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Price analysis 11/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, TON, LINK, MATIC

Bitcoin is struggling to clear the hurdle at $35,000, signaling the possibility of a short-term pullback.
Bitcoin (BTC) skyrocketed…



Bitcoin is struggling to clear the hurdle at $35,000, signaling the possibility of a short-term pullback.

Bitcoin (BTC) skyrocketed 28.5% in October, its second-best monthly gain of the year behind the 40% rally in January. After the strong showing in October, the next question on investors’ minds is, could the bullish momentum continue and Bitcoin extend its recovery going forward?

Bernstein said in a note on Oct. 31 that Bitcoin could rally to $150,000 by 2025. The firm believes that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund by the first quarter of 2024 and the ETFs may attract up to 10% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

While the long-term looks bullish, the volatility may pick up in the near term. On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators believes that the bullish momentum is weakening and may result in a retest of $33,000 but before that, they anticipate an attempt at $36,000.

Will Bitcoin break above or below the current range? Could altcoins rally when Bitcoin consolidates?

Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

The bulls tried to propel Bitcoin above $35,280 on Nov. 1 but the bears did not relent. This suggests profit-booking at higher levels.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The relative strength index (RSI) is still in the overbought zone, indicating that the consolidation may extend for a few more days. The important level to watch on the upside is $35,280 and on the downside is $33,390.

If the price breaks below the support, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the 20-day exponential moving average ($32,012). This level may witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.

On the upside, a break and close above the overhead resistance of $35,280 will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The pair may then climb to $40,000.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) has been holding above the breakout level of $1,746 but the bulls are struggling to start the next leg of the uptrend. This suggests that the bears are trying to get back in the game.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The crucial level to watch on the downside is $1,746. If bulls flip this level into support, it will indicate that the sentiment has turned positive. That will enhance the prospects of a break above $1,865. The ETH/USDT pair may then surge to $2,000. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense at this level.

If bears want to gain the upper hand, they will have to tug the price back below the 20-day EMA ($1,723). That may catch the aggressive bulls on the wrong foot, leading to long liquidation. The pair may then slump to the 50-day SMA ($1,648).

BNB price analysis

The bulls are finding it difficult to maintain BNB (BNB) above $230, indicating that buying dries up at higher levels.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The BNB/USDT pair has turned down and reached the breakout level of $223. Buyers are likely to defend the zone between $223 and the 20-day EMA ($220). If the price rebounds off this zone, the bulls will again attempt to kick the pair toward the overhead resistance of $235.

On the contrary, if the price continues lower and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are back in control. The pair may then tumble to the 50-day SMA ($214).

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) broke and closed above the overhead resistance of $0.56 on Oct. 30. This indicates the start of a new up-move.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.54) has turned up and the RSI is in the overbought zone, indicating that the bulls have a slight edge. Buyers will try to build upon the advantage and push the price to $0.67.

Conversely, the bears will try to pull the price back below the breakout level of $0.56 and the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the XRP/USDT pair may fall to the 50-day SMA ($0.52).

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) has been in a strong recovery. After hesitating for a few days near $34, the bulls asserted their supremacy and rose above the resistance on Oct. 30.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buying continued and the bulls overcame the obstacle at the overhead resistance at $38.79 on Nov. 1. If buyers maintain the price above $38.79, the SOL/USDT pair could next attempt a rally to $48.

While the trend remains up, the overbought levels on the RSI suggest that the rally is overheated in the near term. That may make it difficult for the bulls to continue the up-move. A break and close below $38.79 may tempt short-term traders to book profits. That may sink the pair to $34.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) turned down from the minor resistance at $0.30 on Oct. 31, indicating that the short-term traders are booking profits.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The nearby support on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($0.28). Buyers are expected to defend this level with vigor. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying at lower levels. The ADA/USDT pair may then once again reach $0.30.

This view will be invalidated if the price continues lower and plummets below the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that the pair may oscillate between $0.24 and $0.30 for a while longer.

Dogecoin price analysis

The bulls have been struggling to sustain Dogecoin (DOGE) above the $0.07 resistance, suggesting that higher levels are attracting sellers.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls bought the dip to the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Oct. 31 as seen from the long tail on the candlestick but they could not build upon this strength. Sellers are again trying to yank the price back below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it will suggest that bulls are losing their grip. The DOGE/USDT pair may then slump toward $0.06.

Alternatively, if the price once again rebounds off the 20-day EMA with strength, it will suggest that bulls are buying on dips. The bulls will then again try to clear the overhead hurdle at $0.07 and start the up-move to $0.08.

Related: Bitcoin crash pre-halving? Stablecoin metric that marked 2019 top flashes warning

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) has formed a range between $1.89 and $2.31 for the past few days. The price turned down from $2.27 on Oct. 31 indicating that the bears continue to sell near the resistance.

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The TON/USDT pair has slipped to the immediate support at the moving averages. If the price rebounds off this level with force, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. That will improve the prospects of a rally above the overhead resistance at $2.31. The pair may then surge to $2.59.

Contrarily, if the price continues lower and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days.

Chainlink price analysis

The bulls have been attempting to propel and sustain Chainlink (LINK) above the overhead resistance at $11.50 but the long wick on the candlesticks shows that the bears are active at higher levels.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The drop on Nov. 1, indicates that the bears are trying to pull the price to the 20-day EMA ($9.80), which is an important level to watch out for. If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will again try to push the LINK/USDT pair above $11.50. If they do that, the pair may rise to $13.50 and then to $15.

On the other hand, sellers will be back in the driver’s seat if they sink and sustain the price below $9.50. That may open the doors for a further fall to the 50-day SMA ($8.06).

Polygon price analysis

Buyers tried to propel Polygon (MATIC) above the overhead resistance of $0.66 on Oct. 31 but the bears held their ground.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This suggests that the MATIC/USDT pair could consolidate in a tight range between $0.60 and $0.66 for some time. The rising moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory indicate advantage to the bulls.

If buyers shove the price above $0.66, the pair could start the next leg of the relief rally toward $0.77. However, the bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to sink the price back below $0.60 and trap the aggressive bulls.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…



By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.



Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250

Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  


3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 

From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:


In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…



Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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