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Stepping Up To A Sustainable Future, Post COVID-19

Stepping Up To A Sustainable Future, Post COVID-19

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Methane Target financed emissions

Trucost, part of S&P Global has published a report, Stepping up to a sustainable future, post COVID-19, which lays out how companies can implement ‘back-to-work’ strategies that align with global climate goals.

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Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Key data and analysis includes:

  • 7% reduction in international shipping freight would align carbon emissions from the shipping sector with a 2°C climate scenario by 2030.
  • 40% reduction in business air miles would align emissions from the whole aviation sector by 2030.
  • 3-day work-from-home policy in the professional services sector would align emissions from passenger transport over the next 5 years.

Stepping Up To A Sustainable Future, Post COVID-19

As the world continue to tackle the coronavirus pandemic, we take a moment to consider how the crisis could affect the way we address the other global systemic risks, such as climate change.

We have already started to see news reports on the connection between the pandemic and climate-related issues. Satellite images show a marked fall in global nitrogen dioxide levels as the slowdown in non-essential travel and industrial activity has improved the air quality in major cities and other industrial heartlands in Asia and Europe[1]. At a global level, scientists predict annual carbon emissions may drop by more than 5% – in what would be the largest fall since the end of the Second World War[2].

When the immediate health crisis and economic downturn are over, the world will be presented with a choice. Carbon emissions could come surging back if countries lean heavily on carbon intensive energy sources and historically low oil prices to rebuild their economies. Alternatively, countries could mobilize stimulus packages that align with global climate goals and respond with renewed vigour in tackling the climate crisis. This could be an opportunity for businesses to embrace strategies that decouple growth from emissions.

Decoupling growth from emissions

One of the tools companies have used in recent years is to set carbon reduction targets that align with the central goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2°C. While a growing number of businesses are measuring and reporting emissions, and many are setting reduction targets, those that are aligned with the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C have been in the minority. However, there is an opportunity for companies to start implementing ‘back-to-work’ strategies that align with global climate goals. We have explored what this might look like for three areas of business.

Shipping Freight

According to data from Panjiva, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, lockdowns around the world have had a significant impact on trade. US seaborne imports from China, for example, fell 59.5% year-on-year in the first three weeks of March. In response, companies have been relocating their production bases to reduce disruption risks. This process, known as “proximity sourcing” or “re-shoring” has been more prevalent since the onset of the US-China trade dispute but has accelerated in recent weeks as the pandemic has worsened.

Figure 2: Year-on-year change in seaborne imports to the US, by country of origin, Jan-Mar 2020

Carbon emissions

Source: Panjiva, (2020). Q2 2020 Outlook.

However, this may present an opportunity for companies to redesign their supply chains in accordance with global climate goals. Global shipping accounts for about 3% of global carbon emissions[3] and while not directly included in the Paris Agreement can contribute significantly to a company’s upstream and downstream carbon footprint. However, our projections show that just a 7% reduction in dry cargo trade would align carbon emissions from the shipping sector with a 2°C scenario by 2030 (Figure 3). This would also bring it closer in line with the IMO reduction goal to halve emissions by 2050 compared to 2008 levels.

Figure 3: Emissions trajectory of the shipping sector in selected scenarios[4]. 5% reduction excludes tanker trade.

Carbon emissions

Source: Trucost (As of April 2020)

Business Air Travel

Until very recently, aviation was projected to be one of the fastest growing industries within the transport sector with forecasts showing passenger numbers doubling by 2037[5] and the miles travelled by paying passengers increasing by 82% by 2050. Like shipping, aviation is not directly included in the Paris Agreement but carbon emissions from the sector are expected to increase by a third by 2050 based on these growth projections.

In the short-term, companies in all sectors are likely to feel the pressure to reduce overheads and business travel would be an easy target. Virtual attendance at conferences or meetings is likely to receive broader acceptance after the “biggest work-from-home experiment” triggered by the pandemic and this could have a long-lasting impact on how businesses approach travel policies within their companies.

Our analysis shows that if every company currently engaged in business travel were to reduce air travel miles by 40% it would align the whole aviation sector with a 2°C climate scenario by 2030 (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Emissions trajectory of the aviation sector in selected scenarios[6].

Carbon emissions

Source: Trucost (As of April 2020)

Employee Commuting

The lockdown of cities around the world has had an immediate effect on transport associated with employee commuting. Motor vehicle journeys in the UK reduced by approximately 60% between February and April[7]. In March, petrol sales also declined by 8.2% year-on-year in Washington State, the centre of the coronavirus outbreak on the west coast of USA[8].

However, having spent months working from home, businesses and their staff have will have removed many of the technical and behavioural barriers associated with remote working. If all businesses in the professional services sector, assuming work can be done remotely, implemented a 3-day work-from-home policy, it would align emissions from passenger transport with a 2°C climate scenario for the next 5 years. However, further efficiency gains and more sustainable transport use are needed elsewhere after 2026 to keep emissions reductions in line.

Figure 5: Emissions trajectory of the passenger transportation sector in selected scenarios[9].

Carbon emissions

Source: Trucost (As of April 2020)

The road ahead is uncertain and many sectors will be faced with different challenges as they look to respond to the unintended consequences of the pandemic. The opportunities for businesses to align ‘back to work’ strategies with global climate goals will also clearly have indirect implications for other sectors. However, coupled with the right economic stimulus packages we may be able to lay the building blocks for a sustainable future.

Article by Richard Mattison, CEO and Steven Bullock, Global Head of Research and Innovation, Trucost, part of S&P Global


[1] The Guardian, (March 23, 2020), Coronavirus pandemic leading to huge drop in air pollution. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/23/coronavirus-pandemic-leading-to-huge-drop-in-air-pollution

[2] Newsweek, (April 3, 2020), Covid-19 pandemic could lead to fall in CO2 not seen since the end of WWII. Available at:  https://www.newsweek.com/covid-19-pandemic-fall-co2-end-wwii-1495961

[3] CDP, (2019), A Sea Change. Available at: https://www.cdp.net/en/articles/media/shipping-heavyweights-at-risk-of-missing-climate-targets

[4] IEA, (2019), 2-degree scenario aligns with IEA’s SDS scenario. Tracking Transport. Available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-transport-2019

[5] IATA, (2018), 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast. Available at: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2018-10-24-02/

[6] IEA, (2019), 2-degree scenario aligns with IEA’s SDS scenario. Tracking Transport. Available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-transport-2019

[7] Cabinet Office Briefing Room, (2020). Slides to accompany coronavirus press conference: 7 April 2020. Available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-7-april-2020

[8] Financial Times, (March 14, 2020). Coronavirus puts the brake on America’s gas-guzzling ways. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/45c9829a-6573-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

[9] IEA, (2019), 2-degree scenario aligns with IEA’s SDS scenario. Tracking Transport. Available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-transport-2019

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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