Uncategorized
Price analysis 10/20: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, TON, DOT, MATIC
Bitcoin price briefly pushed above the $30,000 level. Are altcoins poised to follow?
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $30,000 on Oct. 20, indicating…
Share this:
Bitcoin price briefly pushed above the $30,000 level. Are altcoins poised to follow?
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $30,000 on Oct. 20, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. Grayscale Investments filing a new application with the United States Securities and Exchanges Commission for a new spot Bitcoin ETF may have acted as a bullish trigger.
In another positive news for the cryptocurrency space, the SEC sought to dismiss all claims against Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and executive chair Chris Larsen. This will increase expectations that the regulator may slow down its attack on the cryptocurrency entities due to a string of recent setbacks.
As the market sentiment improves, Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) have been increasing their Bitcoin stockpile. Glassnode data shows that 76.2% of the available Bitcoin is locked up in long-term storage. This is likely to cause a supply crunch in the market, which is bullish for Bitcoin’s price.
Could Bitcoin maintain its momentum and rise higher? Will the altcoins also follow? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin broke and closed above the $28,143 resistance on Oct. 16 and the bulls held the level successfully during the retest on Oct. 17 and 18. This indicates that the buyers flipped the level into support.
The 20-day exponential moving average ($27,769) has turned up and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the overbought zone, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. The buyers will try to sustain the price above $30,000 and challenge the stiff overhead resistance zone between $31,000 and $31,805. Sellers are expected to protect this zone with vigor.
Time is running out for the bears. If they want to prevent the upside, they will have to quickly yank the price back below $28,143. If they do that, the BTC/USDT pair could plummet to the 50-day simple moving average ($26,882).
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) once again bounced off the strong support near $1,531 as seen from the long tail on the Oct. 19 candlestick. This shows that the bulls are fiercely defending the $1,531 support.
The repeated failure of the bears to break the $1,531 level is likely to attract buyers. The 50-day SMA ($1,613) may act as a hurdle but if crossed, the ETH/USDT pair could pick up momentum and attempt a rally to $1,746.
Although the downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to bears, the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the negative momentum is reducing. The bears will be back in the driver’s seat if they sink the price below $1,531.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) turned down from the downtrend line on Oct. 16 but a positive sign is that the bulls did not allow the price to dip below the 20-day EMA ($210). This indicates a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips.
Buyers will once again try to drive and maintain the price above the downtrend line. If they succeed, the BNB/USDT pair could accelerate to $235 and thereafter extend the rally to $250. The bears are likely to mount a strong defense at this level.
The important support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA and the next is $203. A break and close below this level will open the doors for a possible decline to the next major support at $183.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) turned down from the moving averages on Oct. 16 but the bears could not sink the price below the immediate support at $0.46. This suggests a lack of selling at lower levels.
The moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint. This suggests that the XRP/USDT pair may oscillate between $0.46 and $0.56 for some time. If the price stays above the moving averages, the pair may rally to the overhead resistance at $0.56.
On the contrary, if the price falls below the moving averages, it will increase the possibility of a drop to $0.46. The next trending move is likely to begin above $0.56 or below $0.41.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) soared and closed above the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern on Oct. 19, completing the bullish setup.
The buying continued on Oct. 20 and the bulls are trying to thrust the price above the immediate resistance at $27.12. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair could rise toward the pattern target of $32.81.
Usually, after breaking out of a major resistance, the price turns down and retests the breakout level. In this case, the price may return to test the neckline. If the price turns up from this level, the pair may start a new up-move. A break and close below $23 could shift the advantage back in favor of the bears.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) once again slipped to the strong support at $0.24 on Oct. 19 but the bulls held the level successfully. The positive divergence on the RSI indicates that the bearish momentum is reducing.
The price has reached the moving averages which are likely to act as a strong hurdle. If bulls overcome this resistance, the ADA/USDT pair could first rise to $0.27 and subsequently to $0.28. The bears are expected to fiercely guard this zone.
If the price turns down from $0.28, it will signal that the pair may form a range for a few days. On the downside, the bears will have to tug the price below $0.24 to indicate the resumption of the downtrend. The next support is at $0.22 and then at $0.20.
