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TDR’s U.S. Stock Market Preview For The Week Of January 23, 2023
A weekly stock market preview and the data that will impact the tape. Sunday Evening Futures Futures Posted 6:30EST Weekend News And Developments American…
A weekly stock market preview and the data that will impact the tape.
Sunday Evening Futures
Futures Posted 6:30EST
Weekend News And Developments
American lawmakers on Sunday pushed the U.S. government to export M1 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine, saying that even sending a symbolic number to Kyiv would be enough to push European allies to do the same.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva fired the army commander, General Julio Cesar de Arruda, on Saturday, a source with knowledge of the matter said.
China: Hundreds of millions of Chinese people are celebrating the 2023 Lunar New Year this weekend, after Beijing in December reversed the zero-Covid policy which kept most of its population close to home during the pandemic. Market-watchers, meanwhile, are hoping for an economic reversal of fortune, as China emerges from pandemic-induced slowdowns.
COVID-19 rebound in China over the next two or three months is remote as 80% of people have been infected, a prominent government scientist said on Saturday.
Debt ceiling breached in the U.S. government as standoff in Congress awaits. A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers is preparing a plan to defuse a looming crisis over the nation’s debt ceiling by changing it from a fixed dollar amount a percentage of national economic output, the group’s top Republican said on Sunday.
DNB Asset Management materially increased investments in EV maker Tesla and Plug Power, a hydrogen fuel-cell technology company, while slashing its stake in General Motors in the fourth quarter.
French arm of the Russian state-owned RT television network said on Saturday it was shutting down after authorities used European Union sanctions to freeze its bank accounts.
Genesis: Three former employees of the company claimed they had secured millions of dollars for a new crypto hedge fund, according to correspondence viewed by CNBC.
Google employees are scrambling for answers from leadership and from colleagues as the company undergoes a massive layoff.
Iran’s currency fell to a record low against the U.S. dollar on Saturday amid the country’s increasing isolation and possible Europe Union sanctions against Tehran’s Revolutionary Guards or some of its members.
Juul Labs secured preliminary court approval of a $255 million settlement resolving claims by consumers that it deceptively marketed e-cigarettes, as the company seeks to resolve thousands of lawsuits.
Kotak Mahindra Bank on Saturday reported a 31% increase in standalone net profit for the October-December quarter, aided by a strong topline and healthy loan growth.
Nornickel has proposed slashing its annual dividend for 2022 to $1.5 billion from the $6.3 billion paid out for 2021, the economic news outlet RBC reported on Saturday, citing three sources close to the board of directors.
President Joe Biden’s White House chief of staff, Ron Klain, plans to leave his post in the coming weeks, sources familiar with the matter said on Saturday.
Russian private military contractor Wagner published a short letter to the White House asking what crime his company was accused of, after Washington announced new sanctions on the group.
Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attended a memorial service on Saturday to commemorate seven senior officials killed in a helicopter crash, a fresh blow to a nation already grieving its many war dead.
U.S. existing home sales fall most on record on a month-over-month basis.
U.S. power chip maker Wolfspeed Inc (WOLF.N) is planning to build a factory in Germany for more than 2 billion euros, Handelsblatt reported on Saturday.
Yes Bank (YESB.NS) reported a surprise 80% plunge in quarterly profit on Saturday as provisions for bad loans increased.
What The Analysts Are Saying…
“I think inflation is going to get sticky in midyear at around 4%… This transition is particularly noteworthy because inflationary pressures are now less sensitive to central bank policy action. The result could well be more sticky inflation at around double the level of central banks’ current inflation target.” — Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge
“In bonds our kryptonite is inflation. Our thesis is that peak inflation is in the rear view mirror and we suspect by mid-year or later there will be evidence the economy is really weakening and inflation is melting. A lot of tightening is still set to hit the economy at a time when it is already slowing. At this point I don’t see a reason to be bearish on bonds.” — Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine
“Sell strength on any move back toward the August highs of 4300… I just don’t want to pay an 18 P/E multiple for 0% expected earnings growth.” — Goldman Sachs trader comments on short term market strategy
“We have the technologies we need. The International Energy Agency says, for a 50% reduction [in energy-related emissions], we have all we need with proven deployment models already available for us. The next 50%, after 2030, we have the technologies that are in development. We see the pathway to improve them. We know how to get there.” — Al Gore, special U.S. envoy at Davos
Last Week’s Best & Worst Performing Assets
The Week Ahead…
Earnings reports will dominate the conversation around stocks next week with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Boeing (BA) some of the heavyweights due to report. Federal Reserve speakers will be in a blackout period ahead of the February FOMC meeting, but economic reports will still pour in.
