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Promotion convention boosts investment, exchange

Promotion convention boosts investment, exchange
PR Newswire
SHANGHAI, Nov. 5, 2022

SHANGHAI, Nov. 5, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — A report from chinadaily.com.cn:

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Promotion convention boosts investment, exchange

PR Newswire

SHANGHAI, Nov. 5, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- A report from chinadaily.com.cn:

Shanghai retains status as an ideal business destination for the long run.

Global investors continue to see Shanghai, a city known for innovation, diversity, inclusiveness and modernity, as an ideal business destination for the long run and are keen to expand investment in the city because of its bright future.

DuPont, a science and technology company based in the United States, which has its largest research and development site outside the US in Shanghai, said it would continue to invest in R&D and open innovation facilities and capabilities, further enhancing its engagement in the innovation ecosystem of the city.

Yi Zhang, regional president of DuPont Asia Pacific, who attends the 2022 Shanghai City Promotion Convention, said the city is not only open and inclusive, but also a fertile ground for innovation.

Over the years, DuPont has made great strides in Shanghai, benefiting from the city's quality and ever-improving business environment.

"DuPont strives to become a global innovation leader and a premier multi-industrial company and has always seen China as a very important market. Shanghai is home to DuPont China's headquarters," he said. "We believe that investing in Shanghai is investing in the future."

Global professional service provider Deloitte, which partnered with the Shanghai government to publish the Shanghai Foreign Investment Guidance and White Paper for Foreign Investment Environment, also has a positive attitude toward Shanghai's future because of the city's strong spirit of innovation.

Lu Ying, managing partner of Deloitte Eastern Region, said Shanghai and Deloitte, which has been in the city for more than 100 years, are witnesses of each others' development and innovation.

"Deloitte witnessed many innovation breakthroughs in Shanghai, for instance, the launch of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's sci-tech innovation board, or the STAR Market, the establishment of the Lingang Special Area, the construction of the Hongqiao International Opening-up Hub and efforts made by the Pudong New Area in developing into a leading force for China's socialist modernization.

"The city also witnessed Deloitte, as part of the city, promote product and service innovation and be a companion for our clients for bigger goals," said Lu.

Lu also noted that innovation is just one of many reasons for her to recommend Shanghai as an ideal business destination.

"Shanghai has the most complete industrial chains and the least limitations on market access. It boasts strong fundamental industries but also mapped into new frontiers like the metaverse. Its well-established infrastructure, strong supportive policies and professional industrial parks, inclusive and supportive business environment and premium living environment are all key factors needed by businesses," Lu said.

"For me, Shanghai is one of the few cities in the world which could satisfy needs and serve the imagination of global investors to the greatest extent possible."

Deloitte has expanded operation to 30 cities in China to serve the demand for auditing, taxation and advisory services.

It also tapped into emerging industries including digitalization, sustainable development and green, low-carbon development.

A prosperous city

Shanghai, at the forefront of China's reform and opening-up in the new era, has been committed to enhancing its business environment and service standards to support global investors.

Over the last 10 years, the city achieved outstanding results in promoting quality development with total industrial output exceeding 4 trillion yuan ($547.6 billion) in 2021. This year, it identified metaverse, smart terminals and digitalization as well as green transformation as three new engines for its future development.

Action plans released by the municipal government in early July predicted Shanghai would see the total value of its green industry exceed 500 billion yuan, the metaverse industry surpass 350 billion yuan and smart terminal and digitalization industry go over 700 billion yuan in the years to come.

Shanghai released a plan in January 2021 to build five new towns in its suburban areas, known as Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian and Nanhui, to optimize its development layout and to create new engines for future growth.

Those new towns each have an industrial development direction. For example, Fengxian will develop its healthcare and cosmetics sector and is set to better integrate urban life with industrial growth.

Shanghai is aiming to be an international innovation hub, and has been increasing capital and introducing supportive policies to bolster the R&D sector.

Between 2012 and 2021, Shanghai's R&D investment soared from 67.95 billion yuan to 181.98 billion yuan, and the ratio of expenditure on R&D in gross domestic product rose from 3.31 percent to 4.21 percent during the same period.

