founded by leftist campaign finance “reformer” Lawrence Lessig to elect Democrats who promised to be “tough” on money-in-politics. Lessig, who briefly ran for the Democratic nomination in 2015, also sits on the advisory board of the Sunlight Foundation, which coined the term “dark money” in 2010 to bash conservative political spending.

Compared with mega-donors like Tom Steyer, that’s a pittance. Then Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election—and everything changed.

Trump Derangement Syndrome

In September 2016, Hoffman was having a laugh at Trump’s prospects against Clinton. “Donald Trump [has] turned the Republican primary debates into an endless Friars Club Roast,” Hoffman wrote in his personal blog on the website Medium, which to that point had been confined to pontificating about business strategy. That post launched “Trumped Up Cards: The World’s Biggest Deck,” a multiplayer card game “where players need really big hands to win”—sold for $20.16. Hoffman was cheerful that Clinton would trounce the political upstart, writing:

Trumped Up Cards are for free speech advocates, fans of due process and equal protection, immigrants yearning to breathe free, and native-born patriots who believe our diversity and inclusiveness make us stronger (but who draw the line at Russian hackers).

At the same time, Hoffman pledged to donate $5 million to veterans groups if Trump released his tax returns before the first October presidential debate. “Because of how often Donald Trump’s decisions as president could potentially impact his business interests,” Hoffman wrote, “it has in fact never been more necessary for a candidate to release tax returns than it is for him.”

Less than one month later, Hoffman was worried about Trump’s prospects in the coming election. “This Election Day: What’s the worst that could happen?” he posted, with a political cartoon warning of the fallout from a Trump victory: A reporter silenced, protesters quashed, a loaded gun, drowning polar bears, Mexico sealed off by a massive wall, Wall Street in freefall, and women’s “glass ceiling” turned into an impenetrable roof. 

By Halloween, Hoffman was imagining Trump dressed up as a witch (“because he conjures conspiracy theories to undermine society”), a werewolf (“because of his late-night howling on Twitter”), and other monsters.

Cartoons posted on Hoffman’s blog page

Then the unthinkable sent Hoffman—and the rest of Silicon Valley—reeling. In December, Hoffman pledged to “defend” the Constitution by contributing $10 from every sale of Trumped Up Cards—now the symbol of the Left’s “resistance”—to the ACLU to stop Republicans from “marginaliz[ing] religious freedom, ethnic minorities, and women.”

It only escalated from there, with Hoffman declaring ahead of the 2020 election that “I’ve been a Never Trumper” since 2015, labeling Trump “the disease president” for “choking like a dog in the face of a pandemic he still has no idea how to fight,” warning his reelection would only bring “more death,” and boasting after Election Day that “Trump is never going to get tired of losing this election.”

In late 2017, the New York Times identified Hoffman as a key donor to Indivisible, the radical activist group that led the far Left’s takeover of the Democratic Party in order to battle Trump and move towards single-payer healthcare and “free” college tuition. Indivisible is one of the “resistance groups” mentioned in Time’s infamous 2021 article, “The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election.”

That proved only the beginning. From 2017 to 2023, Hoffman funneled close to $43 million into Democratic political campaigns and super PACs, aiming to flip the House and Senate in the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections.

That includes regular checks to the Democratic National Committee and its Senate and House arms. Hoffman is also one of just 13 donors behind the Democratic Grassroots Victory Fund, a committee formed in October 2017 to boost “progressive” fundraising using a loophole that allows the PAC to “eviscerate campaign contribution limits,” in the opinion of the left-leaning group Issue One. He’s also a significant donor to the Mainstream Democrats PAC, which opposes “far-left organizations” attempting a “’hostile takeover’ of the Democratic Party.”

At $7.4 million, Hoffman is a top donor to the Republican Accountability PAC, a committee run by rabid NeverTrumper (and darling of the D.C. Left) Sarah Longwell, who doubles as publisher of the bitter neocon-liberal website the Bulwark. In the 2022 midterms, the Republican Accountability PAC spent $13 million attempting to elect Democrats—including Sen. Raphael Warnock (GA) and former Rep. Tim Ryan (OH)—and defeat Republicans in key Senate races: Sen. J.D. Vance in Ohio, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, and Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. Now the PAC is gearing up to attack conservatives in 2024 by “elevat[ing] the voices of Trump voters who agree that it is time for the party to move on.”