Updates on the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, new home sales, durable goods orders, and consumer sentiment could reinforce the expectation for a recession in the U.S. and set the table for a 25-point rate increase from the Fed, instead of a 50-point hike.
Read the rest @ Seeking Alpha.
U.S. Economic Calendar
TIME (ET) | REPORT | PERIOD | MEDIAN FORECAST | PREVIOUS |
Monday, Jan. 23 | ||||
10:00 AM | Leading economic indicators | Dec. | -0.70% | -1.00% |
Tuesday, Jan. 24 | ||||
9:45 AM | S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI (flash) | Jan. | 47 | 46.2 |
9:45 AM | S&P U.S. services PMI (flash) | Jan. | 45.3 | 44.7 |
Wednesday, Jan. 25 | None scheduled | |||
Thursday, Jan. 26 | ||||
8:30 AM | Initial jobless claims | Jan. 21 | 199,000 | 190,000 |
8:30 AM | Continuing jobless claims | Jan. 14 | — | 1.65 million |
8:30 AM | Real gross domestic product, first estimate (SAAR) | Q4 | 2.80% | 3.20% |
8:30 AM | Real final sales to domestic purchasers, first estimate (SAAR) | Q4 | — | 1.50% |
8:30 AM | Trade in goods (advance) | Dec. | — | -$83.3 billion |
8:30 AM | Durable goods orders | Dec. | 2.90% | -2.10% |
8:30 AM | Core capital goods orders | Dec. | — | -0.10% |
8:30 AM | Chicago Fed national activity index | Dec. | — | N/A |
10:00 AM | New home sales (SAAR) | Dec. | 615,000 | 640,000 |
Friday, January 13 | ||||
8:30 AM | Real disposable incomes (SAAR) | Dec. | — | 3.20% |
8:30 AM | Real consumer spending (SAAR) | Dec. | — | 0.10% |
8:30 AM | PCE price index | Dec. | — | 0.10% |
8:30 AM | Core PCE price index | Dec. | 0.30% | 0.20% |
8:30 AM | PCE price index, year-over-year | Dec. | — | 5.50% |
8:30 AM | Core PCE price index, year-over-year | Dec. | 4.40% | 4.70% |
10:00 AM | UMich consumer sentiment index (late) | Jan. | 64.6 | 64.6 |
10:00 AM | UMich 1-year inflation expectations (late) | Jan. | — | 4.00% |
10:00 AM | UMich 5-year inflation expectations (late) | Jan. | — | 3.00% |
10:00 AM | Pending home sales | Dec. | -1.50% | -4.00% |
Meme Of The Week
U.S Earnings Calendar
Date | Company | Symbol | EPS Estimate |
Monday, Jan. 23 | Baker Hughes | BKR | $0.40 per share |
Bank of Hawaii | BOH | $1.42 | |
Brown & Brown | BRO | $0.46 | |
F.N.B. | FNB | $0.42 | |
Logitech International | LOGI | $1.03 | |
Synchrony Financial | SYF | $1.13 | |
Umpqua | UMPQ | $0.54 | |
Zions Bancorp | ZION | $1.66 | |
Tuesday, Jan. 24 | Agilysys | AGYS | $0.21 |
Canadian National Railway | CNI | $2.09 | |
Capital One Financial | COF | $3.86 | |
D.R. Horton | DHI | $2.24 | |
Danaher | DHR | $2.50 | |
F5 Networks | FFIV | $2.33 | |
General Electric | GE | $1.16 | |
Halliburton | HAL | $0.67 | |
Intuitive Surgical | ISRG | $1.25 | |
Invesco | IVZ | $0.36 | |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | $2.24 | |
Lockheed Martin | LMT | $7.37 | |
Microsoft | MSFT | $2.30 | |
Navient | NAVI | $0.84 | |
Old National Bancorp | ONB | $0.57 | |
PACCAR | PCAR | $2.21 | |
Raytheon Technologies | RTX | $1.25 | |
Texas Instruments | TXN | $2.03 | |
Travelers | TRV | $3.40 | |
Union Pacific | UNP | $2.79 | |
Veritex Holdings | VBTX | $0.88 | |
Verizon | VZ | $1.19 | |
WesBanco | WSBC | $0.83 | |
Western Alliance Bancorp | WAL | $2.66 | |
Wednesday, January 25 | Abbott Labs | ABT | $0.93 per share |
ASML | ASML | $4.34 | |
AT&T | T | $0.58 | |
