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Price analysis 9/4: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, SOL, TON
Bitcoin price is range-bound but several major altcoins such as XRP are showing signs of a potential breakdown.
The United States’…
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Bitcoin price is range-bound but several major altcoins such as XRP are showing signs of a potential breakdown.
The United States' equities markets are on a recovery path. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) surged 2.50% last week to record its best week since June. Even though Bitcoin (BTC) also attempted a relief rally, the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. In the end, Bitcoin finished the week with a marginal loss of 0.5%.
One of the main reasons Bitcoin gave back its gains was because the Securities and Exchange Commission delayed its decision on all spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications. However, this has not dented the expectations of analysts.
In a recent note, JPMorgan analysts said that the regulator will eventually approve several Bitcoin ETFs.
The short-term price action in Bitcoin remains in flu. But that has not deterred the long-term investors who have held onto their stockpile. Glassnode data shows that the currently mined supply dormant for three years or more has hit a new high of 40.538%.
Could Bitcoin break out of its range in the next few days? What are the important levels to watch out for? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index broke above the moving averages on Aug. 29, indicating that bulls have started a strong relief rally.
If buyers sustain the price above the moving averages, it will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on minor dips. That will enhance the prospects of a rally above the overhead resistance at 4,607. If this level is conquered, the index will try to rise to 4,650 and subsequently to 4,800.
Resuming the uptrend is likely to be a difficult task as the bears will try to yank the price below the moving averages. If they do that, the pair may slump to the strong support at 4,325. The bears will have to break this level to start a new downtrend.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) bounced off the downtrend line on Aug. 30 and 31, indicating that the bulls have flipped the level into support.
The bulls will next try to propel the price above 104.45 and start a rally to the overhead resistance at 106. This level is likely to witness aggressive selling by the bears because a break above it will indicate that the downtrend may be over. The index could then ri to 108.
The important support to watch for on the downside is the downtrend line. If this support crumbles, the index ma descend to the 50-day SMA (102.41) and eventually to the critical support at 100.82.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin is trading near the support of the large range between $24,800 and $31,000. When the price trades inside a range, bulls generally purchase the drop near the support and sell close to the resistance.
The $24,800 level will witness an intense battle between the bulls and the bears. If this level gives way, the selling is likely to accelerate and the BTC/USDT pair could nosedive to the crucial support at $20,000. There is a minor support at $24,000, but it may not hold for long.
Another possibility is that the price turns up from the current level. If bulls surmount the barrier at $26,833, the pair could accelerate to the 50-day SMA ($28,221). Such a move will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the $24,800 to $31,000 range for even longer.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) dipped below the strong support at $1,626 on Sep. 1 but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels.
The bulls are trying to salvage the situation but are struggling to start a rebound. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels. Both moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating that the bears remain in command.
If sellers drag the price below $1,600, the ETH/USDT pair could dive to the Aug. 17 intraday low of $1,550. This is the pivot level in the near term because a fall below it may open the gates for a decline to $1,368.
The first sign of strength will be a break above the 20-day EMA ($1,684). The pair could then rise to the overhead resistance at $1,750.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) has been trading below the breakdown level of $220 for the past few days but the bears have not been able to build upon their advantage.
The failure to sink the price below the psychological level of $200 could embolden the bulls who will try to start a recovery. The first hurdle on the upside is at $220 and then at the resistance line. Buyers will have to thrust the price above the resistance line to indicate that the downtrend may be ending.
Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below $200, it will suggest the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The BNB/USDT pair then risks sliding to the next major support at $183.
XRP price analysis
The bears yanked XRP (XRP) price below $0.50 on Sep. 1 but they could not sustain the lower levels as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.
The bears kept up the pressure and have not allowed the bulls to start a strong rebound off the $0.50 level. This increases the possibility of a downside break. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair is in danger of plunging to $0.41.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA ($0.53), it will signal that the bulls are attempting a comeback. The pair may then shoot up to $0.56. Buyers will have to overcome this barrier to indicate the start of a new up-move to $0.65.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been consolidating between $0.24 and $0.28 for the past few days, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.26) and the RSI below 38 suggest a slight advantage to the bears. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a drop to $0.24 increases. A break below this level may start the next leg of the downtrend to $0.22 and subsequently to $0.20.
Contrarily, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the ADA/USDT pair could challenge the resistance at the 50-day SMA ($0.28). If this level is scaled, the pair is likely to rise to $0.32.
Related: Bitcoin ETF applications: Who is filing and when the SEC may decide
Dogecoin price analysis
Buyers tried to push Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on Sep. 2 but the bears held their ground.
That keeps the DOGE/USDT pair stuck between the 20-day EMA and the important support at $0.06. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative zone indicate advantage to sellers. If the price breaks below $0.06, the selling could intensify and the pair may plummet to the next support at $0.055.
If bulls want to prevent the decline, they will have to quickly drive the price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair can jump to the 50-day SMA ($0.07) and later surge to $0.08.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) is in a strong corrective phase. Buyers are trying to start a relief rally but it is likely to face selling at the downtrend line.
If the price turns down sharply from the current level or the downtrend line, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That may pull the price to $18.32 and thereafter to $16.
This negative view could invalidate in the near term if bulls kick the price above the downtrend line. The SOL/USDT pair can then attempt a rally to $22.30 where the bears will likely mount a strong defense.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin’s (TON) rally has stalled near the overhead resistance at $2.07 but a minor positive is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears. This suggests that the bulls are holding on to their positions.
The overbought levels on the RSI suggest a possible correction or consolidation in the near term. The important support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($1.61) because a break below it could drag the price to $1.53 and later to the 50-day SMA ($1.40).
On the upside, the bulls will have to clear the hurdle at $2.07. If they manage to do that, the TON/USDT pair could indicate the resumption of the uptrend. The pair may then attempt a rally to the $2.40-2.60 overhead zone.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
sp 500 equities cryptocurrency bitcoin btc xrp bnb etf
Uncategorized
February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.
The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250
Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too
Total employment data
4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
- Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
- High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
- Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.
recession unemployment covid-19 fed federal reserve mortgage rates recession recovery unemploymentUncategorized
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Last month we though that the January…
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Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush.
What happened? Let's take a closer look.
On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.
Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.
Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K, a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!
Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.
In the past month the Biden department of goalseeking stuff higher before revising it lower, has revised the following data sharply lower:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 30, 2023
- Jobs
- JOLTS
- New Home sales
- Housing Starts and Permits
- Industrial Production
- PCE and core PCE
To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).
And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...
... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...
... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.
While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.
But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).
This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.
There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).
Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!
But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!
The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!
Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...
... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!
This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...
... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.
Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.
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