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TDR’s U.S. Stock Market Preview For The Week Of January 23, 2023

A weekly stock market preview and the data that will impact the tape. Sunday Evening Futures Futures Posted 6:30EST Weekend News And Developments American…

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A weekly stock market preview and the data that will impact the tape.

Sunday Evening Futures

Futures Posted 6:30EST

Weekend News And Developments

American lawmakers on Sunday pushed the U.S. government to export M1 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine, saying that even sending a symbolic number to Kyiv would be enough to push European allies to do the same.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva fired the army commander, General Julio Cesar de Arruda, on Saturday, a source with knowledge of the matter said.

China: Hundreds of millions of Chinese people are celebrating the 2023 Lunar New Year this weekend, after Beijing in December reversed the zero-Covid policy which kept most of its population close to home during the pandemic. Market-watchers, meanwhile, are hoping for an economic reversal of fortune, as China emerges from pandemic-induced slowdowns. 

COVID-19 rebound in China over the next two or three months is remote as 80% of people have been infected, a prominent government scientist said on Saturday.

Debt ceiling breached in the U.S. government as standoff in Congress awaits. A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers is preparing a plan to defuse a looming crisis over the nation’s debt ceiling by changing it from a fixed dollar amount a percentage of national economic output, the group’s top Republican said on Sunday.

DNB Asset Management materially increased investments in EV maker Tesla and Plug Power, a hydrogen fuel-cell technology company, while slashing its stake in General Motors in the fourth quarter.

French arm of the Russian state-owned RT television network said on Saturday it was shutting down after authorities used European Union sanctions to freeze its bank accounts.

Genesis: Three former employees of the company claimed they had secured millions of dollars for a new crypto hedge fund, according to correspondence viewed by CNBC.

Google employees are scrambling for answers from leadership and from colleagues as the company undergoes a massive layoff.

Iran’s currency fell to a record low against the U.S. dollar on Saturday amid the country’s increasing isolation and possible Europe Union sanctions against Tehran’s Revolutionary Guards or some of its members.

Juul Labs secured preliminary court approval of a $255 million settlement resolving claims by consumers that it deceptively marketed e-cigarettes, as the company seeks to resolve thousands of lawsuits.

Kotak Mahindra Bank on Saturday reported a 31% increase in standalone net profit for the October-December quarter, aided by a strong topline and healthy loan growth.

Nornickel has proposed slashing its annual dividend for 2022 to $1.5 billion from the $6.3 billion paid out for 2021, the economic news outlet RBC reported on Saturday, citing three sources close to the board of directors.

President Joe Biden’s White House chief of staff, Ron Klain, plans to leave his post in the coming weeks, sources familiar with the matter said on Saturday.

Russian private military contractor Wagner published a short letter to the White House asking what crime his company was accused of, after Washington announced new sanctions on the group.

Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attended a memorial service on Saturday to commemorate seven senior officials killed in a helicopter crash, a fresh blow to a nation already grieving its many war dead.

U.S. existing home sales fall most on record on a month-over-month basis.

U.S. power chip maker Wolfspeed Inc (WOLF.N) is planning to build a factory in Germany for more than 2 billion euros, Handelsblatt reported on Saturday.

Yes Bank (YESB.NS) reported a surprise 80% plunge in quarterly profit on Saturday as provisions for bad loans increased.

What The Analysts Are Saying…

I think inflation is going to get sticky in midyear at around 4%… This transition is particularly noteworthy because inflationary pressures are now less sensitive to central bank policy action. The result could well be more sticky inflation at around double the level of central banks’ current inflation target.” — Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge

In bonds our kryptonite is inflation. Our thesis is that peak inflation is in the rear view mirror and we suspect by mid-year or later there will be evidence the economy is really weakening and inflation is melting. A lot of tightening is still set to hit the economy at a time when it is already slowing. At this point I don’t see a reason to be bearish on bonds.” — Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine

Sell strength on any move back toward the August highs of 4300… I just don’t want to pay an 18 P/E multiple for 0% expected earnings growth.” — Goldman Sachs trader comments on short term market strategy

SPY squeezing between upper & lower weekly trendline—direction of next big move unclear

We have the technologies we need. The International Energy Agency says, for a 50% reduction [in energy-related emissions], we have all we need with proven deployment models already available for us. The next 50%, after 2030, we have the technologies that are in development. We see the pathway to improve them. We know how to get there.” — Al Gore, special U.S. envoy at Davos

 Last Week’s Best & Worst Performing Assets

The Week Ahead…

Earnings reports will dominate the conversation around stocks next week with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Boeing (BA) some of the heavyweights due to report. Federal Reserve speakers will be in a blackout period ahead of the February FOMC meeting, but economic reports will still pour in.

