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Price Analysis April 10: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK

Price Analysis April 10: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK

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Most major cryptocurrencies have turned down from their 50-day moving averages, suggesting that bears are attempting to resume the downtrend.

The number of Bitcoin whales holding at least 1,000 BTC has been rising for the past few months, according to a report by Glassnode. The report also highlights that the accumulation continued during the recent slump on March 12 and 13 when Bitcoin’s price dropped below $4,000 levels. This suggests that the whales are bullish on Bitcoin due to the upcoming halving event in May. 

Canadian asset manager 3iQ has launched “The Bitcoin Fund,” on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), which is tied to Bitcoin. Tyler Winklevoss said that this was a historic moment as it was “the first public Bitcoin fund listed on a major stock exchange.” The fund offers an opportunity to the investors to add Bitcoin to their portfolio without worrying about cryptocurrency security or custody.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

As the panic in the global markets subsides, Bitcoin has become more and more uncorrelated to every other asset class. In the past ten days, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and the S&P 500 has turned negative. On the other hand, the correlation of Bitcoin with the major cryptocurrencies has risen sharply. 

Though Bitcoin has not rallied during the current crisis, we like that it has behaved like a mature asset and has held its own. This is likely to attract institutional investors who might want to take exposure to an uncorrelated asset like Bitcoin, which has proven itself during one of the worst crises ever.  

Today, the total crypto market capitalization has dipped below $200 billion, which shows bear pressure. Let’s study the charts of the major cryptocurrencies to spot the critical support levels to watch out for. 

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break out of the 50-day simple moving average for the past three days. This attracted profit booking by the short-term traders who had entered at lower levels. It also gave a shorting opportunity to the bears who are attempting to resume the downtrend. 

BTC–USD daily chart

BTC–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

The 20-day exponential moving average ($6,834) is likely to act as strong support on the downside. If the BTC/USD pair rebounds from close to this level, it will signal strength and increase the possibility of a breakout of the 50-day SMA. Above $7,500, a rally to $8,000 and above it to $9,000 is possible. 

Contrary to our assumption, if the bears sink and sustain the pair below the 20-day EMA, a drop to $6,500 and below it $5,660.47 is likely. 

The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the relative strength index has dipped below the midpoint, which suggests a consolidation in the near-term. For now, the traders can keep the stop loss on the long positions at $5,600.

ETH/USD

Though Ether (ETH) surged on April 6, the bulls could not replicate the same move to push it above the 50-day SMA. This suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the level.

ETH–USD daily chart

ETH–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

Currently, the ETH/USD pair has dipped to the 20-day EMA ($152), which is likely to act as strong support. If the pair rebounds off this level, the bulls will make another attempt to carry it above the 50-day SMA ($174). 

If successful, a new uptrend with a target objective of $250 will start. There is a minor resistance at $208.50 but we expect it to be crossed.

Contrary to our assumption, if the pair dips below the 20-day EMA, a drop to $117.090 is likely. Therefore, the stops on the long positions can be kept at $135.

XRP/USD

Though XRP closed (UTC time) above the 50-day SMA on April 08, the bulls could not build upon this advantage. This shows that the bears are aggressively defending the 50-day SMA. Currently, the bears are attempting to sink the altcoin below the 20-day EMA ($0.183).

XRP–USD daily chart

XRP–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

If successful, the XRP/USD pair can dip to the strong support of $0.15983. A break below this level will indicate an advantage to the bears.

Conversely, if the pair rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again attempt to start a new uptrend towards $0.25. For now, the traders can retain the stops on the long positions at $0.155.

BCH/USD

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) scaled above the 50-day SMA on April 8 and 9 but the bulls failed to sustain the breakout. This shows a lack of buyers at higher levels. The bears will now try to grab the advantage by sinking the altcoin below the 20-day EMA ($238).

BCH–USD daily chart

BCH–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

If the bears sustain the BCH/USD pair below the 20-day EMA, a drop to $200 and below it to $166 is likely. The traders can retain the stops on the long positions at $197. 

On the other hand, if the pair bounces off the current levels or from $200, the bulls will again attempt to push it above $281. 

BSV/USD

Bitcoin SV (BSV) climbed to $227 on April 9, which was just below our first target objective of $233.314. However, the bulls could not sustain the higher levels and the altcoin has turned down sharply.

