Connect with us

Uncategorized

SBF takes the stand, ‘buy Bitcoin’ searches soar and other news: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 22-28

Sam Bankman-Fried testifies in court, searches for ‘buy Bitcoin’ surge, and Gemini sues Genesis over collateral.
Top Stories This…

Published

4 months ago

on

Sam Bankman-Fried testifies in court, searches for ‘buy Bitcoin’ surge, and Gemini sues Genesis over collateral.

Top Stories This Week

Sam Bankman-Fried takes the stand on FTXs collapse

Sam SBF Bankman-Fried testified this week in his ongoing criminal trial in the Southern District of New York, denying any wrongdoing between FTX and Alameda Research while acknowledging making big mistakes during the companies’ explosive growth. Highlights of his testimony include denying directing his inner circle to make significant political donations in 2021, as well as claims that FTX’s terms of use covered transactions between Alameda and the crypto exchange. Additionally, Bankman-Fried testified that he requested additional hedging strategies for Alameda in 2021 and 2022, but they were never implemented. The trial is expected to conclude within the next few days.

Buy Bitcoin search queries on Google surge 826% in the UK

Google searches for buy Bitcoin have surged worldwide amid a major crypto rally, with searches in the United Kingdom growing by more than 800% in the last week. According to research from Cryptogambling.tv, the search term buy Bitcoin spiked a staggering 826% in the U.K. over the course of seven days. In the United States, data from Google Trends shows that searches for should I buy Bitcoin now? increased by more than 250%, while more niche searches, including can I buy Bitcoin on Fidelity? increased by over 3,100% in the last week. Zooming out further, the search term is it a good time to buy Bitcoin? saw a 110% gain worldwide over the last week.

US court issues mandate for Grayscale ruling, paving way for SEC to review spot Bitcoin ETF

The United States Court of Appeals has issued a mandate following a decision requiring Grayscale Investments application for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) to be reviewed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In an Oct. 23 filing, the formal mandate of the court took effect, paving the way for the SEC to review its decision on Grayscales spot Bitcoin ETF. The mandate followed the courts initial ruling on Aug. 29 and the SECs failure to present an appeal by Oct. 13. To date, the SEC has yet to approve a single spot crypto ETF for listing on U.S. exchanges but has given the green light to investment vehicles linked to Bitcoin and Ether futures.

Coinbase disputes SECs crypto authority in final bid to toss regulators suit

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission overstepped its authority when it classified Coinbase-listed cryptocurrencies as securities, the exchange has argued in its final bid to dismiss a lawsuit by the securities regulator. In an Oct. 24 filing in a New York District Court, Coinbase chastised the SEC, claiming its definition for what qualifies as a security was too wide, and contested that the cryptocurrencies the exchange lists are not under the regulators purview. The SEC sued Coinbase on June 6, claiming the exchange violated U.S. securities laws by listing several tokens it considers securities and not registering with the regulator.

Gemini sues Genesis over GBTC shares used as Earn collateral, now worth $1.6B

Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini filed a lawsuit against bankrupt crypto lender Genesis on Oct. 27. At issue is the fate of 62,086,586 shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. They were used as collateral to secure loans made by 232,000 Gemini users to Genesis through the Gemini Earn Program. That collateral is currently worth close to $1.6 billion. According to the suit, Gemini has received $284.3 million from foreclosing on the collateral for the benefit of Earn users, but Genesis has disputed the action, preventing Gemini from distributing the proceeds. Genesis filed for bankruptcy in January. It had suspended withdrawals in November 2022, which impacted the Gemini Earn program.

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $34,143, Ether (ETH) at $1,789 and XRP at $0.54. The total market cap is at $1.26 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are Pepe (PEPE) at 72.08%, Mina (MINA) at 55.47% and FLOKI (FLOKI) at 53.33%. 

The top three altcoin losers of the week are Bitcoin SV (BSV) at -10.27%, Toncoin (TON) -3.14% and Trust Wallet Token (TWT) at -0.82%.

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraphs market analysis.

Read also
6 Questions for...