Updates on the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, new home sales, durable goods orders, and consumer sentiment could reinforce the expectation for a recession in the U.S. and set the table for a 25-point rate increase from the Fed, instead of a 50-point hike.

Read the rest @ Seeking Alpha.

U.S. Economic Calendar

TIME (ET)REPORTPERIODMEDIAN FORECASTPREVIOUS
Monday, Jan. 23
10:00 AMLeading economic indicatorsDec.-0.70%-1.00%
Tuesday, Jan. 24
9:45 AMS&P U.S. manufacturing PMI (flash)Jan.4746.2
9:45 AMS&P U.S. services PMI (flash)Jan.45.344.7
Wednesday, Jan. 25None scheduled
Thursday, Jan. 26
8:30 AMInitial jobless claimsJan. 21199,000190,000
8:30 AMContinuing jobless claimsJan. 141.65 million
8:30 AMReal gross domestic product, first estimate (SAAR)Q42.80%3.20%
8:30 AMReal final sales to domestic purchasers, first estimate (SAAR)Q41.50%
8:30 AMTrade in goods (advance)Dec.-$83.3 billion
8:30 AMDurable goods ordersDec.2.90%-2.10%
8:30 AMCore capital goods ordersDec.-0.10%
8:30 AMChicago Fed national activity indexDec.N/A
10:00 AMNew home sales (SAAR)Dec.615,000640,000
Friday, January 13
8:30 AMReal disposable incomes (SAAR)Dec.3.20%
8:30 AMReal consumer spending (SAAR)Dec.0.10%
8:30 AMPCE price indexDec.0.10%
8:30 AMCore PCE price indexDec.0.30%0.20%
8:30 AMPCE price index, year-over-yearDec.5.50%
8:30 AMCore PCE price index, year-over-yearDec.4.40%4.70%
10:00 AMUMich consumer sentiment index (late)Jan.64.664.6
10:00 AMUMich 1-year inflation expectations (late)Jan.4.00%
10:00 AMUMich 5-year inflation expectations (late)Jan.3.00%
10:00 AMPending home salesDec.-1.50%-4.00%
U.S. Economic Calendar, TDR stock market preview

