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Price analysis 10/27: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, TON, LINK, MATIC

Bitcoin is taking a breather after this week’s strong rally, but select altcoins may be getting ready to breakout over the next few days.

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Bitcoin is taking a breather after this week’s strong rally, but select altcoins may be getting ready to breakout over the next few days.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading above $33,600 for the past two days, indicating that the bulls are not rushing to the exit. After a sharp rally, if the price does not give up much ground, it may cause FOMO and ignite another round of buying.

That could push the markets further into overbought territory. However, such rallies are rarely sustainable. They eventually turn down and retest the breakout levels. Hence, Bitcoin’s drop to $32,000 can not be ruled out.

The rally of the past few days pushed Bitcoin’s dominance to 54%, its highest level in 30 months. The rise in market dominance shows that Bitcoin is leading the charge higher, which is a positive sign. This suggests that traders are favorably viewing the cryptocurrency space and select altcoins may join the party soon.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Veteran trader Peter Brandt said in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Oct. 26 that Bitcoin’s bottom is in but he warns that new all-time highs may not happen until the third quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, Brandt predicts Bitcoin to enter a “chop fest.”

Will Bitcoin enter a corrective phase over the next few days or continue its upward march? Will altcoins join the party higher?

Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin is facing resistance at $35,000 but the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the buyers may soon try to resume the up-move.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The risk to a further rise is that the relative strength index (RSI) remains in the overbought area. This indicates the possibility of a minor correction or consolidation in the near term. If the price slides below $33,679, the BTC/USDT pair could retest $32,400 and then $31,000.

However, it is not certain that the overbought levels on the RSI will cause a correction. Sometimes, during a trend change from bearish to bullish, the RSI tends to remain in overbought territory for a long time. That is because the smart buyers continue to accumulate on every intraday dip.

In this case, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $35,280, it will signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend. The pair may then skyrocket to $40,000.

Ether price analysis

Ether’s (ETH) long wick on the Oct. 26 candlestick shows that the bears are aggressively protecting the minor overhead resistance at $1,855.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA ($1,674) and the RSI near the overbought zone indicate that bulls have the upper hand. If the price turns up from $1,746, the bulls will again try to shove the ETH/USDT pair above $1,855. If this level is surmounted, the pair may skyrocket toward the psychologically important level of $2,000.

If bears want to prevent the up-move, they will have to quickly send the price back below the breakout level of $1,746. The pair may then tumble to the 20-day EMA.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) turned down from $235 on Oct. 24, indicating that the bears are active at this level. The sellers tried but failed to sustain the price below the strong support at $223.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This indicates that buyers are fiercely attempting to defend the support at $223. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, the BNB/USDT pair could once again try to rise above the overhead resistance at $235. If that happens, the pair may climb to $250 and subsequently to $265.

Contrarily, if the price once again turns down from $235, it will suggest that bears continue to sell at higher levels. A slide below $223 will tilt the advantage back in favor of the bears. The pair may then oscillate between $203 and $235 for a while longer.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) has been witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the overhead resistance of $0.56.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears are trying to pull the price to the 20-day EMA ($0.52) which is an important level to keep an eye on. If the price sharply rebounds off this level, it will suggest that every minor dip is being bought. The bulls will then again try to kick the price above $0.56.

If they succeed, it will signal the start of a new up-move. The XRP/USDT pair could then soar to $0.71. This positive view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and plunges below the 50-day SMA ($0.51). That will indicate a range-bound action between $0.46 and $0.56 in the near term.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) has been trading near the pattern target of $32.81 for the past few days. The bulls have not ceded ground to the bears, indicating that they anticipate another leg higher.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The RSI remains in the overbought zone, indicating that the SOL/USDT pair may spend some more time in consolidation or witness a minor dip. If the price stays above $30, the possibility of a rally to $38.79 increases.

On the other hand, if the price skids below $30, the bears will attempt to yank the price to the 20-day EMA ($27.20). If this support gives way, it will signal that the sellers are back in the game.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) has been trading above the $0.28 level for the past few days but the bulls haven’t been able to start a strong relief rally.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers tried to start a new up-move on Oct. 26 but the bears sold at higher levels as seen from the long wick on the candlestick. Encouraged by this, the sellers will try to tug the price back below the breakout level of $0.28. If they can pull it off, the ADA/USDT pair may slump to the 20-day EMA ($0.26).

Instead, if the price turns up from $0.28 and rises above $0.30, it will signal that the bulls have flipped the level into support. The pair may then start its northward march toward $0.32. This level may act as a stiff barrier but if cleared, the next stop is likely to be $0.38.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been in a strong recovery for the past few days, indicating aggressive buying by the bulls.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers pushed the price above the nearest resistance of $0.07 on Oct. 26 but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels. The bears are trying to pull the price back below $0.07 on Oct. 27. If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could slide to the 20-day EMA ($0.06).

