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Shipbuilding market: APAC is estimated to contribute 73% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period- Technavio

Shipbuilding market: APAC is estimated to contribute 73% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period- Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Dec. 6, 2022

NEW YORK, Dec. 6, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — The shipbuilding market size is forecast to …

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1 year ago

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Shipbuilding market: APAC is estimated to contribute 73% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period- Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Dec. 6, 2022

NEW YORK, Dec. 6, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The shipbuilding market size is forecast to grow by USD 24.52 billion at a CAGR of 4.5% between 2022 and 2027. APAC is forecasted to contribute 73% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period. Increasing developments in the regional maritime transportation sector are acting as the major driving force for the regional shipbuilding market. China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, and Malaysia are the leading countries in terms of seaport transportation of goods and, therefore, drive the growth of the shipbuilding market in the region. 

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Competitive analysis

The competitive scenario categorizes companies based on various performance indicators. Some of the factors considered include the financial performance of companies, growth strategies, product innovations, new product launches, investments, and growth in market share, among others, Buy the report

Shipbuilding Market: Segmentation Analysis

Technavio has segmented the shipbuilding market by application (commercial and defense), type (oil tankers, bulk carriers, cargo ships, and others), and geography (APAC, Europe, South America, North America, and Middle East and Africa). The report provides actionable insights and estimates the contribution of all segments to the growth of the global market.

  • The commercial segment will hold the largest share of the market's growth during the forecast period. The growth of the shipbuilding commercial segment is driven by the increase in international trade through maritime logistics. This is resulting in an increase in container handling operations at marine ports, which are accelerating the need for commercial ships and vessels.
  • Download a sample report

Key factors driving market growth

  • Increasing seaborne trading is notably driving the shipbuilding market growth. Over the last couple of decades, it has been recorded that the shipbuilding industry has witnessed an increase in the overall trade volume.
  • Furthermore, technological advancement is also contributing to the growth of seaborne trading. The improved fuel efficiency and multi-fuel engine have made shipping an efficient method of transportation. 
  • Due to an increase in population in developing economies the demand for goods and raw materials is rapidly increasing. This is also a major factor behind the rise in seaborne trading. 

Leading trends influencing the market

  • An increase in demand for eco-friendly ships is the primary trend shaping the shipbuilding market.  
  • The initial International Maritime Organization strategy was adopted during the 72nd session on 13 April 2018 by the Marine Environment Protection Committee to control greenhouse gas emissions from ships. The vision behind the adoption of this strategy was to reduce 40% of the global average of CO2 emissions by 2030 from shipping.  
  • The need for eco-friendly ships, which adhere to the current norms, will rise due to such environmental regulations. The trend is expected to continue during the forecast period.

Download the sample to get a holistic overview of the shipbuilding market by industry experts to evaluate and develop growth strategies.

What are the key data covered in the shipbuilding market report?

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period
  • Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the shipbuilding market between 2023 and 2027
  • Precise estimation of the size of the shipbuilding market and its contribution to the parent market
  • Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • Growth of the shipbuilding market across APAC, North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and South America
  • Thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
  • Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of shipbuilding market vendors

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Construction Machinery Market by Product and Geography – Forecast and Analysis 2021-2025: The construction machinery market size is forecasted to grow to USD 31.67 billion from 2020 to 2025. This report extensively covers construction machinery market segmentation by product (earthmoving machinery, material handling machinery, concrete and road construction machinery, and other machinery) and geography (APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and MEA).

Shipbuilding Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

163

Base year

2022

Historic period

2017-2021

Forecast period

2023-2027

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 4.5%

Market growth 2023-2027

USD 24.52 billion

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023 (%)

3.65

Regional analysis

APAC, Europe, South America, North America, and Middle East and Africa

Performing market contribution

APAC at 73%

Key countries

China, South Korea, Japan, The Philippines, and Poland

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

BAE Systems Plc, Conrad Industries Inc., Damen Shipyards Group, Derecktor Shipyards, Fincantieri Spa, Fr. Fassmer GmbH and Co. KG, General Dynamics Corp., Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc., Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. Ltd., IHI Corp., IMABARI SHIPBUILDING CO. LTD., International Maritime Industries, Oshima Shipbuilding Co. Ltd., Paramount Maritime Holdings, Samsung Heavy Industries Co. Ltd., Ulstein Group ASA, Uzmar Shipbuilding and Trade Inc., Cheoy Lee Shipyards Ltd., Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., and Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd.

