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Research: After September bloodbath, historically bullish Q4 could ease the pain

Since the beginning of the year, the traditional financial market has been on a steady downward spiral.
The post Research: After September bloodbath,…

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Since the beginning of the year, the traditional financial market has been on a steady downward spiral. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have acted as a spark that ignited the problems that have been piling up since the beginning of the pandemic, devastating most assets in its way.

According to data from Bloomberg, almost $60 trillion has been wiped out from the total market cap of U.S. equity and fixed income since February. The current drawdown exceeds the market downturns seen at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 and during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008.

Graph showing the drawdown in total market capitalization of U.S. equity and fixed income bonds (Source: Bloomberg)

Bitcoin hasn’t been immune to the macro factors that have been devastating the tradfi markets. After the collapse of Terra (LUNA) in June, Bitcoin failed to recover and has been on a turbulent path of brief upswings and sharp corrections.

bitcoin btc price 2022 september
Graph showing Bitcoin’s price in 2022 (Source: CryptoSlate Bitcoin)

However, Bitcoin’s lack of upward momentum could be short-lived. September has historically been the worst month for Bitcoin — it failed to close the month in the green since 2016. Last month, Bitcoin closed the month at -3.1%, well below its monthly average of -5.01%.

October, on the other hand, has historically marked the beginning of a bullish quarter for the cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin’s monthly average close standing at 26.39%. It has also historically been the second-best month for Bitcoin, as it posted an accumulated total increase of 369.5% since 2009. The entire fourth quarter also saw historically positive closes.

bitcoin btc average monthly close september
Table showing the average and total monthly closes for Bitcoin from 2009 to 2022

A September bloodbath is a recurring theme in the world of traditional finance as well. Since 1946, the S&P 500 posted negative year-to-date returns in the third quarter 23 times. Out of the 23 negative third quarters the S&P 500 saw, around 70% were followed by a fourth quarter with positive returns. During a year with midterm elections, this number rose to 89%.

s&p 500 quarterly close market september
Table showing historical quarterly closes for the S&P 500 (Source: Hirsch Holdings Inc.)

If both markets continue their historical patterns, we could see the pressure decrease as October closes and a comeback of positive returns. However, with global macroeconomic factors continuing to worsen and putting more pressure on both markets, there’s an equally high probability that these patterns could break.

The post Research: After September bloodbath, historically bullish Q4 could ease the pain appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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Global Wages Take A Hit As Inflation Eats Into Paychecks

Global Wages Take A Hit As Inflation Eats Into Paychecks

The global inflation crisis paired with lackluster economic growth and an outlook…

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Global Wages Take A Hit As Inflation Eats Into Paychecks

The global inflation crisis paired with lackluster economic growth and an outlook clouded by uncertainties have led to a decline in real wages around the world, a new report published by the International Labour Organization (ILO) has found.

As Statista's Felix Richter reports, according to the 2022-23 Global Wage Report, global real monthly wages fell 0.9 percent this year on average, marking the first decline in real earnings at a global scale in the 21st century.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The multiple global crises we are facing have led to a decline in real wages.

"It has placed tens of millions of workers in a dire situation as they face increasing uncertainties,” ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo said in a statement, adding that “income inequality and poverty will rise if the purchasing power of the lowest paid is not maintained.”

While inflation rose faster in high-income countries, leading to above-average real wage declines in North America (minus 3.2 percent) and the European Union (minus 2.4 percent), the ILO finds that low-income earners are disproportionately affected by rising inflation. As lower-wage earners spend a larger share of their disposable income on essential goods and services, which generally see greater price increases than non-essential items, those who can least afford it suffer the biggest cost-of-living impact of rising prices.

“We must place particular attention to workers at the middle and lower end of the pay scale,” Rosalia Vazquez-Alvarez, one of the report’s authors said.