Meme Of The Week

U.S Earnings Calendar

DateCompanySymbolEPS Estimate
Monday, Jan. 23Baker HughesBKR$0.40 per share
Bank of HawaiiBOH$1.42
Brown & BrownBRO$0.46
F.N.B.FNB$0.42
Logitech InternationalLOGI$1.03
Synchrony FinancialSYF$1.13
UmpquaUMPQ$0.54
Zions BancorpZION$1.66
Tuesday, Jan. 24AgilysysAGYS$0.21
Canadian National RailwayCNI$2.09
Capital One FinancialCOF$3.86
D.R. HortonDHI$2.24
DanaherDHR$2.50
F5 NetworksFFIV$2.33
General ElectricGE$1.16
HalliburtonHAL$0.67
Intuitive SurgicalISRG$1.25
InvescoIVZ$0.36
Johnson & JohnsonJNJ$2.24
Lockheed MartinLMT$7.37
MicrosoftMSFT$2.30
NavientNAVI$0.84
Old National BancorpONB$0.57
PACCARPCAR$2.21
Raytheon TechnologiesRTX$1.25
Texas InstrumentsTXN$2.03
TravelersTRV$3.40
Union PacificUNP$2.79
Veritex HoldingsVBTX$0.88
VerizonVZ$1.19
WesBancoWSBC$0.83
Western Alliance BancorpWAL$2.66
Wednesday, January 25Abbott LabsABT$0.93 per share
ASMLASML$4.34
AT&TT$0.58
Automatic Data ProcessingADP$1.94
Axalta Coating SystemsAXTA$0.35
BoeingBA$0.29
Boot Barn HoldingsBOOT$1.75
Crown CastleCCI$1.94
CSXCSX$0.47
Ethan AllenETD$0.89
FlexFLEX$0.60
Freeport-McMoRanFCX$0.43
General DynamicsGD$3.54
HessHESS$1.60
International Business MachinesIBM$3.61
Kimberly-ClarkKMB$1.51
Lam ResearchLCRX$9.94
Las Vegas SandsLVS-$0.10
Lending ClubLC$0.22
Levi StraussLEVI$0.30
NextEra EnergyNEE$0.50
NextEra Energy PartnersNEP$0.49
Norfolk SouthernNSC$3.45
Packaging CorpPKG$2.23
ProgressivePGR$1.45
Raymond JamesRJF$2.28
Seagate TechnologySTX$0.11
ServiceNowNOW$2.02
SL Green RealtySLG$1.48
Steel DynamicsSTLD$3.67
TeslaTSLA$1.13
TextronTXT$1.07
U.S. BancorpUSB$1.14
United RentalsURI$10.29
West FraserWFG$0.02
WolfspeedWOLF-$0.14
Thursday, January 26Alaska AirALK$0.91 per share
American AirlinesAAL$1.07
Archer-Daniels-MidlandADM$1.65
BlackstoneBX$0.97
CNX ResourcesCNX$0.62
ComcastCMCSA$0.77
DowDOW$0.57
Eastman ChemicalEMN$1.25
Federated HermesFHI$0.73
IntelINTC$0.20
JetBlue AirwaysJBLU$0.20
KLA CorporationKLAC$7.03
L3HarrisLHX$3.28
Marsh McLennanMMC$1.40
MastercardMA$2.58
McCormickMKC$0.86
NokiaNOK$0.13
Northrop GrummanNOC$6.57
NucorNUE$4.33
OlinOLN$1.37
OshkoshOSK$1.73
Rockwell AutomationROK$1.87
SAPSAP$1.37
Sherwin-WilliamsSHW$1.86
Southwest AirlinesLUV$0.06
STMicroelectronicsSTM$1.10
T. Rowe PriceTROW$1.70
Tractor SupplyTSCO$2.35
U.S. SteelX$0.63
Valero EnergyVLO$6.96
VisaV$2.01
WeyerhaeuserWY$0.18
XeroxXRX$0.51
Friday, Jan. 27American ExpressAXP$2.24 per share
Booz Allen HamiltonBAH$1.04
Charter CommunicationsCHTR$8.99
ChevronCVX$2.56
Charter CommunicationsCHTR$0.77
Colgate-PalmoliveCL$0.77
LyondellBasellLYB$1.26
WisdomTreeWT$0.04
TDR stock market preview earnings calendar, week of January 23
CNN’s Fear & Greed Index – TDR’s stock market preview

Past Week What’s Hot… and What’s Not

Source: TradingView – TDR’ stock market preview what’s hot this past week

Top 12 High Short Interest Stocks

TickerCompanyExchangeShortIntFloatS/OIndustry
PXMDPaxMedica IncNasdaq63.00%770K11.78MBiotechnology & Medical Research
CVNACarvana CoNYSE58.01%93.26M105.95MRetail (Specialty Non-Apparel)
BBBYBed Bath & Beyond Inc.Nasdaq50.28%76.67M80.36MRetail (Specialty Non-Apparel)
GROMGrom Social Enterprises IncNasdaq44.63%660K760KOnline Services
BYNDBeyond Meat IncNasdaq39.80%57.42M63.74MFood Processing
UPSTUpstart Holdings IncNasdaq39.14%68.62M81.88MConsumer Lending
EVGOEvgo IncNasdaq36.71%67.73M69.36MUtilities – Electric
MSTRMicroStrategy IncNasdaq36.47%9.34M9.35MSoftware & Programming
NVAXNovavax IncNasdaq35.89%84.73M85.00MBiotechnology & Medical Research
WWayfair IncNYSE34.86%71.74M81.43MRetailers – Department Stores
BLNKBlink Charging CoNasdaq32.33%40.37M50.86MUtilities – Electric
PMVPPMV Pharmaceuticals IncNasdaq30.57%31.04M45.67MBiotechnology & Medical Research
Source: highshortinterest.com (data as of January 11, 2023) – TDR’s stock market preview, Top 12 High Short Interest Stocks

Tags: stock market preview, stock market preview January 23, 2023

The post TDR’s U.S. Stock Market Preview For The Week Of January 23, 2023 appeared first on The Dales Report.