BSV–USD daily chart

BSV–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

The failure of the bulls to hold on to the higher levels is a huge negative. It suggests profit booking by the short-term traders and selling by aggressive bears. The BSV/USD pair has dropped to the 20-day EMA at $181.7. 

If the bears sustain the price below the 20-day EMA, a drop to $146.96 is possible. On the other hand, if the pair bounces off the current levels, it will increase the possibility of a rally to $268.842. Hence, the traders can retain the stop loss on the long positions at $165.

LTC/USD

Though Litecoin (LTC) stayed above the critical level of $43.67 for three days, the bulls could not propel it above the 50-day SMA. This attracted selling, with the bears attempting to sink the altcoin below the 20-day EMA ($42.25).

LTC–USD daily chart

LTC–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, a drop to $35.8582 is likely. This is an important support level to watch for because if this cracks, the decline can extend to $30.

However, if the LTC/USD pair rebounds off the current levels or $35.8582, the bulls will make another attempt to scale it above the 50-day SMA ($48.15). If successful, a rally to $63 is likely. The traders can keep the stop loss on the long positions at $35.

EOS/USD

EOS has turned down from the 50-day SMA ($2.82), which shows that the bears are aggressively defending this resistance level. If the altcoin dips below the recent breakout level of $2.4001, a drop to $2.0632 is likely.

EOS–USD daily chart

EOS–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

Both the moving averages have flattened out and the RSI has dropped below the midpoint, which suggests a few days of range-bound action.

The trend will turn in favor of the bulls if they can drive the EOS/USD pair above the 50-day SMA. In such a case, a rally to $3.1802 and then to $3.86 is possible. The traders can protect their long positions with the stop loss at $2.

BNB/USD

The bulls failed to drive Binance Coin (BNB) above the 50-day SMA for four consecutive days. This has resulted in selling by the short-term bulls and the aggressive bears. A break below the 20-day EMA ($13.70) will strengthen the bears.

BNB–USD daily chart

BNB–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

If the BNB/USD pair sustains below the 20-day EMA, a drop to the next support at $11.2552 is likely. If this level also cracks, the pair will become hugely negative.

On the other hand, if the pair bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the sentiment is to buy the dips. The bulls will then attempt to push the price towards $17.50 and above it to the target objective of $21.50. Therefore, the traders can hold their long positions with the stop loss at $11.

XTZ/USD

Tezos (XTZ) broke above the downtrend line on April 8, which triggered our buy suggested in the previous analysis. However, the altcoin has turned down from the 50-day SMA, which is a negative sign.

XTZ–USD daily chart

XTZ–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

The bears will not attempt to sink the XTZ/USD pair below the 20-day EMA ($1.84). If successful, a drop to $1.65 and below that $1.4453 is possible. Therefore, the traders can keep the stop loss on the long positions at $1.40.

Conversely, if the pair rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will signal to buy on dips. If the price breaks above $2.185, the pair is likely to rally to $2.75 and then to $3.33.

LINK/USD

The sharp recovery from the recent lows has helped Chainlink (LINK) become the tenth largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. The 20-day EMA ($2.61) has turned up and the RSI is in the positive zone, which suggests that bulls have the upper hand.

LINK–USD daily chart

LINK–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview

If the LINK/USD pair bounces off the 50-day SMA ($3.04) or from the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to resume the up move. A break above the overhead resistance at $3.5948, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent fall, is likely to be a huge positive.

Above this level, a rally to $4.9762 is possible. Though the bears might try to arrest the up move at $4.2023, we expect this level to be crossed.

Our bullish view will be invalidated if the pair drops below both the moving averages. Such a move can drag the price back to $2 levels. However, we give this a low probability of occurring.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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Spread & Containment

Sylvester researchers, collaborators call for greater investment in bereavement care

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater…

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MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater risk for many adverse outcomes, including mental health challenges, decreased quality of life, health care neglect, cancer, heart disease, suicide, and death. Now, in a paper published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers sound a clarion call for greater investment, at both the community and institutional level, in establishing support for grief-related suffering.

Credit: Photo courtesy of Memorial Sloan Kettering Comprehensive Cancer Center

MIAMI, FLORIDA (March 15, 2024) – The public health toll from bereavement is well-documented in the medical literature, with bereaved persons at greater risk for many adverse outcomes, including mental health challenges, decreased quality of life, health care neglect, cancer, heart disease, suicide, and death. Now, in a paper published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers sound a clarion call for greater investment, at both the community and institutional level, in establishing support for grief-related suffering.