Automatic Data Processing | ADP | $1.94 | |
Axalta Coating Systems | AXTA | $0.35 | |
Boeing | BA | $0.29 | |
Boot Barn Holdings | BOOT | $1.75 | |
Crown Castle | CCI | $1.94 | |
CSX | CSX | $0.47 | |
Ethan Allen | ETD | $0.89 | |
Flex | FLEX | $0.60 | |
Freeport-McMoRan | FCX | $0.43 | |
General Dynamics | GD | $3.54 | |
Hess | HESS | $1.60 | |
International Business Machines | IBM | $3.61 | |
Kimberly-Clark | KMB | $1.51 | |
Lam Research | LCRX | $9.94 | |
Las Vegas Sands | LVS | -$0.10 | |
Lending Club | LC | $0.22 | |
Levi Strauss | LEVI | $0.30 | |
NextEra Energy | NEE | $0.50 | |
NextEra Energy Partners | NEP | $0.49 | |
Norfolk Southern | NSC | $3.45 | |
Packaging Corp | PKG | $2.23 | |
Progressive | PGR | $1.45 | |
Raymond James | RJF | $2.28 | |
Seagate Technology | STX | $0.11 | |
ServiceNow | NOW | $2.02 | |
SL Green Realty | SLG | $1.48 | |
Steel Dynamics | STLD | $3.67 | |
Tesla | TSLA | $1.13 | |
Textron | TXT | $1.07 | |
U.S. Bancorp | USB | $1.14 | |
United Rentals | URI | $10.29 | |
West Fraser | WFG | $0.02 | |
Wolfspeed | WOLF | -$0.14 | |
Thursday, January 26 | Alaska Air | ALK | $0.91 per share |
American Airlines | AAL | $1.07 | |
Archer-Daniels-Midland | ADM | $1.65 | |
Blackstone | BX | $0.97 | |
CNX Resources | CNX | $0.62 | |
Comcast | CMCSA | $0.77 | |
Dow | DOW | $0.57 | |
Eastman Chemical | EMN | $1.25 | |
Federated Hermes | FHI | $0.73 | |
Intel | INTC | $0.20 | |
JetBlue Airways | JBLU | $0.20 | |
KLA Corporation | KLAC | $7.03 | |
L3Harris | LHX | $3.28 | |
Marsh McLennan | MMC | $1.40 | |
Mastercard | MA | $2.58 | |
McCormick | MKC | $0.86 | |
Nokia | NOK | $0.13 | |
Northrop Grumman | NOC | $6.57 | |
Nucor | NUE | $4.33 | |
Olin | OLN | $1.37 | |
Oshkosh | OSK | $1.73 | |
Rockwell Automation | ROK | $1.87 | |
SAP | SAP | $1.37 | |
Sherwin-Williams | SHW | $1.86 | |
Southwest Airlines | LUV | $0.06 | |
STMicroelectronics | STM | $1.10 | |
T. Rowe Price | TROW | $1.70 | |
Tractor Supply | TSCO | $2.35 | |
U.S. Steel | X | $0.63 | |
Valero Energy | VLO | $6.96 | |
Visa | V | $2.01 | |
Weyerhaeuser | WY | $0.18 | |
Xerox | XRX | $0.51 | |
Friday, Jan. 27 | American Express | AXP | $2.24 per share |
Booz Allen Hamilton | BAH | $1.04 | |
Charter Communications | CHTR | $8.99 | |
Chevron | CVX | $2.56 | |
Charter Communications | CHTR | $0.77 | |
Colgate-Palmolive | CL | $0.77 | |
LyondellBasell | LYB | $1.26 | |
WisdomTree | WT | $0.04 |
Past Week What’s Hot… and What’s Not
Top 12 High Short Interest Stocks
Ticker | Company | Exchange | ShortInt | Float | S/O | Industry |
PXMD | PaxMedica Inc | Nasdaq | 63.00% | 770K | 11.78M | Biotechnology & Medical Research |
CVNA | Carvana Co | NYSE | 58.01% | 93.26M | 105.95M | Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
BBBY | Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. | Nasdaq | 50.28% | 76.67M | 80.36M | Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
GROM | Grom Social Enterprises Inc | Nasdaq | 44.63% | 660K | 760K | Online Services |
BYND | Beyond Meat Inc | Nasdaq | 39.80% | 57.42M | 63.74M | Food Processing |
UPST | Upstart Holdings Inc | Nasdaq | 39.14% | 68.62M | 81.88M | Consumer Lending |
EVGO | Evgo Inc | Nasdaq | 36.71% | 67.73M | 69.36M | Utilities – Electric |
MSTR | MicroStrategy Inc | Nasdaq | 36.47% | 9.34M | 9.35M | Software & Programming |
