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Residential real estate market 2023-2027: A descriptive analysis of the five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation – Technavio

Residential real estate market 2023-2027: A descriptive analysis of the five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation – Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Jan. 12, 2023

NEW YORK, Jan. 12, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — According to Technavio, the global …

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1 year ago

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Residential real estate market 2023-2027: A descriptive analysis of the five forces model, market dynamics, and segmentation - Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Jan. 12, 2023

NEW YORK, Jan. 12, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- According to Technavio, the global residential real estate market size is estimated to grow by USD 514.41 billion from 2022 to 2027. The market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 5.07% during the forecast period. APAC held the largest share of the global market in 2022, and the market in the region is estimated to witness an incremental growth of 55%. For more Insights on market size, Request a sample report

Residential real estate market - Five Forces
The global cloud data warehouse market is fragmented, and the five forces analysis covers– 

  • Bargaining Power of Buyers 
  • The threat of New Entrants
  • Threat of Rivalry
  • Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • Threat of Substitutes
  • Interpretation of porter's five models helps to strategize the business, for entire details – buy the report!

Residential real estate market – Customer Landscape 

The report includes the market's adoption lifecycle, from the innovator's stage to the laggard's stage. It focuses on adoption rates in different regions based on penetration. Furthermore, the report also includes key purchase criteria and drivers of price sensitivity to help companies evaluate and develop their growth strategies.

Residential real estate market - Segmentation Assessment

Segment Overview

Technavio has segmented the market based on mode of booking (sales and rental/lease), type (apartments, condominiums, landed houses, and villas), and geography (APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa). 

  • The market share growth by the sales segment will be significant during the forecast period. The increasing demand for homes led by the growing global population and rapid urbanization is driving the growth of the segment. The segment is also driven by increasing investments in the residential sector.
Geography Overview

By geography, the global residential real estate market is segmented into APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa. The report provides actionable insights and estimates the contribution of all regions to the growth of the global residential real estate market.

  • APAC is estimated to contribute 55% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period. The growth of the regional market is driven by increasing population, rising standard of living, government initiatives for providing houses, and rising number of residential and commercial projects in countries such as China and India - Download a Sample Report

Residential real estate market – Market Dynamics

Key factor driving market growth

  • The market is driven by the growing housing sector across the globe.
  • Rapid urbanization and rising standard of living in emerging economies such as China, India, Thailand, and Indonesia have resulted in robust growth in the residential construction industry.
  • This has increased the construction of residential spaces such as single-family homes, condos, cooperatives, duplexes, townhouses, and multifamily residences.
  • In addition, the growing concept of integrated living is driving home buyers to invest in residential projects with modern facilities, including shopping malls with multiplexes, schools, hospitals, leisure clubs, office blocks, and parks.
  • All these factors are attracting significant investments in residential construction activities, which is driving the growth of the market in focus.

Leading trends influencing the market 

  • Increasing marketing initiatives by vendors are identified as the key trend in the market.
  • Vendors in the market are leveraging communication channels such as newspapers, magazines, and TV advertisements to increase awareness about their product and service offerings among customers.
  • Vendors are also making effective use of social media channels such as Instagram to showcase their existing and upcoming projects.
  • They are posting a variety of content on these channels with a focus on attracting new customers.
  • Such marketing initiatives are increasing the sales of products and services offered by vendors.
  • This trend is positively influencing the growth of the global residential real estate market.

Major challenges hindering market growth

  • Regulatory uncertainties are expected to challenge the growth of the market.
  • Changing regulatory norms can increase cost, time, risk, and uncertainties in residential construction projects.
  • Some of the new regulations across the world demand innovation in the design, development, and construction of new buildings, as well as the renovation of existing assets.
  • However, many real estate companies in the market are still in the early stages of managing their ESG compliance requirements, and very few companies are prepared to implement changes to meet new regulatory requirements immediately.
  • Such challenges are increasing the uncertainties in the market, which could negatively impact the growth of the vendors.

Driver, Trend, and Challenges are the factors of market dynamics that state about consequences & sustainability of the businesses, find some insights from a sample report!

What are the key data covered in this residential real estate market report?

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period
  • Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the residential real estate market between 2023 and 2027
  • Precise estimation of the size of the residential real estate market size and its contribution to the market in focus on the parent market
  • Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • Growth of the residential real estate market industry across APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa
  • A thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
  • Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of residential real estate market vendors

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Related Reports:

  • The Europe commercial real estate market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 5.55% between 2022 and 2027. The size of the market is forecast to increase by USD 80.59 billion. The growing aggregate private investment is notably driving the market growth, although factors such as increasing interest rates may impede the market growth.
  • The residential real estate market in Myanmar is estimated to grow/decline at a CAGR of 3.97% between 2022 and 2027. The size of the market is forecast to increase by USD 181.3 million. The growing residential sector in Myanmar is notably driving the market growth, although factors such as regulatory uncertainty may impede the market growth.