Hoffman also contributes regularly to DigiDems, which “supports the most competitive House, Senate, and coordinated campaigns” in 34 states. The Virginia Democratic Party, which in 2019 seized control of the state legislature and governor’s mansion for the first time in decades, credits DigiDems for electing 40 Democrats there.

The Rise of “Investing in US”

But Hoffman’s most influential contribution to the Left’s war machine was birthed shortly after the 2016 election: A new funding vehicle for directing tens of millions of dollars into leftist groups battling the Republican Party. He called it “Investing in US.”

“The idea behind Investing in US was to bring entrepreneurs and investors to join the resistance in fighting for the American dream” against “corruption, white nationalism, and mass deceit,” wrote Dmitri Mehlhorn, Hoffman’s top lieutenant and political advisor responsible for the project.

Mehlhorn, who graduated Yale Law School alongside such luminaries as future New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (D) and Stacey Abrams, is on the (entirely non-black) board of All Americans Vote, a get-out-the-vote group targeting black voters.

Mehlhorn is also a board member for the Hoffman-funded group Integrity First for America, which litigates against “the growing threat of white nationalism.” In 2020, the Daily Caller revealed that Integrity First for America paid the legal bills of Fusion GPS (through its holding company, Bean LLC), the firm behind the fake Russian dossier, thanks to a $1 million pledge from Hoffman.

In early 2017, Mehlhorn drafted a 10-page prospectus for Silicon Valley donors on how to defeat the Trump agenda and its “existential threat” to America—featuring flow charts on the “fascist playbook,” suppressing the “Neo-Nazi” vote, and Democrat get-out-the-vote and messaging strategies. The group planned to fund voter engagement, Democrat recruitment groups, campaign data platforms, and lawsuits against the Trump administration.

But instead of using a nonprofit or committee—which must file federal disclosure forms—Investing in US would be structured as “a Silicon Valley seed fund,” exchanging tax exemption for total donor anonymity. All that’s known of the group’s structure is its address: A residence (presumably Mehlhorn’s) in Vienna, Virginia. Many wealthy donors, from Mark Zuckerberg to John Arnold, use a similar “dark money” model to avoid public scrutiny.

Key groups funded by Investing in US

Investing In US tagged a dozen more key “resistance” grantees, all of which reveal the vast scale of the modern Left’s political machine:

  • Run for Something: Identifies and trains new Democrats running for political office—so long as they pledge to support single-payer healthcare, open borders, the Green New Deal, abortion-up-to-birth, and strict gun control laws.
  • ACRONYM: Develops voter registration platforms and targeted ads to turn out tens of thousands of Democrats in 15 key states, electing dozens of Democrats since 2018. One of its clients is Eric Holder’s gerrymandering group, the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. In 2019, ACRONYM launched Shadow, Inc., whose app catastrophically malfunctioned during the 2020 Iowa Democratic Party caucus to the Left’s embarrassment.
  • Forward Majority: An arm of the Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC, redirecting some $60 million to other left-wing committees in the 2020 cycle to defeat Republicans in key Senate races.
  • WokeVote: Coordinates college voter registration and get-out-the-vote drives among “historically disengaged voters of color.”
  • CrowdPAC: A campaign fundraising platform boasting 4 million users and 360,000 donors—and explicitly off-limits to Republican candidates.
  • New Politics: Trains Democrats with a military background to seek public office, many of them in marginal districts such as Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s most hotly contested congressional district (VA–07).
  • Hispanic Federation: Runs leftist political outreach to Latinos targeting public education, immigration, and voter mobilization.
  • Targets minority groups for mass voter registration drive. In 2020, claims it made 650 million voter contacts, particularly in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and other swing states; in 2021, it demanded companies condemn or boycott Georgia if state Republicans passed their election integrity bill adding voter ID requirements to mail-in ballots.
  • PushBlack: “Black liberation” and voter registration group formerly known as Million Hoodies Movement for Justice.
  • The Arena: Recruits campaign staff (2,400 to date) for Democrats running for state legislative offices.
  • Higher Ground Labs: “Venture fund and ecosystem builder” for seeding new leftist groups (60 to date). One such organization is Mobilize, a volunteer recruitment group that serviced 1,000 Democratic campaigns in 2022; it brags that campaigns which used Mobilize earned 3.6 percent more vote share than those that didn’t.
  • New Media Ventures: Provides seed funding for new activist groups as a front for the Tides Foundation’s 501(c)(4) arm. New Media Ventures is one of the Democracy Alliance’s recommended “investments,” so it receives regular funding from the Left’s biggest bankrollers.