6 Questions for Kei Oda: From Goldman Sachs to cryptocurrency
Features

The best (and worst) stories from 3 years of Cointelegraph Magazine

Most Memorable Quotations

The witness [Sam Bankman-Fried] has an interesting way of responding to questions.

Lewis Kaplan, senior judge of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York

When it comes to illicit finance, crypto is not the enemy – bad actors are.

Cynthia Lummis, U.S. senator

I should say, I am not a lawyer, I am just trying to answer based on my recollection. […] At the time [at] FTX, certain customers thought accounts would be sent to Alameda.

Sam Bankman-Fried, former CEO of FTX

Without prejudging any one asset, the vast majority of crypto assets likely meet the investment contract test, making them subject to the securities laws.

Gary Gensler, chair of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

I do not believe there has been a single serious conversation regarding a settlement between Ripple […] and the SEC. The SEC is pissed and embarrassed and wants $770M worth of flesh.

John Deaton, attorney

He [Sam Bankman-Fried] thought he was going to take that money, and […] he would out-trade the market and put the money back and end up as a half-a-trillionaire, but it never works like that.

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital

Prediction of the Week 

Bitcoin beats S&P 500 in October as $40K BTC price predictions flow in

Bitcoin surfed $34,000 at the end of the week as attention turned to BTC price performance against macro assets. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD holding steady, preserving its early-week gains.

The largest cryptocurrency avoided significant volatility as the weekly and monthly closes a key moment for the October uptrend drew ever nearer.

I think Bitcoin will hang around this range for some time, popular pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades told X subscribers in one of several posts on Oct. 27. Roughly $33-35K is what Im looking at as a range. Eyes on potential sweeps of any of these levels for a quick trade, he wrote.

FUD of the Week 

UK passes bill to enable authorities to seize Bitcoin used for crime

Lawmakers in the United Kingdom have passed legislation allowing authorities to seize and freeze cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin if used for illicit purposes. Introduced in September 2022, the passed legislation aims to expand authorities ability to crack down on the use of cryptocurrency in crimes like cybercrime, scams and drug trafficking. One of the provisions of the bill permits the recovery of crypto assets used in crimes without conviction, as some individuals may avoid conviction by remaining remote.

Scammers create Blockworks clone site to drain crypto wallets

Phishing scammers have cloned the websites of crypto media outlet Blockworks and Ethereum blockchain scanner Etherscan to trick unsuspecting readers into connecting their wallets to a crypto drainer. A fake Blockworks site displayed a fake BREAKING news report of a supposed multimillion-dollar approvals exploit on the decentralized exchange Uniswap and encouraged users to visit a fake Etherscan website to rescind approvals. The fake Uniswap news article was posted on Reddit across several popular subreddits.

Kraken to suspend trading for USDT, DAI, WBTC, WETH and WAXL in Canada

Kraken will suspend all transactions related to Tether, Dai, Wrapped Bitcoin, Wrapped Ether and Wrapped Axelar in Canada in November and December. The suspensions may not surprise many Canadian cryptocurrency users, as they come on the heels of several other notable exchanges taking similar actions throughout 2023. OKX ceased operations in Canada in June after Binance announced its intention to do so in May.

5,050 Bitcoin for $5 in 2009: Helsinkis claim to crypto fame

Helsinki has a long and fascinating history with cryptocurrency, including the first exchange of Bitcoin for United States dollars.

Australias $145M exchange scandal, Bitget claims 4th, China lifts NFT ban: Asia Express

Australian police bust $145 million money laundering scam, Bitget gains market share in Q3, China unblocks NFTs, and more.

How blockchain games fared in Q3, Upland token on ETH: Web 3 Gamer

$2.3B tipped into Web3 games so far this year, ex-GTA devs’ studio teams up with Immutable, Brawlers to launch on Epic Games Store, and more.

Read More

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Uncategorized

February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

Published

22 hours ago

on

March 9, 2024

By

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

Published

2 days ago

on

March 8, 2024

By

Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

Published

2 days ago

on

March 8, 2024

By

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending