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Price analysis 9/25: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, TON, SOL
The strength in the United States dollar index could keep Bitcoin and select altcoins under pressure in the near term.
Bitcoin’s…
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The strength in the United States dollar index could keep Bitcoin and select altcoins under pressure in the near term.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) weakness on Sep. 24 shows that the bears remain in control. Sellers are trying to pull the price below $26,000 but the bulls are likely to defend the level with vigor. Buyers are trying to achieve a positive monthly close for Bitcoin in September for the first time since 2016.
If they can pull it off, it will be a major sentiment booster as October generally favors the buyers. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has seen a negative monthly close in October only on two occasions, in 2014 and 2018. However, Bitcoin bulls will find it difficult to maintain the momentum if macroeconomic headwinds persist.
Another risk to the cryptocurrency recovery may come from the strength in the greenback, which has risen for ten straight weeks, its longest winning streak since 2014. The United States dollar index (DXY) has also formed a golden cross, indicating further potential upside in the near term.
Will the U.S. dollar extend its gains or witness a short-term correction? Can Bitcoin bulls hold off the bear pressure in the last week of September? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index turned down sharply from the downtrend line and broke below the moving averages on Sep. 15. This started a downward move, which has reached the crucial support at 4,325.
The 20-day exponential moving average (4,422) has started to turn down and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the oversold territory, indicating that bears have the edge. If the price maintains below 4,325, the index will complete a bearish head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. This negative setup has a target objective of 4,043.
If bulls want to prevent the fall, they will have to quickly drive the price above the 20-day EMA. That could attract further buying and the bulls will then attempt to kick the price above the downtrend line. If they manage to do that, the index has a good chance of retesting the local high at 4,607.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The U.S. dollar index bounced off the 20-day EMA (104.85) on Sep. 20, indicating that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.
The up-move is likely to hit a wall at 106. This is the key level to keep an eye on in the near term. If the price turns down from this resistance but bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will enhance the prospects of a rally above 106. The next resistance on the upside is at 108.
Sellers will have to yank the price back below the 20-day EMA if they want to weaken the bullish momentum. The index could then drop to 104.40 and later to the 50-day simple moving average (103.35).
Bitcoin price analysis
The uncertainty from the inside-day candlestick pattern on Sep. 22 and 23 resolved to the downside on Sep. 24. This suggests that the bears have asserted their supremacy.
The sellers will try to strengthen their position further by pulling the price to the solid support at $24,800. This remains the key level to watch out for in the near term as the bulls are expected to defend it with all their might. If the $24,800 support gives way, the BTC/USDT pair could start a downward move to $20,000.
Time is running out for the bulls. If they want to start a meaningful recovery, they will have to push and sustain the price above the moving averages. That will open the doors for a retest of the overhead resistance at $28,143.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) has been gradually slipping toward the pivotal level at $1,531, suggesting a lack of buying support from the bulls.
Although the downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to sellers, the RSI is showing signs of forming a bullish divergence. This suggests that the selling pressure could be reducing. This increases the likelihood of a bounce off $1,531.
If bulls shove the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,616), it will signal a range-bound action between $1,531 and $1,746 for a few days. This view will invalidate if bears sink and sustain the ETH/USDT pair below $1,531. The pair could then plummet to $1,368.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) has been swinging between $220 and $203 for the past few days. In a range, traders generally buy near the support and sell close to the resistance.
Both moving averages are sloping down, indicating advantage to bears but the RSI is trying to form a bullish divergence. This suggests that the bearish momentum may be weakening. Buyers are likely to defend the $203 level with vigor.
If the price rises from the current level or bounces off $203, it will suggest that the range-bound action may continue for some more time. Sellers will need to tug the price below the critical support at $203 to take charge. The BNB/USDT pair could then plunge to $183.
XRP price analysis
After staying above the 20-day EMA ($0.50) for a few days, XRP (XRP) tumbled below the level on Sep. 24. This suggests that the bears have gained the upper hand.
XRP price could fall to the uptrend line, which is expected to act as a strong support. If the price rebounds off the uptrend line, the bulls will again try to shove the price above the 20-day EMA. If they do that, it will signal aggressive buying at lower levels. The pair may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($0.53).
Contrarily, if the uptrend line fails to hold, XRP price could first slump to $0.46 and thereafter to the formidable support at $0.41. This level is likely to attract strong buying by the bulls.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) dropped to the critical support at $0.24 on Sep. 25, indicating that the bears have maintained their pressure.
A minor advantage in favor of the bulls is that the RSI is forming a bullish divergence. The bulls will have to quickly shove the ADA/USDT pair above the downtrend line to reduce the risk of a breakdown below $0.24. If they can pull it off, the bearish descending triangle will be rendered invalid and that could boost the price to $0.29.
Instead, if bears drag ADA price below $0.24, it will complete the bearish setup. That could start a downward move toward $0.22 and subsequently to the pattern target of $0.19.
Related: How much is Bitcoin worth today?
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) is stuck inside a tight range between $0.06 and the 20-day EMA ($0.06). Typically, a volatility squeeze is followed by an expansion in volatility but it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout.
If the price turns up off the current level, the bulls will again try to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to $0.07 and later sprint to $0.08. The bears are expected to sell near this level.
Alternatively, if the range resolves to the downside with a break below $0.06, it will indicate that bears have seized control. DOGE price may then nosedive to the next major support at $0.055.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) turned down sharply from the overhead resistance at $2.59 on Sep. 20 and continued lower, indicating that the bulls are booking profits.
The first support on the downside is at the 20-day EMA ($2.11). If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips. The bulls will then again try to push the price to $2.59.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price skids below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls are losing their grip. The TON/USDT pair could first dip to the psychological level of $2 and later to the 50-day SMA ($1.72). A deeper correction is likely to delay the next leg of the up-move.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($19.53) for the past few days, indicating a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.
The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint indicate a balance between supply and demand. On the upside, the bulls will have to thrust the price above the 50-day SMA ($20.80) to signal the start of a recovery to $22.30.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the bears are back in command. The SOL/USDT pair could then retest the important support at $17.33. If this level snaps, the pair may collapse to $14.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
sp 500 cryptocurrency bitcoin btc xrp bnb
Uncategorized
February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.
The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250
Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too
Total employment data
4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
- Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
- High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
- Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.
recession unemployment covid-19 fed federal reserve mortgage rates recession recovery unemploymentUncategorized
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Last month we though that the January…
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Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush.
What happened? Let's take a closer look.
On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.
Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.
Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K, a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!
Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.
In the past month the Biden department of goalseeking stuff higher before revising it lower, has revised the following data sharply lower:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 30, 2023
- Jobs
- JOLTS
- New Home sales
- Housing Starts and Permits
- Industrial Production
- PCE and core PCE
To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).
And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...
... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...
... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.
While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.
But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).
This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.
There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).
Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!
But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!
The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!
Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...
... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!
This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...
... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.
Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.
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February Employment Situation
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