On the contrary, if the price turns up from $0.07, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and every minor dip is being purchased. That could propel the price to $0.08.

Related: FLOKI price soars 140% in a week — Are memecoins like DOGE, PEPE finally waking up?

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) found support at the moving averages in the past few days but the bulls failed to start a strong rebound off it.

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

That may have attracted selling by the bears who have dragged the price back below the moving averages on Oct. 27. The TON/USDT pair may slide to the crucial support at $1.89. Such a move will suggest that the pair may consolidate between $1.89 and $2.31 for a few days.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up sharply from the current level, it will indicate that the bulls are buying on minor dips. That will improve the prospects of a break above $2.31. The pair may then surge to $2.59.

Chainlink price analysis

Chainlink (LINK) has been facing selling near the $11.50 mark as seen from the long wick on the candlesticks of the past few days.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A minor positive is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the buyers are in no hurry to book profits as they anticipate the uptrend to continue. Sometimes, when an asset breaks out from a long consolidation, it may remain in the overbought zone for an extended period. That is a possibility with the LINK/USDT pair.

The important support to watch on the downside is $9.50 and then the 20-day EMA ($8.97). Buyers are expected to defend this zone with vigor.

Polygon price analysis

Polygon (MATIC) broke above the $0.60 resistance on Oct. 22 but the bulls are struggling to maintain the up-move. This suggests hesitation to continue buying at higher levels.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The important level to watch on the downside is $0.60. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will signal that the bulls have flipped $0.60 into support. That will increase the likelihood of a break above $0.67. The MATIC/USDT pair may then soar to $0.77.

Meanwhile, the bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to sink the price back below the breakout level of $0.60. If they do that, several aggressive bulls may get trapped and the pair may plummet to the 20-day EMA ($0.57).

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Walmart Hits Record High After Earnings Beat, Despite Soft Guidance, Warning About “Choiceful” Consumers Spending Less

Walmart Hits Record High After Earnings Beat, Despite Soft Guidance, Warning About "Choiceful" Consumers Spending Less

Walmart shares hit…

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Walmart Hits Record High After Earnings Beat, Despite Soft Guidance, Warning About "Choiceful" Consumers Spending Less

Walmart shares hit a new all-time high after the largest bricks and mortar retailer reported earnings that beat expectations despite providing guidance that was marginally softer, as choosy shoppers nevertheless kept buying in its stores.

Here is what the company report for the final quarter of 2023:

  • Adjusted EPS $1.80 (excluding impact, net of tax, from a net gain of $0.23 on equity and other investments) vs. $1.71 y/y, beating estimate of $1.65
  • Revenue $173.39 billion, +5.7% y/y, beating estimate $170.66 billion
    • Total US comparable sales ex-gas +3.9%, estimate +3.2%
    • Walmart-only US stores comparable sales ex-gas +4%, estimate +3.12%
    • Sam's Club US comparable sales ex-gas +3.1%, estimate +2.99%
  • Change in US E-Commerce sales +17%, beating estimate +15.5%
  • Adjusted operating income $7.25 billion, beating estimate $6.79 billion

Of the metrics reported, however, the most important one is that Walmart’s same-store sales (ex fuel), rose 4% YoY for US stores (of which net sales was 3.% and eCommerce added 17%). Wall Street was expecting 3.1% so the number was clearly a beat and was driven by "strength in grocery, health and wellness, offset by softness in general merchandise", and was the result of higher transactions (+4.3%) offsetting average ticket prices, which dropped 0.3% YoY. Still, the number is a far cry from the 8.3% comp sales a year ago.

In keeping with the noted softness in general merchandise, the world’s largest retailer delivered softer guidance for the current fiscal year, as it expects consumers to be selective in their spending:

  • For full-year 2025, WMT sees
    • Net sales +3% to +4%, slower than growth from the prior year, and adjusted EPS $6.70 to $7.12, slightly disappointing vs the median consensus estimate of $7.09
    • Capital expenditures approximately 3.0% to 3.5% of net sales
  • For Q1, 2025, WMT sees sees adjusted EPS $1.48 to $1.56.

Discussing the quarter, CEO Doug McMillan said that "we crossed $100 billion in eCommerce sales and drove share gains as our customer experience metrics improved, evenduring our highest volume days leading up to the holidays"

Commenting on customer "selectivity", CFO John Rainey said that “they are being choiceful" as consumers continue to spend less per trip but have been shopping frequently, adding that the company expects some resilience to continue for the rest of the year.