Shanghai also strives to improve urban life quality in fields such as healthcare and education. The average life expectancy of the population in Shanghai is 84.11 years, an increase of 1.7 years since 2012, said Shen Wei, Party secretary of the Education and Public Health Work Committee of the CPC Shanghai Municipal Committee.

Shanghai's long-term commitment became the most powerful engine to maintain development in a time of complex challenges and dynamic change.

In the first three quarters of the year, Shanghai certified 46 regional headquarters established by multinational companies and 17 foreign-funded research and development centers.

By the end of September, the city was home to the regional headquarters of 877 multinational corporations, as well as 523 foreign-funded R&D centers.

Recovery in progress

Shanghai experienced an economic slowdown in the first half of 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and uncertainties in the global market. The city recorded better-than-expected economic results though in the first nine months of 2022.

The city government said Shanghai's economy is on track for a V-shaped recovery in its major economic indicators in the third quarter, reflecting its strong resilience and vitality.

In the first nine months, Shanghai's GDP stood at 3.1 trillion yuan, a 1.4 percent decline year-on-year. While that was down from the same period a year ago, that figure represented an improvement of 4.3 percentage points over the year-to-year percentage change of the first six months.

Its industrial added value of enterprises with annual revenue of 20 million yuan or above grew 14.9 percent year-on-year.

The city also recorded recovery signals in areas such as consumption.

The new energy vehicle industry reported a 65.4 percent year-on-year increase in the third quarter.

From January to September, the new-generation of information technology industry and the biomedicine industry recorded a year-on-year growth of 13.8 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively.

Foreign trade maintained a two-digit growth rate for three consecutive months since July. The total volume of foreign trade increased 16.6 percent year-on-year.

In an effort to better manage market uncertainties and bolster business recovery, especially of hard-hit industries, Shanghai is setting more policies to boost the business environment and unleash its market potential. Shanghai's government announced on Sept 28 some 22 new measures, on top of the 50 measures released at the end of May and 21 measures in March, to bolster economic recovery in the city.

Companies in Shanghai have seen signs of recovery in the last few months. CBRE, a worldwide real estate services and investment company, said Shanghai's economy has been steadily revived, new momentum has been accumulated, and the level of opening-up has further improved.

"Positive trends can be seen in the commercial real estate sector where our company is located. Our latest data shows that office leasing demand in Shanghai in the third quarter rose more than 270 percent quarter-on-quarter, and was the largest in China," the company said.

Benefiting from Shanghai's sound service system and investment environment for foreign-funded enterprises, CBRE's professional real estate consulting services have maintained high-quality development. CBRE established its China headquarters in Shanghai in 2018 for the city's openness, innovation and inclusive environment.

Promoting Shanghai at CIIE

The 2022 Shanghai City Promotion Convention, an annual investment event during the China International Import Expo, opens on Sunday to showcase the charms of the city.

The 2022 session features welcome speeches, keynote speeches, release of policies, and a new projects signing ceremony. Government officials of Shanghai, executives of global companies, representatives of international organizations and research institutes are attending the event. Before the convention, promotional activities were organized around the world in the cities of Los Angeles, the US; Frankfurt, Germany; Osaka, Japan; and London, the United Kingdom.

"The Shanghai City Promotion Convention, held at the same period with the CIIE for three consecutive years, fully demonstrates Shanghai's confidence and determination in opening up to the outside world," said Zhang from DuPont.

Over the last few years, the annual CIIE has played a vital role in attracting foreign investors to Shanghai. The trade fair not only offered a platform for global exhibitors to sell their products, but also allowed enterprises to look into the Chinese market and observe the latest market trends.

"The annual CIIE is an international event that brings together the world's most high-quality and dynamic trade investors to China and Shanghai. It is a major measure taken by China to promote a new round of high-level opening-up and economic globalization," Zhu Yi, deputy director of the Shanghai Commission of Commerce, said while attending a promotional event on Oct 20.

Italian healthcare equipment developer DiaSorin decided to construct a production plant in Baoshan district of Shanghai after taking part at the 2020 CIIE. Its new plant will begin operations next year.

The company also plans to move its R&D center to Shanghai in 2023 to better serve the local market. Looking ahead, Shanghai will amplify the spillover effects of the CIIE to attract more quality foreign investment projects to the area.

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/promotion-convention-boosts-investment-exchange-301669549.html

SOURCE chinadaily.com.cn

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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