The authors emphasized that increased mortality worldwide caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, suicide, drug overdose, homicide, armed conflict, and terrorism have accelerated the urgency for national- and global-level frameworks to strengthen the provision of sustainable and accessible bereavement care. Unfortunately, current national and global investment in bereavement support services is woefully inadequate to address this growing public health crisis, said researchers with Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine and collaborating organizations.  

They proposed a model for transitional care that involves firmly establishing bereavement support services within healthcare organizations to ensure continuity of family-centered care while bolstering community-based support through development of “compassionate communities” and a grief-informed workforce. The model highlights the responsibility of the health system to build bridges to the community that can help grievers feel held as they transition.   

The Center for the Advancement of Bereavement Care at Sylvester is advocating for precisely this model of transitional care. Wendy G. Lichtenthal, PhD, FT, FAPOS, who is Founding Director of the new Center and associate professor of public health sciences at the Miller School, noted, “We need a paradigm shift in how healthcare professionals, institutions, and systems view bereavement care. Sylvester is leading the way by investing in the establishment of this Center, which is the first to focus on bringing the transitional bereavement care model to life.”

What further distinguishes the Center is its roots in bereavement science, advancing care approaches that are both grounded in research and community-engaged.  

The authors focused on palliative care, which strives to provide a holistic approach to minimize suffering for seriously ill patients and their families, as one area where improvements are critically needed. They referenced groundbreaking reports of the Lancet Commissions on the value of global access to palliative care and pain relief that highlighted the “undeniable need for improved bereavement care delivery infrastructure.” One of those reports acknowledged that bereavement has been overlooked and called for reprioritizing social determinants of death, dying, and grief.

“Palliative care should culminate with bereavement care, both in theory and in practice,” explained Lichtenthal, who is the article’s corresponding author. “Yet, bereavement care often is under-resourced and beset with access inequities.”

Transitional bereavement care model

So, how do health systems and communities prioritize bereavement services to ensure that no bereaved individual goes without needed support? The transitional bereavement care model offers a roadmap.

“We must reposition bereavement care from an afterthought to a public health priority. Transitional bereavement care is necessary to bridge the gap in offerings between healthcare organizations and community-based bereavement services,” Lichtenthal said. “Our model calls for health systems to shore up the quality and availability of their offerings, but also recognizes that resources for bereavement care within a given healthcare institution are finite, emphasizing the need to help build communities’ capacity to support grievers.”

Key to the model, she added, is the bolstering of community-based support through development of “compassionate communities” and “upskilling” of professional services to assist those with more substantial bereavement-support needs.

The model contains these pillars:

  • Preventive bereavement care –healthcare teams engage in bereavement-conscious practices, and compassionate communities are mindful of the emotional and practical needs of dying patients’ families.
  • Ownership of bereavement care – institutions provide bereavement education for staff, risk screenings for families, outreach and counseling or grief support. Communities establish bereavement centers and “champions” to provide bereavement care at workplaces, schools, places of worship or care facilities.
  • Resource allocation for bereavement care – dedicated personnel offer universal outreach, and bereaved stakeholders provide input to identify community barriers and needed resources.
  • Upskilling of support providers – Bereavement education is integrated into training programs for health professionals, and institutions offer dedicated grief specialists. Communities have trained, accessible bereavement specialists who provide support and are educated in how to best support bereaved individuals, increasing their grief literacy.
  • Evidence-based care – bereavement care is evidence-based and features effective grief assessments, interventions, and training programs. Compassionate communities remain mindful of bereavement care needs.

Lichtenthal said the new Center will strive to materialize these pillars and aims to serve as a global model for other health organizations. She hopes the paper’s recommendations “will cultivate a bereavement-conscious and grief-informed workforce as well as grief-literate, compassionate communities and health systems that prioritize bereavement as a vital part of ethical healthcare.”

“This paper is calling for healthcare institutions to respond to their duty to care for the family beyond patients’ deaths. By investing in the creation of the Center for the Advancement of Bereavement Care, Sylvester is answering this call,” Lichtenthal said.

Follow @SylvesterCancer on X for the latest news on Sylvester’s research and care.

# # #

Article Title: Investing in bereavement care as a public health priority

DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00030-6

Authors: The complete list of authors is included in the paper.

Funding: The authors received funding from the National Cancer Institute (P30 CA240139 Nimer) and P30 CA008748 Vickers).