NVAX | Novavax Inc | Nasdaq | 35.89% | 84.73M | 85.00M | Biotechnology & Medical Research |
W | Wayfair Inc | NYSE | 34.86% | 71.74M | 81.43M | Retailers – Department Stores |
BLNK | Blink Charging Co | Nasdaq | 32.33% | 40.37M | 50.86M | Utilities – Electric |
PMVP | PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc | Nasdaq | 30.57% | 31.04M | 45.67M | Biotechnology & Medical Research |
Tags: stock market preview, stock market preview January 23, 2023
The post TDR’s U.S. Stock Market Preview For The Week Of January 23, 2023 appeared first on The Dales Report.
bonds pandemic covid-19 nasdaq stocks crypto home sales cryptoUncategorized
One city held a mass passport-getting event
A New Orleans congressman organized a way for people to apply for their passports en masse.
While the number of Americans who do not have a passport has dropped steadily from more than 80% in 1990 to just over 50% now, a lack of knowledge around passport requirements still keeps a significant portion of the population away from international travel.
Over the four years that passed since the start of covid-19, passport offices have also been dealing with significant backlog due to the high numbers of people who were looking to get a passport post-pandemic.
Related: Here is why it is (still) taking forever to get a passport
To deal with these concurrent issues, the U.S. State Department recently held a mass passport-getting event in the city of New Orleans. Called the "Passport Acceptance Event," the gathering was held at a local auditorium and invited residents of Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District to complete a passport application on-site with the help of staff and government workers.
'Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required'
"Hey #LA02," Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr. (D-LA), whose office co-hosted the event alongside the city of New Orleans, wrote to his followers on Instagram (META) . "My office is providing passport services at our #PassportAcceptance event. Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required."
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The event was held on March 14 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. While it was designed for those who are already eligible for U.S. citizenship rather than as a way to help non-citizens with immigration questions, it helped those completing the application for the first time fill out forms and make sure they have the photographs and identity documents they need. The passport offices in New Orleans where one would normally have to bring already-completed forms have also been dealing with lines and would require one to book spots weeks in advance.
These are the countries with the highest-ranking passports in 2024
According to Carter Sr.'s communications team, those who submitted their passport application at the event also received expedited processing of two to three weeks (according to the State Department's website, times for regular processing are currently six to eight weeks).
While Carter Sr.'s office has not released the numbers of people who applied for a passport on March 14, photos from the event show that many took advantage of the opportunity to apply for a passport in a group setting and get expedited processing.