Dogecoin price analysis
The long tail on Dogecoin’s (DOGE) Oct. 19 candlestick shows that the bulls are aggressively buying in the zone between $0.055 and $0.06.
The bulls will have to shove the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.06) to indicate a comeback. That could clear the path for a potential rise to the overhead resistance at $0.07. This level may witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears but if the buyers prevail, the DOGE/USDT pair could surge to $0.08.
If the price turns down from the moving averages, it will indicate that the bears remain active at higher levels. A tumble below $0.055 will signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.
Related: Why is XRP price up today?
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1.98 on Oct. 12 but the bears could not capitalize on this weakness. The bulls purchased the dip and pushed the price back above $1.98 on Oct. 17.
The bears are trying to halt the recovery at $2.20 but a positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to slip back below the moving averages. This suggests that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying the dips.
If buyers kick the price above $2.20, the TON/USDT pair will complete a small inverted H&S pattern. The target objective of this setup is $2.47. This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down and slumps below $1.89.
Polkadot price analysis
Polkadot (DOT) has been in a strong downtrend. The bears tried to extend the decline on Oct. 19 but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels.
The relief rally is likely to reach the breakdown level of $3.91 where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense. If the price turns down from this level, it will indicate that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will again try to pull the price below $3.56 and start the next leg of the downtrend.
On the contrary, if the price breaks above $3.91, it will suggest the start of a stronger recovery. The DOT/USDT pair could then climb to the downtrend line. A break above $4.33 will signal a potential trend change.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) has been trading below the moving averages for the past few days, but the bears have failed to break the support at $0.49. This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels.
The positive divergence on the RSI also shows that the selling pressure could be reducing. If buyers catapult and sustain the price above the moving averages, the MATIC/USDT pair could surge to the overhead resistance at $0.60. This level may again attract selling by the bears. The pair is likely to swing between $0.49 and $0.60 for a while longer.
On the downside, $0.49 remains the key level to keep an eye on. If this level gives way, the pair may plummet to $0.45.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
cryptocurrency bitcoin btc xrp bnb etf
Uncategorized
February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
Share this:
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
unemployment pandemic unemploymentUncategorized
Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
Share this:
Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.
The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250
Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too
Total employment data
4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
- Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
- High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
- Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.
recession unemployment covid-19 fed federal reserve mortgage rates recession recovery unemploymentUncategorized
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Last month we though that the January…
Share this:
Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush.
What happened? Let's take a closer look.
On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.
Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.
Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K, a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!
Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.
In the past month the Biden department of goalseeking stuff higher before revising it lower, has revised the following data sharply lower:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 30, 2023
- Jobs
- JOLTS
- New Home sales
- Housing Starts and Permits
- Industrial Production
- PCE and core PCE
To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).
And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...
... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...
... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.
While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.
But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).
This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.
There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).
Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!
But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!
The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!
Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...
... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!
This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...
... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.
Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.
Wendy’s has a new deal for daylight savings time haters
Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Racial and Ethnic Wealth Inequality in the Post‑Pandemic Era
Wealth Inequality by Age in the Post‑Pandemic Era
Interest rates, the best it gets. It’s time to deploy cash
Is the biotech market rally real? Data suggest comeback in private, public markets
February Employment Situation
Shipping company files surprise Chapter 7 bankruptcy, liquidation
Wendy’s teases new $3 offer for upcoming holiday
Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast
-
Uncategorized2 weeks agoAll Of The Elements Are In Place For An Economic Crisis Of Staggering Proportions
-
Uncategorized1 month agoCathie Wood sells a major tech stock (again)
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoCalifornia Counties Could Be Forced To Pay $300 Million To Cover COVID-Era Program
-
Uncategorized2 weeks agoApparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoIndustrial Production Decreased 0.1% in January
-
International2 days agoWalmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program
-
International2 days agoEyePoint poaches medical chief from Apellis; Sandoz CFO, longtime BioNTech exec to retire
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoRFK Jr: The Wuhan Cover-Up & The Rise Of The Biowarfare-Industrial Complex