“Fighting against the deterioration of real wages can help maintain economic growth, which in turn can help to recover the employment levels observed before the pandemic. This can be an effective way to lessen the probability or depth of recessions in all countries and regions,” she said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/05/2022 - 20:00

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Metaverse comes in second place as Oxford’s word of the year

The term describing an internet-enabled virtual world lost to "goblin mode" in 2022 — "a type of behavior which is unapologetically self-indulgent, lazy,…

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The term describing an internet-enabled virtual world lost to "goblin mode" in 2022 — "a type of behavior which is unapologetically self-indulgent, lazy, slovenly, or greedy."

“Metaverse” has come in second to “goblin mode” as the Oxford University Press’ 2022 word of the year after the process was opened up to voters for the first time ever.

In a Dec. 4 announcement, Oxford Languages said the viral term “goblin mode” beat out “metaverse” and #IStandWith to become its 2022 word of the year. According to Oxford’s research, usage of the term metaverse “increased almost fourfold from the previous year in the Oxford Corpus,” driven in part by Facebook’s rebranding to Meta in October 2021.

Metaverse lost to goblin mode, which went viral in February, as it seemingly “captured the prevailing mood of individuals who rejected the idea of returning to ‘normal life’” following COVID-19 lockdowns being lifted in many areas. #IStandWith took third place in the contest, driven by social media hashtags including #IStandWithUkraine following Russia’s invasion of the country in February.

“As we grapple with relatively new concepts like hybrid working in the virtual reality space, metaverse is particularly pertinent to debates about the ethics and feasibility of an entirely online future," said Oxford Languages. "A worthy opponent to ‘goblin mode’, ‘metaverse’ gained voting traction with crypto communities and publications. We see the term continue to grow in use as more voices join the debate about the sustainability and viability of its future."

In the video pitch for ‘metaverse’ released in November, Oxford said the term dated back to “the science fiction novel Snow Crash by Neil Stephenson,” released in 1992.

More than 300,000 people cast votes between the three terms shortlisted by Oxford Languages.

Related: The metaverse is happening without Meta's permission

“NFT,” or nonfungible token, won Collins Dictionary’s contest for the word of 2021, while “vax” took first place as Oxford’s chosen word that the same year. The latest results seemingly represent a change in social media fervor around the crypto-related terms, which was reportedly falling in the first quarter of 2022.

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United Airlines stock has a 50% upside from here: Morgan Stanley

United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UAL) is keeping in the green on Monday in an otherwise down market after a Morgan Stanley analyst said 2023 could…

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United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UAL) is keeping in the green on Monday in an otherwise down market after a Morgan Stanley analyst said 2023 could be a “goldilocks” year for the air carrier.

United Airlines stock has upside to $67

Ravi Shanker sees upside in the airline holding company to $67 that translates to a near 50% premium on its current stock price.

He upgraded United Airlines stock to “overweight” this morning because he’s convinced that international travel will recover swiftly in 2023.

Earnings recovery post pandemic has kept pace with, if not led, peers and messaging has been very confident. We expect more normalised, just right conditions in 2023, stabilizing at level more favourable to earnings that market is pricing in.

Shanker expects continued leisure demand next year while business travel, he wrote, could exceed levels last seen before the COVID pandemic.

UAL has outperformed peers year-to-date

According to the Morgan Stanley analyst, prices will ease in 2023 as capacity returns. CASMxF trajectory was among other reasons cited for the bullish call.

United Airlines stock is roughly flat for the year at writing versus other major airline stocks in the red. Still, Shanker continues to see its current valuation as attractive. His note reads:

United Airlines Holdings Inc seems on track to exceed its 2023 guidance and to hit its 2026 guide issued eighteen months ago – something even the biggest UAL bulls may have considered difficult at the time.

In October, the Chicago-headquartered air carrier reported its financial results for the third quarter that handily topped Street estimates.

The post United Airlines stock has a 50% upside from here: Morgan Stanley appeared first on Invezz.

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