Disclosures: The authors declared no competing interests.

# # #


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Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says “Copper’s Time Is Now”

Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says "Copper’s Time Is Now"

After languishing for the past two years in a tight range despite recurring…

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Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says "Copper's Time Is Now"

After languishing for the past two years in a tight range despite recurring speculation about declining global supply, copper has finally broken out, surging to the highest price in the past year, just shy of $9,000 a ton as supply cuts hit the market; At the same time the price of the world's "other" most important mined commodity has diverged, as iron ore has tumbled amid growing demand headwinds out of China's comatose housing sector where not even ghost cities are being built any more.

Copper surged almost 5% this week, ending a months-long spell of inertia, as investors focused on risks to supply at various global mines and smelters. As Bloomberg adds, traders also warmed to the idea that the worst of a global downturn is in the past, particularly for metals like copper that are increasingly used in electric vehicles and renewables.

Yet the commodity crash of recent years is hardly over, as signs of the headwinds in traditional industrial sectors are still all too obvious in the iron ore market, where futures fell below $100 a ton for the first time in seven months on Friday as investors bet that China’s years-long property crisis will run through 2024, keeping a lid on demand.

Indeed, while the mood surrounding copper has turned almost euphoric, sentiment on iron ore has soured since the conclusion of the latest National People’s Congress in Beijing, where the CCP set a 5% goal for economic growth, but offered few new measures that would boost infrastructure or other construction-intensive sectors.

As a result, the main steelmaking ingredient has shed more than 30% since early January as hopes of a meaningful revival in construction activity faded. Loss-making steel mills are buying less ore, and stockpiles are piling up at Chinese ports. The latest drop will embolden those who believe that the effects of President Xi Jinping’s property crackdown still have significant room to run, and that last year’s rally in iron ore may have been a false dawn.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, on Friday there were fresh signs that weakness in China’s industrial economy is hitting the copper market too, with stockpiles tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange surging to the highest level since the early days of the pandemic. The hope is that headwinds in traditional industrial areas will be offset by an ongoing surge in usage in electric vehicles and renewables.

And while industrial conditions in Europe and the US also look soft, there’s growing optimism about copper usage in India, where rising investment has helped fuel blowout growth rates of more than 8% — making it the fastest-growing major economy.

In any case, with the demand side of the equation still questionable, the main catalyst behind copper’s powerful rally is an unexpected tightening in global mine supplies, driven mainly by last year’s closure of a giant mine in Panama (discussed here), but there are also growing worries about output in Zambia, which is facing an El Niño-induced power crisis.

On Wednesday, copper prices jumped on huge volumes after smelters in China held a crisis meeting on how to cope with a sharp drop in processing fees following disruptions to supplies of mined ore. The group stopped short of coordinated production cuts, but pledged to re-arrange maintenance work, reduce runs and delay the startup of new projects. In the coming weeks investors will be watching Shanghai exchange inventories closely to gauge both the strength of demand and the extent of any capacity curtailments.

“The increase in SHFE stockpiles has been bigger than we’d anticipated, but we expect to see them coming down over the next few weeks,” Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone. “If the pace of the inventory builds doesn’t start to slow, investors will start to question whether smelters are actually cutting and whether the impact of weak construction activity is starting to weigh more heavily on the market.”

* * *

Few have been as happy with the recent surge in copper prices as Goldman's commodity team, where copper has long been a preferred trade (even if it may have cost the former team head Jeff Currie his job due to his unbridled enthusiasm for copper in the past two years which saw many hedge fund clients suffer major losses).

As Goldman's Nicholas Snowdon writes in a note titled "Copper's time is now" (available to pro subscribers in the usual place)...

... there has been a "turn in the industrial cycle." Specifically according to the Goldman analyst, after a prolonged downturn, "incremental evidence now points to a bottoming out in the industrial cycle, with the global manufacturing PMI in expansion for the first time since September 2022." As a result, Goldman now expects copper to rise to $10,000/t by year-end and then $12,000/t by end of Q1-25.’

Here are the details:

Previous inflexions in global manufacturing cycles have been associated with subsequent sustained industrial metals upside, with copper and aluminium rising on average 25% and 9% over the next 12 months. Whilst seasonal surpluses have so far limited a tightening alignment at a micro level, we expect deficit inflexions to play out from quarter end, particularly for metals with severe supply binds. Supplemented by the influence of anticipated Fed easing ahead in a non-recessionary growth setting, another historically positive performance factor for metals, this should support further upside ahead with copper the headline act in this regard.