Market dynamics

Parent market analysis, Market growth inducers and obstacles, Fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, Market condition analysis for the forecast period

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Table of Contents:

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market Overview
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Application
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Type
    • Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 09: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem
    • Exhibit 10: Parent market
    • Exhibit 11: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market Definition
    • Exhibit 12: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 13: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2022
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 14: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 15: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 16: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 17: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)

4 Historic Market Size

  • 4.1 Global shipbuilding market 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 18: Historic Market Size – Data Table on Global shipbuilding market 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.2 Application Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 19: Historic Market Size – Application Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.3 Type Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 20: Historic Market Size – Type Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.4 Geography Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 21: Historic Market Size – Geography Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.5 Country Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 22: Historic Market Size – Country Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)

5 Five Forces Analysis

  • 5.1 Five forces summary
    • Exhibit 23: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2022 and 2027
  • 5.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2022 and 2027
  • 5.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 25: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 26: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 27: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.6 Threat of rivalry
    • Exhibit 28: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.7 Market condition
    • Exhibit 29: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2022 and 2027

6 Market Segmentation by Application

  • 6.1 Market segments
    • Exhibit 30: Chart on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 31: Data Table on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.2 Comparison by Application 
    • Exhibit 32: Chart on Comparison by Application
    • Exhibit 33: Data Table on Comparison by Application
  • 6.3 Commercial - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 34: Chart on Commercial - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 35: Data Table on Commercial - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 36: Chart on Commercial - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 37: Data Table on Commercial - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.4 Defense - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 38: Chart on Defense - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 39: Data Table on Defense - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 40: Chart on Defense - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 41: Data Table on Defense - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.5 Market opportunity by Application 
    • Exhibit 42: Market opportunity by Application ($ billion)

7 Market Segmentation by Type

  • 7.1 Market segments
    • Exhibit 43: Chart on Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 44: Data Table on Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.2 Comparison by Type
    • Exhibit 45: Chart on Comparison by Type
    • Exhibit 46: Data Table on Comparison by Type
  • 7.3 Oil tankers - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 47: Chart on Oil tankers - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 48: Data Table on Oil tankers - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 49: Chart on Oil tankers - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 50: Data Table on Oil tankers - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.4 Bulk carriers - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 51: Chart on Bulk carriers - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 52: Data Table on Bulk carriers - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 53: Chart on Bulk carriers - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 54: Data Table on Bulk carriers - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.5 Cargo ships - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 55: Chart on Cargo ships - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 56: Data Table on Cargo ships - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 57: Chart on Cargo ships - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 58: Data Table on Cargo ships - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.6 Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 59: Chart on Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 60: Data Table on Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 61: Chart on Others - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 62: Data Table on Others - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.7 Market opportunity by Type 
    • Exhibit 63: Market opportunity by Type ($ billion)

8 Customer Landscape

  • 8.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 64: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

9 Geographic Landscape

  • 9.1 Geographic segmentation 
    • Exhibit 65: Chart on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 66: Data Table on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.2 Geographic comparison 
    • Exhibit 67: Chart on Geographic comparison
    • Exhibit 68: Data Table on Geographic comparison
  • 9.3 APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 69: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 70: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 71: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 72: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.4 Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 73: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 74: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 75: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 76: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.5 South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 77: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 78: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 79: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 80: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.6 North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 81: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 82: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 83: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 84: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.7 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 85: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 86: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 87: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 88: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.8 China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 89: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 90: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 91: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 92: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.9 South Korea - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 93: Chart on South Korea - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 94: Data Table on South Korea - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 95: Chart on South Korea - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 96: Data Table on South Korea - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.10 Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 97: Chart on Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 98: Data Table on Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 99: Chart on Japan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 100: Data Table on Japan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.11 The Philippines - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 101: Chart on The Philippines - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 102: Data Table on The Philippines - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 103: Chart on The Philippines - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 104: Data Table on The Philippines - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.12 Poland - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 105: Chart on Poland - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 106: Data Table on Poland - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 107: Chart on Poland - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 108: Data Table on Poland - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.13 Market opportunity by geography 
    • Exhibit 109: Market opportunity by geography ($ billion)