Paint the South Blue

Hoffman’s first big target was Virginia’s November 2017 election, when the governor’s mansion and all 100 House of Delegates seats were on the ballot. Hoffman, focusing on the latter, contributed $300,000 to Win Virginia in September—nearly a quarter of its $1.3 million budget—which bundled funds to dozens of Democrats running for House seats.

Politico identified Win Virginia as “one of the largest spenders on the House of Delegates races” and Hoffman as “by far its largest donor.” Dmitri Mehlhorn reportedly “took a hands-on role” in shaping the group’s strategy by focusing on the districts that voted for Hillary Clinton a year prior.

Come November, Democrats picked up 15 House seats, reducing the Republican majority from a solid 66–34 to a tiny 51–49 and setting up a Democrat takeover in 2019. Win Virginia funded the Democrat in 14 of these races—all 15, if you count the $123,000 it gave to another group, the Run Everywhere Virginia PAC, the former’s top recipient in 2017.

It’s also worth sketching out Win Virginia’s most powerful board member: Real estate mogul Albert Dwoskin. Dwoskin is a Clinton Foundation donor and “resistance” bankroller who chaired the board of the Democratic data firm Catalist and helped found the Democracy Alliance, which convenes the Left’s biggest mega-donors to coordinate their political spending. He’s also on the board of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), one of the groups suing to keep Trump off the 2024 ballot in 9 states.

At the same time, Investing in US saw an opportunity to flip Alabama’s Senate seat—vacated in January by Jeff Sessions’ appointment as President Trump’s attorney general—in an off-year special election, and took it.

They called it “Project Birmingham,” a scheme by American Emergent Technologies (AET)—which received $750,000 from Investing in US—to run a social media disinformation campaign against Republican nominee Roy Moore using “secret” methods, the New York Times later argued, pioneered by Russia to tip the 2016 election in Trump’s favor. AET itself is run by a former Obama administration official and Google engineer; at least one Investing in US employee also worked on the project.

AET fabricated at least 5 “conservative” Facebook pages to depress Republican turnout and encourage write-in candidates. As the scheme developed, it linked the Moore campaign to thousands of Russian bot accounts which suddenly began following his Twitter account with tens of thousands of tweets, bait meant to fuel guilt-by-association attacks from the Left.

In one instance, AET’s bots smeared the reputation of a woman who accused Moore of groping her as a teenager, a story broke by the Washington Post one month before the December 2017 election. “Pro-Russia propagandists are pushing for Roy Moore to win,” cried Mother Jones, which savaged the Moore campaign for its support from “pro-Russia sites and trolls . . . battle[ing] vigorously on behalf of Roy Moore.”

Roy Moore (L) and Doug Jones (R)

Left-wing papers gleefully echoed the stern warnings of countless “experts,” including ex-CIA officials, that this was yet more evidence of the Kremlin’s ruthless war on American democracy meant to boost Trump’s “far-right” allies. Only much later and deep into the article did Mother Jones admit that the whole story was a lie.

It was too late. Democratic nominee Doug Jones narrowly defeated Moore by less than 21,000 votes—with 23,000 write-ins for someone else—in a state that voted for Trump over Clinton by 589,000 votes the year before. In 2020, Tommy Tuberville flipped Jones’ Senate seat red again by 472,000 votes.

Hoffman later apologized for and claimed ignorance of AET’s “highly disturbing” campaign, which ran on a $100,000 budget in a race that cost $51 million. What’s almost certain is that Project Birmingham would’ve been impossible without Hoffman’s money. Nor was it the last time Hoffman funded a campaign to suppress Republican voters.

In Part Two, we dive into “fake news” groups funded by Hoffman to fool conservatives into voting for Democrats—and uncover the Big Tech billionaire’s shady ties to notorious sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Read it here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/23/2024 - 17:10

Read More

Continue Reading


February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…



By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

Read More

Continue Reading


Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.



Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250

Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  


3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 

From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:


In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

Read More

Continue Reading


Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…



Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

Read More

Continue Reading