Residential Real Estate Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

145

Base year

2022

Historic period

2017-2021

Forecast period

2023-2027

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 5.07%

Market growth 2023-2027

USD 514.41 billion

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023 (%)

4.3

Regional analysis

APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa

Performing market contribution

APAC at 55%

Key countries

US, China, Japan, Germany, and UK

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

Al Habtoor Group LLC, Brigade Enterprises, Christies International Real Estate, Collabra Technology Inc., D. R. Hortons Inc., DLF Ltd., Engel and Volkers GmbH, Godrej and Boyce Manufacturing Co. Ltd., IJM Corp. Berhad, L and T Realty Ltd., Lennar Corp., OBEROI REALTY Ltd., Pultegroup Inc., Puravankara Ltd., Raubex Group Ltd., Savills Property Services (India) Pvt. Ltd., SOBHA Ltd., Sotheby International Realty Affiliates LLC, Sun Hung kai Properties Ltd., and Tata Sons Pvt. Ltd.

Market dynamics

Parent market analysis, market growth inducers and obstacles, fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and market condition analysis for the forecast period.

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Table of contents:

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market overview 
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Mode of Booking
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Type
    • Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 09: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem 
    • Exhibit 10: Parent market
    • Exhibit 11: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market definition 
    • Exhibit 12: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 13: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2022
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 14: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 15: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 16: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 17: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)

4 Historic Market Size

  • 4.1 Global residential real estate market 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 18: Historic Market Size – Data Table on Global residential real estate market 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.2 Type Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 19: Historic Market Size – Type Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.3 Mode of booking Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 20: Historic Market Size – Mode of booking Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.4 Geography Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 21: Historic Market Size – Geography Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)
  • 4.5 Country Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 22: Historic Market Size – Country Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ billion)

5 Five Forces Analysis

  • 5.1 Five forces summary 
    • Exhibit 23: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2022 and 2027
  • 5.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2022 and 2027
  • 5.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 25: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 26: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 27: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.6 Threat of rivalry 
    • Exhibit 28: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.7 Market condition 
    • Exhibit 29: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2022 and 2027

6 Market Segmentation by Mode of Booking

  • 6.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 30: Chart on Mode of Booking - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 31: Data Table on Mode of Booking - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.2 Comparison by Mode of Booking 
    • Exhibit 32: Chart on Comparison by Mode of Booking
    • Exhibit 33: Data Table on Comparison by Mode of Booking
  • 6.3 Sales - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 34: Chart on Sales - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 35: Data Table on Sales - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 36: Chart on Sales - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 37: Data Table on Sales - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.4 Rental/Lease - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 38: Chart on Rental/Lease - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 39: Data Table on Rental/Lease - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 40: Chart on Rental/Lease - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 41: Data Table on Rental/Lease - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.5 Market opportunity by Mode of Booking 
    • Exhibit 42: Market opportunity by Mode of Booking ($ billion)

7 Market Segmentation by Type

  • 7.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 43: Chart on Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 44: Data Table on Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.2 Comparison by Type 
    • Exhibit 45: Chart on Comparison by Type
    • Exhibit 46: Data Table on Comparison by Type
  • 7.3 Apartments and condominiums - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 47: Chart on Apartments and condominiums - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 48: Data Table on Apartments and condominiums - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 49: Chart on Apartments and condominiums - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 50: Data Table on Apartments and condominiums - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.4 Landed houses and villas - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 51: Chart on Landed houses and villas - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 52: Data Table on Landed houses and villas - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 53: Chart on Landed houses and villas - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 54: Data Table on Landed houses and villas - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.5 Market opportunity by Type 
    • Exhibit 55: Market opportunity by Type ($ billion)

8 Customer Landscape

  • 8.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 56: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