10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 10.1 Market drivers
  • 10.2 Market challenges
  • 10.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 110: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2022 and 2027
  • 10.4 Market trends

11 Vendor Landscape

  • 11.1 Overview
  • 11.2 Vendor landscape
    • Exhibit 111: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 11.3 Landscape disruption
    • Exhibit 112: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 11.4 Industry risks
    • Exhibit 113: Impact of key risks on business

12 Vendor Analysis

  • 12.1 Vendors covered
    • Exhibit 114: Vendors covered
  • 12.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 115: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 12.3 BAE Systems Plc
    • Exhibit 116: BAE Systems Plc - Overview
    • Exhibit 117: BAE Systems Plc - Business segments
    • Exhibit 118: BAE Systems Plc - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 119: BAE Systems Plc - Segment focus
  • 12.4 Cheoy Lee Shipyards Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 120: Cheoy Lee Shipyards Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 121: Cheoy Lee Shipyards Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 122: Cheoy Lee Shipyards Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.5 Conrad Industries Inc. 
    • Exhibit 123: Conrad Industries Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 124: Conrad Industries Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 125: Conrad Industries Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 126: Conrad Industries Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.6 Damen Shipyards Group 
    • Exhibit 127: Damen Shipyards Group - Overview
    • Exhibit 128: Damen Shipyards Group - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 129: Damen Shipyards Group - Key news
    • Exhibit 130: Damen Shipyards Group - Key offerings
  • 12.7 Derecktor Shipyards
    • Exhibit 131: Derecktor Shipyards - Overview
    • Exhibit 132: Derecktor Shipyards - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 133: Derecktor Shipyards - Key offerings
  • 12.8 Fincantieri Spa
    • Exhibit 134: Fincantieri Spa - Overview
    • Exhibit 135: Fincantieri Spa - Business segments
    • Exhibit 136: Fincantieri Spa - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 137: Fincantieri Spa - Segment focus
  • 12.9 Fr. Fassmer GmbH and Co. KG 
    • Exhibit 138: Fr. Fassmer GmbH and Co. KG - Overview
    • Exhibit 139: Fr. Fassmer GmbH and Co. KG - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 140: Fr. Fassmer GmbH and Co. KG - Key news
    • Exhibit 141: Fr. Fassmer GmbH and Co. KG - Key offerings
  • 12.10 General Dynamics Corp. 
    • Exhibit 142: General Dynamics Corp. - Overview
    • Exhibit 143: General Dynamics Corp. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 144: General Dynamics Corp. - Key news
    • Exhibit 145: General Dynamics Corp. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 146: General Dynamics Corp. - Segment focus
  • 12.11 Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. 
    • Exhibit 147: Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 148: Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 149: Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 150: Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.12 Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 151: Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 152: Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 153: Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.13 IMABARI SHIPBUILDING CO. LTD. 
    • Exhibit 154: IMABARI SHIPBUILDING CO. LTD. - Overview
    • Exhibit 155: IMABARI SHIPBUILDING CO. LTD. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 156: IMABARI SHIPBUILDING CO. LTD. - Key offerings
  • 12.14 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 157: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 158: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 159: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. - Key news
    • Exhibit 160: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 161: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.15 Oshima Shipbuilding Co. Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 162: Oshima Shipbuilding Co. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 163: Oshima Shipbuilding Co. Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 164: Oshima Shipbuilding Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.16 Samsung Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 165: Samsung Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 166: Samsung Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 167: Samsung Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 168: Samsung Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.17 Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 169: Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 170: Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 171: Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd. - Key offerings

13 Appendix

  • 13.1 Scope of the report
  • 13.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 172: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 173: Exclusions checklist
  • 13.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 174: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 13.4 Research methodology
    • Exhibit 175: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 176: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 177: Information sources
  • 13.5 List of abbreviations
    • Exhibit 178: List of abbreviations
About Technavio

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focus on emerging market trends and provide actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions.

With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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Email: media@technavio.com
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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

Published

3 hours ago

on

March 11, 2024

By

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

Published

11 hours ago

on

March 11, 2024

By

  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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March 9, 2024

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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