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Schedule for Week of January 29, 2023

The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.The FOMC meets this week, and the FO…

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The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.

Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.

The FOMC meets this week, and the FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.

----- Monday, January 30th -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January.

----- Tuesday, January 31st -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for November. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November.

This graph shows the Year over year change in the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 6.9% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 44.9, down from 45.1 in December.

10:00 AM: The Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

----- Wednesday, February 1st -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 235,000 added in December.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in construction spending.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Job openings decreased in November to 10.458 million from 10.512 million in October

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.0, down from 48.4 in December.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 14.3 million SAAR in January, up from 13.3 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the December sales rate.

----- Thursday, February 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 200 thousand initial claims, up from 186 thousand last week.
----- Friday, February 3rd -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 185,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.

There were 223,000 jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The pandemic employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, as of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.24 million above pre-pandemic levels.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, up from 49.6 in December.

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US gov’t $1.5T debt interest will be equal 3X Bitcoin market cap in 2023

The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.

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The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.

Commentators believe that Bitcoin (BTC) bulls do not need to wait long for the United States to start printing money again.

The latest analysis of U.S. macroeconomic data has led one market strategist to predict quantitative tightening (QT) ending to avoid a “catastrophic debt crisis.”

Analyst: Fed will have “no choice” with rate cuts

The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to remove liquidity from the financial system to fight inflation, reversing years of COVID-19-era money printing.

While interest rate hikes look set to continue declining in scope, some now believe that the Fed will soon have only one option — to halt the process altogether.

“Why the Fed will have no choice but to cut or risk a catastrophic debt crisis,” Sven Henrich, founder of NorthmanTrader, summarized on Jan. 27.

“Higher for longer is a fantasy not rooted in math reality.”

Henrich uploaded a chart showing interest payments on current U.S. government expenditure, now hurtling toward $1 trillion a year.

A dizzying number, the interest comes from U.S. government debt being over $31 trillion, with the Fed printing trillions of dollars since March 2020. Since then, interest payments have increased by 42%, Henrich noted.

The phenomenon has not gone unnoticed elsewhere in crypto circles. Popular Twitter account Wall Street Silver compared the interest payments as a portion of U.S. tax revenue.

“US paid $853 Billion in Interest for $31 Trillion Debt in 2022; More than Defense Budget in 2023. If the Fed keeps rates at these levels (or higher) we will be at $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion in interest paid on the debt,” it wrote.

“The US govt collects about $4.9 trillion in taxes.”
Interest rates on U.S. government debt chart (screenshot). Source: Wall Street Silver/ Twitter

Such a scenario might be music to the ears of those with significant Bitcoin exposure. Periods of “easy” liquidity have corresponded with increased appetite for risk assets across the mainstream investment world.

The Fed’s unwinding of that policy accompanied Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market, and a “pivot” in interest rate hikes is thus seen by many as the first sign of the “good” times returning.

Crypto pain before pleasure?

Not everyone, however, agrees that the impact on risk assets, including crypto, will be all-out positive prior to that.

Related: Bitcoin ‘so bullish’ at $23K as analyst reveals new BTC price metrics

As Cointelegraph reported, ex-BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes that chaos will come first, tanking Bitcoin and altcoins to new lows before any sort of long-term renaissance kicks in.

If the Fed faces a complete lack of options to avoid a meltdown, Hayes believes that the damage will have already been done before QT gives way to quantitative easing.

“This scenario is less ideal because it would mean that everyone who is buying risky assets now would be in store for massive drawdowns in performance. 2023 could be just as bad as 2022 until the Fed pivots,” he wrote in a blog post this month.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Stay Ahead of GDP: 3 Charts to Become a Smarter Trader

When concerns of a recession are front and center, investors tend to pay more attention to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The Q4 2022 GDP report…

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When concerns of a recession are front and center, investors tend to pay more attention to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The Q4 2022 GDP report showed the U.S. economy grew by 2.9% in the quarter, and Wall Street wasn't disappointed. The day the report was released, the market closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJIA) up 0.61%, the S&P 500 index ($SPX) up 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) up 1.76%. Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Energy were the top-performing S&P sectors.