There was more good news: Walmart is gaining share in nearly every category, according to Rainey, with e-commerce among the factors driving growth as the company trims losses associated with handling online orders. Furthermore, while deflation is still a possibility, the company expects it to be less likely based on what it observed during the latest quarter.

That said, while grabbing more spending with low-priced groceries and other basics, Walmart has been cautious in recent months about the health of the consumer amid persistent inflation and higher interest rates. As noted above, US consumers have been buying cheaper products and seeking value, as they pull back from discretionary products like general merchandise. That has resulted in softer sales for some retailers, including Target Corp. and Home Depot Inc. Other big-box retailers are set to report their quarterly earnings in the coming weeks.

As Bloomberg notes, the recent moderation in inflation is another challenge for Walmart and other retail operators that have passed down price increases to consumers over the past few years. This has contributed to higher dollar sales for companies, followed by an uptick in revenue during the pandemic when people bought more groceries and home goods. Such increases are slowing overall, though inflation remains stubborn in some areas like groceries and shelter.

Similar to all of its major competitors, Walmart has been beefing up automation in warehouses and stores in recent years, while remodeling locations to make them more modern. Pickup and delivery businesses continue to expand, driving share gains among upper-income households and fueling growth of the Walmart+ membership program.

Separately, Walmart said it agreed to buy smart-TV maker Vizio Holding Corp. for about $2.3 billion. The deal would accelerate the retailer’s advertising business, called Walmart Connect, and help Walmart and its advertisers engage more with customers. Walmart has been expanding Walmart Connect and other nonretail businesses that have faster growth and better margins. The deal announcement confirmed a Wall Street Journal report from last week. Vizio shares soared 15% in Tuesday premarket trading.

As for WMT, the Bentonville, after the stock gained 16% over the past year, it jumped another 5.7% on Tuesday rising to a new all time high as investors were clearly satisfied with what they saw.

Full investor presentation below (pdf link)

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/20/2024 - 10:17

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Estimating US Recession Risk Using Economic Data For States

What are the choices for monitoring and estimating recession risk? Slightly lower than the number of stars in the universe. Ok, I’m exaggerating, but…

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What are the choices for monitoring and estimating recession risk? Slightly lower than the number of stars in the universe. Ok, I’m exaggerating, but not much. The good news: the search for robust, relatively reliable indicators narrows the field dramatically. But there’s always more to learn, in part because the supply of data sets is vast, increasingly so. Which brings me to another indicator that looks promising: state coincident indexes.

Every state’s economy is, in some degree, unique, although the gravitational pull of the national economy casts a long shadow. Tracking each state economy separately, and then aggregating the results, provides a different spin on the US business cycle compared with national indicators. Think of it as a bottom-up model vs. the standard top-down approach via US retail sales, industrial production, etc.

Conveniently, the Philly Fed publishes monthly coincident indicators for each state. Aggregating the 50 signals into a composite index provides a somewhat different view of the US business cycle vs. traditional top-down metrics. There are several ways to process the numbers – my preference, shown in the chart below, is a 3-month-change model. If a state’s 3-month change is negative (positive), the signal is negative (positive). Summing the negatives and positives provides a national profile. The current reading is 0.48 — in other words, 48% of the states are posting negative 3-month changes for their respective coincident indicator. As shown below, the composite reading maps fairly closely with NBER-defined downturns, and so the current signal is issuing a warning, albeit a warning that has yet to provide what might be thought of as passing the point of no return. But it’s close.

The readings vary from 0 (no negative 3-month changes) to 1.0 (all 50 states are reporting negative 3-month changes). A quick review of the historical record suggests that the US is on the verge of slipping into recession.

But before we ring the alarm bell, there are some caveats to consider. First, a similarly high reading 20-plus years ago turned out to be a false signal. The next couple of months will likely determine if a repeat performance is brewing, or not.

Second, no one indicator is flawless, as we’ve learned over the last couple of years – especially in recent history, when pandemic-related events have created no shortage of macro surprises.

Another reason to reserve judgment, at least for now: a range of other business cycle indicators tracked in The US Business Cycle Risk Report (a sister publication of CapitalSpectator.com) continue to show a clear growth bias. But as reported in this week’s issue, there are some nascent signs of softer economic activity and so it’s possible that the coincident state indicators are an early warning that the tide is shifting.

The most reliable methodology for estimating recession risk in real time is building an ensemble model that combines various modeling applications that are complimentary. Although any one model will excel at a given point in time, quite often the best-performing indicator changes through time. To minimize the risk that’s inherent in any one signal, The US Business Cycle Risk Report crunches the numbers on multiple indicators, which has proven to be close to optimal for balancing the need for timely signals that minimize false signaling.