Every couple of months, a new ranking agency puts together a list of the most and least powerful passports in the world based on factors such as visa-free travel and opportunities for cross-border business.
In January, global citizenship and financial advisory firm Arton Capital identified United Arab Emirates as having the most powerful passport in 2024. While the United States topped the list of one such ranking in 2014, worsening relations with a number of countries as well as stricter immigration rules even as other countries have taken strides to create opportunities for investors and digital nomads caused the American passport to slip in recent years.
A UAE passport grants holders visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 180 of the world’s 198 countries (this calculation includes disputed territories such as Kosovo and Western Sahara) while Americans currently have the same access to 151 countries.
stocks pandemic covid-19 grantsUncategorized
Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy
Several major fast-food chains recently have struggled to keep restaurants open.
Competition in the fast-food space has been brutal as operators deal with inflation, consumers who are worried about the economy and their jobs and, in recent months, the falling cost of eating at home.
Add in that many fast-food chains took on more debt during the covid pandemic and that labor costs are rising, and you have a perfect storm of problems.
It's a situation where Restaurant Brands International (QSR) has suffered as much as any company.
Related: Wendy's menu drops a fan favorite item, adds something new
Three major Burger King franchise operators filed for bankruptcy in 2023, and the chain saw hundreds of stores close. It also saw multiple Popeyes franchisees move into bankruptcy, with dozens of locations closing.
RBI also stepped in and purchased one of its key franchisees.
"Carrols is the largest Burger King franchisee in the United States today, operating 1,022 Burger King restaurants in 23 states that generated approximately $1.8 billion of system sales during the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2023," RBI said in a news release. Carrols also owns and operates 60 Popeyes restaurants in six states."
The multichain company made the move after two of its large franchisees, Premier Kings and Meridian, saw multiple locations not purchased when they reached auction after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. In that case, RBI bought select locations but allowed others to close.
Another fast-food chain faces bankruptcy problems
Bojangles may not be as big a name as Burger King or Popeye's, but it's a popular chain with more than 800 restaurants in eight states.
"Bojangles is a Carolina-born restaurant chain specializing in craveable Southern chicken, biscuits and tea made fresh daily from real recipes, and with a friendly smile," the chain says on its website. "Founded in 1977 as a single location in Charlotte, our beloved brand continues to grow nationwide."
Like RBI, Bojangles uses a franchise model, which makes it dependent on the financial health of its operators. The company ultimately saw all its Maryland locations close due to the financial situation of one of its franchisees.
Unlike. RBI, Bojangles is not public — it was taken private by Durational Capital Management LP and Jordan Co. in 2018 — which means the company does not disclose its financial information to the public.
That makes it hard to know whether overall softness for the brand contributed to the chain seeing its five Maryland locations after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.
Bojangles has a messy bankruptcy situation
Even though the locations still appear on the Bojangles website, they have been shuttered since late 2023. The locations were operated by Salim Kakakhail and Yavir Akbar Durranni. The partners operated under a variety of LLCs, including ABS Network, according to local news channel WUSA9.
The station reported that the owners face a state investigation over complaints of wage theft and fraudulent W2s. In November Durranni and ABS Network filed for bankruptcy in New Jersey, WUSA9 reported.
"Not only do former employees say these men owe them money, WUSA9 learned the former owners owe the state, too, and have over $69,000 in back property taxes."
Former employees also say that the restaurant would regularly purchase fried chicken from Popeyes and Safeway when it ran out in their stores, the station reported.
Bojangles sent the station a comment on the situation.
"The franchisee is no longer in the Bojangles system," the company said. "However, it is important to note in your coverage that franchisees are independent business owners who are licensed to operate a brand but have autonomy over many aspects of their business, including hiring employees and payroll responsibilities."
Kakakhail and Durranni did not respond to multiple requests for comment from WUSA9.
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Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 p…
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.Click on graph for larger image.
emphasis added
This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.3% below the average from 1972 to 2022. This was below consensus expectations.
Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.
Industrial production increased to 102.3. This is above the pre-pandemic level.
Industrial production was above consensus expectations.
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