9 Geographic Landscape

  • 9.1 Geographic segmentation 
    • Exhibit 57: Chart on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 58: Data Table on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.2 Geographic comparison 
    • Exhibit 59: Chart on Geographic comparison
    • Exhibit 60: Data Table on Geographic comparison
  • 9.3 APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 61: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 62: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 63: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 64: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.4 North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 65: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 66: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 67: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 68: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.5 Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 69: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 70: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 71: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 72: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.6 South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 73: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 74: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 75: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 76: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.7 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 77: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 78: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 79: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 80: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.8 US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 81: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 82: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 83: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 84: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.9 China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 85: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 86: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 87: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 88: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.10 Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 89: Chart on Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 90: Data Table on Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 91: Chart on Japan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 92: Data Table on Japan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.11 Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 93: Chart on Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 94: Data Table on Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 95: Chart on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 96: Data Table on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.12 UK - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 97: Chart on UK - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 98: Data Table on UK - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ billion)
    • Exhibit 99: Chart on UK - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 100: Data Table on UK - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.13 Market opportunity by geography 
    • Exhibit 101: Market opportunity by geography ($ billion)

10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 10.1 Market drivers
  • 10.2 Market challenges
  • 10.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 102: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2022 and 2027
  • 10.4 Market trends

11 Vendor Landscape

  • 11.1 Overview
  • 11.2 Vendor landscape 
    • Exhibit 103: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 11.3 Landscape disruption 
    • Exhibit 104: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 11.4 Industry risks 
    • Exhibit 105: Impact of key risks on business

12 Vendor Analysis

  • 12.1 Vendors covered 
    • Exhibit 106: Vendors covered
  • 12.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 107: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 12.3 Al Habtoor Group LLC 
    • Exhibit 108: Al Habtoor Group LLC - Overview
    • Exhibit 109: Al Habtoor Group LLC - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 110: Al Habtoor Group LLC - Key offerings
  • 12.4 Christies International Real Estate 
    • Exhibit 111: Christies International Real Estate - Overview
    • Exhibit 112: Christies International Real Estate - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 113: Christies International Real Estate - Key offerings
  • 12.5 Collabra Technology Inc. 
    • Exhibit 114: Collabra Technology Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 115: Collabra Technology Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 116: Collabra Technology Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.6 D. R. Hortons Inc. 
    • Exhibit 117: D. R. Hortons Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 118: D. R. Hortons Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 119: D. R. Hortons Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 120: D. R. Hortons Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.7 DLF Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 121: DLF Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 122: DLF Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 123: DLF Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.8 Engel and Volkers GmbH 
    • Exhibit 124: Engel and Volkers GmbH - Overview
    • Exhibit 125: Engel and Volkers GmbH - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 126: Engel and Volkers GmbH - Key offerings
  • 12.9 Godrej and Boyce Manufacturing Co. Ltd.
    • Exhibit 127: Godrej and Boyce Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 128: Godrej and Boyce Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 129: Godrej and Boyce Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 130: Godrej and Boyce Manufacturing Co. Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.10 IJM Corp. Berhad 
    • Exhibit 131: IJM Corp. Berhad - Overview
    • Exhibit 132: IJM Corp. Berhad - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 133: IJM Corp. Berhad - Key offerings
  • 12.11 L and T Realty Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 134: L and T Realty Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 135: L and T Realty Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 136: L and T Realty Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.12 Lennar Corp. 
    • Exhibit 137: Lennar Corp. - Overview
    • Exhibit 138: Lennar Corp. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 139: Lennar Corp. - Key offerings
  • 12.13 Pultegroup Inc. 
    • Exhibit 140: Pultegroup Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 141: Pultegroup Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 142: Pultegroup Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 143: Pultegroup Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.14 Raubex Group Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 144: Raubex Group Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 145: Raubex Group Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 146: Raubex Group Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 147: Raubex Group Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.15 Savills Property Services (India) Pvt. Ltd.
    • Exhibit 148: Savills Property Services (India) Pvt. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 149: Savills Property Services (India) Pvt. Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 150: Savills Property Services (India) Pvt. Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.16 Sotheby International Realty Affiliates LLC
    • Exhibit 151: Sotheby International Realty Affiliates LLC - Overview
    • Exhibit 152: Sotheby International Realty Affiliates LLC - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 153: Sotheby International Realty Affiliates LLC - Key offerings
  • 12.17 Sun Hung kai Properties Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 154: Sun Hung kai Properties Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 155: Sun Hung kai Properties Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 156: Sun Hung kai Properties Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 157: Sun Hung kai Properties Ltd. - Segment focus

13 Appendix

  • 13.1 Scope of the report
  • 13.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 158: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 159: Exclusions checklist
  • 13.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 160: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 13.4 Research methodology 
    • Exhibit 161: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 162: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 163: Information sources
  • 13.5 List of abbreviations 
    • Exhibit 164: List of abbreviations
About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focuses on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

Published

1 day ago

on

March 9, 2024

By

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

Published

2 days ago

on

March 8, 2024

By

Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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2 days ago

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March 8, 2024

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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