Add to the GDP report strong earnings from Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and a mega announcement from Chevron Corp. (CVX)—raising dividends and a $75 billion buyback round—and you get a strong day in the stock markets.

Why is the GDP Report Important?

If a country's GDP is growing faster than expected, it could be a positive indication of economic strength. It means that consumer spending, business investment, and exports, among other factors, are going strong. But the GDP is just one indicator, and one indicator doesn't necessarily tell the whole story. It's a good idea to look at other indicators, such as the unemployment rate, inflation, and consumer sentiment, before making a conclusion.

Inflation appears to be cooling, but the labor market continues to be strong. The Fed has stated in many of its previous meetings that it'll be closely watching the labor market. So that'll be a sticky point as we get close to the next Fed meeting. Consumer spending is also strong, according to the GDP report. But that could have been because of increased auto sales and spending on services such as health care, personal care, and utilities. Retail sales released earlier in January indicated that holiday sales were lower.

There's a chance we could see retail sales slowing in Q1 2023 as some households run out of savings that were accumulated during the pandemic. This is something to keep an eye on going forward, as a slowdown in retail sales could mean increases in inventories. And this is something that could decrease economic activity.

Overall, the recent GDP report indicates the U.S. economy is strong, although some economists feel we'll probably see some downside in 2023, though not a recession. But the one drawback of the GDP report is that it's lagging. It comes out after the fact. Wouldn't it be great if you had known this ahead of time so you could position your trades to take advantage of the rally? While there's no way to know with 100% accuracy, there are ways to identify probable events.

3 Ways To Stay Ahead of the Curve

Instead of waiting for three months to get next quarter's GDP report, you can gauge the potential strength or weakness of the overall U.S. economy. Steven Sears, in his book The Indomitable Investor, suggested looking at these charts:

  • Copper prices
  • High-yield corporate bonds
  • Small-cap stocks

Copper: An Economic Indicator

You may not hear much about copper, but it's used in the manufacture of several goods and in construction. Given that manufacturing and construction make up a big chunk of economic activity, the red metal is more important than you may have thought. If you look at the chart of copper futures ($COPPER) you'll see that, in October 2022, the price of copper was trading sideways, but, in November, its price rose and trended quite a bit higher. This would have been an indication of a strengthening economy.

CHART 1: COPPER CONTINUOUS FUTURES CONTRACTS. Copper prices have been rising since November 2022. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

High-Yield Bonds: Risk On Indicator

The higher the risk, the higher the yield. That's the premise behind high-yield bonds. In short, companies that are leveraged, smaller, or just starting to grow may not have the solid balance sheets that more established companies are likely to have. If the economy slows down, investors are likely to sell the high-yield bonds and pick up the safer U.S. Treasury bonds.

Why the flight to safety? It's because when the economy is sluggish, the companies that issue the high-yield bonds tend to find it difficult to service their debts. When the economy is expanding, the opposite happens—they tend to perform better.

The chart below of the Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index ($DJCB) shows that, since the end of October 2022, the index trended higher. Similar to copper prices, high-yield corporate bond activity was also indicating economic expansion. You'll see similar action in charts of high-yield bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK).

CHART 2: HIGH-YIELD BONDS TRENDING HIGHER. The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index ($DJCB) has been trending higher since end of October 2022.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Small-Cap Stocks: They're Sensitive

Pull up a chart of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and you'll see similar price action (see chart 3). Since mid-October, small-cap stocks (the Russell 2000 index is made up of 2000 small companies) have been moving higher.

CHART 3: SMALL-CAP STOCKS TRENDING HIGHER. When the economy is expanding, small-cap stocks trend higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Three's Company

If all three of these indicators are showing strength, you can expect the GDP number to be strong. There are times when the GDP number may not impact the markets, but, when inflation is a problem and the Fed is trying to curb it by raising interest rates, the GDP number tends to impact the markets.

This scenario is likely to play out in 2023, so it would be worth your while to set up a GDP Tracker ChartList. Want a live link to the charts used in this article? They're all right here.


Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan

Director, Site Content

StockCharts.com

 

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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