Despite the caveats, the coincident state model adds another dimension to the mix and provides some complimentary input to The US Business Cycle Risk Report’s existing suite of indicators. Accordingly, I’ll be adding the composite state coincident data to the newsletter’s weekly updates.

The next batch of coincident state updates for January is scheduled for later this month. Meantime, I’ll be carefully reviewing the incoming data for fresh clues that support or reject the suggestion that trouble’s brewing via the state coincident indicators.


How is recession risk evolving? Monitor the outlook with a subscription to:
The US Business Cycle Risk Report


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Air Canada Says Freight Demand Beginning To Improve

Air Canada Says Freight Demand Beginning To Improve

By Eric Kulisch of FreightWaves

Air Canada expects the slow recovery in cargo volume…

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Air Canada Says Freight Demand Beginning To Improve

By Eric Kulisch of FreightWaves

Air Canada expects the slow recovery in cargo volume that began in the fourth quarter to quicken in 2024, aided by the addition of two more freighter aircraft, but doesn’t anticipate gains in pricing power, Mark Galardo, executive vice president for network planning and revenue management, said Friday.

The cargo division within Air Canada (TSX: AC) currently operates five converted and two factory-built Boeing 767-300 freighters. It is scheduled this year to receive two cargo jets converted from passenger configuration, but delivery of a third plane has been delayed until 2025 because of lingering supply chain and labor challenges faced by aerospace manufacturing companies, said Galardo on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call.

The company nonetheless expects cargo capacity to increase 6% to 8% this year with the addition of the two freighters and more passenger aircraft that also carry cargo. The converted freighters are retired Air Canada passenger jets that are being retrofitted by aftermarket aerospace firms for carrying large containers in the main cabin area.

Cargo revenue fell 15% year over year in the fourth quarter to US$181 million on soft demand and lower yields, Air Canada reported. The three-month period represented an improvement from prior months as the downturn in freight transportation that gripped the air logistics industry for nearly 18 months began to ease. Full-year cargo revenue fell 27% to $253.7 million.

At the end of 2023, Canada’s flag carrier operated four more 767 freighters than at the end of 2022. Freighters were reintroduced at the company two years ago. Increased freighter operations to Central and South America and to Europe partially offset the year-over-year decline. Air Canada also enhanced its interline cooperation with Emirates SkyCargo, which allows customers to book interline cargo shipments through the Emirates SkyCargo flights, including between the Americas and Southeast Asia and India, through key European hubs. 

“We had a bit of a slower start in January, but as we look into February and beyond we’re starting to see volumes pick up and yields also pick up. And our 2024 assumption on cargo is more volume-driven than yield-driven. So we’re starting to see some positive indicators,” Galardo told analysts. “We’ve taken all the necessary measures to position ourselves to take advantage of the recovery. This includes strategically adjusting our freighter plan so that we can keep focusing on proven overall results for the long term and on maximizing cargo network value for our entire fleet.”

Air Canada in late September canceled an order with Boeing for two 777-200 production freighters because of the reversal in airfreight demand following the pandemic-fueled boom for air transport that lasted until early 2022. It then ordered 18 787-10 Dreamliners, including two that were swapped for the 777 freighters. Management, at the time, reiterated its commitment to operating freighters, saying that it needed to take a more measured approach to fleet expenditures and keep more cash available for other purposes.

Air Canada expects another leap in cargo business when the 787-10s begin entering the fleet in late 2025. But ongoing safety and manufacturing problems at Boeing could upset the delivery schedule. Production flaws have previously prevented customers from receiving Dreamliners on time.

“As we eventually receive the larger 787-10s, taking advantage of global cargo flows through our hubs will become an important lever for further diversifying revenue streams,” said Galardo. 

Air Canada performed well on cargo against its peers during the fourth quarter. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines saw cargo revenue slide 24% during the period, and Korean Air said its cargo sales fell nearly 29%. The percentage change in revenue at Air Canada was on par with the 14.8% decline at United Airlines. On a total dollar basis, Air Canada cargo revenue was less than that of the other carriers. The three major U.S. airlines are much larger than Air Canada but also do not have a dedicated cargo fleet. Delta was the closest to Air Canada at $188 million in revenue.

Overall, Air Canada generated $3.9 billion in revenue, up 11% from the prior year, during the final three months of 2023. But earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $386.4 million came in below expectations. On an adjusted basis, the company lost $32.6 million versus a loss of $162 million the year before. Higher wages, maintenance costs and flying volumes pushed expenses up 8%. Inflation is expected to increase costs another 4.5% to 5% in 2024, offset in part by productivity gains.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/20/2024 - 06:30

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