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Price analysis 8/30: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, SOL, TON, DOT, MATIC
Bitcoin and altcoins are struggling to hold the gains accrued earlier this week, a potential sign that the price breakout was just a response to Grayscale’s…
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Bitcoin and altcoins are struggling to hold the gains accrued earlier this week, a potential sign that the price breakout was just a response to Grayscale’s victory over the SEC.
Bitcoin led the cryptocurrency markets higher on Aug. 29 following Grayscale’s victory in the lawsuit against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. However, the rally could not be sustained, as analysts cautioned that the victory did not guarantee the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund.
Still, the victory may prove to be bullish for Grayscale. Glassnode analysts said in an X (formerly Twitter) post on Aug. 30 that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) could return to a premium next year. It is important to note that GBTC has been trading at a discount to the spot Bitcoin price for the past two and a half years.
In the short term, even though the S&P 500 Index is on a path of recovery and the U.S. Dollar Index has turned down in the near term, the crypto markets are not able to sustain the higher levels. This shows that traders have maintained their focus on crypto-specific news.
Could bulls defend the support levels in Bitcoin and altcoins? Will that lead to a stronger recovery soon? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin’s range resolved to the upside with a sharp breakout on Aug. 29. This move indicates that the price is likely to oscillate inside the large range between $24,800 and $31,000 for a few days.
The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $27,168 is flattening out and the relative strength index (RSI) is just below the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing.
Buyers will try to defend the breakout level of $26,833. If they succeed, it will signal that the bulls have flipped the level into support. The BTC/USDT pair may first rise to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $28,689 and thereafter attempt a rally to $31,000.
If bears want to trap the aggressive bulls, they will have to pull the price below $26,833. If they do that, it will indicate that the bears are selling on every recovery attempt. The pair could then retest the strong support at $24,800.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) once again rebounded off the crucial support at $1,626 on Aug. 28, indicating that the bulls are buying the dips.
The momentum picked up on Aug. 29, and the bulls propelled the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,716). This suggests that the ETH/USDT pair could swing between $1,626 and $1,816 for some more time.
The price turned back below the 20-day EMA on Aug. 30, signaling that bears have not yet given up. If the price maintains below the 20-day EMA, the pair could tumble to $1,626. Contrarily, if the price turns up and climbs back above the 20-day EMA, the pair may reach the overhead resistance at $1,816.
BNB price analysis
After tight range trading near $220 for a few days, BNB (BNB) surged higher on Aug. 29. The relief rally is facing resistance at the 50-day SMA ($235) as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.
The 20-day EMA ($224) is flattening out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating that the downward selling pressure is reducing. If the price turns up from the current level, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line. This level may again attract aggressive selling by the bears.
On the downside, if the price slides below $220, it will indicate that the bears remain in control. The pair could then slump to the Aug. 22 intraday low of $203.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) has been trading between $0.50 and $0.56 for the past few days. This suggests that the bulls are buying near the support and the bears are selling close to the resistance.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.55) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that the bears have the upper hand. Sellers will try to sink the price below the strong support at $0.50. If they manage to do that, the XRP/USDT pair may plummet to $0.41.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $0.50, the pair may extend its stay inside the tight range for some more time. Buyers will have to shove and sustain the price above $0.56 to signal the start of a sustained recovery. The pair may then rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.64).
Cardano price analysis
The bulls pushed Cardano (ADA) above $0.28 on Aug. 29, but they could not sustain the higher levels. That kept the price below the resistance at $0.28.
This shows that the price remains stuck inside the range between $0.24 and $0.28. The next support is at the uptrend line. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will suggest that every minor dip is being purchased. That will enhance the prospects of a rally above $0.28. Above this level, the ADA/USDT pair could soar to $0.32.
Instead, if the price dives below the uptrend line, it will signal that the bears are trying to make a comeback. The pair could then skid to the vital support at $0.24.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) reached the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on Aug. 29, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the price above it.
If the price turns down sharply from the current level, it will suggest that bears are selling on rallies. The DOGE/USDT pair may then consolidate between the 20-day EMA and the support at $0.06.
Alternatively, if the pair does not give up much ground from the current level, it will suggest that the bulls are maintaining their buying pressure. That could open the gates for a potential rally to $0.08.
Solana price analysis
Solana’s (SOL) recovery hit a roadblock at the 20-day EMA ($21.77) on Aug. 29, indicating that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
The bears will once again try to tug the price to $19.35. If this level cracks, the SOL/USDT pair could start a downward move to $18 and then to $16.
The bulls are likely to have other plans. They will try to build upon the recovery by pushing the price above the overhead resistance at $22.30. If they can pull it off, the pair may rise to the 50-day SMA ($23.59). If the price turns down from this level, the pair may remain range-bound between the 50-day SMA and $19.35 for some time.
Related: Why is Dogecoin price up today?
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) soared above the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern at $1.53 on Aug. 29. This signals a potential trend change.
Typically, after a breakout, the price turns down and retests the breakout level. If the price bounces off $1.53, it will suggest that the bulls have flipped the level into support. That could start an up move toward the pattern target of $1.91. If this resistance is scaled, the TON/USDT pair could reach $2.07.
If the bears want to prevent the rally, they will have to quickly sink the price back below $1.53. Such a move could trap the aggressive bulls, resulting in a long liquidation. The pair may then slump to $1.25.
Polkadot price analysis
Polkadot (DOT) broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($4.64) on Aug. 29, but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels.
The bears pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on Aug. 30. This indicates that the bears have not given up and are viewing the recoveries as a selling opportunity. The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory signal possible range-bound action in the near term.
If the price breaks below $4.50, the DOT/USDT pair may swing between the 20-day EMA and $4.22 for some time. On the other hand, a break and close above the 20-day EMA could propel the pair to the overhead resistance at $5.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) is facing stiff resistance in the zone between $0.60 and $0.65 as seen from the long wick on the Aug. 29 candlestick.
The price turned down on Aug. 30, suggesting that the MATIC/USDT pair could consolidate in a large range between $0.51 and $0.65 for a while. The price action inside the range is likely to remain random and volatile.
If bears want to seize control, they will have to drag the price below $0.51. That could resume the downtrend with the next support at $0.45. On the upside, a break and close above the 50-day SMA ($0.67) could signal that the bulls are in the driver’s seat.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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Uncategorized
February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
unemployment pandemic unemploymentUncategorized
Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.
The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250
Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too
Total employment data
4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
- Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
- High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
- Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.
recession unemployment covid-19 fed federal reserve mortgage rates recession recovery unemploymentUncategorized
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Last month we though that the January…
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Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush.
What happened? Let's take a closer look.
On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.
Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.
Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K, a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!
Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.
In the past month the Biden department of goalseeking stuff higher before revising it lower, has revised the following data sharply lower:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 30, 2023
- Jobs
- JOLTS
- New Home sales
- Housing Starts and Permits
- Industrial Production
- PCE and core PCE
To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).
And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...
... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...
... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.
While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.
But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).
This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.
There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).
Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!
But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!
The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!
Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...
... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!
This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...
... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.
Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.
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