Goldman then turns to what it calls China's "green policy put":

Much of the recent focus on the “Two Sessions” event centred on the lack of significant broad stimulus, and in particular the limited property support. In our view it would be wrong – just as in 2022 and 2023 – to assume that this will result in weak onshore metals demand. Beijing’s emphasis on rapid growth in the metals intensive green economy, as an offset to property declines, continues to act as a policy put for green metals demand. After last year’s strong trends, evidence year-to-date is again supportive with aluminium and copper apparent demand rising 17% and 12% y/y respectively. Moreover, the potential for a ‘cash for clunkers’ initiative could provide meaningful right tail risk to that healthy demand base case. Yet there are also clear metal losers in this divergent policy setting, with ongoing pressure on property related steel demand generating recent sharp iron ore downside.

Meanwhile, Snowdon believes that the driver behind Goldman's long-running bullish view on copper - a global supply shock - continues:

Copper’s supply shock progresses. The metal with most significant upside potential is copper, in our view. The supply shock which began with aggressive concentrate destocking and then sharp mine supply downgrades last year, has now advanced to an increasing bind on metal production, as reflected in this week's China smelter supply rationing signal. With continued positive momentum in China's copper demand, a healthy refined import trend should generate a substantial ex-China refined deficit this year. With LME stocks having halved from Q4 peak, China’s imminent seasonal demand inflection should accelerate a path into extreme tightness by H2. Structural supply underinvestment, best reflected in peak mine supply we expect next year, implies that demand destruction will need to be the persistent solver on scarcity, an effect requiring substantially higher pricing than current, in our view. In this context, we maintain our view that the copper price will surge into next year (GSe 2025 $15,000/t average), expecting copper to rise to $10,000/t by year-end and then $12,000/t by end of Q1-25’

Another reason why Goldman is doubling down on its bullish copper outlook: gold.

The sharp rally in gold price since the beginning of March has ended the period of consolidation that had been present since late December. Whilst the initial catalyst for the break higher came from a (gold) supportive turn in US data and real rates, the move has been significantly amplified by short term systematic buying, which suggests less sticky upside. In this context, we expect gold to consolidate for now, with our economists near term view on rates and the dollar suggesting limited near-term catalysts for further upside momentum. Yet, a substantive retracement lower will also likely be limited by resilience in physical buying channels. Nonetheless, in the midterm we continue to hold a constructive view on gold underpinned by persistent strength in EM demand as well as eventual Fed easing, which should crucially reactivate the largely for now dormant ETF buying channel. In this context, we increase our average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,090/toz to $2,180/toz, targeting a move to $2,300/toz by year-end.

Much more in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 14:25

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Government

Moderna turns the spotlight on long Covid with new initiatives

Moderna’s latest Covid effort addresses the often-overlooked chronic condition of long Covid — and encourages vaccination to reduce risks. A digital…

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Moderna’s latest Covid effort addresses the often-overlooked chronic condition of long Covid — and encourages vaccination to reduce risks. A digital campaign debuted Friday along with a co-sponsored event in Detroit offering free CT scans, which will also be used in ongoing long Covid research.

In a new video, a young woman describes her three-year battle with long Covid, which includes losing her job, coping with multiple debilitating symptoms and dealing with the negative effects on her family. She ends by saying, “The only way to prevent long Covid is to not get Covid” along with an on-screen message about where to find Covid-19 vaccines through the vaccines.gov website.

Kate Cronin

“Last season we saw people would get a flu shot, but they didn’t always get a Covid shot,” said Moderna’s Chief Brand Officer Kate Cronin. “People should get their flu shot, but they should also get their Covid shot. There’s no risk of long flu, but there is the risk of long-term effects of Covid.”

It’s Moderna’s “first effort to really sound the alarm,” she said, and the debut coincides with the second annual Long Covid Awareness Day.

An estimated 17.6 million Americans are living with long Covid, according to the latest CDC data. About four million of them are out of work because of the condition, resulting in an estimated $170 billion in lost wages.

While HHS anted up $45 million in grants last year to expand long Covid support initiatives along with public health campaigns, the condition is still often ignored and underfunded.

“It’s not just about the initial infection of Covid, but also if you get it multiple times, your risks goes up significantly,” Cronin said. “It’s important that people understand that.”

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