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Sick Thoughts Of Capitulating

Sick Thoughts Of Capitulating

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Almost daily, where I reside in Philadelphia, I jog or walk past the United…

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Sick Thoughts Of Capitulating

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Almost daily, where I reside in Philadelphia, I jog or walk past the United States Mint and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Both institutions are merely a couple of blocks apart in Old City, housed in heavily guarded structures made of marble and cement that appear impervious, even to a Category 5 hurricane.

From the exterior, to the fortified loading ramps for incoming and outgoing 18-wheelers, to the police who diligently patrol on foot and passively survey sidewalk activity — everything about these buildings exudes a sense of security.

However, as tourists walk through the front doors to peruse carefully assembled exhibits explaining our monetary system, the back rooms in these buildings are busy generating pure inflation. There, PhDs in suits hand down flawed monetary policies that are, by mathematical certainty, setting our country down the wrong course.

There are days, like one I experienced early this week, when I simply stand in awe of these buildings. Everything about them screams stability, and their inhabitants will passionately argue that stability is precisely their raison d'être. Yet, it's hard to ignore the facts. Income inequality is widening, and inflation is spiraling out of control, disproportionately affecting the middle and lower classes. Meanwhile, limousine-liberal economists like Paul Krugman take to the airwaves, confidently proclaiming an economic victory utilizing these institutions…for reasons they can't even clearly articulate.

“The economic data have been just surreally good. Even optimists are just stunned,” he recently said on CNN. “This is a goldilocks economy.”

He says inflation is coming down “quickly and painlessly”.

“We don’t really understand why this is happening. I can come up with multiple stories, but it’s important to point out that there’s a really profound and peculiar disconnect going on.”

You can say that again, Paul.

For a good portion of the population, this bullshit commentary cuts the mustard and this state of affairs is perfectly acceptable, as long as it doesn’t interrupt their planned weekend golf trip or doesn’t prevent their football team from kicking off on Sunday.

Many people continue to invest in their 401(k)s and have reaped benefits over the decades as the stock market ascends, seemingly defying gravity and common sense, all while leaving a trail of socio-economic casualties in its wake.

For me, the harsh reality of the situation is impossible to ignore. With more than two decades of investing experience, I've often considered my ability to anticipate market crashes or spikes in volatility as a gift. In the short term, my cautious nature usually puts me ahead of market fluctuations. Many of my followers started paying attention during the COVID-19 crisis, when I accurately predicted both the pandemic and the subsequent market crash. At that time, my pessimistic outlook was largely seen as an asset.

However, nearly two years into a rate-hiking cycle, the stock market is signaling that all is well, a notion that economically seems implausible. This has turned my once-valued caution into a liability.

For roughly the past 18 months, I've been betting on increased market volatility, a position that hasn't paid off. As I reflect on this, I can't help but question, on a broader, existential level, whether my market perspective is fundamentally flawed. It's not the unsuccessful trades that concern me; rather, it's the thought that my view of the market might be more trouble than it's worth. What has this two-decade vigil for a system collapse yielded? A few profitable moments, certainly, but nothing that has defined my career or life. And here I am again, in a situation where I believe the economic indicators are dire, yet the market steadfastly disagrees.

At what point does the daily struggle become too much? I do maintain dividend-earning and long-only portfolios that stand to benefit from the current situation, but when does it stop being worth the mental toll of feeling like I'm constantly swimming against the current?


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Setting the trade aside, it's about outlook. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surpassed estimates—albeit slightly—but also still came in at a level nearly twice what the Fed is targeting. The stark reality is that inflation is still not under control, despite narratives about a "soft landing" or the notion that the Fed has everything in hand. Guided by the CPI, there's scant evidence to suggest the Fed will shift course anytime soon.

Even if the Fed changed their policy tomorrow, the die is cast for the economy. Credit card debt is soaring, personal savings are dwindling, mortgage rates are at two-decade highs, and the excess liquidity from the pandemic era is drying up. The current trajectory is unsustainable. Maybe the Fed will once again engineer a market bailout, sending gold prices skyrocketing. Or perhaps they'll let the market crash to combat inflation. The unpredictability of government reactions and market directions creates a volatile mix.

As certain as I am about this chaotic calculus incoming, I also know it won't be long before the government finds another way to manipulate the system. They'll scapegoat market crashes on non-sequiturs that the commonfolk will accept without question, blaming volatility on foreign leaders and bombing Syria as a result — or they’ll blame inflation on gold enthusiasts using cash instead of credit cards at gas pumps. They might even escalate their bond-buying programs or brazenly start purchasing stocks under the guise of a new way to help obese Americans burn fat—a maneuver I suspect they've been conducting covertly for years (the government buying stocks, not Americans losing weight).

Point is: when the government and the Federal Reserve set the rules, they have carte blanche to rig the game as they see fit.

This puts me in an intellectual quagmire. Why even decry a monetary policy that I find morally abhorrent and ethically dubious? Why bother challenging modern monetary theorists when so many just set their concerns on autopilot and enjoy a leisurely weekend? I question whether I'm expending too much mental energy on this, but I can't stay silent when global monetary policy defies reason.

Despite uncertainties about market volatility, the most recent CPI numbers were met with celebration, and the NASDAQ continues to perform well. If I had just invested passively, I'd be comfortably counting my gains for the year. But that's not me.

Over the last 18 months, I've often felt worn out—disheartened by my own skepticism and tired of seeing a flawed system perpetuate indefinitely. It's particularly concerning that the real consequences of this system disproportionately impact the middle and lower classes—yet this is seldom discussed or understood.

As we move towards year-end, market volatility seems unusually subdued, almost inviting disaster when least expected. Have I lost my touch in offering a reality check? Am I the one who's out of touch? These questions are louder in my head now than ever before.

I feel like Peter Gibbons from Office Space waiting to change lanes on his way to work. He thinks he’s finally found an open lane, switches, and before he knows it is waiting in an even longer line of cars watching the line he used to be in go flying by him.

The day I capitulate and declare that all is well—when it's clearly not—will be the day before chaos reigns. It makes it a lose/lose scenario for me when contemplating switching to ‘the dark side’. If I give the ‘all clear’ the day before the market wrecks 15% and I knew why and how it was going to happen all along, I’ll never forgive myself.

But swimming upstream isn’t always easy, and gets tiring after a while.

“You never need patience more than when you’re about to lose it.”

- Sign hanging at my local Korean deli, where they are notoriously slow making sandwiches.

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QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/19/2023 - 09:35

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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